bush vs. gore, 1988 scenario
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  bush vs. gore, 1988 scenario
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Author Topic: bush vs. gore, 1988 scenario  (Read 5053 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: November 14, 2005, 01:44:47 PM »

in 1988 democrats nominate young, moderate, tennesee senator al gore for the office of the presidency.

gore chooses fellow senator paul simon of illinois as his running mate.  simon is an amiable guy and has the  experience that gore lacks.

as expected, the gop nominates vice president george bush.  bush stretches out his vp search for many weeks.  young senator dan quayle, old pro bob dole, and governors jim thompson and george deukmejian are among the top contenders.

during convention week, bush springs a smll surprise by naming maine moderate senator william cohen as his running mate.  conseravtives, angry at the selection of a moderate, start a mini protest inside the convention hall and place the name of senator jesse helms into nomination for vp.  cohen easily defeats helms and the delagates depart the convention generally united behind the bush/cohen ticket.

what would a gore/simon vs. bush/cohen race have looked like?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #1 on: November 14, 2005, 02:00:29 PM »

polls throughout the race continually indicate a neck and neck contest, with neither ticket gaining more than a 2-3 point lead.  most americans seem to generally like both tickets.

the upper midwest becomes the prime battleground.  typically these states are heavily republican, but the farm crisis has soured many in the great plains on republicans.  the moderate gore and the friendly midwesterner simon gain a following in the formerly republican heartland.

election day dawns with most polls indicating a statistical dead heat.

finally at 3am the gore/simon ticket is declared the winner.



gore/simon: 50.8%, 294 EVs
bush/cohen: 48.8%, 244 EVs

but the bush/cohen team refused to concede defeat.  the state of montana, south dakota, iowa and new mexico (combined 20 EVs) were determined by less than 1,000 votes each, setting up automatic recounts in each state.

in addition, there are reports of massive vote fraud in the state of louisiana (10 EVs).  the state was won by gore by about 2,500 votes.
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #2 on: November 14, 2005, 03:16:08 PM »

Bush/Cohen            281  53%
Gore/Simon             257  47%

After 8 years as a very solid Vice President with the very popular President, Ronald Reagan, as well as the other public offices he has held and done well in, George HW Bush is widely regarded as experienced and capable.  Senator William Cohen is moderate, but very personable and respected.  Ronald Reagan helps Bush immensley in California.

Senator Al Gore, at this point in his career, is regarded as young and ambitious, and as an up and comer, however, at this time, not ready for the Presidency, in the minds of most voters.  Paul Simon adds some depth to the ticket, and helps with the liberal element.           

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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: November 14, 2005, 06:39:18 PM »

There's a very good shot Gore would have won.  Dukakis lost this thing, remember, Bush didn't win it.  Reagan's coattails are vastly overstated.

Take a look at this:



Dukakis up 17% at midsummer.

A decent candidate would have held that bounce and won.  But alas, Dukakis was one of the worst candidates in modern American history.

Bentsen certainly would have beaten Bush.  Gore's age and lack of experience would have hurt him a bit, but in the end, he pulls through.

I also think Gore may pick Bentsen instead of Simon.
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Ronald Reagan
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« Reply #4 on: November 16, 2005, 05:34:46 PM »


Gore/Simon - 191
Bush/Cohen - 347
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2005, 09:51:09 AM »

id be interested to see how you all would finish my story.
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Lincoln Republican
Winfield
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« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2005, 01:59:46 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2005, 02:52:16 PM by Winfield »

id be interested to see how you all would finish my story.

To continue the story

Official, judicial, statewide recounts are held in Montana, South Dakota, Iowa, New Mexico.  The procedure for the recounts is agreed to in advance by both parties.  Both parties have representatives to verify that the procedures are followed down the line, and that the recount is accurate.  Both parties agree in advance to abide by the results of the recounts.

The recounts swing all of these states to Bush by close margins.  Since both parties have agreed in advance to the procedures and to the results, Bush is declared the winner in these states.

The electoral vote count now stands at
Gore/Simon          274
Bush/Cohen         264 

The automatic recount in Louisiana reduced the Gore margin in Louisiana to about 1,600 votes.

The Republicans exhausted all legal avenues available to them in an attempt to try to prove massive voter fraud in Louisiana, going through state circuit courts, state supreme court, and to the U.S. supreme court.  They alleged there were tens of thousands of invalid ballots cast.  Although much evidence was produced along this line, the courts would not go so far as to have the election overturned. 

The best the Republicans could do was to get a statewide recount, which was to include even the disputed ballots.  This recount resulted in a win for Gore of 537 votes, and Gore is declared as the winner of the election and becomes the President Elect.

Late election polls and even exit polls showed Bush as the clear winner in Louisiana.

In the minds of Republicans, the Louisiana Democrats had stole the election. 

Two months after Al Gore is sworn in as President and Paul Simon is sworn in as Vice President, under intensive interrogation from the Louisiana state Attorney General's Department, a high ranking Democratic Party member in Louisiana admits to conspiring to commit voter fraud.  As it turned out, he and other Democratic Party members had bribed election officials, known to be friendly to the Democratic Party, in key areas of the state to cast thousands of ballots for voters who had not shown up to vote.  This had the result of padding Gore's vote total by up to 180,000 votes, giving him the win.

President Gore denounces these "criminals and hoodlums"  and vows they will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law.

By then, however, the legitimacy of the Gore Presidency is in tatters.     

There is a re-match in 1992, in which former Vice President George HW Bush/Senator William Cohen defeat President Al Gore/Vice President Paul Simon by a large margin.

   

 



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