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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1800 on: January 13, 2022, 04:02:58 PM »

Quebec will introduce an "health contribution", which is pretty much a tax on unvaccinated people.

It's already having some positive impacts in increasing the uptake of vaccines, but I do think it's fair to ask "how much is too much" at this point. I think it's also important to point out that, if the justification for these measures is protecting healthcare capacity (which I think is a very good reason and why I go back and forth on this), the next step has to be to increase and improve healthcare capacity, because Canadian healthcare has shown its inadequacy in dealing with crises without governments resorting to lockdown measures at a point when most of our counterparts have moved past that.

The provinces bear a lot of blame on this front, and from an Ontario perspective, Ford hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgement. I'm leaning towards voting NDP this year, even though I don't like much of their platform. But at the federal level, I don't understand why there isn't more pressure on the Liberals to increase healthcare transfers. The standard response from LPC partisans is "lol do u really trust Ford and Kenney to follow through?" Maybe not, but that's an issue for provincial elections. Frankly, all the money this government has spent on piecemeal social programs could have been put to better use by actually creating the conditions for provincial governments to improve healthcare delivery.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1801 on: January 13, 2022, 04:10:43 PM »

Quebec will introduce an "health contribution", which is pretty much a tax on unvaccinated people.

It's already having some positive impacts in increasing the uptake of vaccines, but I do think it's fair to ask "how much is too much" at this point. I think it's also important to point out that, if the justification for these measures is protecting healthcare capacity (which I think is a very good reason and why I go back and forth on this), the next step has to be to increase and improve healthcare capacity, because Canadian healthcare has shown its inadequacy in dealing with crises without governments resorting to lockdown measures at a point when most of our counterparts have moved past that.

The provinces bear a lot of blame on this front, and from an Ontario perspective, Ford hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgement. I'm leaning towards voting NDP this year, even though I don't like much of their platform. But at the federal level, I don't understand why there isn't more pressure on the Liberals to increase healthcare transfers. The standard response from LPC partisans is "lol do u really trust Ford and Kenney to follow through?" Maybe not, but that's an issue for provincial elections. Frankly, all the money this government has spent on piecemeal social programs could have been put to better use by actually creating the conditions for provincial governments to improve healthcare delivery.

The main problem is that provinces will refuse any conditions on the money and half of them will probably use the transferts to cut taxes or fund stupid novelty projects.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1802 on: January 13, 2022, 04:23:06 PM »

Speaking of Quebec, new Mainstreet/L'actualité poll (article in French):

CAQ 38
PLQ 20
QS 19
PCQ 13
PQ 10

Few things of note here:
1. The CAQ isn't actually that wildly popular, or at least not anymore. They're roughly where they were in 2018 in terms of popular support. But they're helped by the fact that they don't have a strong opposition, and the opposition parties and bases are all way too opposed to each other for any kind of coalescing to happen.
2. We are witnessing the end of the PQ, if 2018 didn't make that clear enough. The goal of sovereignty that once propelled the likes of Lévesque and Parizeau to power is now a fringe position, CAQ makes a much more concrete appeal to regional Quebec populists, and Montreal's Franco socialists have a more effective ally in the QS. Le parti québécois est mort
3. CAQ is ahead everywhere, including the Montreal region. I still expect the PLQ to win the West Island and much of the immigrant areas because of their high floor there, while QS wins urban Francos and CAQ wins suburban Francos. But for a nationalist, small-c conservative party to be 10 points ahead of the Liberals in the Montreal region is itself pretty big news.
4. The Conservatives are gaining some traction from opposition to some of the current government's measures, but we will have to see if this is a BC Conservative situation. As in, there is a sizable minority who support the Conservatives, but does the party have the organizational strength to hold these voters, let alone win seats? I think 13% is probably not likely to hold all the way through the election (especially if the COVID wedge issue loses much of its salience), but it might not be a bad idea for the PCQ to focus in on the Capitale-Nationale, where they have 24% support, and see if they can take advantage of Quebec's political fractures into actually winning seats.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1803 on: January 13, 2022, 04:35:14 PM »

Quebec will introduce an "health contribution", which is pretty much a tax on unvaccinated people.

