State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[walleye26]

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.

Did not know he was a perennial candidate. That probably makes it safe R, but the margins still are going to be worth watching.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.

Might be a bit different now that it seems like the GOP is pretty splintered and some conservatives might be angry at them for letting Biden be innagurated.

[LtNOWIS]

Nobody posted the Alabama results from Tuesday:

AL-HD-33:

Ben Robbins (R)
2,232    68.19%

Fred Crum (D)
1,037    31.68%

https://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001110

[walleye26]

Nobody posted the Alabama results from Tuesday:

AL-HD-33:

Ben Robbins (R)
2,232    68.19%

Fred Crum (D)
1,037    31.68%

https://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001110

Not actually a bad result for Dems, since in 2018 it was 67-33 for the GOP.

[It’s so Joever]

State senate election in Meeks’ old district today.
This is a swingier area so it could be an interesting election.
Meeks won as a non-incumbent in 2018 with around a 4% margin.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

State senate election in Meeks’ old district today.
This is a swingier area so it could be an interesting election.
Meeks won as a non-incumbent in 2018 with around a 4% margin.

We have a Rain in Nova-esque information drop.
https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1354067649496551424

[jimrtex]

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

Rip. This was a McGovern 1972 County. And a Mondale 1984 County.

[It’s so Joever]

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

This is actually a severe underperformance from 2018, panic time?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

This is actually a severe underperformance from 2018, panic time?

The turnout for these election is almost nothing and in titanium R areas like this no democrat is gonna be a consistent voter.

[walleye26]

Will be interesting to see the Iowa election result tonight. Today at my home (Dodge County, WI) we got over 6” of snow with 30mph winds. It was a blizzard. Parts of Iowa and Northern Illinois were much worse, so if the GOP voters waited until Election Day, that will help Dems.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1354280930324721664
Republcian win by +10.6, more evidence of democrats entering there dying throes in rural Iowa.

[Matty]

That’s not a totally awful performance for dems

[Matty]

Trump won SD41 by 21 points

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1354287052465049600

[Matty]

Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts

Stewart came within 2 points of flipping it in 18.

[Oryxslayer]

Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts

Stewart came within 2 points of flipping it in 18.

Both true. But the reason why everyone obsessed about special elections from 2017-2018 was because Dems were outperforming Clinton everywhere except Connecticut and a few other places, sometimes by massive margins. And it wasn't driven by past results, it was driven by education, suburbanization, and the trend. This regions is one of those culturally smalltown/rural areas, as highlighted by these two results, where the GOP trend is strong, but Dems enjoyed the benefits of local voters. So if we were to follow the playbook of the past few years, its not all that good of a result for the GOP, or Stewart in perticular.

In fact Chaz got burned rather bad betting on localism in 2020, so I wonder why he's still committed to that over the national topline.

[MT Treasurer]

R trends lagging behind in a low-turnout special state legislative election with unrepresentative turnout patterns (especially in a state like IA) isn’t surprising. This election was not 'bad news' for the GOP, and expecting Republicans to match or exceed Trump's margin in a race like this would be rather foolish.

[It’s so Joever]

Bad omen considering in person was also probably reduced.
2022 is already shaping up to be an R wave.
Panic time!
Panic time!

Eh screw it America is communist and this cesspool of a country deserves to fail.

[Figueira]

This was a fun race to volunteer in, even though it didn't end well for Mary Stewart. It's hard to read much into the results when the previous state legislative results are so far from the recent presidential results.

There is a special election coming up in Maine in March for Shenna Bellows's seat. Also an R trending swing district but in this case the Democrats are defending it.

[Pollster]

It's really just futile overall to make extrapolations for 2022 from a special election that took place under both pandemic and blizzard conditions and pre-redistricting, none of which are likely to be the case in November 2022. However, Dems underperforming 2018 but overperforming 2020 is probably not the worst case scenario for them.

[Red Wall]

It's really just futile overall to make extrapolations for 2022 from a special election that took place under both pandemic and blizzard conditions and pre-redistricting, none of which are likely to be the case in November 2022. However, Dems underperforming 2018 but overperforming 2020 is probably not the worst case scenario for them.

Special elections are predictive of regular election results, many tried to spin the R candidate underperformed Trump, including the IA democratic party, but not on the fact that a 3 point loss became a 11 point loss which is just dowballot trends lagging. Technically Ossof also underperformed Hillary in GA-6 in 2017 but Tom Pryce had won it by 24 points (despite Trump only winning by 1) so he actually shed 20 points from his margin.

[It’s so Joever]

A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

[jamestroll]

A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

I would not worry too much about the VA HD 02 Special Election. Very few voters even knew there was an election occurring.