State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

[lfromnj]

The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Rhode Island favors Republicans geographically in that Democrats are clustered in the Providence and Newport, so in theory they should hold a lot more seats in the legislature than they do.

[lfromnj]

The state of the Massachusetts GOP is even more embarrassing when you see that Democrats have 2 of 3 Trump state senate seats, including the reddest one in the state that went for Trump 51-41

Rhode islands a bigger meme because there actually are  a significant amount ofTrump seats there.

That actually makes a lot of sense. Rhode Island favors Republicans geographically in that Democrats are clustered in the Providence and Newport, so in theory they should hold a lot more seats in the legislature than they do.

Yeah which is just pathetic because there is a reason to try in Rhode Island in that you could probably get atleast 1/3 of the legislature in some years. The funniest meme about the RI GOP is that during the legalization of gay marriage all the no votes came from Democrats

[Brittain33]

1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

[smoltchanov]

1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

New update.

Moran leads 60.3%-39.7%

This looks over.

A disappointing defeat in a seat Republicans no doubt hoped they would be able to hold.  A grim harbinger of worsening Republican prospects for November.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

Tarr hasn’t been challenged in a long time, but his district is very blue. The only one of the remaining four that would be safe if Democrats tried is Fattman, but his district isn’t super conservative—Trump only won it by 1%. O’Connor and Tran are very vulnerable this year.

Republicans have kept fumbling the ball on Democrat Anne Gobi’s seat for the past decade. They couldn’t even win it as an open seat in 2014 of all years lol. This is the 51-41 Trump seat based mostly in Worcester

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

[Roll Roons]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the MA Reps. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Because he wouldn't have lost even if they had seriously contested it.

[Brittain33]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Beyond their control.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the MA Reps. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Because he wouldn't have lost even if they had seriously contested it.

And the Massachusetts GOP actually lost seats in the legislature as Charlie Baker was winning by 33% speaks for itself.

[smoltchanov]

I still think the MA Dems are more incompetent than the anything. Seriously, why else would they let Baker win in a 33.48 point rout in a 27.20 point Clinton state and in a heavily Democratic year.

Beyond their control.

+1

[smoltchanov]

1 of the 4 is scandal-plagued Dean Tran who flipped his seat to Republicans and could easily lose.

The other? Conservative Fattman from conservative district and relatively moderate Tarr and O'Connor from Democratic-leaning districts?

Tarr hasn’t been challenged in a long time, but his district is very blue. The only one of the remaining four that would be safe if Democrats tried is Fattman, but his district isn’t super conservative—Trump only won it by 1%. O’Connor and Tran are very vulnerable this year.

Republicans have kept fumbling the ball on Democrat Anne Gobi’s seat for the past decade. They couldn’t even win it as an open seat in 2014 of all years lol. This is the 51-41 Trump seat based mostly in Worcester

Thanks! I meant "relatively conservative")))

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OR state senate 10 Dem Primary (Special November 3):

Deb Patterson (D) 90.8 12,949
Charles Womble (D) 9.2 1,309
Other/Write-in votes 0.8 109

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/massdems/status/1267991018168819714

We bagged another one

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

37th Middlesex:

Danillo Sena (D)    74.2    4,226
Catherine Clark (R)    25.8    1,471

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

June 9th Results:

GA Senate 4:



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/BillyHickman_Georgia.png
   Billy Hickman (R)    
 
33.3
 
   11,792
    

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   Scott Bohlke (R)    
 
32.0
 
   11,322
   

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   Stephen Sammons (Independent)    
 
16.4
 
   5,791
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/KathyPalmer.jpeg
   Kathy Palmer (R)    
 
15.5
 
   5,480
   

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   Neil Singleton (R)    
 
2.9
 
   1,025

Runoff: August 11th



SC-115 Primaries:



Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Carol_Tempel.jpg
   Carol Tempel      
 
37.7
 
   1,729
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Wetmore.jpg
   Spencer Wetmore      
 
34.1
 
   1,567
   

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/EileenDougherty.jpg
   Eileen Dougherty      
 
28.2
 
   1,296

Ballotpedia Logo
   


Republican primary election

   Candidate
   
%
   Votes
   

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   Josh Stokes      
 
52.2
 
   2,209
   

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   Kathleen Wilson      
 
47.8
 
   2,020


Democratic Runoff: June 23
General: August 11

[LimoLiberal]

There's a special election today for Kentucky Senate District 26 in Jefferson and Oldham Counties. It's a Trump +12 and Beshear +10 district in the northern Louisville suburbs. Doctor Karen Berg (D) is facing Businessman Bill Ferko (R). Berg ran for this seat in 2018 but lost 52-46 to incumbent Ernie Harris (R) who stepped down this April.

