State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Mr.Phips:
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 30, 2022, 12:40:11 PM
Quote from: Spectator on November 29, 2022, 01:16:14 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on November 28, 2022, 07:12:14 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on November 28, 2022, 05:02:13 PM
Quote from: Spectator on November 14, 2022, 02:38:49 PM
Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.
This one will be really interesting to watch. Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps. However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state. The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA.
This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully. However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.
There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless. The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.
The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.
Did Biden win the new version of the (currently Dem-held) Eastern Shore seat? If so, by how much? Do we also have Youngkin numbers for it?
Update: I can see that it was a Youngkin blowout with 57.7%. Overall, there were 20 Yougkin seats and 20 McAuliffe seats in the VA state senate. There are exactly 21 seats where Youngkin did worse than his statewide margin (R+2). 2 of the Youngkin seats have Dem incumbents. I believe this Virginia Beach CD is the only McAuliffe seat that (formerly) had an R incumbent.
In the 2022 congressional elections, the Eastern Shore district was 54% R. Democratic candidates won 24 seats, winning the same 21 by more than their statewide margin (D+3).
Based on this, I do expect Dems to most likely hold the chamber.
Biden obviously won a couple more seats with the double digit statewide margin.
Trump very narrowly carried the Dem held Eastern Shore seat. The expectation was that if Kiggins didn’t beat Luria, Kiggins would have run for reelection in this district.
Oryxslayer:
So the NY Dems are moving against recent assembly candidate and presumptive victor in AD-49, Lester Chang. Prior to 2022, Chang was kinda a perennial GOP candidate, running twice for seats that covered lower Manhattan, his prior address. This year he ran for and marginally won a majority-Chinese seat in the Sunset Park/South Brooklyn area versus an Italian Democratic incumbent (note something similar happened in the state senate seat only the ethnicity of the parties candidates are swapped, flipping the results). During the campaign there were accusations that he had not moved to Brooklyn at least 1 year in advance of the vote, as per NY law, so legally could not stand.
Residency requirements are kinda BS, but the electorate clearly believes them important as seen by the recent 90-10 victory for stricter requirements in MD, and they vary by state depending on how important the voters of a specific state or their politicians deem them necessary. So it is in the Assembly's right to refuse to seat Chang and have Hochul call a Special Election, though awkwardly Chang could legally stand for said special and get seated if he wins (hopefully this time vs a Chinese Dem).
GeorgiaModerate:
Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:
Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting
Quote
Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.
The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.
Landslide Lyndon:
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on December 05, 2022, 08:56:33 AM
Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:
Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting
Quote
Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.
The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.
By now it's a surprise when a Republican doesn't do what he accuses others of doing.
GeorgiaModerate:
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