State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[libertpaulian]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

[libertpaulian]

The Texas one will be interesting, especially now that Texas is in a post-Beto environment.

[libertpaulian]

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

[libertpaulian]

Whoa.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1521662053462999040

[libertpaulian]

Rs have held this seat for almost 30 years. This is historic.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1612990199239446528

The Bitecofer Theory destroyed yet again.

[libertpaulian]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

[libertpaulian]

There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe and the Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.

lol nothing makes sense anymore

[libertpaulian]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

This result 1. wasn't all that amazing for Dems (their candidate did 2% worse than Luria in 2022) and more importantly 2. shouldn't be extrapolated outside of VA.

All true, but this is a special election in the dead of winter during the first full "normal" work week after the holiday season. People have just gotten over Christmas, Hanukkah, and/or NYE celebrations and are still trying to get back in a political mood.