State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
Sestak:
So, tonight was all around pretty good for Dems in this department (result in WISC, whatever it may be, notwithstanding).
Next week is much more boring - 3 primaries in Florida and an R vs R race in Georgia.
Luckily we’ll probably have Israeli election results to discuss that day.
Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=288367.0
ON Progressive:
Quote from: Gravelanche on March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 PM
Quote from: Senator ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:13:50 PM
Quote from: Gravelanche on March 26, 2019, 11:07:39 PM
Quote from: Senator ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:05:56 PM
It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.
What makes Kiley preferable?
Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.
Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?
Significantly less.
AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R
Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon:
SD-1 60% in:
Steve Baird
(Party Preference: DEM)
8,606
6.0%
Silke Pflueger
(Party Preference: DEM)
37,940
26.5%
Brian D. Dahle
(Party Preference: REP)
39,726
27.8%
Theodore Dziuba
(Party Preference: REP)
2,662
1.9%
Rex Hime
(Party Preference: REP)
12,812
9.0%
Kevin Kiley
(Party Preference: REP)
41,206
28.8%
If this is seriously going to be R v R, maybe the California Republican Party has finally stopped declining.
Sestak:
Quote from: Senator ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:23:10 PM
Quote from: Gravelanche on March 26, 2019, 11:21:26 PM
Quote from: Senator ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:13:50 PM
Quote from: Gravelanche on March 26, 2019, 11:07:39 PM
Quote from: Senator ON Progressive on March 26, 2019, 11:05:56 PM
It does look like it might just be a Kiley-Dahle race (although any combination involving any combination of Kiley/Dahle/Pflueger is not impossible). Hopefully Kiley wins in that case.
Ah ok then, definitely go Kiley.
What makes Kiley preferable?
Kiley is a bit more moderate (not saying much), and his assembly seat opening up would lead to a possibly competitive special election.
Is HD-06 less republican than HD-01 overall?
Significantly less.
AD-06: 52-41 Trump, trending D
AD-01: 57-36 Trump, trending R
Ah well, go Kiley then (between the two of them).
Also damn, Dalhe's ahead of Pflueger now.
Bakersfield Uber Alles:
There seems to be a lull in returns; I'll work to add in actual vote numbers as well as updated percentages by county.
Alpine has a bit over 100 votes in. Pflueger leads there, as is expected for Alpine. Overall, it's 15-40-24% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 24-63-38 votes Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
El Dorado is still 35-28-19 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. No update on reporting either. 11,372-8,853-6,085 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
Lassen: no votes yet.
Modoc: 9-10-70 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 146-173-1,184 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Not shocking.
Nevada: 10-40-35 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,255-8,754-7,655 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Pflueger is from Truckee, located in Nevada County.
Placer: 41-26-16 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 13,761-8,696-5,233 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Kiley's home county. It's larger than a fair number of the counties in Dahle's district, but the senate district does not include Roseville.
Plumas claims 100% reporting. 14-25-45 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 737-1,265-2,326 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
Sacramento claims nearly 100% reporting, but earlier caveats about Sac County are still in play. The portions of Sac County in this senate district are the more conservative (though somewhat trending Dem) parts of the county. 45-26-10 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 9,022-5,213-1,972 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
Shasta: 16-14-53 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 2,658-2,306-8,651 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
Sierra: 14-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 126-244-424 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. Claims 100% reporting
Siskiyou claims about 50% reporting. 11-26-46 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 837-1,905-3,421 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
Current Totals: 28.8%-26.5%-27.8% Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle. 41,206-37,940-39,726 Kiley-Pflueger-Dahle.
Narrow lead for Kiley and Dahle, but still very much a three-way race between them and Pflueger for the top two spots.
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