State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Duke of York]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

By what margin did it vote Biden ?

[Mr.Phips]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

By what margin did it vote Biden ?

He won it by about 30 points.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

By what margin did it vote Biden ?

He won it by about 30 points.

It's easy to forget just how rapid the realignment in new england has been in some places.

[Matty]

Is there a particular reason dems couldn’t crack this seat in previous cycles?

[Not Me, Us]

Is there a particular reason dems couldn’t crack this seat in previous cycles?

It had an R incumbent since 1998, back when the MAGOP was much stronger. I assume it was incumbency advantage and it being a non-polarized local office. Brad Hill, the former incumbent, was appointed by Baker to a state position, so he was probably quite moderate, but I don't know for sure.

[Roll Roons]

Is there a particular reason dems couldn’t crack this seat in previous cycles?

Massive ticket splitting is still fairly common in New England. There's a GOP State Rep in Vermont who won by 16 points even as Biden got nearly 80% of the vote in her district.

For this seat, I think the previous incumbent was personally popular and went unopposed most of the time. Democrats hold such huge legislative majorities in Massachusetts that they probably felt there was no point in challenging him.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's pretty stunning how New England continues to produce some pretty good results for the Democrats in specials this cycle despite the underperformance everywhere else.

[It’s so Joever]

New England consistently has been the most based part of the country.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Wqlk_/status/1468400661008203776

Overperform of Trump 2016 as well.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1470944901676290050?t=lUdlJ5rAUCfor66j0cz...

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/Thorongil16/status/1470944901676290050?t=lUdlJ5rAUCfor66j0cz...

Total turnout for this district was 1,088 people. In 2020, turnout was at 5,622 people despite there being no opposition in the race. In 2018, turnout was at 5,088 people.

This is only 19.4% of last year's showing. I'd chalk the result up to that, first and foremost.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One upcoming one in Washington:

https://twitter.com/MichaelJStern1/status/1472392463058972674

Both Reps are Democrats and this is a seat Biden won by double digits.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.

Yes; in addition to the strong education leading to ticket-splitting, the strong tradition of parochialism means it's hard to read even state trends into these races.

I'm in that district now, my aunt voted for the democrat despite being pro-life, anti-weed whiel my uncle who's an Elon musk stan just didn't vote. Apparently the democrat canidate was considered kinda weird by the residents.

[LtNOWIS]

VA-HD-89 set for a January 11 special election. Safe blue seat in Hampton Roads, being vacated by former AG candidate Jay Jones.

https://www.pilotonline.com/government/virginia/vp-nw-democrat-nominee-89th-house-district-20211222-imfswbabvvbrzbpxh6p3br7xju-story.html

[Boobs]

Lorena Gonzalez CA-HD-80 is resigning to take a job with the AFL-CIO. Safe Dem district (Gonzalez won with 72% in 2020) but also around 70% Hispanic, so margin might be interesting.

[Unelectable Bystander]

It sounds like there are a few special elections tonight. Some of them are non-competitive districts in Florida, but one election in Maine looking interesting. It’s a mostly white 58-41 dem district that might give a good sense of the environment. Anybody know if this is true?

[Minnesota Mike]

It sounds like there are a few special elections tonight. Some of them are non-competitive districts in Florida, but one election in Maine looking interesting. It’s a mostly white 58-41 dem district that might give a good sense of the environment. Anybody know if this is true?

Jim Boyle (D): 57%
Tim Thorsen (R): 38%
Suzanne Phillips (I): 5%

https://bangordailynews.com/2022/01/11/politics/former-gubernatorial-candidate-easily-holds-portland-area-legislative-seat-for-democrats/

[Politics Fan]

Democrats held D+9 CT LD 144 56-44 today

https://www.fox61.com/amp/article/news/local/fairfield-county/democrat-hubert-delany-wins-144th-state-representative-seat-in-house-connecticut/520-7d5bc4d6-aab3-4b79-b963-e280caf28f1c

[Unelectable Bystander]

What are the expectations for tonight’s mayoral and senate races?

[Boobs]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

[Roll Roons]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I'm sure the turnout was very low, but that's absolutely insane. Special elections really can be weird. Who said all politics was national?

[Boobs]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I'm sure the turnout was very low, but that's absolutely insane. Special elections really can be weird. Who said all politics was national?

The winning R got only about 2/3rds of the total GOP primary turnout for the special while the Democrat turned out about 2.5x the Democrat primary. Reportedly the Repub didn't campaign past the primary.

[Oryxslayer]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

I saw this in my twitter feed. Yes this is a Dem trending part of the state, but I suspect the root cause of the result is the Dugger's poisoning local politics with the trial, rightful scandal, and media coverage. Which is why the R primary got at lot more votes then the R now - people wanted him away from their lives.

Also, the other major race of the night, OKC mayor, is a landslide for incumbent David Holt. This in unsurprising given the token nature of the three opposition candidates.  

[Brittain33]

This is going to mess up the charts tracking swing since 2020.