State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Skill and Chance]

Still a loss and disappointing, but this was actually a better result for the Democrat than I thought it would be. For whatever reason Dems struggle in CT special elections, even happened during the Trump years.

"Ancestral" party infrastructure can really make a difference in special elections.  See also: Oklahoma Dems.

[wbrocks67]

Still a loss and disappointing, but this was actually a better result for the Democrat than I thought it would be. For whatever reason Dems struggle in CT special elections, even happened during the Trump years.

Yeah, I wouldn't even count this as struggling either. I mean, Biden did win by 20, but downballot it's been much redder, so for the Dem to only lose by 2 (with an indie D spoiler) in a Biden off-year, I'd say this is not bad at all

[Matty]

A data point of starting to emerge:

The gop is overperforming their 2020 margins by 3.5 pts right now

It’ suggests the house is a total toss up.

[Progressive Pessimist]

A data point of starting to emerge:

The gop is overperforming their 2020 margins by 3.5 pts right now

It’ suggests the house is a total toss up.

It sounds more like safe R to me.

[Boobs]

https://twitter.com/dlcc/status/1435391586112872449?s=21

Dems flip a Biden +3, Romney/McCain+bajillion state house seat in Bedford.

[Devils30]

https://twitter.com/dlcc/status/1435391586112872449?s=21

Dems flip a Biden +3, Romney/McCain+bajillion state house seat in Bedford.

Romney won this by 26 in 2012! These results are pretty meaningless but still a good sign for Dems to win an off-year in an ancestrally R seat like this.

Not really too relevant but not  terribly consistent with Biden at 44/54 in NH either.

[Lief 🗽]

A great result, and a strong vindication by the voters of President Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it's a small special election but given that its a college educated town that votes R in local elections (and at the R prez level pre-Biden), doesn't really scream "Biden is down -10% in approval in NH!"

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1435759814857089031
Huge chance the democrats loose this seat.

[Devils30]

Yeah, it's a small special election but given that its a college educated town that votes R in local elections (and at the R prez level pre-Biden), doesn't really scream "Biden is down -10% in approval in NH!"

Bedford voted R in the NH-1 House election last fall 50-49%. If Dems can start winning these types of places down ballot more it will help a lot in the House.

[Person Man]

It looks like on the whole, Democrats are holding their own and will probably only narrowly lose by an amount where they can win back in 2024.

[Devils30]

It looks like on the whole, Democrats are holding their own and will probably only narrowly lose by an amount where they can win back in 2024.

Pappas only won this town by 0.6 in 2018 FWIW also.

[Pollster]

Special election happening tonight in Iowa HD-37, district is just north of Des Moines entirely within Polk county. Went from 55/43 Romney to 51/42 Trump to 50/48 Trump. Incumbent Republican John Landon died in July. He defeated Dem Andrea Phillips (who is the Dem nominee in the special) 53/47 in 2020 and by 57/43 in 2016. He defeated a different Dem candidate 52/48 in 2018.

[Gass3268]

Special election happening tonight in Iowa HD-37, district is just north of Des Moines entirely within Polk county. Went from 55/43 Romney to 51/42 Trump to 50/48 Trump. Incumbent Republican John Landon died in July. He defeated Dem Andrea Phillips (who is the Dem nominee in the special) 53/47 in 2020 and by 57/43 in 2016. He defeated a different Dem candidate 52/48 in 2018.

Gonna guess the Republican wins by 5.

[Matty]

is this a suburban district?

[Roll Roons]

is this a suburban district?

Yes. A very fast-growing one, at that.

[It’s so Joever]

R+9

[Oryxslayer]

BTW, the Dem in the Tennessee race was accused of sexual assualt today and resigned as chair of Hamilton county Democrats. Its in the local news. So don't be surprised if there is a exceptionally strong R overperformance there when compared to past elections.

[MT Treasurer]

100% now reporting in IA HD-37:

Mike Bousselot GOP    5,920    51.64%
Andrea Phillips DEM    5,543    48.36%

Decision Desk has called it for Bousselot.

[Pollster]

With 12/12 precincts reporting according to the Polk county auditor, Republican Mike Bousselot appears to have won 52/48, the same margin by which the Republican won this seat in 2018, and a modest D improvement over 2020's result at the state house level.

[It’s so Joever]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

[Matty]

Hmmm, slight dem overperformance from 2020.

not much to read into.

[MT Treasurer]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into a single special election with very low turnout.

[It’s so Joever]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into single special elections with very low turnout.

Probably but that’s no fun.

[Matty]

The problem with analyzing elections is that IN REAL TIME areas trend one way or another.

2020 election was almost a year ago.

It isn't out of the question that a lot of people have moved to this iowa district since then and they are liberal.