2018 if the second-place gubernatorial primary finishers won

[Dr. MB]

(or, if there was only 1 primary candidate, the lt. gov nominee)

I was wondering a little about this, so, what would have changed?

(here's the races btw)

Alabama: Tommy Battle (R) vs. Sue Bell Cobb (D)
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R) vs. Debra Call (D)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) vs. Steve Farley (D)
Arkansas: Jan Morgan (R) vs. Leticia Sanders (D)
California: Travis Allen (R) vs. Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
Colorado: Victor Mitchell (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)
Connecticut: Mark Boughton (R) vs. Joe Ganim (D)
Florida: Adam Putnam (R) vs. Gwen Graham (D)
Georgia: Casey Cagle (R) vs. Stacey Evans (D)
Hawaii: John Carroll (R) vs. Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Raul Labrador (R) vs. A.J. Balukoff (D)
Illinois: Jeanne Ives (R) vs. Daniel Biss (D)
Iowa: Adam Gregg (R) vs. Cathy Glasson (D)
Kansas: Jeff Colyer (R) vs. Carl Brewer (D)
Maine: Garrett Mason (R) vs. Adam Cote (D)
Maryland: Boyd Rutherford (R) vs. Rushern Baker (D)
Massachusetts: Scott Lively (R) vs. Bob Massie (D)
Michigan: Brian Calley (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Erin Murphy (D)
Nebraska: Krystal Gabel (R) vs. Vanessa Gayle Ward (D)
Nevada: Dan Schwartz (R) vs. Chris Giunchigliani (D)
New Hampshire: Chris Sununu* (R) vs. Steve Marchand (D)
New Mexico: Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) vs. Jeff Apodaca (D)
New York: Julie Killian (R) vs. Cynthia Nixon (D)
Ohio: Mary Taylor (R) vs. Dennis Kucinich (D)
Oklahoma: Mick Cornett (R) vs. Connie Johnson (D)
Oregon: Sam Carpenter (R) vs. Ed Jones (D)
Pennsylvania: Paul Mango (R) vs. John Fetterman (D)
Rhode Island: Patricia Morgan (R) vs. Matt Brown (D)
South Carolina: John Warren (R) vs. Marguerite Willis (D)
South Dakota: Marty Jackley (R) vs. Michelle Lavallee (D)
Tennessee: Randy Boyd (R) vs. Craig Fitzhugh (D)
Texas: Barbara Krueger (R) vs. Andrew White (D)
Vermont: Keith Stern (R) vs. James Ehlers (D)
Wisconsin: Robert Meyer (R) vs. Mahlon Mitchell (D)
Wyoming: Foster Friess (R) vs. Michael Green (D)

*-NH doesn't have a Lt. Gov and Molly Kelly placed second from write-ins, so....


Anyway, I'm thinking there are a few definite/probable flips:

Connecticut - Boughton was more moderate than Stefanowski, and Ganim was a corrupt mayor who served prison time, so, uh, yeah, this is pretty obvious.

Kansas - I have no doubt in my mind that Colyer would've defeated Kelly if he'd won the primary, and he would've beat Brewer by even more.

Maryland - Without the personal popularity of Hogan, Maryland would've reverted to its normal voting pattern.

Massachusetts - Yeah, Scott Lively would've been absolutely destroyed in a general.

Vermont - see Maryland

A few more would be worth looking at:

Georgia - Seeing how devastatingly he lost the primary runoff, I feel like Cagle could have been the type of guy to ignore the warning signs and forgo a lot of campaigning. Evans wouldn't have had all the star power of Abrams but I doubt there are too many who voted Abrams who wouldn't have supported her. Turnout would've been key.

Idaho - Balukoff was more moderate than Jordan (and he did decently well for a Democrat in a solid red state in 2014), and Labrador was definitely the weakest candidate Idaho Republicans could've propped up. I wouldn't write it off as a flip opportunity, but in all likelihood Labrador would've won, however by a significantly reduced margin.

Oregon - Ed Jones is a weirdo conservadem and would've likely lost if Knute was the nominee, but this is Sam Carpenter we're talking about, the guy who's campaign slogan was "Make Oregon Great Again". Anyway, Carpenter's chances of victory here would've been way too close for comfort.

Texas - Barbara Krueger is a retired teacher with zero fundraising, and it's not like Texas Democrats did terribly last year. White would've probably been favored.

Wyoming - The Satan of Wyoming still would've won, sadly, but by a lot less than Mark Gordon did, that's for sure.

Also, Cornett and Taylor would've done a lot better than Stitt and DeWine did, just because of the weaknesses of their opponents. Jackley also would've won by a lot more (a lot of Sutton's support came from Republicans who voted for him in the primary and Jackley himself didn't make an endorsement).

