State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The first post impeachment Special did not end well.

Rusty Grills   Republican   3,344   85.24%
Michael Smith   Democratic   504   12.85%
Max Smith   Independent   39   0.99%
Ronnie Henley   Independent   21   0.54%
Billy M Jones   Independent   15   0.38%

[smoltchanov]

The first post impeachment Special did not end well.

Rusty Grills   Republican   3,344   85.24%
Michael Smith   Democratic   504   12.85%
Max Smith   Independent   39   0.99%
Ronnie Henley   Independent   21   0.54%
Billy M Jones   Independent   15   0.38%

Democrats seems to be dead as dodo in this ancestrally Democratic area..

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Schedule:

1/14: AR-34 Primary, CT-48, CT-132, KY-38, PA-48, MN-30A Primary
1/21: CT-151, MN-60A Primary, NH Merrimack District 24 Primary
1/28: GA-171 Jungle, Runoffs for TX 28, 100 (D v D), 148
2/4: MA 32nd Middlesex Primary, MN-30A, 60A, RI-56 Primary, GA-13 Jungle
2/11: AR-34 Primary Runoff (if needed)
2/25: PA-190, GA-171 Runoff (if needed), KY-67, KY-99

[Kevinstat]

There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).

It's starting to look like there will not be a special election in Maine's House District 35 (and in Maine's House District 128, whose incumbent Arthur "Archie" Verow died December 19, 2019) after all.  Rep. Peoples's funeral wasn't held until December 14, over a month after her passing, and by that time enough day-to-day stuff might have gone on in Westbrook that the "okay, now we need to request that the Governor declare a special election to fill the vacancy" never occurred to municipal officers in the city.  Rep. Verow's funeral was on December 30.  Neither special election has been called yet, and there may not be enough time for them to be held on March 3 when Maine holds its presidential primaries (both major parties, although President Trump is the only candidate on the Republican ballot) and a special referendum election on blocking Maine's "no complete vaccination, no public school, no exceptions" policy passed on a mostly party-line vote in the Legislature last year.

Municipal officials (like municipal clerks) were already grumbling a bit about the extra expense and hassle of a third election next year (in addition to the June 9 primary election for congressional, state and county offices and the November 3 General Election), so municipal officers (elected officials) in Westbrook and Brewer won't likely give the Governor authorization to call a special election if they think that might result in their having yet another election to provide for.  The statutory adjournment date for this year's regular session of the Maine Legislature is April 15 (the third Wednesday in April), so unless there was an anticipated special session in the summer or fall it doesn't look like a special election would be called for June 9.  So the two seats (and any others that become vacant during the remainder of this term) will likely remain unfilled until the 130th Maine Legislature is sworn in on I believe December 2 of this year (the first Wednesday in December).

[jbrian]

bump

[Kevinstat]

There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).

It's starting to look like there will not be a special election in Maine's House District 35 (and in Maine's House District 128, whose incumbent Arthur "Archie" Verow died December 19, 2019) after all.  Rep. Peoples's funeral wasn't held until December 14, over a month after her passing, and by that time enough day-to-day stuff might have gone on in Westbrook that the "okay, now we need to request that the Governor declare a special election to fill the vacancy" never occurred to municipal officers in the city.  Rep. Verow's funeral was on December 30.  Neither special election has been called yet, and there may not be enough time for them to be held on March 3 when Maine holds its presidential primaries (both major parties, although President Trump is the only candidate on the Republican ballot) and a special referendum election on blocking Maine's "no complete vaccination, no public school, no exceptions" policy passed on a mostly party-line vote in the Legislature last year.

Municipal officials (like municipal clerks) were already grumbling a bit about the extra expense and hassle of a third election next year (in addition to the June 9 primary election for congressional, state and county offices and the November 3 General Election), so municipal officers (elected officials) in Westbrook and Brewer won't likely give the Governor authorization to call a special election if they think that might result in their having yet another election to provide for.  The statutory adjournment date for this year's regular session of the Maine Legislature is April 15 (the third Wednesday in April), so unless there was an anticipated special session in the summer or fall it doesn't look like a special election would be called for June 9.  So the two seats (and any others that become vacant during the remainder of this term) will likely remain unfilled until the 130th Maine Legislature is sworn in on I believe December 2 of this year (the first Wednesday in December).

Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

[Kevinstat]

There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).

It's starting to look like there will not be a special election in Maine's House District 35 (and in Maine's House District 128, whose incumbent Arthur "Archie" Verow died December 19, 2019) after all.  Rep. Peoples's funeral wasn't held until December 14, over a month after her passing, and by that time enough day-to-day stuff might have gone on in Westbrook that the "okay, now we need to request that the Governor declare a special election to fill the vacancy" never occurred to municipal officers in the city.  Rep. Verow's funeral was on December 30.  Neither special election has been called yet, and there may not be enough time for them to be held on March 3 when Maine holds its presidential primaries (both major parties, although President Trump is the only candidate on the Republican ballot) and a special referendum election on blocking Maine's "no complete vaccination, no public school, no exceptions" policy passed on a mostly party-line vote in the Legislature last year.

Municipal officials (like municipal clerks) were already grumbling a bit about the extra expense and hassle of a third election next year (in addition to the June 9 primary election for congressional, state and county offices and the November 3 General Election), so municipal officers (elected officials) in Westbrook and Brewer won't likely give the Governor authorization to call a special election if they think that might result in their having yet another election to provide for.  The statutory adjournment date for this year's regular session of the Maine Legislature is April 15 (the third Wednesday in April), so unless there was an anticipated special session in the summer or fall it doesn't look like a special election would be called for June 9.  So the two seats (and any others that become vacant during the remainder of this term) will likely remain unfilled until the 130th Maine Legislature is sworn in on I believe December 2 of this year (the first Wednesday in December).

Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

Meanwhile in House District 35, whose incumbent died over a month before the incumbent in House District 128 (and her funeral also happened first), no special election has been announced yet, and whoever drafted today's press release announcing the special election in House District 128 seemed to be trying to preemptively answer any questions as to why a special election was being held where the incumbent died later but not where the incumbent died earlier.  I don't recall ever seeing a paragraph like the following one in a press release announcing a special election (I checked and no equivalent paragraph was there for the announcements of the three state house special elections held last year):

"Per State election law, vacancies in House seats are not filled automatically; the municipal officers of the affected municipality must inform the governor if there is a need to fill the vacancy before the next general election. The governor shall then issue a proclamation and order a special election. The municipal officers of the City of Brewer so informed Gov. Janet Mills on January 3, 2020 and Secretary of State Matthew Dunlap signed the vacancy proclamation announcing the special election on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2020."

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/GovWatchLLC/status/1216845572272873472

Half of the Democrats in Senate seats in Kansas City are getting appointed to state jobs. Both Holsman and Curls are senior (Curls the most senior member of the Senate) and Holsman was known to have wanted to extend term limits so he could run again, as both of them were term limited this year. If they are confirmed and resign their seats, this should set up two special elections this summer to fill out the rest of their terms. Both seats are extremely Democratic: 7th: 67-27 Clinton; 80-17 Clinton. The real contest will be within the democratic committees in the senatorial district, who will decide who the Democratic nominee will be for each seat. As they were already term limited there are likely quite a few house members that were already looking to move up, so I expect fierce competition for the nominations.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

 Tonight's Results:

AR-34 Primary:

 H. "OTIS" TYLER (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .         51    7.38            37             0            12             2             0
 JOY C. SPRINGER (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .        295   42.69           213             0            59            23             0
 LEE MILLER (DEM) .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        109   15.77            80             0            22             7             0
 RYAN D. DAVIS (DEM) .  .  .  .  .  .  .        236   34.15           162             0            67             7             0
    Over Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          0                     0             0             0             0             0
   Under Votes .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .          3                     0             0             3             0             0

Runoff is on February 11th.



 CT-48/132: Democrats held the 48th while Republicans held the 132nd: https://www.courant.com/politics/hc-pol-special-election-results-20200115-npilqx5brzhaxmqjgte4dxvmse-story.html


KY-38: Republican hold 8,637 - 4,943. https://www.wdrb.com/news/republican-mike-nemes-wins-kentucky-district-special-election/article_4b00a1ba-3730-11ea-b9d6-b7a73fc0f19f.html


PA-48:
SCHROEDER, MICHAEL
(DEM)
35.3%
    Votes: 9,945
ARNOLD, DAVID J
(REP)
64.7%
    Votes: 18,228


MN-30A Primary:

Republican    Candidate    Totals    Pct    Graph
      Kathy Ziebarth    170    13.02%    
      Paul Novotny    1136    86.98%    
Democratic-Farmer-Labor    Candidate    Totals    Pct    Graph
      Chad Hobot    152    100.00%    

[Annatar]

In the 52 special elections now where both parties share of the vote combined exceeded 90% since the 2018 midterms, Dems have out-performed Clinton by 3.9% and run behind Obama by 1.2%.

In the special elections held post 2016 through to the midterms, democrats had outperformed Clinton by 11.2% on average and Obama by 5.9%.

[Ebsy]

There really is a lot less attention on these special elections than the ones in 2017-2018. Democrats (and maybe Republicans as well) are a lot more focused on the Democratic primary and national politics.

[Gracile]

There really is a lot less attention on these special elections than the ones in 2017-2018. Democrats (and maybe Republicans as well) are a lot more focused on the Democratic primary and national politics.

The Democrats' relative powerlessness after 2016 was probably a big part of their success in special elections during that period as well. Trump in the White House, Republicans controlling Congress, and substantial Republican control at the state legislative level lead to extremely high turnout and attention/money given to races that might not have been given otherwise. Feeling like you have nothing is a powerful motivating force.

Now that Democrats have retaken the House and made modest gains in state legislatures (as well as focus being turned to the presidential race), these special elections are not seen as a high priority as they were in 2017/2018.

[lfromnj]

https://ctmirror.org/2020/01/21/gops-harry-arora-wins-special-election-in-greenwich/

GOP holds on in Clinton +15 seat suburban seat in CT in Greenwich most SW town.

[lfromnj]

Today is the 28th texas house special

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Today is the 28th texas house special

Where's the best place to look at results as they come in?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ok Texas HD 148 will be a safe D hold, but I have a feeling the margin will be very underwhelming since it a largely hispanic seat and the republican is hispanic while the dem is not, I will guess around a 58-42 ish dem win

[ajc0918]

TX-28 Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/TX/Fort_Bend/100355/web/#/summary

[ajc0918]

Early vote + absentee:
Gates (R) 59%
Markowitz (D) 41%

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These Dem losses are getting ridiculous. The one in Greenwich, CT was especially irritating.

[Matty]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

[Matty]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

[100% pro-life no matter what]

What is the partisanship and demographic profile of this district like?

[UncleSam]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.