State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131202 times)
Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #925 on: March 08, 2022, 07:48:06 PM »
« edited: March 08, 2022, 08:21:25 PM by Minnesota Mike »

A couple elections tonight in Florida. SD-33 and HD-88. Both are heavily Democratic and majority Black.

With most of the vote in

SD-33:

Rosalind Osgood (DEM) 80.65%
Joseph C. Carter (REP) 19.35%

HD-88:

Jervonte "Tae" Edmonds (DEM) 80.02%
Guarina Torres (REP) 19.98%

Both would be a small improvement for Democrats on the Biden/Trump numbers.

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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #926 on: March 22, 2022, 08:49:09 PM »

Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1       Brian A. Cunningham    Democratic            1848            62.18%   
 
2       Mesidor Azor    Republican                        63    2.12%   
 
3       Mesidor Azor    Conservative                        25    0.84%   
 
4       Jelanie Deshong    Working Families     1028    34.59%   
 
5       WRITE-IN                                                       8    0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #927 on: March 26, 2022, 10:57:26 PM »

Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.
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« Reply #928 on: March 28, 2022, 10:16:30 AM »

Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.

There has been quite a backlash to the tactics of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (from New Kings Democrats etc) and the perceived underhanded way in which they hand out nominations in local specials (which contribute to a huge % of how people end up in Assembly/Senate). In a race with turnout this low, the activist groups probably comprise a big % of overall votes.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #929 on: March 29, 2022, 11:12:36 AM »

Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.


I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.

There has been quite a backlash to the tactics of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (from New Kings Democrats etc) and the perceived underhanded way in which they hand out nominations in local specials (which contribute to a huge % of how people end up in Assembly/Senate). In a race with turnout this low, the activist groups probably comprise a big % of overall votes.


Pretty much this ^. Here's an article that lays it out: https://www.brooklynpaper.com/brian-cunningham-democratic-nomination-43/
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Matty
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« Reply #930 on: March 29, 2022, 09:42:19 PM »

Wtf

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« Reply #931 on: March 29, 2022, 09:49:33 PM »

Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #932 on: March 29, 2022, 10:54:17 PM »

Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

My guess is more the latter though maybe he could've come closer with the black vote than usual. The thing is there's a notable chunk the black electorate well above 50% who in this day and age will never vote GOP no matter what.
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« Reply #933 on: March 29, 2022, 11:08:43 PM »

Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

My guess is more the latter though maybe he could've come closer with the black vote than usual. The thing is there's a notable chunk the black electorate well above 50% who in this day and age will never vote GOP no matter what.
Probably the closest example we'll get is Joseph Cao's victory in LA-02 in 2008. Cao probably holds the record for Republican Representative who represented the most Democratic district of the 21st century and possibly since when the South was crazy and unpredictable, but regardless for those too young to remember it (wow I feel old), the Democratic incumbent Bill Jefferson was incredibly blatantly corrupt (famous for the FBI finding a brick of cash in his freezer) and the Democrats tried to oust him in 2006, but he won the runoff against another more liberal Democrat by appealing to Republicans on cultural issues since he was one of those socially conservative black Democrats and though his opponent was black too she didn't really appeal to the community and won on a bizarre black + Republican coalition. In 2008 the Democrats kind of gave up, but in a strange twist Hurricane Gustav postponed the primary which was actually held election day, and the runoff after that, Jefferson was facing the Republican Cao so most people assumed he would win again.

However Cao was able to narrowly win. And the precinct results are fascinating, Cao not only won the Republican areas but also the white liberal areas in New Orleans that voted heavily for Obama, and in the predominately black wards...turnout fell through the floor. One speculated theory is Jefferson would've pulled through on Election Day, but since this was held about a month after Obama's victory, the sort of tribalism that made black voters support him no longer applied and they didn't care about the "he's a crook but at least he's one of us" sort of mindset too much. Not many of them voted for Cao, but many of them just stayed home no longer caring about Jefferson enough to bail him out. Of course Cao lost big in 2010 to Cedric Richmond.

Again we need precinct results to really see what happened here.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #934 on: March 29, 2022, 11:48:32 PM »

Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #935 on: March 30, 2022, 12:21:25 AM »

Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.

Yikes. I see the whole "R's aren't improving in special elections" talking point based on a few cherry-picked races implying that an R wave is unlikely just crashed and burned tonight.
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Shaula🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #936 on: March 30, 2022, 03:46:13 AM »

Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.

Yikes. I see the whole "R's aren't improving in special elections" talking point based on a few cherry-picked races implying that an R wave is unlikely just crashed and burned tonight.
I think extrapolating from any state legislature special election is a little silly. There have been wildly different results in seemingly every race.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #937 on: March 30, 2022, 10:49:31 AM »

Wtf



Welp that's it then. Uniform swing means Republicans will have around 400 seats in the House and sweep the Senate & Governor races.

Yikes. I see the whole "R's aren't improving in special elections" talking point based on a few cherry-picked races implying that an R wave is unlikely just crashed and burned tonight.
I think extrapolating from any state legislature special election is a little silly. There have been wildly different results in seemingly every race.

