State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Ebsy]

The Tennessee seat ended up being much closer than initial counts suggested, giving a big swing towards the Democrat:



Democrats getting 44% in both of these districts is a very good performance to say the least.

[Ebsy]

There are going to be two special elections for vacant Missouri House seats in November, 99 and 158, both Republican held.

99 is an interesting seat, stretching from one of the wealthiest areas of Missouri/St. Louis County, Manchester and Twin Oaks, down through more middle class Valley Park, which straddles the border with Jefferson County. The incumbent, Jean Evans, only won by 6 points last year and I would bet that Claire McCaskill carried the seat handily, while Trump won it only 49/44 against Romney's 55/43 victory. I imagine that Democrats are going to contest this seat heavily in their search for a way out of the super minority in the House. This seat covers terrain that has been moving towards the Democrats rapidly and is definitely one to watch.

[Ebsy]

The MO HD 99 is heating up for November. Both the Dems and GOP have recruited serious candidates and I got a call from the Dem group today asking me to canvass. Presumably the Republicans are mobilizing as well. Both candidates appear to be upper middle class professional wine moms which is pretty hilarious.

[Ebsy]

https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/st-louis-state-rep-bruce-franks-says-he-s-leaving/article_0ff62be2-8182-5a64-8cbd-8f48c51239e5.html

Representative Bruce Franks is resigning on the 31, currently represents a House district that covers most of Downtown St. Louis and some neighborhoods north. Heavily black and Democratic. Special election should be in November.

Hopefully the Hubbards don't manage to stage a come back here, one would think two seats on the Board of Aldermen would be enough.

[Ebsy]

It's crazy how many members have ditched the Missouri House of Reps. I knew things were bad but it must be a lot worse to serve than I thought.

[Ebsy]

Any pickup opportunities for either party?

MO-HD 99 is drawing a lot of resources from both parties. I would say Democrats are slightly favored to pick it up.

[Ebsy]

Strap in everyone, we have special elections tonight:

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1191152661506220033

[Ebsy]

BIG pickup for Missouri Democrats in West County.

[Ebsy]

Democrat leading in HD-28 against an extremely divided GOP field, think this heads to a runoff.

[Ebsy]

WRONG, Republicans did not win HD-99 in Missouri.

[Ebsy]

HD-99 contains Manchester, one of the tony suburbs in West St. Louis County notable for its strip malls which stretch for miles along Manchester as well as Valley Park, a more middle class Meramec River suburb that is protected by a big 'ole army corps of engineers levee. That it is now represented by a Democrat is frankly insane, but that's suburban trends for you.

[Ebsy]

I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?

Both did, yes. I believe by quite a bit as well, but I don't have the numbers on hand.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/GovWatchLLC/status/1216845572272873472

Half of the Democrats in Senate seats in Kansas City are getting appointed to state jobs. Both Holsman and Curls are senior (Curls the most senior member of the Senate) and Holsman was known to have wanted to extend term limits so he could run again, as both of them were term limited this year. If they are confirmed and resign their seats, this should set up two special elections this summer to fill out the rest of their terms. Both seats are extremely Democratic: 7th: 67-27 Clinton; 80-17 Clinton. The real contest will be within the democratic committees in the senatorial district, who will decide who the Democratic nominee will be for each seat. As they were already term limited there are likely quite a few house members that were already looking to move up, so I expect fierce competition for the nominations.

[Ebsy]

There really is a lot less attention on these special elections than the ones in 2017-2018. Democrats (and maybe Republicans as well) are a lot more focused on the Democratic primary and national politics.