Turkish local elections, 31 March 2019

[Aurelio21]

CHP surpasses AKP
CHP: 4141200 48.71%
AKP: 4140306 48.70%

This is to good to be true. Honestly, I am expecting RT Erdogan to either fire the CHP candidates ASAP, or declare his Party the winner anyway.
Maybe he should hire a certain jobless former Governor of Wisconsin or the NC GOP how to rectify electoral losses.

This isnt a defeat for Erdogan, the AK Parti+MHP is still at 51.7% of the vote across Turkey.
Erdogan already lost Istanbul and Ankara in the 2016 referendum, and in truth he doesnt need them. Rural pious Framers reproduce more than secular academics after all.
 

1) I am far from interpreting this result as a defeat for him. His party stayed consistent with her position, only the MHP(Party of the ultranationalist grey wolfes) got absorbed into the AKP. Heck, just look what the NC and WI GOP are doing in country which is the textbook definition of a "Democracy". We all know what happens next in turkey with a guy in charge who cannot lose.
2) To quote Mr Dshugashvily better known as J.P. "Uncle Joe" Stalin: He votes does not count, it is he who count does count! If certain twitter feeds like soldiers voting in Kurd communites while the inhabitants have disappeared from the registry are remotely true:
3) state news agencies had stopped reporting the processing of the ballots as soon as the AKP candidate declared victory. Come on, this rigging technique is lame, the last time it worked was in Mexico 1988.

@mods: Please delete this thread as this election obviously is a sham.

[pilskonzept]

@mods: Please delete this thread as this election obviously is a sham.

It isn't. The Turkish institutions may be - in the sense that there are no real check and balances anymore - but the election was real, and relatively free if decidedly unfair.

The basic electoral geography has been stable since at least 2002.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

AKP deciding right now whether to allow CHP to take Istanbul or modify the results to give Yildirim a slight win

https://twitter.com/_iwdafy/status/1112461628946202624?s=21

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

[Aurelio21]

@mods: Please delete this thread as this election obviously is a sham.

It isn't. The Turkish institutions may be - in the sense that there are no real check and balances anymore - but the election was real, and relatively free if decidedly unfair.

I do not doubt that there was a real election. And that except maybe in kurdish areas where some "irregularites" as mentioned above.

If you want to believe your venered RT Erdogan and his AKP clique play by the rules, than claim this. Donald Trump wanted the counting in Arizona and Florida to stop when his partisans where leading. The Erdoganites declare themself victory and the Turkish TV stops counting. This is for any non-Erdogan-lovers indication enough his party tries to rigg the election.

[Aurelio21]

While i also detest Erdogans policies,i think it is wrong to say that the reason why he is in office is electoral fraud. This guy is legitimately popular with Turks, as not only the last like 15 elections have shown, but also even reputable western polling companies.
I mean, heck just look at your country: Even the Turks voting in Germany, in a liberal democracy where fraud would not be possible and where the turks have access to a free media, they still vote with 60+% for Erdogan....

I am living in Germany. Since Erdogan consolidated his power in 2016, critical ethnic turks and kurds which travelled to turkey where incarcerated. Does the name "Denis Yücel" ring a bell? Until recently, the DITIB organisation(a subsidiary of the turkish education ministry) was in many parts of Germany the main supplier of religious schooling in our state school system. Do you get a grasp what I am pointing at? Erdogan has a lot of influence here in Germany and plays perfectly with the emotions of turks abroad.

I do not believe a second that these "elections" change anything. Erdogan and thee AKP cannot be turned out of government as long as there is only a mild recession. They are (perceived) as stability guarantee compared with the governments preceding her. Thus the CHP as party of the "Ancien Regime" is needed for playing perfectly the role of Emanuel Goldstein in Erdogan's Orwellian schemes.

[pilskonzept]

@mods: Please delete this thread as this election obviously is a sham.

It isn't. The Turkish institutions may be - in the sense that there are no real check and balances anymore - but the election was real, and relatively free if decidedly unfair.