Yep. The aggregated trend is what matters most. That is on the Republican's side this cycle, even with lots of sporadic results. A 90% win is pretty insane though especially for a district like that, would love to know how that happened. Obviously, that's not going to be replicated in any major races for November.
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Schiff for Senate
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« Reply #938 on: March 30, 2022, 01:30:17 PM »
« Edited: March 30, 2022, 01:51:17 PM by CentristRepublican »

Some quick research: The Republican is black (usually doesn't matter but if he has some ties to the local black community that could help in a very low turnout special election) and he owns a few car dealerships meaning he has high name recognition with his name everywhere on billboards in the area...and of course it was a dirt low turnout election the Democrats probably didn't even try for considering it was still a Safe R seat. But winning over 90% in a district that's over 30% black means he either actually won the black vote or turnout utterly cratered in heavily black areas. We'll have to look at the precinct results to see.

I think literally that - that the Democrats didn't bother fielding a candidate here - has to explain it. I'm guessing if he won over 90% and outperformed by 62 points, that has to be more than just a strong GOP candidate. He probably didn't have a Democratic opponent and instead faced an Independent, Green and/or Libertarian who scraped together a few votes.

EDIT: Okay, although that would make a lot of sense, it's not what happened. Per 270toWin, there was in fact a Democratic nominee, but somehow, she won just 9.7% of the vote (to Mike Reichenbach's 90.1% - per 270toWin, it's 90.3%, but I'm going with what Ballotpedia said, which is that he won just 90.1% and that 14 votes were for write-in candidates). It's also an interesting point that the GOP primary was competitive but that the Democratic primary had just one candidate. Also, one of my other suspicions was confirmed - the Democratic candidate (Suzzane La Rochelle) was white. I'm guessing this meant that a lot of African-American Democrats decided not to support a white Democrat over a black Republican and probably they mostly stayed home while more than usual went for Reichenbach.
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Canis
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« Reply #939 on: April 20, 2022, 03:08:20 AM »
« Edited: April 20, 2022, 03:30:30 AM by Canis »

Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #940 on: April 23, 2022, 10:46:22 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2022, 03:40:29 PM by smoltchanov »

Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!

Haney is (of course, it's San Francisco after all) a progressive, but in this particular race he was "less progressive" then his opponent. As i said above - it's San Francisco: you seldom get anyone  but "progressive",  from it... In distant past even it's Republican officeholders (of course - there are none today) tended to be progressive too.... (best example being former congressman Richard Welch, who was never opposed by Democrats in his SF district, and, generally, was much closer to pragmatic liberal Democrats of his time then to typical Republicans)
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MaxQue
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« Reply #941 on: April 23, 2022, 11:17:46 AM »

Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!

Haney is (of course, it's San Francisco after all) a progressive, but in this particular race he was "less progressive" then his opponent. As i said above - it's San Francisco: you seldom get anyone  but "progressive",  from it... In distant past even it's Republican officeholders (of course - there are none todey) tended to be progressive too.... (best example being former congressman Richard Welch, who was never opposed by Democrats in his SF district, and, generally, was much closer to pragmatic liberal Democrats of his time then to typical Republicans)

From what I heard, the main defining trait of Campos was not being progressive or not, but being a NIMBY.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #942 on: April 23, 2022, 01:08:30 PM »

Progressive Matt Haney has won the special election for AD 17 in a landslide


Im very happy about this after Calcare was killed it was decided that progressives would organize for pro Calcare candidates in the assembly and senate to get a majority of votes to pass it next year and this is our first victory hopefully we have several more in November!

Haney is (of course, it's San Francisco after all) a progressive, but in this particular race he was "less progressive" then his opponent. As i said above - it's San Francisco: you seldom get anyone  but "progressive",  from it... In distant past even it's Republican officeholders (of course - there are none todey) tended to be progressive too.... (best example being former congressman Richard Welch, who was never opposed by Democrats in his SF district, and, generally, was much closer to pragmatic liberal Democrats of his time then to typical Republicans)

From what I heard, the main defining trait of Campos was not being progressive or not, but being a NIMBY.

Yeah, but most still considered him to be more "ideologically progressive", while Haney was rather a sort of "pragmatic progressive"...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #943 on: May 03, 2022, 08:09:33 PM »



Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #944 on: May 03, 2022, 08:19:09 PM »



Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #945 on: May 03, 2022, 08:25:21 PM »

Whoa.

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #946 on: May 03, 2022, 08:32:27 PM »

Whoa.



Wait, isn't this the a**hole who told his daughter that if she was being raped she just needs to "lie back and enjoy it"?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #947 on: May 03, 2022, 08:33:59 PM »



Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?


Reminder that this election is meaningless, given that the legislature does not sit until after the November vote. Though now there is rumors of a tiny special session for abortion trash laws, but the net impact is still the same.
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #948 on: May 03, 2022, 08:49:10 PM »

Whoa.


This is the guy who told his daughter to just lay back and enjoy it if she was being raped, pretty obvious reason why.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #949 on: May 03, 2022, 08:54:07 PM »
« Edited: May 03, 2022, 08:59:42 PM by Josh Shapiro for Governor »

Boom:

DEM pickup.



ET is saying this district is going to be Biden +10 after redistricting, so she has a good chance at keeping this even after the midterms.
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