State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?

[Ebsy]

I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?

Both did, yes. I believe by quite a bit as well, but I don't have the numbers on hand.

[jamestroll]

A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

If 2018 results are any indication.. pretty bad for Democrats but I am thinking the Democrat could pass 40% in Ozaukee County.

Wisconsin is bucking the "trends" slightly but it could royally suck for Democrats if Trump does as well in 2020 as 2016 in driftless and WOW does not move.

HD-99 contains Manchester, one of the tony suburbs in West St. Louis County notable for its strip malls which stretch for miles along Manchester as well as Valley Park, a more middle class Meramec River suburb that is protected by a big 'ole army corps of engineers levee. That it is now represented by a Democrat is frankly insane, but that's suburban trends for you.

It is insane especially since it was not that long ago that it was being discussed that Democrats needed to win seats in the lead belt and northern Missouri to break the GOP supermajority. Now it is clear we can break the supermajority in the suburbs. We have some room to grow locally on both sides of the state.

[Dr. Arch]

A Democrat winning MO HD99 is rather surprising. I don't think that area has ever elected a Democrat before, at least, not in the last few decades. If there was any district in SW St. Louis County that would elect a Democrat, it would be 99, and most of the other adjacent districts that surround it are more heavily Republican than 99. A year ago the incumbent won re-election with only 53%, but two years before that she won her first election with 58%, while the district voted for Trump by a margin of only 5 percentage points and in general supported the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. In 2014, the district re-elected an incumbent Republican with 63.5%, and two years before that it voted for him by 59%, while generally supporting the Republican ticket by about 10 percentage points. So this is a big win for the Democrats. It's hard to say whether this Democrat can win a whole term next year.

And the trends continue. I'm actually wondering how the WOW counties will look like in WI next year.

If 2018 results are any indication.. pretty bad for Democrats but I am thinking the Democrat could pass 40% in Ozaukee County.

Wisconsin is bucking the "trends" slightly but it could royally suck for Democrats if Trump does as well in 2020 as 2016 in driftless and WOW does not move.

Well, Trump failed to crack 60% in Waukesha in 2016. I wouldn't be surprised if he got, maybe, around 55% this time around--something like 55-42.

[MarkD]

I’m guessing Nicole Galloway won HD-99 last year since she crushed it pretty much everywhere in the suburbs, but does anyone know if McCaskill did as well?

Both did, yes. I believe by quite a bit as well, but I don't have the numbers on hand.

I've calculated a few statistics about HD-99. Clarifying what I said above, this district voted for Trump in 2016 by 49.32% to Clinton's 44.21%; meanwhile the district generally supported the Republican ticket by 53.43% to 43.47%. But you're right that in 2018 it swung to Galloway and McCaskill. In District 99, Galloway won the Auditor's race 56.86% to 38.36%, while McCaskill carried the district by 53.20% to Hawley's 44.24%. And Democrat Cort VanOstran carried the district with 50.19% to Rep. Wagner's 48.10%. At the same time (as I noted above) the incumbent Republican state Rep. won with only 53%.

Don't count on this Democratic swing in HD-99 seeping into any adjacent districts, though. HD-99 shares boundaries with HD-90, which already swung to the Democrat earlier this decade, HD-89, HD-96, HD-98, and HD-100, all of which are much more heavily Republican than HD-99. Each of those districts supported the Republican ticket by at least 60% in 2016. (I suppose I could calculate how well Galloway, McCaskill, and VanOstran did in 89, 96, 98, and 100, but that's going to take some more time.)

There's only one other district anywhere in St. Louis County that Democrats have a good chance to pick up soon and that's HD-94 in SE County. Besides that, there are one or two possible districts in St. Charles County, such as HD-65 and HD-106, and certainly Democrats need to put in a lot of effort to win back some seats in Jefferson County that flipped Republican only in the relatively recent past.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Later tonight, results for the AL-74 special will appear here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001055

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Later tonight, results for the AL-74 special will appear here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001055

The Republican won with 69%

[Annatar]

Later tonight, results for the AL-74 special will appear here: http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionnight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1001055

The Republican won with 69%

What was Trump's percentage in this seat, Dailykos doesn't show the numbers for it in its elections sheet.

[Annatar]

An interesting milestone, according to Daily Kos. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dXQhlzCAw05fC7P21eCivdfLOB-F3nykPVRPzG49U9g/edit#gid=0

In special elections post Nov 6 2018 the swing is now 0.3% towards the GOP when looking at 2012 Romney vs Obama, that is dems have done 0.3% worse in special elections on average since Nov 2018 than Obama did. Compared to 2016, Dems are doing 4.8% better, they have slipped below the 5% mark for the average swing.

[Kevinstat]

There will (almost certainly) be a special election next year in Maine House District 35 (Westbrook north of the Presumpscot River) to replace Ann Peoples (D), who died yesterday at age 72.  She had apparently been ill for some time.