I do not doubt that there was a real election. And that except maybe in kurdish areas where some "irregularites" as mentioned above.

If you want to believe your venered RT Erdogan and his AKP clique play by the rules, than claim this. Donald Trump wanted the counting in Arizona and Florida to stop when his partisans where leading. The Erdoganites declare themself victory and the Turkish TV stops counting. This is for any non-Erdogan-lovers indication enough his party tries to rigg the election.

Of course it was rigged, but nevertheless real. Actual dictatorships do not allow the opposition to come close to winning.

[pilskonzept]

While i also detest Erdogans policies,i think it is wrong to say that the reason why he is in office is electoral fraud. This guy is legitimately popular with Turks, as not only the last like 15 elections have shown, but also even reputable western polling companies.
I mean, heck just look at your country: Even the Turks voting in Germany, in a liberal democracy where fraud would not be possible and where the turks have access to a free media, they still vote with 60+% for Erdogan....

I am living in Germany. Since Erdogan consolidated his power in 2016, critical ethnic turks and kurds which travelled to turkey where incarcerated. Does the name "Denis Yücel" ring a bell? Until recently, the DITIB organisation(a subsidiary of the turkish education ministry) was in many parts of Germany the main supplier of religious schooling in our state school system. Do you get a grasp what I am pointing at? Erdogan has a lot of influence here in Germany and plays perfectly with the emotions of turks abroad.

I do not believe a second that these "elections" change anything. Erdogan and thee AKP cannot be turned out of government as long as there is only a mild recession. They are (perceived) as stability guarantee compared with the governments preceding her. Thus the CHP as party of the "Ancien Regime" is needed for playing perfectly the role of Emanuel Goldstein in Erdogan's Orwellian schemes.

Oh, I don't disagree.

[Aurelio21]

While i also detest Erdogans policies,i think it is wrong to say that the reason why he is in office is electoral fraud. This guy is legitimately popular with Turks, as not only the last like 15 elections have shown, but also even reputable western polling companies.
I mean, heck just look at your country: Even the Turks voting in Germany, in a liberal democracy where fraud would not be possible and where the turks have access to a free media, they still vote with 60+% for Erdogan....

I am living in Germany. Since Erdogan consolidated his power in 2016, critical ethnic turks and kurds which travelled to turkey where incarcerated. Does the name "Denis Yücel" ring a bell? Until recently, the DITIB organisation(a subsidiary of the turkish education ministry) was in many parts of Germany the main supplier of religious schooling in our state school system. Do you get a grasp what I am pointing at? Erdogan has a lot of influence here in Germany and plays perfectly with the emotions of turks abroad.

I do not believe a second that these "elections" change anything. Erdogan and thee AKP cannot be turned out of government as long as there is only a mild recession. They are (perceived) as stability guarantee compared with the governments preceding her. Thus the CHP as party of the "Ancien Regime" is needed for playing perfectly the role of Emanuel Goldstein in Erdogan's Orwellian schemes.

Precisely, you make perfectly clear why erdogan is so popular among the naive zombies that make up the 51% of Turkey, the reason why he keeps winning elections. However nothing you say suggests he is actually unpopular and is only keeping himself in power through fraud.

To both pre-posters: I had written somethin About turkey descending into a new "dictatorship" when my log-In expired.

@pilskozept: Sorry for suggesting you like this Erdogan bully guy. I like hyperbolic discussion a lot to underline my opinions, and to destroy people who really like guys like him.

First of all, he is rigging elections via rural precincts with 800 % turn-out  and soldiers voting instead of kurds. These measures are mild, and rather reflect the balance of power within Turkey. Plus media manipulation like Mexico 1988.

Note thas even if the "opposition" had a miracle result of 53% to 47% Mr Erdogan would stay in power as all the relevant institutions are in his hand.