Other than that, I feel like it would've probably gone about the same.

[Sestak]

I agree with most of those, but I would add - dare I say it - Florida to the "worth looking at" list. Putnam may not have been able to turn out the base as effectively, Graham may have had more appeal to some moderates, so who knows how it would have gone.

I'd also think Arizona would have been much closer without Ducey's popularity as a factor. Actually, doing some brief research, apparently Ken Bennett literally ran to oppose the teacher pay raises and seems like sort of a nutjob. Farley would've had a reasonable chance here, I think.

In Iowa Gregg probably still wins narrowly, he doesn't seem totally batsh**t.

In MI El-Sayed - Calley is probably closer, though I do still think El-Sayed wins it. In WI Mitchell probably gets a more comfortable margin against Meyer.

And in MN Strong Candidate™ Tim Pawlenty would win easily.

[Dr. MB]

I agree with most of those, but I would add - dare I say it - Florida to the "worth looking at" list. Putnam may not have been able to turn out the base as effectively, Graham may have had more appeal to some moderates, so who knows how it would have gone.

Yeah, I agree. If Graham hadn't flopped on her running mate choice like Gillum did she probably would've won (against DeSantis at least). Putnam seems like he might also have had the problem of turning out the base as much as DeSantis did, but then again both he and Graham would've had more appeal to moderates.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I agree with most of your points. Maryland, Massachusetts and Vermont are indeed the obvious ones, as is Kansas from the other side. Connecticut would've been close but probably a Republican victory. I think that Abrams really energized African Americans so I doubt Evans would defeat Cagle, and I really doubt Oregon voters would choose a far-right conservative over a less far-right conservative, and Labrador would probably win easily in Oregon. Texas I think would be a very good pickup opportunity, though still close.

One opportunity I wouldn't discount is Arizona- I doubt Farley would be worse than Garcia, and without an incumbent Governor (and a pretty extreme opponent) Arizona could very well vote D due to national trends like it voted for SoS or Senate. And yeah, with Florida so close anything could happen.

(Also, New Mexico would be closer without electoral titan Michelle Lujan Grisham and in Hawaii Hanabusa would literally break 100%)

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Vermont probably would have flipped. Stern is a much more conservative guy, and I would think Vermonters would not want that.

[S019]

(or, if there was only 1 primary candidate, the lt. gov nominee)

I was wondering a little about this, so, what would have changed?

(here's the races btw)

Alabama: Tommy Battle (R) vs. Sue Bell Cobb (D)
Alaska: Mead Treadwell (R) vs. Debra Call (D)
Arizona: Ken Bennett (R) vs. Steve Farley (D)
Arkansas: Jan Morgan (R) vs. Leticia Sanders (D)
California: Travis Allen (R) vs. Antonio Villaraigosa (D)
Colorado: Victor Mitchell (R) vs. Cary Kennedy (D)
Connecticut: Mark Boughton (R) vs. Joe Ganim (D)
Florida: Adam Putnam (R) vs. Gwen Graham (D) (Nelson still loses)
Georgia: Casey Cagle (R) vs. Stacey Evans (D)
Hawaii: John Carroll (R) vs. Colleen Hanabusa (D)
Idaho: Raul Labrador (R) vs. A.J. Balukoff (D)
Illinois: Jeanne Ives (R) vs. Daniel Biss (D)
Iowa: Adam Gregg (R) vs. Cathy Glasson (D)
Kansas: Jeff Colyer (R) vs. Carl Brewer (D)
Maine: Garrett Mason (R) vs. Adam Cote (D)
Maryland: Boyd Rutherford (R) vs. Rushern Baker (D)
Massachusetts: Scott Lively (R) vs. Bob Massie (D)
Michigan: Brian Calley (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Minnesota: Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Erin Murphy (D)
Nebraska: Krystal Gabel (R) vs. Vanessa Gayle Ward (D)
Nevada: Dan Schwartz (R) vs. Chris Giunchigliani (D)
New Hampshire: Chris Sununu* (R) vs. Steve Marchand (D)
New Mexico: Michelle Garcia Holmes (R) vs. Jeff Apodaca (D)
New York: Julie Killian (R) vs. Cynthia Nixon (D)
Ohio: Mary Taylor (R) vs. Dennis Kucinich (D)
Oklahoma: Mick Cornett (R) vs. Connie Johnson (D)
Oregon: Sam Carpenter (R) vs. Ed Jones (D)
Pennsylvania: Paul Mango (R) vs. John Fetterman (D)
Rhode Island: Patricia Morgan (R) vs. Matt Brown (D)
South Carolina: John Warren (R) vs. Marguerite Willis (D)
South Dakota: Marty Jackley (R) vs. Michelle Lavallee (D)
Tennessee: Randy Boyd (R) vs. Craig Fitzhugh (D)
Texas: Barbara Krueger (R) vs. Andrew White (D)
Vermont: Keith Stern (R) vs. James Ehlers (D)
Wisconsin: Robert Meyer (R) vs. Mahlon Mitchell (D)
Wyoming: Foster Friess (R) vs. Michael Green (D)

*-NH doesn't have a Lt. Gov and Molly Kelly placed second from write-ins, so....