Under the Maine Constitution, which is very strict about filling vacancies in the State Senate, a vacancy in the Maine House of Representatives "may" be filled by special election but doesn't actually have to be filled before the end of the term.  Either the Maine Constitution or state statutes (I believe the latter) require municipal officers in a city or town in the district to pass an order asking the Governor to declare the vacancy and order a special election before one can be held (for State Representative).  I know in 2012 a Republican State Representative accused and I believe eventually convicted of pocketing Clean Election cash delayed resigining until early in that year, and no special election was held.  But for a vacancy occurring before the end of the year, it may be unheard of for a special election not to take place.  It might not be until March 3, when the state has its Presidential Primaries (that would save Westbrook from having to hold a separate election, plus would be rather convenient for Democrats who might have more incentive to turn out), but with polls being open throughout the state anyway on that date I assume the election will be held then if not earlier (my guess is it will be on that date).

[jimrtex]

TBD: TX Runoffs for House 28, 100, 148

January 28, 2020

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Two special elections for previously Republican-held state senate seats in Massachusetts will be held early next year, likely coinciding with the state’s Democratic Presidential primary on March 3rd. It’s important to note that the state senate sets the dates for these specials, not Gov. Baker (R).

In Don Humason’s (R) Hampden County seat, the only candidate to announce so far is State Rep. John Velis (D). He probably starts out as the overwhelming favorite to flip the seat since any Republican path to victory in this seat runs through running up the score in Westfield, a Trump-won town that Mr. Velis represents in the lower house. The senate seat overall voted for Clinton 52-41. Likely D.

In the Plymouth-Barnstable seat vacated by Vinny DeMacedo, four Democrats are running to replace him and two Republicans. Three of the Democrats have elected office experience whereas none of the Republicans do in this 49-44 Clinton seat. Lean D.

If Democrats flip both of these seats, they will have a 36-4 advantage in the state senate. It is remarkable how pathetic the Massachusetts GOP is outside of their gubernatorial streak: I realized two Democrats sit in Trump seats in the state senate, including one in a 51-41 Trump sear!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.

[ON Progressive]

Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

[Skill and Chance]

Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

If there is any Trump +YUGE open seat that a Dem can still win, it's this one.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.

Another mayoral race of interest - Boise, Idaho. This is a nonpartisan office, but both candidates are effectively Democrats.

The incumbent, Dave Bieter, has served since 2004. His most recent victory was 2015, where he won by ~40%.

Now in 2019, he has become wildly unpopular. He barely hit 30% while his main challenger Lauren McLean hit 46%.

A runoff election was held today, and he lost by 31%, not winning a single precinct in the city.

[ON Progressive]

Since this somehow hasn't been mentioned here, I'll mention this:

Kentucky State House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins will resign from the State House, which he has served in since 1987, to take a role as a senior adviser for Governor-elect Andy Beshear.

This resignation will open up Adkins' Romney +17/Trump +39 seat for a special election. It should be noted that Beshear did carry this district 51-47, so Democratic ancestry is still fairly strong here in state elections.

I'm shocked Trump didn't carry it by more tbh

It’s still probably the least rough East KY seat for Dems upballot because Elliott is still somewhat more D than a lot of its neighbours and Rowan has Morehead State University.

[Nyvin]

Not sure if this belongs in this thread, but I don't know where else to put it so...

The Savannah, GA mayorship flipped tonight. Democrat Van Johnson beat Republican first-term incumbent Eddie DeLoach by 23 points.

Deloach winning in 2015 was probably a fluke more than anything.   Savannah is 55% black and quite urban obviously.

[Oryxslayer]

Another republican flips with Chad Mayes standing under No Party Preference, defecting from the Assembly GOP. His districts straddles Riverside and San Bernadino counties. It's increasingly clear that you will find better luck as a faction inside the state democratic party than as a GOP politician on the outside.

[lfromnj]

Chad Mayes also represents a Trump district lol.

[Yellowhammer]

Chad Mayes also represents a Trump district lol.

More like Virgin Mayes if you ask me

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Last week:

A former mayor edged out his opponent in a close runoff special election Tuesday for a vacant southwest Georgia state House seat.

Bill Yearta, a jeweler and former mayor of Sylvester, received about 115 more votes than his opponent Jim Quinn, according to unofficial results from the Secretary of State’s office.


The two Republicans — both former mayors — faced off Tuesday to replace former state Rep. Ed Rynders, R-Albany, who resigned earlier this year. They were the top two vote-getters in a four-way special election last month.

Yearta received about 50.9% of the more than 6,700 votes cast on Tuesday,


Tonight we have the AR-22 Primary

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

[lfromnj]

Btw Wulfric you forgot tonights TN HD 77.