Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)
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Author Topic: Emerson - Nevada (Everyone, but Biden, trails Trump)  (Read 3782 times)
Vaccinated Russian Bear
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Junior Chimp
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« on: March 31, 2019, 12:34:34 PM »
http://emersonpolling.com/2019/03/31/nevada-2020-biden-and-sanders-lead-democratic-primary-field-trump-looks-to-flip-the-silver-state-red/
Nevada 2020: Biden and Sanders lead Democratic primary field; Trump Looks to Flip the Silver State Red



Quote
President Trump is popular in Nevada, with a chance to flip a state he lost in 2016 by 2 points. The poll showed the President with a 49% approval and 44% disapproval rating in the state. In the general election, Trump trailed only Joe Biden in head to head matchups against leading Democratic candidates (n=719 +/- 3.6%).
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Politician
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2019, 12:35:16 PM »
HA! I knew it! Nevada will vote for Trump while Iowa votes for Sanders because Emerson polls told me so!
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S019
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2019, 12:37:57 PM »
>Early NV polls

Sen. Heller, Heck, and Angle agree with NV polling
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2019, 12:38:05 PM »
Sen. Dean Heller (R) and Gov. Adam Laxalt (R) agree ...
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2019, 01:10:48 PM »
lmao Nevada polling is still garbage.
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OneJ
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2019, 01:17:45 PM »
Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2019, 01:43:49 PM »
Emerson poll
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2019, 01:48:42 PM »
Lets not forget this gem:

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus#.XKELg6R7mM_
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2019, 01:49:50 PM »
Quote from: OneJ on March 31, 2019, 01:17:45 PM
Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


The last poll from Emerson before 2016 election:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


11/4 - 11/5      Clinton +1%
The results: Clinton +2.4%


The last before midterms (NV):
11/1 - 11/4 Rosen +4%
The results: Rosen +5.0%


Emerson was quite good. Add 1-3% to D if you wish, hehe.


The main takeway (for me) is though:
Quote
“This poll shows a pattern in recent polls where Biden outperforms other Democratic candidates among Independent voters against Trump,” says Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll.
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2019, 01:53:55 PM »
Quote from: Russian Bear on March 31, 2019, 01:49:50 PM
Quote from: OneJ on March 31, 2019, 01:17:45 PM
Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


The last poll from Emerson before 2016 election:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


11/4 - 11/5      Clinton +1%
The results: Clinton +2.4%


The last before midterms (NV):
11/1 - 11/4 Rosen +4%
The results: Rosen +5.0%


Emerson was quite good.


The main takeway (for me) is though:
Quote
“This poll shows a pattern in recent polls where Biden outperforms other Democratic candidates among Independent voters against Trump,” says Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll.

Quite good...

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus#.XKELg6R7mM_

Yes, their final poll was good. But their October poll was off by an extreme amount.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2019, 01:58:06 PM »
Beto wasn't even polled here.  Garbage.
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Thatkat04
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2019, 02:02:23 PM »
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/nv/nevada_governor_laxalt_vs_sisolak-6422.html

Honestly, if democrats ever get worried about a Nevada poll, just post the RCP averages from the last ten years. Pollsters still haven't figured out how to poll Nevada, Emerson is no exception.
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Vaccinated Russian Bear
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2019, 02:05:15 PM »
Quote from: Thatkat04 on March 31, 2019, 01:53:55 PM
Quote from: Russian Bear on March 31, 2019, 01:49:50 PM
Quote from: OneJ on March 31, 2019, 01:17:45 PM
Emerson still hasn't learned anything about Nevada. Yawn.


The last poll from Emerson before 2016 election:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson-6004.html


11/4 - 11/5      Clinton +1%
The results: Clinton +2.4%


The last before midterms (NV):
11/1 - 11/4 Rosen +4%
The results: Rosen +5.0%


Emerson was quite good.


The main takeway (for me) is though:
Quote
“This poll shows a pattern in recent polls where Biden outperforms other Democratic candidates among Independent voters against Trump,” says Spencer Kimball, Director of the Emerson Poll.

Quite good...

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/two-emerson-e-polls-republicans-edge-us-senate-governor-races-nevada-new-hampshire-races-come-focus#.XKELg6R7mM_

Yes, their final poll was good. But their October poll was off by an extreme amount.
You'll always find an outlier if you want to. Or you can look at 538:s rating. Whatever. Biden destroys Trump and everyone else.
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An American Tail: Fubart Goes West
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2019, 02:26:55 PM »
Quote from: Thatkat04 on March 31, 2019, 02:02:23 PM
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nv/nevada_mccain_vs_obama-252.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nv/nevada_trump_vs_clinton-5891.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/senate/nv/nevada_senate_heller_vs_rosen-6304.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/nv/nevada_governor_laxalt_vs_sisolak-6422.html

Honestly, if democrats ever get worried about a Nevada poll, just post the RCP averages from the last ten years. Pollsters still haven't figured out how to poll Nevada, Emerson is no exception.

Where’s Icespear and his trusty picture when you need him?
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Woody
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2019, 02:38:03 PM »
Incredibly bad poll for the democrats.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2019, 03:06:53 PM »
Surprised a certain poster hasn’t commented in this thread yet. Tongue

Anyway, we all know how reliable NV polling is. There’s no way Trump wins NV before IA or WI, even if "someone like Sanders or Warren" wins the Democratic nomination.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2019, 03:10:40 PM »
We're 19 months away--but let's add 2 more points to the Democratic total.  The Culinary Workers Union overdelivers and is an awesome machine.
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Skye
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2019, 03:12:02 PM »
Ah sweet NV, the place where polls go to die.

That said, I don't believe this is an impossible state for Trump. If he wins the popular vote, he certainly can win the state.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2019, 03:13:06 PM »
Overall, I'm impressed with most posts in this thread. Seems most people on Atlas now understand the nature of NV polling, so maybe my username won't be necessary anymore. Smiley Then again, we'll see what people say when polls in 2020 still show Nevada voting to the right of Florida and Iowa, which is totally possible, lol.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2019, 03:16:24 PM »
After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2019, 03:18:50 PM »
Quote from: Arch on March 31, 2019, 03:16:24 PM
After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

Dems can still win without NV, as long as they hold CO and VA
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2019, 04:00:10 PM »
Quote from: Arch on March 31, 2019, 03:16:24 PM
After so many years, people still don't learn their lesson about NV polling.

Tbf, NV polls underestimating Democrats is a very recent phenomenon:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjjIL-MZJOY&t=33m37s
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Brittain33
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2019, 04:41:58 PM »
This poll gives Trump a 49% approval rating in Nevada—much higher than the same poll had in recent months.

Whether you believe it or not, his improved performance here is linked to a 49% approval.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: March 31, 2019, 05:33:41 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on March 31, 2019, 04:41:58 PM
This poll gives Trump a 49% approval rating in Nevada—much higher than the same poll had in recent months.

Whether you believe it or not, his improved performance here is linked to a 49% approval.

Yes, and it's very inconsistent with Emerson's other recent results:

US (Mar 17-18): 43/50

PA (Mar 26-28): 41/51
IA (Mar 21-24): 42/51
WI (Mar 15-17): 41/49
MI (Mar 7-10): 40/52
SC (Feb 28-Mar 2): 50/44

Outliers happen.  I have no doubt this is one of them.
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UWS
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2019, 05:39:49 PM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on March 31, 2019, 02:38:03 PM
Incredibly bad poll for the democrats.

Except for Biden.
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