State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131265 times)
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
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« Reply #825 on: September 14, 2021, 08:38:14 PM »

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into a single special election with very low turnout.
Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.
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Devils30
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« Reply #826 on: September 14, 2021, 08:41:32 PM »

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

That’s a pretty weak win for GOP. If trends continue it might help Rs with seats like PA-8, WI-3 but screw them over in Georgia, Arizona and metro Philly, Milwaukee. I wonder if Dem $ is best going to offensive opportunities in Cali, that along with new NY maps seem best chance.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #827 on: September 14, 2021, 08:45:09 PM »

Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.

Can’t emphasize enough that that also has a lot do with the Democratic base becoming increasingly affluent and high-propensity. Even larger patterns in these state legislative elections are only worth cautiously reading into if there’s no large disparity in the turnout of the two parties (especially relative to what we can expect from a regular November election).
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Devils30
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« Reply #828 on: September 14, 2021, 08:50:26 PM »

Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.

Can’t emphasize enough that that also has a lot do with the Democratic base becoming increasingly affluent and high-propensity. Even larger patterns in these state legislative elections are only worth cautiously reading into if there’s no large disparity in the turnout of the two parties (especially relative to what we can expect from a regular November election).

Republicans at some point should ditch the tax cuts for the rich and be a real working class party. The right politician could pull it off, but would need to ditch the white nationalism without ditching social conservatism.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #829 on: September 15, 2021, 07:34:05 AM »

Hmmm, slight dem overperformance from 2020.

not much to read into.

It's funny how every time a Dem does better than expected, it's "not much to read into" but every time they do worse than expected it's "DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!!"

I'm honestly shocked it was basically the same result as 2020 Prez and actually better for Dems than the 2020 house race. Looks like the suburban backlash against Reps is still real.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #830 on: September 15, 2021, 07:52:25 AM »

In the meantime...

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Person Man
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« Reply #831 on: September 27, 2021, 07:40:21 AM »

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into single special elections with very low turnout.
Probably but that’s no fun.

So basically an election that looks a lot like a reverse of 2020 where an unpopular incumbent is beaten, but where the victory of Pyrrhic because of a new and underappreciated openness to vote differently within neglected parts of the challenger's base.

In 2020, Biden was supposed to sweep the coastal south and dominate down-ballot only to barely win because a lot of people who Republicans relied on not showing did show up to vote for them. In 2022 and 2024 a lot of people Republicans think will come out in droves for them, come out for Democrats instead. The result will be a weak R congress that either get overturned in a D reelection or is never "complete" until there is a R trifecta.
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Matty
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« Reply #832 on: September 28, 2021, 10:54:20 PM »

big yikes for dems out of the HD118 special election jungle in texas tonight

gop vote share: 50.34%
dem vote share: 49.66%

biden won this place by 15 points in 2020
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #833 on: September 28, 2021, 10:59:58 PM »

It seems like Democrats consistently underperform in Texas specials.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #834 on: September 29, 2021, 01:16:13 PM »

Why do Democrats always do horribly in special elections in Texas, no matter what the national environment is?
They lost what looked to be an easy seat even in 2018.
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Matty
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« Reply #835 on: October 12, 2021, 03:33:28 PM »

There is an iowa special election today

Hd29
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BoiseBoy
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« Reply #836 on: October 12, 2021, 03:42:45 PM »

There is an iowa special election today

Hd29
This seat went to Breckenridge (D) by 3.1 in 2020, after a 17.6 DEM win in 2018. I would not expect them to hold onto this seat. It went Trump +12.3 to Trump +15.9.
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Matty
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« Reply #837 on: October 12, 2021, 08:43:29 PM »

Republican got 60% of the vote



Yikes
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #838 on: October 12, 2021, 08:46:57 PM »

This country deserves to fail.
Every single American deserves what is coming, including all of us.
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Devils30
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« Reply #839 on: October 12, 2021, 08:51:16 PM »

It's just one piece of the puzzle. But the idea that Wisconsin is going red, Georgia blue seems strengthened by 2021 elections. IA is a bad omen for Ds in WI but are states like MI, PA suburban enough to avoid a Dem meltdown?
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S019
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« Reply #840 on: October 12, 2021, 08:53:02 PM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #841 on: October 12, 2021, 09:16:42 PM »

I predict the Genocidal Obstructionist Pricks will win the GCB by at least 5 points.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #842 on: October 12, 2021, 09:23:09 PM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.
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Devils30
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« Reply #843 on: October 12, 2021, 09:32:52 PM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Special election themes so far:

Dems holding their own in suburbs..they got Biden numbers in a couple in NH and IA a month ago and beat their 2020 state rep numbers in both. See also NM-1.

GOP continuing to improve in small towns, see tonight in IA. Also improved a bit with rural Hispanics in Cali while not doing anything special with urban ones in CA or NM-1.

Wwc areas that are more urban are inconclusive. Dems did well in the Scranton state senate election but that’s such a small sample.

It’s 2016-20 trends continued.
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Spectator
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« Reply #844 on: October 12, 2021, 09:34:05 PM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.

Freudian slip?
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Devils30
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« Reply #845 on: October 12, 2021, 09:35:01 PM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

Yeah, but they literally lost by 20 points when it was seen as just Tilt R. That's not a good sign for them.

Not a single Dem in the House is in a district greater than Trump +6. And zero Trump state Dems are on the 2022 Senate ballot. This seat was going to flip period but rurals keep trending R.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #846 on: October 13, 2021, 04:24:14 AM »

I wouldn’t say a D underperformance of four points is that bad, but it does indicate that whatever remaining ancestral D strength remained in this area downballot is gone. Doesn’t bode well for WI-3, WI-Sen, anything in IA ever, or even possibly some stuff in MN come 2022.

I don’t think this says much about the state of things outside this region, however, and shouldn’t be extrapolated too much - it’s only a few thousand votes.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #847 on: October 13, 2021, 05:10:33 AM »

This was a Trump+16 seat, Dems did not have a chance here once the incumbent retired.

It’s still hilarious because those are the 'low-propensity Republicans' Abby Finkenauer/(IA) Democrats are counting on to say home in 2022 "without Trump on the ballot" (as if IA's Republican trend totally doesn’t predate Trump or any other R nominee wouldn’t have easily won the state or whatever).
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Devils30
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« Reply #848 on: October 13, 2021, 08:07:38 AM »

I wouldn’t say a D underperformance of four points is that bad, but it does indicate that whatever remaining ancestral D strength remained in this area downballot is gone. Doesn’t bode well for WI-3, WI-Sen, anything in IA ever, or even possibly some stuff in MN come 2022.

I don’t think this says much about the state of things outside this region, however, and shouldn’t be extrapolated too much - it’s only a few thousand votes.

For WI the Dems are better asking the court for another Milwaukee area D seat rather than saving the current version of WI-3.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #849 on: October 13, 2021, 09:44:00 AM »

If I ever had a dictatorship, first thing I would do is end corn subsidies. The farmers want conservative politics? They can get that.
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