State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Advances to Runoff. Stay tuned for timing.

CRAIG CARTER    REP   3,802   5.53%
ANDY HOPPER    REP   2,471   3.59%
SHELLEY LUTHER    REP   21,814   31.7%
JACOB MINTER    DEM   14,493   21.06%
DREW SPRINGER    REP   21,903   31.83%
CHRIS WATTS    REP   4,324   6.28%
(I) - Incumbent   Race Total   68,807   Spacing

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 15

Bart Williams defeated Joyce Meek Yates in the special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 15 on October 13, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Bart Williams (Nonpartisan)    
 
53.6
 
   4,067
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Joyce Meek Yates (Nonpartisan)    
 
46.4
 
   3,520


Special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 39

Jason Barrett defeated Bill Sones in the special general runoff election for Mississippi State Senate District 39 on October 13, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/jasonbarrettimage-1.JPG
   Jason Barrett (Nonpartisan)    
 
56.1
 
   4,482
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Bill Sones (Nonpartisan)    
 
43.9
 
   3,508


Special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 37

Lynn Wright defeated David Chism in the special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 37 on October 13, 2020.

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Lynn Wright (Nonpartisan)    
 
63.8
 
   1,544
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DavidChism.jpg
   David Chism (Nonpartisan)    
 
36.2
 
   875


Special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 66

De'Keither Stamps defeated Bob Lee Jr. in the special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 66 on October 13, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   De'Keither Stamps (Nonpartisan)    
 
61.5
 
   909
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Bob Lee Jr. (Nonpartisan)    
 
38.5
 
   570

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule for the rest of the year:


NOVEMBER 3 VOTE-O-RAMA:

AK State Senate District M
AR House District 96 (uncontested)
FL Senate District 20
GA Senate District 39 D Primary
HI Senate District 16
IL Senate District 6 (uncontested)
IL Senate District 11
MI House District 4 (uncontested)
MS House District 87
NJ Senate District 25
NJ Assembly District 25
OK Senate District 28 (uncontested)
OR Senate District 10
SC House District 107
VA House District 29
WA Senate District 38

November 17:

AL Senate District 26 D Primary
AL House District 49

November 24:

MS House District 87 Runoff (if necessary)

December 1:

GA Senate District 39 D Primary Runoff (if necessary)

December 15:

AL Senate District 26 D Primary Runoff (if necessary)

December 19:

TX Senate District 30 Runoff (R v R)

[jimrtex]

Advances to Runoff. Stay tuned for timing.

CRAIG CARTER REP 3,802 5.53%
ANDY HOPPER REP 2,471 3.59%
SHELLEY LUTHER REP 21,814 31.7%
JACOB MINTER DEM 14,493 21.06%
DREW SPRINGER REP 21,903 31.83%
CHRIS WATTS REP 4,324 6.28%
(I) - Incumbent Race Total 68,807 Spacing

Final results:

Luther(R) 22,242
Springer(R) 22,127
Minter(D) 14,825
Watts(R) 4,321
Carter(R) 3,448
Hopper(R) 2,456

December 19 for runoff.

Luther was jailed for opening her hair salon in defiance of government officials, and then refused to apologize.

Springer is a representative for a very rural House district (22 counties) whose most noteworthy bill was pushing through a filing fee for Libertarian Party candidates. He had never had a Libertarian or Green Party opponent (5 elections). He had never had a Democratic opponent until this year, when he received 85% of the vote. He did have Republican opponents in 2012 when he won the primary runoff for an open seat.

It turned out that Luther had never voted in a primary.

The special election was triggered by Senator Pat Fallon becoming the Republican nominee for TX-4 when John Ratcliffe became Director of National Intelligence. Fallon has been elected with 75% of the vote. Texas permits special elections to be triggered in anticipation of a vacancy (Fallon resigned effective with start of the new term - such a resignation has to be unconditional, but Fallon was assured of election). The timing of the special election permitted it to be resolved before the legislature meets next spring.

If Springer is elected to the Senate, a special election would be triggered for his House seat, which likely won't be resolved before the legislature meets.