It's already having some positive impacts in increasing the uptake of vaccines, but I do think it's fair to ask "how much is too much" at this point. I think it's also important to point out that, if the justification for these measures is protecting healthcare capacity (which I think is a very good reason and why I go back and forth on this), the next step has to be to increase and improve healthcare capacity, because Canadian healthcare has shown its inadequacy in dealing with crises without governments resorting to lockdown measures at a point when most of our counterparts have moved past that.

The provinces bear a lot of blame on this front, and from an Ontario perspective, Ford hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgement. I'm leaning towards voting NDP this year, even though I don't like much of their platform. But at the federal level, I don't understand why there isn't more pressure on the Liberals to increase healthcare transfers. The standard response from LPC partisans is "lol do u really trust Ford and Kenney to follow through?" Maybe not, but that's an issue for provincial elections. Frankly, all the money this government has spent on piecemeal social programs could have been put to better use by actually creating the conditions for provincial governments to improve healthcare delivery.

The main problem is that provinces will refuse any conditions on the money and half of them will probably use the transferts to cut taxes or fund stupid novelty projects.

The CHT comes with certain conditions, no? Like, I'm pretty sure Health Transfers can't be used for non-healthcare purposes.

In any case, I don't think that's a good enough reason. Provincial governments have a popular mandate, and if the public disapproves of their decisions, we express that by voting. But in Canada's complex healthcare arrangement, I think the first step towards improving quality and availability is giving provinces the means to do so.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1804 on: January 14, 2022, 08:10:07 PM »

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/other/macdougall-o-e2-80-99toole-latest-rant-shows-he-e2-80-99s-caught-in-a-trap-of-his-party-e2-80-99s-making/ar-AASMdO8?ocid=BingNewsSearch

Very editorialized (it is an op-ed after all), this is by Andrew MacDougall, former Harper comms director. But overall, I think he makes good points about O'Toole.

If you haven't been following this closely, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced a plan to phase out fossil fuel subsidies within 18 months. O'Toole reacted in, as MacDougall calls it, a rant, where he alleged that the Liberals were going to phase out fossil fuels in 18 months.

sigh

Does anyone believe that? Genuinely, can anyone, even the most pro-oil conservative in Alberta, actually believe that a government could ban oil by the end of 2023? It doesn't even make sense to exaggerate this. If O'Toole is committed to continuing FF subsidies, he could easily make the argument that this would displace workers without giving them an alternative. This would be a position that satisfies the base without seeming like a crazed wingnut. Just a weird, weird comms decision, and a continuation of rudderless leadership.

This seems to be O'Toole's biggest problem, half the time it seems like he doesn't even believe the things he says. In this case, he knew he was lying, and a CPC insider is calling him out on it.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1805 on: January 15, 2022, 08:04:12 AM »

Former NDP leader Alexa McDonough has died.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1806 on: January 18, 2022, 03:22:46 PM »

Seems the Pq will need a new leader after the elction, as the PQ leader announced he will run in Bourget, a CAQ held seat in Montréal.
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #1807 on: January 20, 2022, 08:45:38 AM »
« Edited: January 20, 2022, 08:49:35 AM by StateBoiler »

This government readout of a ministers' meeting on Russia-Ukraine yesterday set Paul Wells off. Cheesy

https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/this-just-in-the-pm-has-been-phoning-cabinet-ministers/

Quote
Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mélanie Joly, Minister of National Defence Anita Anand, Minister of International Development Harjit S. Sajjan, President of the Queen’s Privy Council for Canada and Minister of Emergency Preparedness Bill Blair, and Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Sean Fraser to discuss security concerns in Ukraine. They were joined by Chief of the Defence Staff General Wayne Eyre, Interim Clerk of the Privy Council Janice Charette, and other senior officials.

