State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[It’s so Joever]

A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

I would not worry too much about the VA HD 02 Special Election. Very few voters even knew there was an election occurring.

I’m not counting that one.

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1351977664916066305

Former CA-50 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar puts out a bizarre press release in the AD-79 race. He humble-brags about leading the polls and how his exploratory committee saw a path to victory

and then passes on running because he doesn't want to get in the way of a woman of color.

Now I'm just watching this guy's career because it's like a trainwreck in real time. utter self immolation.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1351977664916066305
Former CA-50 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar puts out a bizarre press release in the AD-79 race. He humble-brags about leading the polls and how his exploratory committee saw a path to victory

and then passes on running because he doesn't want to get in the way of a woman of color.

Now I'm just watching this guy's career because it's like a trainwreck in real time. utter self immolation.

maybe he's hoping the CA-50 get's redrawn to be more favourable and he get it nextime ?
Didn't he also get in trouble for being very alt-right and giving an interview to like a white nationalist group ? maybe he's trying to score woke points to get more favourable ?

[free my dawg]

maybe he's hoping the CA-50 get's redrawn to be more favourable and he get it nextime ?
Didn't he also get in trouble for being very alt-right and giving an interview to like a white nationalist group ? maybe he's trying to score woke points to get more favourable ?

I mean he's openly said he's open to challenging Issa if the conditions are right.

Either way, he's proven he's devoid of principle.

[LtNOWIS]

TX-HD-68

David Spiller (R)
4,158   63%

Craig Carter (R)
2,452   37%

Per OurCampaigns, Spiller won all but two counties.

[ctrepublican512]

is there a website that lists upcoming special elections?

[jimrtex]

is there a website that lists upcoming special elections?

talkelections.org

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://www.bostonherald.com/2021/03/02/jeffrey-turco-claims-victory-in-19th-suffolk-primary-to-replace-deleo/

Democrats nominate somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 in a Massachusetts state house seat from the Boston metro area that voted 60-36 for Clinton.

[Figueira]

https://bangordailynews.com/2021/03/09/politics/follow-the-election-results-in-maine-senate-district-14/

Hickman (D) wins in Maine!!! Democratic hold, but it's a swing district so still exciting.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://bangordailynews.com/2021/03/09/politics/follow-the-election-results-in-maine-senate-district-14/

Hickman (D) wins in Maine!!! Democratic hold, but it's a swing district so still exciting.

It's a Trump-Biden district, the democratic nominee a progressive african american won it an absolute landslide after Biden won it by a point.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Democrats are poised to flip Michelle Steel's OC Board of Supervisors seat. This will be the first time in over 100 years the Dems will hold this seat, and this victory cuts the GOP's majority to 3-2.

There is no runoff here so if Foley maintains her lead, she wins.

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1369499537547554824?s=20

EDIT: There are only 5K in-person votes outstanding. The seat is hers.

[Tintrlvr]

Why did 3 Rs and 2 Ds run for the seat if there's no runoff?

[Matty]

Why did 3 Rs and 2 Ds run for the seat if there's no runoff?

Yea, that was a failure.

[Mike Thick]

I was pretty tuned out of this one but expected Moorlach to win handily. Pleasantly surprised, guess it makes sense with the vote splitting.

Just a few years ago, Moorlach was this titan of OCGOP with a 25-year career in tons of different state and county level jobs. Went from that to losing re-election narrowly, then getting utterly creamed when he ran for his old supervisorial seat. Now OCDems are a stone’s throw from flipping the board. “Political earthquake” is overused these days but this is one

[Pollster]

Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?

Foley is the mayor of Costa Mesa and is quite popular from what I have read.

It's also probably a product of trends considering the combined votes for the Dem candidates nearly accounted for a majority of those cast, and the district is R+8 in registration.

[prag_prog]

Even with the benefit of vote splitting, it still looks like Dems combined got 51%. Quite impressive.

Does anybody from the area know if either of the Dem candidates had special local appeal or name recognition, or is this just a product of trends? Or both?

