State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131225 times)
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #500 on: March 24, 2020, 09:52:45 PM »
« edited: May 12, 2020, 01:56:54 AM by Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon »

The Massachusetts Elections Previously scheduled for March 31 will now be split between May 19 and June 2. Thank the Virus.

An Election scheduled for April in Mississippi has been rescheduled for June 23.

Special Elections previously planned in New York have been cancelled and the seats will remain vacant for the balance of the term.

Next Election is May 12th in CA Senate 28.
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Coastal Elitist
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« Reply #501 on: May 08, 2020, 04:49:15 PM »

California senate district 28 is having a special election on the same day as CA-25. Republicans are looking good on current returns: https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/28thSDSpecialAVTracker/2020SpecialElectionTrackerVB?:iid=2&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y
45% Republican
37% Democrat
18% NPP/Oth
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #502 on: May 12, 2020, 06:48:32 PM »

Tonight is CA-SEN 28. Polls close at 11 ET. Not seeing a results page yet.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #503 on: May 12, 2020, 09:05:03 PM »

Results Page: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/special/state-senate/district/28
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #504 on: May 12, 2020, 09:59:01 PM »

polls are closing
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #505 on: May 12, 2020, 10:53:46 PM »

Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems
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Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort
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« Reply #506 on: May 12, 2020, 11:37:31 PM »

Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems

What? Riverside County has been represented by Republicans in the State Senate for decades.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #507 on: May 13, 2020, 08:19:32 AM »

Elizabeth Romero
(Party Preference: DEM)
    75,248
44.1%
    Melissa Melendez
(Party Preference: REP)
    95,378
55.9%


A disappointing loss for the Dems

Literally a seat that voted for Trump and Cox, but OK.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #508 on: May 18, 2020, 05:05:16 PM »

Two Massachusetts special senate elections tomorrow, both formerly held by Republicans. In the 2nd Hampshire and Hampden district, State Rep. John Velis (D) faces off against Navy Reservist John Cain (R). Velis should be favored to flip this 52-41 Clinton seat, and he even represents a part of the district that voted for Trump, Westfield, in the state House.

In the Plymouth and Barnstable district, Falmouth selectwoman Susan Moran (D) faces off against 2018 AG nominee Jay McMahon (R) in this 49-44 Clinton seat. Democrats have struggled to turn out in the COVID era specials so far, so this should be good to watch.

If Democrats flip both of these seats, there will only be 4 Republicans remaining in the 40-member state senate. Of the three senate districts Donald Trump won in the state, Republicans only hold one of them. That should tell you how pathetic the state of the Massachusetts GOP is in, Charlie Baker aside.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #509 on: May 19, 2020, 07:30:50 PM »

Velis up in the first returns.

https://www.wwlp.com/election-results/
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #510 on: May 19, 2020, 07:40:38 PM »

Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #511 on: May 19, 2020, 07:42:49 PM »

Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.
Probably a muted incumbency bump? Assuming this holds, that would be an absolutely massive swing to democrats.
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« Reply #512 on: May 19, 2020, 07:44:21 PM »

Velis is up 70-30 with 25% in. Looks like we can call it a D flip.
Probably a muted incumbency bump? Assuming this holds, that would be an absolutely massive swing to democrats.

He represents the more Republican part of the district that Trump won, so it makes sense that he would overperform the total baseline when you include the bluer parts of the seat, like Holyoke
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #513 on: May 19, 2020, 07:53:08 PM »

Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #514 on: May 19, 2020, 08:02:45 PM »

Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

Where did you find that?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #515 on: May 19, 2020, 08:06:23 PM »

Apparently Velis got 71% in Westfield--a town Trump won by 4%. This is going to be an insane blowout when the blue part of the district comes in.

Where did you find that?

From Daily Kos, but I can't access the tweet in question at work.
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ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #516 on: May 19, 2020, 08:07:39 PM »

https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20200519/polls-close-in-special-plymouth--barnstable-district-election

Here's the page for the Plymouth-Barnstable election.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #517 on: May 19, 2020, 08:10:49 PM »

So far, the results are tracking very very closely to 2016... McMahon leading by less than a point with the two Trump towns in.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #518 on: May 19, 2020, 08:11:10 PM »


Looks like a pickup in this seat too if Moran is carrying Sandwich (a narrow Romney-Clinton town)
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #519 on: May 19, 2020, 08:20:16 PM »


Looks like a pickup in this seat too if Moran is carrying Sandwich (a narrow Romney-Clinton town)

Eh, the result in Pembroke isn't so great.
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« Reply #520 on: May 19, 2020, 08:26:16 PM »

Velis wins by 29% in the complete results.

I think we can say Plymouth-Barnstable is done too. McMahon only won Bourne (his hometown) by 1476 to 1406. Trump won this town. That's not enough to overcome the baseline.

With that, the Massachusetts GOP is left with four seats in the state senate, tied for their record low point ever.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #521 on: May 19, 2020, 08:27:26 PM »

New update.

Moran leads 60.3%-39.7%

This looks over.
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« Reply #522 on: May 19, 2020, 08:36:10 PM »

The Massachusetts GOP begins and ends with Charlie Baker
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #523 on: May 19, 2020, 08:43:29 PM »

The Massachusetts GOP begins and ends with Charlie Baker

They’re quickly approaching Hawaii GOP levels of irrelevance.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #524 on: May 19, 2020, 08:47:11 PM »

The Plymouth town clerk emailed me a spreadsheet showing there are 4722 votes in that town.

Given that McMahon is down 2124 votes, he would need to win 72.5% of the vote in Plymouth.

He's done.
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