It's really impossible to game this out without knowing the situation on the ground. A president who "lost" reelection might have considerable support if the results were seen as illegitimate, or he had the backing of high-ranking military brass and/or Congress.
Yeah, this is what I was about to say. All of these narrowly legalistic readings are of course correct, but if chaff has been thrown into the air about the legitimacy of the election, it feels considerably less clear that the people in the relevant agencies would all agree on whose orders were properly given.
