State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131543 times)
Skunk
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« Reply #850 on: October 13, 2021, 10:56:12 AM »

This country deserves to fail.
Every single American deserves what is coming, including all of us.
Please go outside. A Democrat losing some random special election in Iowa is not going to cause the downfall of America.
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S019
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« Reply #851 on: October 13, 2021, 01:30:54 PM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

It’s still hilarious because those are the 'low-propensity Republicans' Abby Finkenauer/(IA) Democrats are counting on to say home in 2022 "without Trump on the ballot" (as if IA's Republican trend totally doesn’t predate Trump or any other R nominee wouldn’t have easily won the state or whatever).

Oh I agree, the "low propensity Republicans" stuff was always a meme, if anything there'll be complacent "low propensity" Democrats who will stay home, because they don't feel a need to vote (this happened to Dems in 2010 and 2014, and happened to the GOP in 2018).
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #852 on: October 14, 2021, 12:07:12 PM »

Oh I agree, the "low propensity Republicans" stuff was always a meme, if anything there'll be complacent "low propensity" Democrats who will stay home, because they don't feel a need to vote (this happened to Dems in 2010 and 2014, and happened to the GOP in 2018).

I’m not entirely sold on any "low-propensity Democrats" narrative either. I feel like high-turnout midterm elections will increasingly be the rule rather than exception and both the R base and D base will be fairly engaged going into 2022, which will seriously reduce potential for R gains in rapidly D-trending areas but also make both the Senate and the House something of an uphill battle for Democrats. While many overstate how high-propensity the D base has become (and rule out the possibility of even slight R gains with more reliable/suburban/college-educated voters, many of whom are still swing voters and not Democrats) and/or exaggerate how "unreliable" the D base was in 2010 and 2014 (or 2013, as McAuliffe's win that year illustrates), the overall CW that the D base has become more reliable even in off-year/midterm elections is probably true, and I’d argue that many of the high-profile special elections (NM-1, GA runoffs, less so CA because of the all-mail system) have confirmed this. However, the flip side of this is that we also haven’t seen Republicans lose ground (compared to 2020) in most Biden-era special elections, and there’s every reason to believe that the November elections will see higher turnout than the special elections.

My issue was more that the "low-propensity Republicans/Trumpists" theory was particularly ludicrous when applied to the analysis of Iowa elections given that Ernst actually did better in 2014 than 2020 (that state swung more sharply to the right than any other Obama state/swing state in 2014), and that was without Trump being a factor in a year when Democrats held up very well in other D-leaning states at the federal level. This 'low-propensity Trump voters' narrative also completely downplays a host of other factors which would more than compensate for a modest drop-off in "Trumpist turnout" in most cases (party out of the White House being more engaged than when they are in control of the White House, state's general rightward shift continuing unabated, the serious decline in Biden's approval numbers, the probability of slight R gains in suburban areas similar to D gains in non-college-educated areas in 2018 vs. 2016, etc.). Also, the vast majority of Trump 2020 voters in IA (and elsewhere) aren’t "Trumpists" so much as they are Republicans, i.e., they’re largely loyal to Trump but also voted for Romney in 2012.
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ChineseConservative
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« Reply #853 on: October 14, 2021, 12:17:59 PM »

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.
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« Reply #854 on: October 16, 2021, 01:46:54 AM »

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes and a public health burden.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #855 on: October 16, 2021, 11:53:50 PM »

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes

Ethanol might be another argument for/against providing subsidies to the small family corn farmers in places such as Iowa.

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Person Man
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« Reply #856 on: October 19, 2021, 05:18:54 AM »

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.

This would amount to a regressive benefit that hurts poorer Americans, as it would only exacerbate the problem of poorer Americans spending a larger percentage of their income on groceries.

Keep the farm subsidies that benefit the GOP farmers and in turn benefit low income Democrat voters. win win.

The left-wing/liberaltarian argument against corn subsidies is that they are used to grow excess corn that is used to produce high fructose corn syrup (HFCS), which is added to many cheap processed foods and is bad for you if you eat too much of it (like if you are lower income and live in a food desert). HFCS has been linked to higher rates of diabetes and obesity, causing worse health outcomes

Ethanol might be another argument for/against providing subsidies to the small family corn farmers in places such as Iowa.



Poor people can’t afford doctors and taxpayers can’t afford programs for their exasperated medical conditions.
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Gracile
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« Reply #857 on: October 26, 2021, 01:52:11 PM »

There's a special election today in the Cheshire 9 house district in New Hampshire (a Biden +15.8/Clinton +11.1 district).
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Matty
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« Reply #858 on: October 26, 2021, 04:33:57 PM »

There's a special election today in the Cheshire 9 house district in New Hampshire (a Biden +15.8/Clinton +11.1 district).