In the final tally, Foley's vote share did go down...final tally once after results were updated with EDay votes had Dems at 49% (assuming all Dem leaning votes went to Foley + Rappaport)

[walleye26]

Here in Wisconsin SD-13 (Fitzgerald’s old seat) I’ve been getting pummeled with mail. Jagler has been sending out mail a ton and I recently got one from Mary Winker, the Democrat. Still safe R, but the results will be interesting to see.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Another Virginia special election, no change from the presential results. Safe Republican Hold.
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1374518440405299200

[walleye26]

I know that this is a special state legislature thread, but I wanted to include the Wausau (my hometown!) school board election here too, in addition to WI’s two specials next Tuesday. What is happening in Wausau is an exceptionally brutal school board campaign, and it’s one of the most bitter I’ve ever seen in my lifetime.
Wausau (about 40,000 people) started the year virtually, as did many others before slowly transitioning to a hybrid model. Some Wausau students open enrolled in neighboring farm districts who were in person to start.

Enter the conflict: Wausau school board President Tricia Zunker (the Dem nominee for WI-7 last year) along with two others are up for re-election. The local GOP has slammed them for keeping everything virtual to start the year and for Wausau losing enrollment. Three challengers, Karen Vanderburg, Jon Creisher, and Cody Nikolai are running a joint campaign (something I haven’t seen before) with the slogan “Restoring Confidence.” They want a full reopening and have been slamming the Wausau school board for various Covid measures. It’s caused a complete cluster***k in Wausau: tempers have flown at school board meetings, the three challengers are accused of being bankrolled by the local GOP (they have raised large amounts of money) and have had ethics complaints lodged against them for not disclosing who is paying for their ads (the three said their printer forgot to put the “paid for by” at the bottom of their yard signs and are essentially accusing the media of a hit job). It’s a mess.

Kevin Hermening, the Marathon County GOP chairman, said “Tricia Zunker as Wausau School Board President is a waste of physical space on this planet. She is heartless, doesn’t understand science, hasn’t read a single research article about the failure of online schooling in the spring.” In addition, he implied she did illegal things for raising funds for her Congressional race (without evidence) and predicted an indictment. For what, I’m not sure. In the post Trump era, welcome to local politics.

Anyway, since it’s my hometown, I wanted to add this.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1374523434055520262?s=20

[walleye26]

Tomorrow is special Election Day (as well as State Super) in WI. Important development in the SD-13 special election (where I live.) Although the Democrat, Melissa Winker, faces extremely long odds in this contest (Baldwin even lost this district by 6 in 2018) she got a bit of good news last week. Don Pridemore, a Republican who lost the primary to Jagler (he got 33% of the vote in the GOP primary) announced he is waging an aggressive write in campaign. He’s even getting people writing in letters to the editor now. Pridemore was a state assemblyman, so he has some name ID in this district. Trump Conservative Party candidate Spencer Zimmerman is also running.
Although Zimmerman probably won’t get more than 3%, Pridemore could draw in a fair amount (closer to 10 perhaps?) and spoil Jagler’s win.
https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html
http://

[Mr.Phips]

Tomorrow is special Election Day (as well as State Super) in WI. Important development in the SD-13 special election (where I live.) Although the Democrat, Melissa Winker, faces extremely long odds in this contest (Baldwin even lost this district by 6 in 2018) she got a bit of good news last week. Don Pridemore, a Republican who lost the primary to Jagler (he got 33% of the vote in the GOP primary) announced he is waging an aggressive write in campaign. He’s even getting people writing in letters to the editor now. Pridemore was a state assemblyman, so he has some name ID in this district. Trump Conservative Party candidate Spencer Zimmerman is also running.
Although Zimmerman probably won’t get more than 3%, Pridemore could draw in a fair amount (closer to 10 perhaps?) and spoil Jagler’s win.
https://www.wiscnews.com/bdc/opinion/letters/letter-write-in-pridemore-on-ballot/article_559d85b7-8cc9-5d46-8831-c5bbd0ff9894.html
http://

This if this is within 20 points I’ll be very surprised.

[walleye26]

Yes, I expect Jagler to win by about 15-20, but I think it’ll be interesting to keep an eye on margins in places like Beaver Dam and Columbus. Special elections are just so unpredictable and the fact that Pridemore is going on some write-in offensive against Jagler is interesting.

[Hope For A New Era]

Oklahoma State Senate 22 special election today. Bice's old seat. Curious to see the results.