Turnout will be the key in the special election, the week before Christmas. The district includes parts of Collin and Denton, but they were only about 1/4 of the vote in the special election. Parker and Grayson had more votes than either, and Wichita was not far behind. In the 2018 election (concurrent with the gubernatorial election) about 1/3 of the votes were from Collin and Denton.

The Dallas/Fort Worth news media won't cover a special election on the northern edge of their coverage, while those in in Wichita Falls, Sherman, and Stephenvillle and smaller cities will.

[Kevinstat]

The special election was triggered by Senator Pat Fallon becoming the Republican nominee for TX-4 when John Ratcliffe became Director of National Intelligence. Fallon has been elected with 75% of the vote. Texas permits special elections to be triggered in anticipation of a vacancy (Fallon resigned effective with start of the new term - such a resignation has to be unconditional, but Fallon was assured of election). The timing of the special election permitted it to be resolved before the legislature meets next spring.

I suggested such a "deferred resignation" or "voluntary commutation" of a term (but a non-rescindable one) when the Augusta City Council was conducting a review of the City Charter in early 2018.  It's quite common to have a City Councilor get elected Mayor in the middle of their Council term or for a regular Board of Education member to get elected Board of Education Chair in the middle of their Board term.  Sometimes they're unopposed in the latter case (I think an open seat for Mayor will almost always result in a contested race).

The City Attorney raised concerns about the idea, like what if someone changed their mind?  (I might have omitted the non-rescindable part, which seemed obvious to me, but I had mentioned how there's a risk one could be out of office if they lost the race they were running for after voluntarily commuting their term to prevent a potential vacancy that would otherwise occur if they won.)  A City councilor beat me to the punch and said, "Make it irrevocable," but the City Attorney still had concerns about it and at the end everyone agreed that there wasn't really a problem with the occasional vacancies that come up.

Then there were three Council vacancies for 2+ months in 2019 when three City Councilors had to resign as they were moving out of the city.  And two of them held seats that were up anyway and Augusta doesn't do the New York/Texas thing about having special elections for a ~2 month term in November so two of those vacancies were from July or August through the end of the year (the third, which interestingly enough they did allow her to remain on the Council until a time (late August) that normally would have been too late to have a special election after with the various petitioning and ballot preparation requirements (I don't know if municipal elections are required to accommodate UOCAVA voters, but they might be), sort of following my "deferred resignation" idea, but somewhat haphazardly, ... that third vacancy was filled in a November election so that guy, a former Councilor who was unopposed, took office at the City Council meeting following the election).

[jimrtex]

The special election was triggered by Senator Pat Fallon becoming the Republican nominee for TX-4 when John Ratcliffe became Director of National Intelligence. Fallon has been elected with 75% of the vote. Texas permits special elections to be triggered in anticipation of a vacancy (Fallon resigned effective with start of the new term - such a resignation has to be unconditional, but Fallon was assured of election). The timing of the special election permitted it to be resolved before the legislature meets next spring.

I suggested such a "deferred resignation" or "voluntary commutation" of a term (but a non-rescindable one) when the Augusta City Council was conducting a review of the City Charter in early 2018.  It's quite common to have a City Councilor get elected Mayor in the middle of their Council term or for a regular Board of Education member to get elected Board of Education Chair in the middle of their Board term.  Sometimes they're unopposed in the latter case (I think an open seat for Mayor will almost always result in a contested race).

The City Attorney raised concerns about the idea, like what if someone changed their mind?  (I might have omitted the non-rescindable part, which seemed obvious to me, but I had mentioned how there's a risk one could be out of office if they lost the race they were running for after voluntarily commuting their term to prevent a potential vacancy that would otherwise occur if they won.)  A City councilor beat me to the punch and said, "Make it irrevocable," but the City Attorney still had concerns about it and at the end everyone agreed that there wasn't really a problem with the occasional vacancies that come up.

Then there were three Council vacancies for 2+ months in 2019 when three City Councilors had to resign as they were moving out of the city.  And two of them held seats that were up anyway and Augusta doesn't do the New York/Texas thing about having special elections for a ~2 month term in November so two of those vacancies were from July or August through the end of the year (the third, which interestingly enough they did allow her to remain on the Council until a time (late August) that normally would have been too late to have a special election after with the various petitioning and ballot preparation requirements (I don't know if municipal elections are required to accommodate UOCAVA voters, but they might be), sort of following my "deferred resignation" idea, but somewhat haphazardly, ... that third vacancy was filled in a November election so that guy, a former Councilor who was unopposed, took office at the City Council meeting following the election).