The highly contested U.S. Senate primary on the Democratic side as well as general D enthusiasm (especially in the suburbs) might give Berg a boost. She has the Facebook enthusiasm with nearly 2x as many likes as Ferko. I'd rate this race a tossup.

Polls close at 6 PM.

[Mr.Phips]

There's a special election today for Kentucky Senate District 26 in Jefferson and Oldham Counties. It's a Trump +12 and Beshear +10 district in the northern Louisville suburbs. Doctor Karen Berg (D) is facing Businessman Bill Ferko (R). Berg ran for this seat in 2018 but lost 52-46 to incumbent Ernie Harris (R) who stepped down this April.

The highly contested U.S. Senate primary on the Democratic side as well as general D enthusiasm (especially in the suburbs) might give Berg a boost. She has the Facebook enthusiasm with nearly 2x as many likes as Ferko. I'd rate this race a tossup.

Polls close at 6 PM.

Berg needs to keep Oldham county within 10 to win.

[LimoLiberal]

Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

[LimoLiberal]

Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

Ok, I got my hands on the actual numbers from Oldham county.

Democrat – Karen Berg has 1,124 votes (21%)

Republican – Bill Ferko has 4,118 votes (79%)

This is only the Oldham county in-person early and election day vote. We're missing the Jefferson county election day, in-person, and mail-in as well as the Oldham county mail-in. But still, things look pretty good for Ferko, no? Trump only won Oldham county 62-31!

No. No. No.

According to this article (https://www.oldhamera.com/content/county-clerk-releases-partial-numbers-primary-election), there were 20,000 mail-in ballots requested in Oldham county. Nearly 4x the number of ballots counted so far. That doesn't even include the tens of thousands of ballots from Jefferson county yet to be counted.

I've already seen tweets touting how well Ferko is doing and it makes me want to scream. Not because Ferko can't win, because he certainly can and he's arguably the favorite. But when you have 5,000 ballots counted in a race with at least 30,000 more ballots to count it is incredibly irresponsible to act like those ballots are representative. Especially when there's an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans on the use of mail-ins.

In conclusion, we're f***ed in November if mail-in ballot use continues at this rate. People who should know something about how unrepresentative results from different voting methods can be are getting caught up in the excitement of Election Night.

Anyways, I have no idea who will win this race. Talk to me in a week!

[Bidenworth2020]

Ferko (R) leading 79-21 in the Oldham county election day vote. Could portend a blowout win, but I bet the election day electorate was significantly more conservative than absentee ballots.

Ok, I got my hands on the actual numbers from Oldham county.

Democrat – Karen Berg has 1,124 votes (21%)

Republican – Bill Ferko has 4,118 votes (79%)

This is only the Oldham county in-person early and election day vote. We're missing the Jefferson county election day, in-person, and mail-in as well as the Oldham county mail-in. But still, things look pretty good for Ferko, no? Trump only won Oldham county 62-31!

No. No. No.

According to this article (https://www.oldhamera.com/content/county-clerk-releases-partial-numbers-primary-election), there were 20,000 mail-in ballots requested in Oldham county. Nearly 4x the number of ballots counted so far. That doesn't even include the tens of thousands of ballots from Jefferson county yet to be counted.

I've already seen tweets touting how well Ferko is doing and it makes me want to scream. Not because Ferko can't win, because he certainly can and he's arguably the favorite. But when you have 5,000 ballots counted in a race with at least 30,000 more ballots to count it is incredibly irresponsible to act like those ballots are representative. Especially when there's an emerging divide between Democrats and Republicans on the use of mail-ins.

In conclusion, we're f***ed in November if mail-in ballot use continues at this rate. People who should know something about how unrepresentative results from different voting methods can be are getting caught up in the excitement of Election Night.

Anyways, I have no idea who will win this race. Talk to me in a week!

Really great to see you putting out substantive analyses.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 88
Robin Robinson defeated Michael Walker and Jason Dykes in the special general election for Mississippi House of Representatives District 88 on June 23, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
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Robin Robinson (Nonpartisan)    65.1    1,471
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Michael Walker (Nonpartisan)    33.0    745
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png

Jason Dykes (Nonpartisan)    1.9    43

[LimoLiberal]

The in-person vote just dropped from Jefferson county in KY SD-26.

Berg (D) gained 460, Ferko (R) gained 484.

Ferko now leads 4602-1584, or 75% to 25%.

The vast majority of votes still uncounted with mail-ins not to be opened until 6/30.