State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 131211 times)
Duke of York
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« Reply #1150 on: May 15, 2023, 09:34:45 PM »

Interested to see the margin in the Delco state house special election tomorrow. It was Biden 62-37 and Fetterman 64% I think but Dems have not taken it lightly - Shapiro cut a video, Biden released an endorsement, and Dems have spent $1M+ on their candidate (Rs have not spent anywhere close to that). The last two Dems in this seat were mired by scandal so I would assume it's more of a better be safe than sorry situation. But at the same time, PA Dems have also just been on their game - they put lots of money and resources into the Allegheny specials in February when they were all safe D seats too

I expect the margin might be a little lower due to higher Republican turnout but Democrats are framing this very well and it would be a massive upset if they lost.
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they don't love you like i love you
BRTD
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« Reply #1151 on: May 15, 2023, 10:10:27 PM »

If Biden and Fetterman both won this seat by 25+ points, there's absolutely no excuse for a Democratic defeat, although also extremely unlikely. But if Republicans can limit it to just a 15 point loss...well also not a good look but in a low turnout election tough to gauge much from. I guess we'll see.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1152 on: May 16, 2023, 08:03:05 PM »

Yeah, this shouldn't even be close

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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #1153 on: May 16, 2023, 09:23:32 PM »

Yeah, this shouldn't even be close



Boyd currently at +53.8
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1154 on: May 16, 2023, 09:45:41 PM »



Always run like you are a couple points behind. Good for PA Dems taking nothing for granted.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1155 on: May 16, 2023, 10:04:29 PM »

Not really the place to post this but not really worth another thread. Three props for goverment money to build a new arena for the Arizona Coyotes (NHL) go down.

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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1156 on: May 17, 2023, 01:36:43 AM »

Republicans staying classy as always.

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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1157 on: May 18, 2023, 08:40:54 AM »

Lost in some of the kerfuffle was that Dems really did well in PA's HD108 on Tuesday

HD108: R+20 (Trump +32)
HD163: D+21 (Biden +26)

A 12% overperformance from Trumps margin in a red district. Ds did 5% worse than Biden in 163, but that's not too surprising.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1158 on: May 18, 2023, 09:36:24 AM »

Republicans staying classy as always.



In the words of King Arthur in The Holy Grail “you make me sad”.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1159 on: May 22, 2023, 06:32:10 PM »
« Edited: May 22, 2023, 06:35:35 PM by Dr Oz Lost Party! »



Always run like you are a couple points behind. Good for PA Dems taking nothing for granted.

Example #1,983,203 of the PA Dems being an S-tier state party
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1160 on: June 10, 2023, 09:25:45 AM »

Special in Maine HD45 this Tuesday: https://www.wabi.tv/2023/03/16/house-district-45-special-election-announced/

Unlike in most states, the Dems seems have to have a stronger hold on the State Senate than the House, which came close to flipping back in 2020.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #1161 on: June 13, 2023, 03:39:21 PM »

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Epaminondas
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« Reply #1162 on: June 14, 2023, 08:35:21 AM »

Maine HD45 flips to the GOP 52-48

https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1668786891540373504

Maine being unpredictable as usual, though this is a net drop from Trump's 2020 result.
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walleye26
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« Reply #1163 on: July 16, 2023, 08:45:28 AM »

This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #1164 on: July 17, 2023, 07:24:22 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2023, 03:58:53 PM by Kevinstat »

Bath Rep. Sean Paulhus resigns to take register of probate appointment

The special election hasn't been called yet (the Maine Constitution requires an "immediate election" to fill State Senate vacancies but merely says that State House vacancies "may be filled by a new election", and Maine statute requires municipal officers (Board of Selectmen, City Council, etc.) in an affected municipality (so, the Bath City Council in this case, since the district is simply the City of Bath) to notify the Governor of the need to fill the vacancy), but will almost certainly be held on November 7.

Pretty safe D seat nowadays.  The guy who resigned himself won a special election in 2019, 975 votes (66.5%) to 491 (33.5%).  (Maine State Representatives only represent 9,022 people on average based on 2020 census figures, and when you couple that with an irregular election (I'm not sure if there was anything on the Bath municipal ballot) you can get low figures like these.)
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Devils30
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« Reply #1165 on: July 18, 2023, 08:42:17 PM »
« Edited: July 18, 2023, 08:52:25 PM by Devils30 »

This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-state-assembly-24-special-election/

Trump +16, looks like another major GOP underperformance in the suburbs. Dems continue to make gains in the WOW.
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walleye26
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« Reply #1166 on: July 18, 2023, 09:41:31 PM »

This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-state-assembly-24-special-election/

Trump +16, looks like another major GOP underperformance in the suburbs. Dems continue to make gains in the WOW.

It also looks like the Democratic candidate outright won the Menominee Falls portion of the district. I was expecting him to do better in the Ozaukee County portion, but he only lost it by 5 to the GOP candidate. The fact that he got nearly 42% in Germantown is nuts for a Dem. I know it’s only one special election, but yeah, Trump won this by 16 and the GOP candidate winning by 7 is absolutely awful for the WISGOP.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1167 on: July 18, 2023, 10:27:35 PM »

This Tuesday (7/18) will feature a special election in WI assembly district 24 (Grafton, portions of Mequon, the village of Germantown, and parts of Menominee Falls). Trump won this district by 16 in 2020, but Evers narrowed that a few points and Janet only lost it by low double digits.

While the Republican candidate is heavily favored, this is a district trending left. The margin will be interesting to see.

https://decisiondeskhq.com/election-results-wisconsin-state-assembly-24-special-election/

Trump +16, looks like another major GOP underperformance in the suburbs. Dems continue to make gains in the WOW.

It also looks like the Democratic candidate outright won the Menominee Falls portion of the district. I was expecting him to do better in the Ozaukee County portion, but he only lost it by 5 to the GOP candidate. The fact that he got nearly 42% in Germantown is nuts for a Dem. I know it’s only one special election, but yeah, Trump won this by 16 and the GOP candidate winning by 7 is absolutely awful for the WISGOP.

This is a good sign for Tammy Baldwin. If Democrats are doing this well in specials a year out, it's hard to see how she isn't favored next fall.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1168 on: July 19, 2023, 08:20:33 AM »

Another Dem overperformance in a special election... where have I seen this before
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1169 on: July 19, 2023, 09:03:34 AM »

Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.

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Devils30
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« Reply #1170 on: July 19, 2023, 12:08:43 PM »

Another Dem overperformance in a special election... where have I seen this before

The aggregate of GOP underperformances in suburbs/exurbs point to an additional round of Democratic gains coming in Waukesha/Ozaukee (WI) Cumberland (PA), Ottawa (MI), Forsyth (GA) and similar places in TX, NC along with counties like Hamilton (IN), Hunterdon (NJ), Delaware (OH).

How does the GOP offset this? They don't. In theory they can get a lot of working class Hispanics in NV, AZ but they will learn these states are not Florida quite fast.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1171 on: July 20, 2023, 02:27:48 PM »

Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.



I wonder if she is somehow related to our Phil.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #1172 on: August 01, 2023, 08:13:10 PM »

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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1173 on: August 02, 2023, 09:00:32 PM »



Safe D
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Badger
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« Reply #1174 on: August 03, 2023, 08:57:07 AM »

Another special election coming to PA! Safe D seat though.



I wonder if she is somehow related to our Phil.

I'd love to be a fly in the wall for that Thanksgiving dinner. Cheesy
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