It is not a UOCAVA requirement that non-federal offices conform, but it may be a state or local requirement.

There was a close legislative election in Texas, and during the contest it was discovered all sorts of odd things happen.

A UOCAVA voters had been sent a ballot, and election officials had just crossed through all the non-federal races. The voter had voted straight ticket, and it was argued that he would have voted for the Republican legislative candidate. There is also some distinction based on whether the return was "indefinite". Apparently it was intended to distinguish between expatriates who might never return and therefore had lost any local connection, even though as US Citizens they may retain a federal interest; but other voters may say their return is indefinite because they have not made reservations, or perhaps a job assignment might or might not be extended for another 6 months.

So the law has been changed to include some state races for UOCAVA voters. It has little practical impact because the elections are concurrent with the federal elections. That is not true for local elections.

Other oddities from that election. Texas requires a voter to be absent from the county for the entire early voting period as well as election day. It also requires the application to made from outside the county. Someone was going to be working in Germany, but they sent their application from the Austin airport as they were leaving the country. They had an address in Germany where the ballot could be sent, but had not literally been in Germany when the application was made (it might have been legal to send the application during a layover in DFW, Chicago, or New York.

Another voter had bought a house in a different county and district. They claimed that their dogs had moved (and they drove out every day to feed them) but that they still lived in Austin.

Another person was couch surfing. They claimed that most of friends they had stayed with were in the district.

=====

There was a similar resignation of a senator this last spring. Special elections are ordinarily held on the uniform election day in May or November. The Senator had taking another position so he timed his resignation to happen just before the election. This would mean that his replacement could take office immediately before election. The election was cancelled because of COVID-19 and rescheduled to July, so there was a gap after all.

======

Another Senator was running for Congress and was almost certain to be elected. But she for some reason refused to make an actual resignation. She claimed that the special election was not scheduled concurrent with the general election because she was a Democrat, Hispanic, and female. But is was because she refused to say I resign effective date X. The special election ran into the legislative session.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

November 3 Results:


Special general election for Alaska State Senate District M

Incumbent Josh Revak defeated Andy Holleman in the special general election for Alaska State Senate District M on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DSC00226-min.JPG
Josh Revak (R)
 
57.6
 
 10,363


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/AndyHolleman1.jpeg
Andy Holleman (Independent)

42.1

7,586
  Other/Write-in votes

0.3

55

AR House District 96 (uncontested) - Jill Bryant (R) elected


Special general election for Florida State Senate District 20

Daniel Burgess defeated Kathy Lewis in the special general election for Florida State Senate District 20 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Danny_Burgess.jpg
Daniel Burgess (R)
 
54.8
 
 141,607


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Kathy_Lewis-1.jpg
Kathy Lewis (D)

45.2

116,685


Special Democratic primary for Georgia State Senate District 39

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Sonya Halpern
 
45.2
 
 31,074
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/LindaPritchett1.jpg
Linda Pritchett
 
25.4
 
 17,460


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
JoAnna Potts

15.5

10,654


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Zan Fort

13.9

9,578

HI Senate District 16 Bennette Misalucha (D) per https://www.civilbeat.org/2020/11/hawaii-legislature-gop-loses-a-house-seat-stays-even-in-the-senate/

IL Senate District 6 (uncontested) - Sara Feigenholtz (D)



Special general election for Illinois State Senate District 11

Incumbent Celina Villanueva defeated Mary Ellen Brown and Richard Mayers in the special general election for Illinois State Senate District 11 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CelinaVillanueva1.jpg
Celina Villanueva (D)
 
78.5
 
 38,548


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MariBrown.jpg
Mary Ellen Brown (Democracy in America)

21.5

10,571


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Richard Mayers (Independent) (Write-in)


0


MI House District 4 (uncontested) - Abraham Aiyash (D)



Special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87

Joseph Tubb and Matthew Conoly advanced to a runoff. They defeated David Wayne Morgan in the special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Joseph Tubb (Nonpartisan)
 
45.7
 
 3,677
✔

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Matthew Conoly (Nonpartisan)
 
