State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I live in PA-37 and I swear, I sort of like D. Raja.

LOL I'm going to hit a big fat (X) on that one.

The guy is clinically insane.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I really want Iovino to beat that pos Raja.

Tbf, I'd be quite shocked if she doesn't blow him out of the water.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!

Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

I’d imagine. This is the second time Raja is running for the seat, he lost the first time. Plus, he was whooped in a Wagner-2018 style for Allegheny commissioner in 2012.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls close in 20 minutes here in PGH. Praying for an Iovino win!

Me too dude, Iovino should pull it off but does she pull a decent margin?

I’d imagine. This is the second time Raja is running for the seat, he lost the first time. Plus, he was whooped in a Wagner-2018 style for Allegheny commissioner in 2012.

Wasn’t the Allegheny CE race after that? Cuz he lost the senate seat in 2012 (back when it was much more Republican in its voting habits than it is now, funny enough). He underperformed Mitt Romney of all people by like 15% lol

Something like that. Point is, Iovino should win the seat comfortably. I’m still nervous, but my worries are probably going to be for nothing.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Which of the candidates in the Chicago mayorial race is the Democrat. I expect them to win easily.

Well first off, it’s “nonpartisan”, but both the candidates are Democrats. Second off, we have a thread for the mayoral race.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Polls have closed in PA SD-37.

First off: an anecdotal turnout nugget that shows very good news for Iovino:

https://twitter.com/staceyvernallis/status/1113229432825810944?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The first votes are coming out of Pleasant Hills, which was Trump +6, Casey +9, and Wolf + 12, so this is very good for Iovino.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Team Raja not at all confident about tonight

https://twitter.com/johnwolperscfp/status/1113239254585552896?s=21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Team Raja not at all confident about tonight

https://twitter.com/johnwolperscfp/status/1113239254585552896?s=21

Could be trying to expectation-set. Just keep in mind.

Or they’re not confident they’re going to win.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

66/214

Iovino: 54.99% 8,335
Raja: 44.81% 6,791

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

{snip with quote pyramid}

Yeah, but Iovino doesn't need to match Lamb's special performance here lol.

Pretty much every pundit following the race on Twitter is saying Iovino is hitting her benchmarks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

42% in

Iovino: 54.20% 11,342
Raja: 45.63% 9,550

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yeah, Iovino probably has this.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Isn't Raja sort of a Brian Fitzpatrick suburban "moderate" type? Could explain why he might improve on Trump's numbers in this sort of district, though this is Allegheny county, a place with... quirky voting patterns to say the least.

NOOOOOOOOOO! He's more like Saccone. He ran attack ads comparing Iovino to AOC and Bernie.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

61% in, Iovino up 7% (2,200).

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71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow, Democrats have been on a tear in the Pittsburgh suburbs lately.

They have a real shot at flipping the Senate chamber next year.

Unless the GOP can recover here, PA will probably vote for the Democrat by a comfortable margin in 2020.

That also depends on who they nominate

Yang is probably the only one who could really screw up here.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A lot of people keep talking about the one township in Washington county that could really help Raja, but that only accounts for 8% of the votes in the entire district so IDK what's keeping them from calling it.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Apparently Peters Township hasn't reported anything yet. Very conservative suburb in Washington County. I'd expect the margin to narrow some more when those results start coming in, but I'm not sure there's enough there to clinch it for Raja.

Someone on Twitter said that Pam's Allegheny margin has to be below 1.5K for Washington to be able to clinch it for Raja, but her margin is at 3K.

EDIT: Now at 3.2K

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Iovino lead up to 3.9K

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Turnout could be at 30% which is pretty spectacular for a special election.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Raja has conceded.

D+1

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Iovino's lead (if holds at current) would mean a 13-point shift from Trump in the district and would solidify the D-trend of the PGH suburbs.