I am guessing the margin will be around clinton's

was this a romney district?
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #859 on: October 26, 2021, 06:45:50 PM »

Youngkin is done.

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Matty
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« Reply #860 on: October 26, 2021, 06:46:09 PM »

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?
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Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #861 on: October 26, 2021, 06:48:56 PM »

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?
New hampshire backlash against the governing R trifecta ?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #862 on: October 26, 2021, 07:58:09 PM »

Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all. Still, Sununu is quite popular in New Hampshire.

I am saying it right now: If Hassan wins, I will leave the forum forever.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #863 on: October 26, 2021, 08:25:20 PM »

Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all.

But this didn’t happen at all in IA, where Republicans performed very well in that special election (and arguably outperformed expectations). It’s crazy how much IA and NH have diverged since 2012 after voting so similarly five presidential elections in a row.

NH-SEN 2010 was arguably a more anomalous result than IN-PRES 2008 (which was at least partly foreshadowed by the 2006 House gains in IN).
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #864 on: October 27, 2021, 06:28:43 AM »

Isn't this like the 2nd or 3rd smaller local NH election where Dems have outperformed this year?
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #865 on: October 27, 2021, 10:06:43 AM »

Maybe the low-propensity Trump supporter hypothesis might have some merit after all.

But this didn’t happen at all in IA, where Republicans performed very well in that special election (and arguably outperformed expectations). It’s crazy how much IA and NH have diverged since 2012 after voting so similarly five presidential elections in a row.

NH-SEN 2010 was arguably a more anomalous result than IN-PRES 2008 (which was at least partly foreshadowed by the 2006 House gains in IN).
Maybe it’s all the angry NH women voting D.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #866 on: November 01, 2021, 05:06:40 AM »

Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?
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Politics Fan
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« Reply #867 on: November 01, 2021, 08:07:26 PM »

Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?
It’s literally impossible for reps to win one as the Senate isn’t up. Assuming that Dems have about a 50/50 chance to retain the Gov mansion and HOD along with those outcomes being highly correlated. I would say prob 50/50 assuming both outcomes are highly correlated.
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BigSkyBob
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« Reply #868 on: November 02, 2021, 07:20:50 AM »

Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?

Barring party switches, or resignations zero for Republicans inasmuch as the State Senate does not stand for election this year. The Democratic trifecta isn't looking too good either.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #869 on: November 02, 2021, 07:31:35 AM »
« Edited: November 02, 2021, 07:37:56 AM by lfromnj »

Can someone give me a quick break down of what the chances are of VA having a trifecta? And aka having voting restrictions passed?

State legislature can't flip as state senate isn't up till 2023. Rs would either have to hope for a special  and win it or wait till 2023 with updated maps. Issue is the house map will be updated too, most of the house gerrymander is useless by now with dummymanders in NOVA and the Richmond/Hampton roads being redrawn anyway but I guess Rs still get 2 seats from Albemarle which is triple split after the Charlottesville sink and the Blacksburg gerrymander. Dems do hold the Blacksburg  seat as of now though but it is a key district for an R trifecta. Contractions in NOVA won't help Rs either. There is a bit of a dummymander in areas like PWC where the GOP tried a 4R 1 D map which held as 3 R 2 D till 2017 so you can still carve out reasonably winnable seats for the GOP near Gainesville and in between Manassas and I95 so that could help a bit in that the new seats would be winnable although a new seat would also have to come into Loudoun as well.   Generally 2.5 seats will be added to NOVA  which could theoretically still be winnable for Rs if you draw PWC in a R favorable manner but not incredibly so.
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Person Man
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« Reply #870 on: November 02, 2021, 07:38:55 AM »

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?
New hampshire backlash against the governing R trifecta ?

1) local demographic change or 2) New Hampshire might be the Delaware, Colorado, or Nevada of the 2022 cycle.
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« Reply #871 on: November 02, 2021, 01:41:45 PM »

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #872 on: November 02, 2021, 01:51:30 PM »

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.
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AMB1996
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« Reply #873 on: November 02, 2021, 02:01:45 PM »

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.

Yes; in addition to the strong education leading to ticket-splitting, the strong tradition of parochialism means it's hard to read even state trends into these races.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #874 on: November 02, 2021, 10:44:37 PM »

Maine House District 86 special election

Democrat LaRochelle elected to fill Augusta-area House seat previously held by Republican

Given that House District 86 (which will gain some territory to become House District 59 for next year's primary and general elections) is entirely in the city of Augusta, the use of "area" in the headline is curious.
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