37.7
 
 3,035


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
David Wayne Morgan (Nonpartisan)

16.5

1,331

New Jersey
State Senate - District 25 - Special General

Party Name Votes Vote %
GOP
Bucco, Anthony M. i
 
65,964
 
54.08%

Dem
Mehta, Rupande

56,007

45.92%

State Assembly - District 25 - Special General

Party Name Votes Vote %
GOP
Dunn, Aura i
 
63,354
 
52.53%

Dem
Draeger, Darcy

57,242

47.47%

OK Senate District 28 (uncontested) - Zack Taylor (R)

OR Senate District 10 - TOO CLOSE TO CALL


Special general election for South Carolina House of Representatives District 107

Case Brittain defeated Tony Cahill and Wm Dettmering III in the special general election for South Carolina House of Representatives District 107 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Case Brittain (R)
 
65.5
 
 15,956


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Tony Cahill (D)

32.7

7,963


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Wm Dettmering III (L)

1.8

427
  Other/Write-in votes

0.1

28


Special general election for Virginia House of Delegates District 29

Bill Wiley defeated Irina Khanin in the special general election for Virginia House of Delegates District 29 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Bill Wiley (R)
 
63.7
 
 28,787


Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Irina_Khanin.jpg
Irina Khanin (D)

36.2

16,365
  Other/Write-in votes

0.1

64


Special general election for Washington State Senate District 38

Incumbent June Robinson defeated Bernard Moody in the special general election for Washington State Senate District 38 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate

%
Votes
✔

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/robinson.jpg
June Robinson (D)
 
59.7
 
 36,681


Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Bernard Moody (R)

40.2

24,739
  Other/Write-in votes

0.1

72



Overall:

GOP Victories: 8
Dem Victories: 5
Uncalled: 1
Primary Only: 1
Non-Partisan: 1

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

November 17 Results:


AL STATE REPRESENTATIVE, DISTRICT 49
          
Percent
   
Votes
Cheryl Patton (DEM)    
chart
   
36.74%
   
930
Russell Bedsole (REP)    
chart
   
63.18%
   
1,599
Write-In    
chart
   
0.08%
   
2
 
 
 
2,531


AL STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT 26 (DEM Primary)
          
Percent
   
Votes
Deborah Anthony (DEM)    
chart
   
3.85%
   
202
Linda Douglas Burkette (DEM)    
chart
   
10.32%
   
541
Kirk Hatcher (DEM)    
chart
   
47.93%
   
2,513
John Knight (DEM)    
chart
   
20.81%
   
1,091
Janet May (DEM)    
chart
   
7.63%
   
400
Tashina Morris (DEM)    
chart
   
9.46%
   
496
 
 
 
5,243

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special general election for Oregon State Senate District 10

Deb Patterson defeated incumbent Denyc Boles and Taylor Rickey in the special general election for Oregon State Senate District 10 on November 3, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DebPattersonNEW1.JPG
   Deb Patterson (D / Working Families Party)    
 
48.5
 
   37,725
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Denyc-Boles.jpg
   Denyc Boles (R)    
 
47.8
 
   37,149
   

Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
   Taylor Rickey (L)    
 
3.6
 
   2,775
        Other/Write-in votes    
 
0.2
 
   145


Special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87

Joseph Tubb defeated Matthew Conoly in the special general runoff election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 87 on November 24, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JosephTubb.jpg
   Joseph Tubb (Nonpartisan)    
 
58.3
 
   930
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/MatthewConoly.jpg
   Matthew Conoly (Nonpartisan)    
 
41.7
 
   666

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Following GA State Sen 39 tonight: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107395/web.264614/#/summary

No R filed so whoever wins this wins the seat

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

61/122 in:

Sonya Halpern (DEM)
2,040
79.66%
 
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
521
20.34%
Votes Cast
2,561

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projected winner at 112/122 in:

Sonya Halpern (DEM)
4,379
80.84%
 
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
1,038
19.16%
Votes Cast
5,417

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Final:

Sonya Halpern (DEM)
4,404
80.85%
 
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
1,043
19.15%
Votes Cast
5,447

[LtNOWIS]