Just compare him with an historical modell: The Fall of the Roman Republic. Technically, Rome stayed an Republic until the late 3rd century. Augustus accepted formally only the title of "First Citizen" or Princebs. Later he earned himself after "his outstanding military victories (by Aggripina)" the honorary title of permanent army commander comparable to a field marshall. Or "Emperor". He could not stop the Roman Senate of naming him "pater patriae" and "pontifex maximus"....


just wait a second: All these titles are now in Hindsight titles of head of states: Emperor, Prince, Father of the Fatherland, Pope(=Pontifex Maximus). Thus only in hindsight you can defenitely point out that from Augustus on there was a central Roman Ruler instead of two Consuls watching over each other.


Get my point: Descending into a dictatorship is not binary, as dictators prefer to veil their unambigous rulership with democratic rituals of the former republic. This does not necessarily mean that there is always a central figurehead. Just look what happens in Kentucky, North Carolina and hopefully not any longer in Wisconsin.

PS: I do not regard the CHP as "opposition party", as mentioned above. Look at their presidential candidates which amalgate the worst personal traits of Hillary Clinton, Walter Mondale and Mitt Romney. The various PKK-incarnations are needed as boogeyman for the "average Joe" justifiying Mr Erdogan's continued power grabbing process like firing Mayors and now simply declaring election results as "null and void". Or introducing a new supervisory body for big cities via decree "because of the thread of PKK terror".  

[pilskonzept]

PS: I do not regard the CHP as "opposition party", as mentioned above. Look at their presidential candidates which amalgate the worst personal traits of Hillary Clinton, Walter Mondale and Mitt Romney.  

THIS. The opposition's lack of inspiring leaders - and of a convincing narrative, I guess - are a big part of the AKP's success.

It seems Erdogan has sort-of-admitted defeat in Istanbul.

[Aurelio21]

PS: I do not regard the CHP as "opposition party", as mentioned above. Look at their presidential candidates which amalgate the worst personal traits of Hillary Clinton, Walter Mondale and Mitt Romney.  

THIS. The opposition's lack of inspiring leaders - and of a convincing narrative, I guess - are a big part of the AKP's success.

It seems Erdogan has sort-of-admitted defeat in Istanbul.

He indeed has admitted the defeat. Yet his power core (army, rural dwellers, justice) has remained completely intact. According to the latest figures, the AKP has mobilized their electoral base nearly as good as in the last elections. Yet the more secular ally MHP has halved its result thus binding them even more to him.

The AKP electorate will defend Erdogan to their last drop of blood unless he cannot sustain the islamic copy of the european welfare state combined with emotional nostalgia to the Osman Empire. The secular "social-democratic" CHP is simply a non-viable alternative due to many reasons(e g seen as vassal of external influences and western capitalism).

Just wait until he stages the next "coup against Turkey". I give the opposition at most 1 year enjoying their mirage victory.


At uritzuzu: Just ask breakfeast concierge uh Governor Roy Cooper how much fun it is to govern against a via gerrymandering self-empowered NC GOP. This is how the newly elected soon to be in name only mayors will feel. Only drastically worse as Erdogan will use his decree pen and surpreme-court-justices serving as long as it pleases him to show them who runs the show.

[pilskonzept]

He indeed has admitted the defeat. Yet his power core (army, rural dwellers, justice) has remained completely intact. According to the latest figures, the AKP has mobilized their electoral base nearly as good as in the last elections. Yet the more secular ally MHP has halved its result thus binding them even more to him.

Voters who cared more about secularism went over to MHP splinter Iyi. Those who cared more about fascism stayed with MHP.

The AKP electorate will defend Erdogan to their last drop of blood unless he cannot sustain the islamic copy of the european welfare state combined with emotional nostalgia to the Osman Empire.

Actually, no. They will defend the muscular nationalist state, but not necessarily Erdogan himself.

The secular "social-democratic" CHP is simply a non-viable alternative due to many reasons(e g seen as vassal of external influences and western capitalism).

"is seen as" by voters who are not part of the old secular elite rather than "is", but yes.