During the call, the Prime Minister and ministers discussed the latest developments in Ukraine. They condemned Russia’s military buildup in and around the country as well as Russia’s annexation and illegal occupation of Crimea. They underlined the need for Russia to de-escalate the situation and uphold its international commitments, and emphasized Canada’s commitment to continued coordination and engagement between allies and partners.

Minister Joly, who is currently in Ukraine, provided an update on her work with her Ukrainian counterparts in support of the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russian aggression. She met yesterday in Kyiv with Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Denys Shmyhal, and Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration, Olga Stefanishyna, and met today with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Minister Anand highlighted the role of the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) for military training and capacity building in Ukraine through Operation UNIFIER, which has trained more than 12,500 members of Ukraine’s Security Forces since the mission began in 2015. Approximately 200 CAF personnel are currently deployed to Ukraine under Operation UNIFIER. The minister noted she recently spoke with her Ukrainian counterpart.

Together, the Prime Minister and ministers raised the need to find a peaceful solution through dialogue. They reaffirmed Canada’s steadfast support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and considered current and future assistance to Ukraine. Prime Minister Trudeau emphasized that any further military incursion into Ukraine would have serious consequences, including coordinated sanctions.

The Prime Minister and ministers agreed to continue closely monitoring the situation over the coming days and weeks.

He made an article that I linked above but this was his initial reaction afterward:

Quote
Honestly, this is one of the strangest things I've seen in 28 years in Ottawa. It's a bland, fictionalized description of the PM and some cabinet ministers chatting among themselves about a terrifying diplomatic crisis that could yet turn into a shooting war in Europe. Great that they had this chat. Does any of them have anything they now want to say directly to Canadians? Or to any of our allies? Or to the potential adversary? Does any of them imagine that this bit of transcribed theatre  is at all close to being the best way to get out whatever message they might hypothetically have in mind?

I wonder whether they think Canada has some other, real government somewhere that's doing actual things while they have undergraduates write out the scripts of their imaginary conversations. I'm not sure how to break the news to them that no, they're supposed to be the actual government.
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Nasty but Frank
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« Reply #1808 on: January 21, 2022, 06:37:04 AM »
« Edited: January 21, 2022, 07:27:31 AM by Nasty but Frank »

This is truly embarrassing for the polling industry.

NDP between 22-36%
Liberals between 19-36%

Only P.Cs relatively consistent between 31-37%

Edit to add: if the Angus Reid survey is removed as a rogue poll, the NDP are fairly consistent in these polls at between 22-27%.

The P.C's are still between 31-37%

But, the Liberals are still fairly over the map at between 26-36%
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Estrella
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« Reply #1809 on: January 22, 2022, 11:01:17 PM »

I have no idea why I spent an hour reading and then writing a post about a dispute that doesn't affect me at all, but I'm just fascinated by obscure bureaucratic clusterfxcks, so here it goes. It's a relatively minor issue, but I think it's still interesting precisely because of how a minor issue like this became a years-long darkly hilarious saga that should be turned into an episode of Yes, Minister.

So, back in 2015, Trudeau promised that the 1992 ban de facto prohibiting gay and bisexual men from donating blood would be lifted. This shouldn't have been anything too complicated - research has proven that the HIV and STD tests that all donated blood undergoes are close to 100% accurate, and many other countries have already lifted similar restrictions or are doing so now - most recently France just last week. Moreover, like most countries, Canada has a semi-permanent shortage of blood for transfusions and anything extra would help.

