State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2020/10/08/democrats-push-to-win-texas-house-by-promising-massive-health-care-expansion/

With Abbott lead down to two Ds aim to take TX H

[EastwoodS]

There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.

Terrible mismanagement by the Republican state government!

[EastwoodS]

There’s a one hour wait to vote in Ft. Myers right now.

Terrible mismanagement by the Republican state government!

Awful yes

[Spectator]

Jen Kiggans’ election to Congress will trigger a special election in her old blue leaning state senate district in Virginia Beach. Democrat Virginia Beach city councilman and former football player Aaron Rouse has already announced and raised over $100k and looks like the early frontrunner.

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/local/virginia/virginia-senate-needs-special-election-fill-remainder-jen-kiggans-seat/291-4073077b-0e1d-42f7-9b53-77aebbe6f91e

The seat was Biden +9 but Youngkin +4. Funny enough it seems like it voted for Luria in the VA-02 race since the seat is a couple points bluer than VA Beach as a whole and Luria tied in Virginia Beach.

[Spectator]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1592271421971267585?s=20&t=qCeDf_pM-GX...

201 for majority (for some reason).

[GeorgiaModerate]

What happens if it ties 200-200?

[xavier110]

What happens if it ties 200-200?

Knowing NH, they probably hold a vote on best form of tie breaker, and then hold a public vote on who hosts the tie breaker, and then have another vote on whether they need to have a convention on tie breaking methods to reevaluate their options.

[Oryxslayer]

What happens if it ties 200-200?

Given that the people in this chamber are paid the equivalent of nothing and few are permeant politicians (what do you expect), probably defections. Not actually that uncommon here.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1592993741383815169?s=20&t=aJJ5EijmslLE...

Immediate special election in North Georgia likely - Safe R, Dems didn't run anyone here last week.


One of the recounts in NH has presently resulted in a Tie. One potential outcome if this persists is a special election, which may decide the chamber pending other recounts.


PA Dems presently lead in 112 seats, or a bare majority. However, one Dem died before election day, one is Summer Lee and going to Washington, and one is set to become the new Lt. Gov. All three represent(ed) deep blue east Allegheny seats, so after the inaugural session Reps will have a few weeks with more state reps until the seats are filled.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1593333002062422023?s=20&t=Be6FgXZ3SO7...

Alert for potential special in western MI (Muskegon and northern lakeshore). Won by 5.6%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1595434685764599808
D-trending seat, but probably still out of reach at this time, Trump+4 in 2020 (I imagine Evers lost it by a similar margin based on the areas.)

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1595434685764599808
D-trending seat, but probably still out of reach at this time, Trump+4 in 2020 (I imagine Evers lost it by a similar margin based on the areas.)

Trump +4 seat might be doable with appropriate turnout patterns. Any clear candidates? There is one D state House incumbent who lives in the district, perhaps they would be interested.

[Skill and Chance]

NH found an error in the recount that flipped a 20-some vote Republican lead to a 1 vote Democratic lead.  It is back to a 20-some vote Republican lead and this was just upheld in court.  With this, it appears R's have secured 201 seats and outright control of the chamber.

[Skill and Chance]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

[Mr.Phips]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

[Skill and Chance]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

Oh, interesting.  I figured they would force the new guy/gal into the most competitive seat in the area.

[Spectator]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

[Skill and Chance]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA. 

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

Did Biden win the new version of the (currently Dem-held) Eastern Shore seat?  If so, by how much?  Do we also have Youngkin numbers for it?

Update: I can see that it was a Youngkin blowout with 57.7%.  Overall, there were 20 Yougkin seats and 20 McAuliffe seats in the VA state senate.  There are exactly 21 seats where Youngkin did worse than his statewide margin (R+2).  2 of the Youngkin seats have Dem incumbents.  I believe this Virginia Beach CD is the only McAuliffe seat that (formerly) had an R incumbent.   

