State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Not Me, Us]

What's the amendment again?

First one changes the requirement for the legislature to end an emergency order to a simple majority rather than the current supermajority. Second one makes emergency orders expire automatically after 21 days unless the legislature extends it. Partisan power grab by the gerrymandered Republicans in the legislature.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Will it pass?

[Matty]

Will it pass?

Both are up like 150,000 votes.

Many are calling it already. The margin might just be too insurmountable at this point.

Plus, this isn't necessarily a partisan vote. There are no party labels on this question.

Not unrealistic to think a lot of dems in PA are done with covid restrictions.

[IAMCANADIAN]

What's the amendment again?

First one changes the requirement for the legislature to end an emergency order to a simple majority rather than the current supermajority. Second one makes emergency orders expire automatically after 21 days unless the legislature extends it. Partisan power grab by the gerrymandered Republicans in the legislature.

Preventing the governor from keeping emergency powers indefinitely is a partisan power grab?

[It’s so Joever]

It looks like we have a D overperformance in SD22 (Biden +9, Flynn +13 with a Green candidate getting 9) and HD59 (Trump +41, Rossi +33), and an R overperformance in SD48 (Trump +20, Gebhard +32) and HD60 (Trump +48, Major +57).

So, here we are with inconclusive special election results. Again.

Shove them into the averages I guess and hope for the best.

[Devils30]

It's partisan because the current Governor is a Dem but might not really be applicable to much in the future.

[compucomp]

Will it pass?

Both are up like 150,000 votes.

Many are calling it already. The margin might just be too insurmountable at this point.

Plus, this isn't necessarily a partisan vote. There are no party labels on this question.

Not unrealistic to think a lot of dems in PA are done with covid restrictions.

I agree that there has to be many Dems voting yes on these amendments, particularly in Philadelphia county, where Yes is getting ~30% of the vote, 10-15% above what Republicans usually get.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/GianniHillPA/status/1397297289841020930?s=20

We got a breakdown of the vote, including the green share. There was a geographic concentration to her vote, which reflects the localness of her candidacy. It looks like she mainly pulled from the dem corner - or at least the Trump Dem - side of the spectrum. Definitely some Republican support of course, especially when you have a geographic rather than ideological voter base.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?

I'm curious what the Biden-Trump numbers are in HD-34

[Roll Roons]

Georgia has two legislative special elections on June 15, both in House districts formerly held by Republicans.  HD-156 is safe R, but HD-34 looks like it could potentially be interesting; it's a suburban district (Cobb County) where the former incumbent, Bert Reeves, won 56-44 in 2020, a decline from his winning percentages of 58% in 2018 and 64% in 2016.  There are two Republicans, two Democrats, and one Libertarian running.  If no one gets a majority on June 15, there will be a runoff between the top two on July 13.

Does anyone local have more insight on this race?

I'm curious what the Biden-Trump numbers are in HD-34

According to CNAnalysis, it was Trump +4. Though I'm sure Biden improved there a ton compared to Hillary. And even though it's a suburban Atlanta district, I think the fact that Trump won it should be enough to keep it in Republican hands.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1402438028916715525

[MATTROSE94]

New NH-SEN 2022 NUT map:

I would love to see this map happened. Too bad Maggie Hassan is a weak incumbent who will lose 53-45 against Chris Sununu. Even if Donald Trump won in 2020, Chris Sununu would have still been the favorite against Maggie Hassan IMO.

[Roll Roons]

Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CamilaOrtiTV/status/1403190491378642949

[DINGO Joe]

There was an election in LA to fill Troy Carter's Senate seat vacated when he defeated Karen Carter Peterson to win the LA 02 Congressional seat.  The winner was State Rep Gary Carter Jr who is not related to KCP but is Troy Carter's nephew.  It's a black majority district with a white part of Plaquemines Parish attached.  And that's the results, with white people winning Plaquemines and Carter Jr. the rest. 

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical

This means that LA state house 102 is open.  No word on how many Carters will run for that seat.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CamilaOrtiTV/status/1403190491378642949

Apparently his district is a biden district according to a tweet I saw.

[Skill and Chance]

There was an election in LA to fill Troy Carter's Senate seat vacated when he defeated Karen Carter Peterson to win the LA 02 Congressional seat.  The winner was State Rep Gary Carter Jr who is not related to KCP but is Troy Carter's nephew.  It's a black majority district with a white part of Plaquemines Parish attached.  And that's the results, with white people winning Plaquemines and Carter Jr. the rest. 

https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/graphical

This means that LA state house 102 is open.  No word on how many Carters will run for that seat.

Interesting.  Some argument to be made between these results and the LA-02 special that D's are structurally stronger in the NOLA area vs. the recent past.

[Spectator]

Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CamilaOrtiTV/status/1403190491378642949

Apparently his district is a biden district according to a tweet I saw.

Whoever said that didn’t do their research. His seat is heavily red at 57-41 Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, Louisiana Dems have been strong this year so far. They've been outperforming in a ton of these special elections. Granted, low turnout - but they got 83% of the vote in a Biden 70% district.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Very early returns in the Georgia special elections, from https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  Both seats were previously held by Republicans.

HD-34 (a suburban Cobb County district that voted for Trump by a few points):

David Blinkhorn (R) 273 9.34%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 579 19.81%
Chris Neill (L) 16 0.55%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1179 40.34%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 876 29.97%

If no one wins a majority tonight, there will be a runoff in four weeks.

HD-156 (solid R):

Wright Gres (D) 111 11.90%
Leesa Hagan (R) 660 70.74%
Wally Sapp (R) 162 17.36%

[GeorgiaModerate]

HD-34:

David Blinkhorn (R) 295 9.43%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 625 19.99%
Chris Neill (L) 18 0.58%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1255 40.13%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 934 29.87%


HD-156:

Wright Gres (D) 188 10.65%
Leesa Hagan (R) 934 52.92%
Wally Sapp (R) 643 36.43%

[GeorgiaModerate]

HD-34 isn't updating frequently, but HD-156 is.  It's going to be close as to whether Hagan wins outright or the two Republicans go to a runoff.  At the moment she has a majority with exactly nothing to spare (2010 out of 4019)!

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 295 9.43%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 625 19.99%
Chris Neill (L) 18 0.58%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1255 40.13%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 934 29.87%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 598 14.88%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2010 50.01%
Wally Sapp (R) 1411 35.11%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Results continue to trickle in sloooowly.  I've got some other stuff to do before bedtime, so this will be my last update.  You can follow the SoS results at https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  I'll predict that HD-34 goes to a runoff between Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D), while HD-156 could be either an outright Hagan win or a runoff between the two R's.

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 383 9.76%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 755 19.25%
Chris Neill (L) 29 0.74%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1654 42.16%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 1102 28.09%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 602 14.45%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2026 48.63%
Wally Sapp (R) 1538 36.92%

[It’s so Joever]

Results continue to trickle in sloooowly.  I've got some other stuff to do before bedtime, so this will be my last update.  You can follow the SoS results at https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  I'll predict that HD-34 goes to a runoff between Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D), while HD-156 could be either an outright Hagan win or a runoff between the two R's.

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 383 9.76%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 755 19.25%
Chris Neill (L) 29 0.74%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1654 42.16%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 1102 28.09%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 602 14.45%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2026 48.63%
Wally Sapp (R) 1538 36.92%

Where are you getting numbers?
Edit: It has come to my attention that I can’t read.

[VAR]

HD-34 is 100% in. Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D) advance to a runoff. The two Republicans in the race won 59% of the vote, which is an improvement over Trump and Reeves' performance.