State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Skill and Chance]

This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

Single issue Trump people don't vote in special elections.  Like the difference between presidential and non-presidential turnout during Obama's presidency, but with the parties reversed.

[wbrocks67]

This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

Single issue Trump people don't vote in special elections.  Like the difference between presidential and non-presidential turnout during Obama's presidency, but with the parties reversed.

Not exactly true - much like last years specials, GOP turnout is not bad at all.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1704312969549787390?t=jSt_hSYRdSaFpWCep...
Case in point, Shaler township went from Trump+.1 to Dem+10. But this shouldn't be that surprising,  the wealthier areas voters in a place like Allegheny are going to seak out more obscure political information for a special election.  Essentially,  these areas would have both the districts Republicans and it's most motivated Dems.

Another way of looking at it is that the 2022 coalitions with their large Democratic geographic biases seemingly have not changed. But the overall environment has, and in a way that favors the Democrats.

I agree with your post other than that it implies an improved Dem environment. You can still have a more dem-leaning electorate, even if GOP precincts uniformly turn out more than Dem precincts, if there is a confounding variable within the precincts (namely differences in turnout by partisanship and education level).

The same thing happened on the NE-1 special. GOP precincts turned out more than Dem precincts in the special but the special almost certainly had higher overall Dem turnout based on how much better the GOP candidate performed in November.

I would buy into a Dem-leaning environment if we are given data that Shaler township had the same voter registration and education distribution as 2020 or 2022.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

[windjammer]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

I tend to think that way. I have the feeling that the medias are trying to make some narrative about how great youngkin is but Virginia is too dem for that.

[Person Man]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

I tend to think that way. I have the feeling that the medias are trying to make some narrative about how great youngkin is but Virginia is too dem for that.

The narrative is definitely different than 2021.

[Holmes]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

[wbrocks67]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

lol what

[free my dawg]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1704288991883714646

Guzofski was f**king nuts - literally on tape believing demons were real - but this was a shocking result to say the least. I'm starting to get false hope again.

(FWIW I still think the state senate and executive council are Lean R - the maps are gerrymandered to sh*t. All I know is that Cryans will attempt a comeback in EC-2 because that's what he does.)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump

[Duke of York]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

what? Where are you getting this notion from?

[Person Man]

At this point, Democrats have to be pretty heavy favorites to win back the Virginia HoD this year, no?

Maybe, but Dems are also trying their best in Virginia to lose in November.

what? Where are you getting this notion from?

Still obsessed with the lady in my district.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1704288991883714646

Guzofski was f**king nuts - literally on tape believing demons were real

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1704552314223145262

[wbrocks67]

Final votes bump margin up to D+31.0 in PA HD-21, so officially an 8.1% swing from Bidens result (was 7.5% on election night)

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump

The special elections mean nothing, as Democrats have outperformed in almost every single one. This is especially in places where Democrats rely on college educated whites, who turn out in low turnout elections (as opposed to where the Democratic coalition is more minority reliant, in which they tend to underperform in special elections as minorities are less likely to turn out in low turnout elections).

The last poll done here was pretty bad for Trump, and moves my priors a bit. Still, NH is a state where there is often a huge polling shift in the last minute, and could easily be the first state (past the big 7) to flip in a good night for Trump. Also the same poll had Clinton up by 11 in NH in their final poll.

[wbrocks67]

But but but.. I was told by Riverwalk NH was winnable for Trump

The special elections mean nothing, as Democrats have outperformed in almost every single one. This is especially in places where Democrats rely on college educated whites, who turn out in low turnout elections (as opposed to where the Democratic coalition is more minority reliant, in which they tend to underperform in special elections as minorities are less likely to turn out in low turnout elections).

The last poll done here was pretty bad for Trump, and moves my priors a bit. Still, NH is a state where there is often a huge polling shift in the last minute, and could easily be the first state (past the big 7) to flip in a good night for Trump. Also the same poll had Clinton up by 11 in NH in their final poll.

Like I said in the other thread, UNH has had some whacky results, but you can't only include 2016. They accurately hit 2020 on the margin, and also severely underrated *Democrats* in 2022.

[oldtimer]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

[Person Man]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

[oldtimer]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

Oh I doubt that.

The state polling is very bad for Republicans in NH, ME, MN, VA ect, but they still hold OK in the others and have leads in FL, OH, IA, NC, GA, AZ , sometimes large leads.

It's the contradition between Democrats winning NH by 15 points and Republicans winning Ohio by 15 points that I don't like.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.

[Person Man]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.

The fundamentals always change, but if they don’t get worse, this is reasonable.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

Yes, they were also collapsing with people of color, I would say that we are heading for a 2008 situation. However, with the white vote stabilizing, we could be in for a 2012 like situation. Which would probably mean that the big seven are still close, but more like Michigan than Wisconsin. Brandon might even pick up North Carolina and get Kerry margins in Ohio.

That's a bit too much wishful thinking to me.

The fundamentals always change, but if they don’t get worse, this is reasonable.

I would love for that to be true. And if so, that's remarkable news for Sherrod Brown.

[warandwar]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

The amount of writing here on a New Hampshire house election that had less voters than an average city block in nyc is completely unjustifiable

[Radicalneo]

The Democratic overperformance in White areas looks like +10 on whatever Biden got, similar to 2022.

Very bad news for Republicans in the swing states.

What's worse for them is that they are not doing better in Minority areas anymore, we no longer see any of those big GOP gains we got accustomed in 2022.

The amount of writing here on a New Hampshire house election that had less voters than an average city block in nyc is completely unjustifiable

Agree

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Special election in Minnesota watch:

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/charges-minnesota-lawmaker-was-twice-the-legal-limit-at-time-of-arrest

0.16 BAC. Pretty serious.

I do expect there will be calls for her to resign. Incidentally in 2022 her performance sort looks like just on the cusp of possibly competitive and she won by 7 points but was a clear underperformer, but it's a district Walz won by 17 points and even Ellison slightly outran her by winning by 8 points. So really tough to see how this seat flips in a special election.