It wasn't getting anywhere though, and in 2016 an Ontario man sued Health Canada, alleging the ban is discriminatory. The federal government tried to stop the lawsuit, claiming they had no authority to force Canadian Blood Services to rescind the ban and they didn't order them to put it in place anyway. CBS is the organization responsible for collecting blood donations (but not in Quebec, where this is done by Héma-Québec, a separate organization, because reasons *eyeroll*). The Trudeau government then proceeded to find a solution that would convince the CBS to end the ban and fulfill their promise of course not, they asked the Federal Court to review the decision and stop the human rights complaint.

Only two years later, the Court reached a decision. We're now two lawsuits deep, so it didn't actually abolish the ban, it just told the government they were wrong and they did have the authority to tell CBS to get rid of it. But hey, CBS actually did something! They reduced the waiting period for gay men to give blood to one year and then to three months since the last time they had sex. That is still six times longer than the theoretical maximum period that HIV could go undetected, but they promised that maybe they would make the waiting period shorter still at some point in the future, even though they already had all the information and other countries didn't have any issues.

During last year's election, Trudeau was repeatedly lambasted by NDP and Greens for inaction on the issue. A Liberal MP even stated she "won't even begin to defend" her government's record regarding the ban. Lest you think the promise to end the ban was simply social justice gone mad...

Last autumn, CBS finally promised to do something:
Quote
Canadian Blood Services is preparing to ask Health Canada to allow it to scrap questions about gender or sexuality, basing screening on higher-risk sexual behaviour instead. Potential donors could be asked if they have had multiple sexual partners, and about their sexual behaviour instead of their sexuality and gender.

They even backed up the promises with actions... sort of. Some gay men may now donate, but only plasma and not blood, and only in Calgary and London. Why? Don't ask me.

After six years of unfulfilled promises, lawsuits, lawsuits to stop lawsuits, passing the hot potato from one government agency to the other, vehemently agreeing that something needs to be done and then doing nothing, it seems the issue might be getting somewhere. Maybe. Only if Hacker finds something to blackmail Humphrey with.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #1810 on: January 23, 2022, 05:48:28 AM »

This is truly embarrassing for the polling industry.

NDP between 22-36%
Liberals between 19-36%

Only P.Cs relatively consistent between 31-37%

Edit to add: if the Angus Reid survey is removed as a rogue poll, the NDP are fairly consistent in these polls at between 22-27%.

The P.C's are still between 31-37%

But, the Liberals are still fairly over the map at between 26-36%

This is not embarrassing, it is infact good that the pollsters are not herding.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1811 on: January 24, 2022, 09:53:35 PM »

This is truly embarrassing for the polling industry.

NDP between 22-36%
Liberals between 19-36%

Only P.Cs relatively consistent between 31-37%

Edit to add: if the Angus Reid survey is removed as a rogue poll, the NDP are fairly consistent in these polls at between 22-27%.

The P.C's are still between 31-37%

But, the Liberals are still fairly over the map at between 26-36%

This is not embarrassing, it is infact good that the pollsters are not herding.


Yeah, it probably just indicates that most Ontarians haven't tuned into provincial politics very closely. As campaigning rolls around we might see a more "real" trend
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1812 on: January 24, 2022, 10:02:27 PM »

My god, O'Toole is scrambling. I really did like him and defended him for some time after the election (in fact, while I voted Liberal, my views have been shifting to the right and I would have been comfortable voting Conservative, only made up my mind last-minute). But his inability to stake out a clear position on anything is really starting to sour me on the guy, and a lot of other Canadians if leadership approval polls are any indicator. The CPC could go into yet another leadership race, god help us
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EternalCynic
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« Reply #1813 on: January 24, 2022, 10:34:42 PM »

My god, O'Toole is scrambling. I really did like him and defended him for some time after the election (in fact, while I voted Liberal, my views have been shifting to the right and I would have been comfortable voting Conservative, only made up my mind last-minute). But his inability to stake out a clear position on anything is really starting to sour me on the guy, and a lot of other Canadians if leadership approval polls are any indicator. The CPC could go into yet another leadership race, god help us



His predecessor is delusional enough to think he can get his old job back.
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