State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Nyvin]

So Reschenthaler's PA seat is the big contest today, right?

That and the WI Supreme Court

[Nyvin]

Which of the candidates in the Chicago mayorial race is the Democrat. I expect them to win easily.

They're both Democrats, but Lightfoot is generally considered the progressive.

[Nyvin]

71% in

Virtually unchanged.

Iovino: 53.6% 20,095
Raja: 46.2% 17,329

That should be ball game.

It'll probably be called any minute now.

[Nyvin]

Washington county will narrow the race slightly, but 12 precincts aren't going to turn a 7 point margin.

[Nyvin]

Woohoo!  Nice victory for PA Dems!

[Nyvin]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.

Deloach winning in 2015 was probably a fluke more than anything.   Savannah is 55% black and quite urban obviously.

[Nyvin]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

It voted 43.01% Hillary and 53.21% Trump in 2016 if that helps.

[Nyvin]

In person early vote just dropped in hd34

https://mobile.twitter.com/brent_peabody/status/1415101138098171904

Welp, doesn't look like any upset is happening here tonight.

[Nyvin]

I *think* I'd rather be Rouse with 10k early ballots outstanding? Knock on wood

Also looks like the more Republican northern part of the district is reporting faster than the Democratic southern part.

[Nyvin]

Rouse pulls ahead by 623 votes.

[Nyvin]

Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.

2022 was mixed, a bad 2022 would have seen Spanberger lose. It does seem like Republicans have rebounded a bit in Hampton Roads and near Richmond but not at all in NoVa.

Hung Cao did incredible in VA-10, but I assume that's a fluke and not a new norm.

[Nyvin]

It's crazy how underdiscussed this race it, it will make or break the GOP trifecta in Virginia. Youngkin having another 2 years of a trifecta could make a huge difference in a future presidential run.

Youngkin never had a trifecta, and R's held this seat prior.  Rouse winning would make the Senate go from 21D-19R to 22D-18R.

[Nyvin]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

[Nyvin]

are Democrats favored in all three specials in Pennsylvania today?

HD-32 is Biden+26

HD-34 is Biden+62

HD-35 is Biden+16

Should all be safe D really,  35 would only flip in a major, big time failure by the PA Dems.

[Nyvin]

The progressive is in first as of now for the top two primary in San Diego's district 4 election for county supervisor

https://www.livevoterturnout.com/ENR/sandiegocaenr/17/en/Index_17.html

[Nyvin]

Wow, the Democrat won BIG with NPA's.

https://twitter.com/MappingFL/status/1747413155603525786

Impressive comeback for the Dem in FL.

[Nyvin]

Republicans held onto PA House District 139 in a special election tonight, although the results narrowed from 61%-39% in 2022 to 58%-42% tonight.

139 is in the northeast area too, east of Scranton.  Not a place someone would expect a Dem over-performance.