Just wait until he stages the next "coup against Turkey".

Most western observers would have put their money on the coupists back in 2016.

I give the opposition at most 1 year enjoying their mirage victory.

Agree. But it still makes a difference.

[Mike88]

Results are starting to be updated again.

[ON Progressive]

Istanbul has been called for the CHP!

It really is nice to see the Turkish opposition finally have a successful election.

[Walmart_shopper]

Istanbul has been called for the CHP!

It really is nice to see the Turkish opposition finally have a successful election.

Although success in this case is limited almost entirely to Europhile big cities even as the rest of the country continued its reflexive support for the AKP. But a limited victory, chipping away at AKP hegemony, is not nothing. The question is whether they can actually beat Erdogen in a national election, which doesn't appear any more likely today than it did a week ago.

[pilskonzept]

The question is whether they can actually beat Erdogen in a national election, which doesn't appear any more likely today than it did a week ago.

This.

However as i and others have pointed out this was a revolt of the secular urban middle class. Not of the country.

And this.

The Worst economic Crisis in Turkey since 2008 has only caused Erdogans Support to drop by only 0.9% to 51.6% of the Vote Nationwide.

Still not as bad as the economy of the 1980s and 1990s. That's basically the AKP's pull factor. (Among ethnic Turks, at least. Among Kurds, it's also about the 80s and 90s, but not so much about the economy.) The push factor is clear enough.

Makes you wonder what can actually remove this President.  

Most likely an intra-party coup.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's to hoping the trashy Kemalists lose in 2024!

[IceAgeComing]

Here's to hoping the trashy Kemalists lose in 2024!

supporting authoritarian religious bigots to own the libs

[LoneStarDem]

Erdogan will remain as President until he dies.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's to hoping the trashy Kemalists lose in 2024!

supporting authoritarian religious bigots to own the libs

Why would I want to own the libs when in fact I am a lib myself?

[Donnie]

Game over in Istanbul mayoral race.
According to official today certified results, Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) İmamoğlu received 4,169,765 votes while the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) candidate Binali Yıldırım garnered 4,156,036 votes. The difference between the two is 13,729.

https://www.trtworld.com/turkey/chp-s-ekrem-imamoglu-becomes-new-istanbul-mayor-25941

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/chps-imamoglu-gets-mandate-as-istanbul-mayor-as-akp-appeals-to-results-142738

[Aurelio21]

Anyone who really believed Erdogan will accept the defeat  may continue to do so. And believe in pink unicorns giving them 100 bucks a day.

In the real world, he does everything to deligitimize the result, espacially in Istanbul:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-election/erdogan-says-to-keep-up-election-challenge-but-turkey-must-move-on-idUSKCN1RU156

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/re-election-in-istanbul-is-a-matter-of-survival-mhp-leader-says-142818

I have forgotten where I read it, but he plans a law that municipal administrations cannot spend more than the equivalent of 12 million $ any longer, and has already threatened to appoint caretakers instead of the elected mayors.

[Walmart_shopper]

Istanbul election anulled and will be repeated.

YSC (electoral commission) has accepted AK Parti appeal regarding the result.

They are coming up with some nonsense about "FETÖ" rigging.

Erdogen never loses. It's why he never loses.

[Walmart_shopper]

Istanbul election anulled and will be repeated.

YSC (electoral commission) has accepted AK Parti appeal regarding the result.

They are coming up with some nonsense about "FETÖ" rigging.

Erdogen never loses. It's why he never loses.

I would like to think that the Turkish people wont stand for this. But then i remember he pulled the same trick in 2015 and it worked.   

He also turned an actual military coup attempt into a sweeping consolidation of power in media, politics, and culture. I hardly think a mayoral election is beyond his transformative abilities.

[Walmart_shopper]

Also, can someone explain how a mildly Islamist and less mildly right wing party is so relatively successful in a self-consciously secular and cosmopolitan place like Istanbul? Are there really that many AKP voters hiding under rocks along the Bosporus?