Anyway, I'm thinking there are a few definite/probable flips:

Connecticut - Boughton was more moderate than Stefanowski, and Ganim was a corrupt mayor who served prison time, so, uh, yeah, this is pretty obvious.

Kansas - I have no doubt in my mind that Colyer would've defeated Kelly if he'd won the primary, and he would've beat Brewer by even more.

Maryland - Without the personal popularity of Hogan, Maryland would've reverted to its normal voting pattern.

Massachusetts - Yeah, Scott Lively would've been absolutely destroyed in a general.

Vermont - see Maryland

A few more would be worth looking at:

Georgia - Seeing how devastatingly he lost the primary runoff, I feel like Cagle could have been the type of guy to ignore the warning signs and forgo a lot of campaigning. Evans wouldn't have had all the star power of Abrams but I doubt there are too many who voted Abrams who wouldn't have supported her. Turnout would've been key.

Idaho - Balukoff was more moderate than Jordan (and he did decently well for a Democrat in a solid red state in 2014), and Labrador was definitely the weakest candidate Idaho Republicans could've propped up. I wouldn't write it off as a flip opportunity, but in all likelihood Labrador would've won, however by a significantly reduced margin.

Oregon - Ed Jones is a weirdo conservadem and would've likely lost if Knute was the nominee, but this is Sam Carpenter we're talking about, the guy who's campaign slogan was "Make Oregon Great Again". Anyway, Carpenter's chances of victory here would've been way too close for comfort.

Texas - Barbara Krueger is a retired teacher with zero fundraising, and it's not like Texas Democrats did terribly last year. White would've probably been favored.

Wyoming - The Satan of Wyoming still would've won, sadly, but by a lot less than Mark Gordon did, that's for sure.

Also, Cornett and Taylor would've done a lot better than Stitt and DeWine did, just because of the weaknesses of their opponents. Jackley also would've won by a lot more (a lot of Sutton's support came from Republicans who voted for him in the primary and Jackley himself didn't make an endorsement).

Other than that, I feel like it would've probably gone about the same.

[Canis]

AL Safe R probably would have won by a little less than Ivey did
AK: Safe R
AZ Don't know much about either candidates probably would have been a tossup with potential for Farley to flip it
AR: Safe R
CA: Super Safe D Allen is insane and had allegations of abuse to his ex wife Villa had his issues being a lobbyist and all but against a candidate like Allen that would have been a non factor
CO Likely D Don't really see Kennedy losing this
CT Safe R Ganim was a felon and Boughton was a FF moderate
FL Pure tossup but tilt r I think Gwen would have likely lost Gillum and Nelson helped each other by helping other demographics turn out for each other don't see Gwen doing that but she certainly could pull of a win
 GA Evans is boring and Cagle is scandal ridden probably low turnout Id peg it as a tossup with cagle being favored
HI Safe D lol
ID Likely R reasons mentioned in other posts here
IL Safe D Ives is a pretty conservative candidate and Rauner who ran as a moderate got blown out of the water by Pritzker and Biss should be a stronger candidate than Pritzker lol
IA Lean R
Kansas Safe R
Maine Likely D Cote is Great candidate 
Maryland Safe D no hogan lol
Massachusetts Uber Titanium D
Michigan Lean D Abdul is a great candidate I see him pulling this off
Minnesota Likely D Pawlenty couldn't even win the republican primary hes not gonna pull this off hes not popular in MN anymore
Nebraska Safe R lol
Nevada Lean D shouldn't be that much different than the actual race itself
NH Likely R Sunnus tough
NY Safe D
OH Lean R
OK Safe R lol
OR Tossup tilting D most likely
PA Safe D
RI Safe D
SC Likely R the R in this race was a complete nutbag
TN Safe R
TX Likely D
VT Safe D
WI Lean D
Wy Safe D

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

El-Sayed vs. Calley definitely would’ve been a closer race than Whitmer vs. Schuette was (both because Whitmer was a better candidate than El-Sayed and Calley was a better candidate than Schuette), but El-Sayed still would’ve won. The state rebounded to the left too severely and the Snyder administration was just too unpopular.

[lfromnj]

MA becomes Titanium D. The D candidate breaks 66%.

[Politician]

Close races: Oregon, Arizona, Texas, Iowa, Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, Connecticut