In the 2022 congressional elections, the Eastern Shore district was 54% R.   Democratic candidates won 24 seats, winning the same 21 by more than their statewide margin (D+3).

Based on this, I do expect Dems to most likely hold the chamber. 

Biden obviously won a couple more seats with the double digit statewide margin.   

[Mr.Phips]

Luria endorsed Rouse today at his campaign launch, so I think it’s a safe bet he’s the Dem nominee.

This one will be really interesting to watch.  Because the new state senate map unwound a clearly gerrymandered seat that linked up several college towns in western VA, Dems will need to pick up at least one seat elsewhere to hold the chamber on the new maps.  However, there are 3-4 good opportunities to do this and the new median seat is left of the state.  The best 2 opportunities are in Richmond and western NOVA.  

This special election takes place on the old maps, which should favor the Dem pretty meaningfully.  However, if the Dem becomes the incumbent, they will have to win a true toss up seat in November 2023 to stay.

There is a new Biden + 20 Virginia Beach seat that I believe the Dem nominee said he is running in regardless.  The true tossup seat is the Delmarva peninsula seat that Lynwood Lewis holds.

The special is taking place under the old lines, which was Biden +10. The general will be in a Biden +20 seat.

Did Biden win the new version of the (currently Dem-held) Eastern Shore seat?  If so, by how much?  Do we also have Youngkin numbers for it?

Update: I can see that it was a Youngkin blowout with 57.7%.  Overall, there were 20 Yougkin seats and 20 McAuliffe seats in the VA state senate.  There are exactly 21 seats where Youngkin did worse than his statewide margin (R+2).  2 of the Youngkin seats have Dem incumbents.  I believe this Virginia Beach CD is the only McAuliffe seat that (formerly) had an R incumbent.    

In the 2022 congressional elections, the Eastern Shore district was 54% R.   Democratic candidates won 24 seats, winning the same 21 by more than their statewide margin (D+3).

Based on this, I do expect Dems to most likely hold the chamber.  

Biden obviously won a couple more seats with the double digit statewide margin.  

Trump very narrowly carried the Dem held Eastern Shore seat.  The expectation was that if Kiggins didn’t beat Luria, Kiggins would have run for reelection in this district.

[Oryxslayer]

So the NY Dems are moving against recent assembly candidate and presumptive victor in AD-49, Lester Chang. Prior to 2022, Chang was kinda a perennial GOP candidate, running twice for seats that covered lower Manhattan, his prior address. This year he ran for and marginally won a majority-Chinese seat in the Sunset Park/South Brooklyn area versus an Italian Democratic incumbent (note something similar happened in the state senate seat only the ethnicity of the parties candidates are swapped, flipping the results). During the campaign there were accusations that he had not moved to Brooklyn at least 1 year in advance of the vote, as per NY law, so legally could not stand.

Residency requirements are kinda BS, but the electorate clearly believes them important as seen by the recent 90-10 victory for stricter requirements in MD, and they vary by state depending on how important the voters of a specific state or their politicians deem them necessary. So it is in the Assembly's right to refuse to seat Chang and have Hochul call a Special Election, though awkwardly Chang could legally stand for said special and get seated if he wins (hopefully this time vs a Chinese Dem).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:


Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting

Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.

The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Regarding the Jan. 3 special election to replace the late Georgia House Speaker David Ralston:


Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting]Talk show host and Georgia House candidate accused of illegal voting

Conservative North Georgia talk show host Brian K. Pritchard, a candidate for the state House who rails against election fraud, allegedly voted illegally nine times while serving a felony sentence in a $33,000 forgery and theft case, state officials say.

The Georgia attorney general’s office wrote Thursday that Pritchard broke state law each time he voted before his sentence was completed, according to a filing with the Office of State Administrative Hearings. State law prohibits felons from voting.

By now it's a surprise when a Republican doesn't do what he accuses others of doing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1600596011377954829