There's a January 5th special election in Virginia's 90th state house district, in Eastern Norfolk. Safe Democratic seat. Both parties are selecting their candidates in party nominating contests this weekend.

https://www.wtkr.com/news/voters-to-pick-party-nominees-for-open-local-house-of-delegates-seat-this-weekend

[LtNOWIS]

Jennifer Carrol Foy also stepped down in Virginia, to focus more on her race for governor. That special will also be January 5.

https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/all-releases/2020/december/headline-886147-en.html

[Drew]

A special election for Wisconsin AD-89 to replace the resigning John Nygren (R) has been scheduled for 4/6/21, the same day as the spring elections in the state.  The primary would be 2/16/21 in alignment with the statewide primary day.  Safe R.

https://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/WIGOV/2020/12/18/file_attachments/1630860/EO099-SpecialElection89th.pdf

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special Democratic primary runoff for Alabama State Senate District 26

Kirk Hatcher defeated John Knight in the special Democratic primary runoff for Alabama State Senate District 26 on December 15, 2020.

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
✔    

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KirkHatcherAL78.jpg
   Kirk Hatcher      
 
74.2
 
   3,961
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Knight_j.jpeg
   John Knight      
 
25.8
 
   1,374

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TX-Sen 30:

STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT 30 - UNEXPIRED TERM
Click for Contest Details
CANDIDATE NAME   PARTY   EARLY VOTES   TOTAL VOTES   PERCENT
SHELLEY LUTHER   REP   16,344   25,146   43.55%
DREW SPRINGER   REP   21,284   32,599   56.45%
(I) - Incumbent   Race Total   57,745   Spacing


Jan. 2021 schedule:

1/5: VA House 2 & 90
1/19: AL House 33

[jimrtex]

TX-Sen 30:

STATE SENATOR, DISTRICT 30 - UNEXPIRED TERM
Click for Contest Details
CANDIDATE NAME PARTY EARLY VOTES TOTAL VOTES PERCENT
SHELLEY LUTHER REP 16,344 25,146 43.55%
DREW SPRINGER REP 21,284 32,599 56.45%
(I) - Incumbent Race Total 57,745 Spacing

Jan. 2021 schedule:

1/5: VA House 2 & 90
1/19: AL House 33

1/23 TX House 68, to replace Drew Springer who has been elected to the Senate.

If TX-68 were a state it would be the 42nd largest (behind WV, but ahead of MD, HI, MA, VT, NH, NJ, CT, DE, RI). It is extremely R. Springer had not had an opponent since winning the Republican primary in 2012, until this year when S. Lamb (D) ran. Springer won 85% to 15%

With 22 counties, there may be all kinds of county officials who might jump in the special election, unless the resign-to-run law applies.

[LimoLiberal]

Rainy day in NoVA for two special elections in the House of Delegates. HD-02 in eastern Prince William County and parts of Stafford County (think Quantico), vacated by Jennifer Carroll-Foy who's running for governor, and HD-90 in Norfolk, vacated by Joe Lindsey who was appointed to a judgeship. Democrats should win both but HD-02 could be closer than expected. Polls close at 7 PM.

[LtNOWIS]

Final unofficial results:

VA-HD-02:

Candi P. M. King (D)
4,386    51.49%

Heather F. Mitchell  (R)
4,123    48.40%



VA-HD-90: 

Angelia Williams Graves (D)
3,668    63.49%

Sylvia Marie Bryant (R)
2,103    36.40%


https://results.elections.virginia.gov/vaelections/2021%20January%20Special/Site/GeneralAssembly.html

[jamestroll]

Final unofficial results:

VA-HD-02:

Candi P. M. King (D)
4,386    51.49%

Heather F. Mitchell  (R)
4,123    48.40%

Does not mean democrats are doomed in the VA elections of 2021.. but all the more reason to not take a risk in the gubernatorial primary!

[It’s so Joever]

Very worrisome, signs of a 2021 bloodbath?

[walleye26]

Hey guys, we have an Alabama special on Tuesday, 1/19. Looks safe R. https://news.ballotpedia.org/2021/01/11/special-election-to-be-held-jan-19-in-alabama-state-house-district/

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

IA Sen 41 is on Jan 26th, Miller-Meeks old district, should be Lean/Likely R.

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

[Drew]

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.