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« on: March 25, 2019, 09:47:11 PM » |
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Yes, there is no reason to believe that the GOP cannot achieve 90% vote shares among non-college whites in wide swathes of the country just like Democrats get 90% of the African American vote. Certainly 80% non-college white is a figure that is going to be reached in much of the upper south and lower Midwest in the next decade. In Missouri in 2012, only 34 of 114 counties voted more then 70% GOP, in 2016 that went up to 87 of 114, note since most of these counties have some African Americans, the GOP needs to win close to 80% of the white vote to get 70% overall. In Ohio, 30 counties voted over 70% GOP in 2016 vs 6 in 2012, Michigan and Wisconsin are about 10 years behind Missouri in this transition.
In Missouri, not a single county voted over 80% GOP in 2012, in 2016 20 counties did, in those counties, the GOP certainly reached 90% of the white vote. I expect the GOP to hit 80% of the total vote and therefore 90% of the non-college white across the the entire of the upper south and lower Midwest within the next decade with the upper midwest following the lower midwest soon after.
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