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beesley
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« Reply #1775 on: December 28, 2021, 06:13:41 PM »

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

I think this could be worse for provincial governments.  Omicron is likely not the last variant we get and this will put provincial governments in a horrible bind.  Bring in another lockdown which people are tired of and won't go over well with majority who are vaccinated.  Or stay open and risk ICUs collapsing.  Fact Trudeau has no say over most public health restrictions probably helps as I think if he did he would be in a horrible pickle.  Much of the Liberal base are upper middle class professionals not heavily impacted by lockdowns so all for it as they are about following science.  But big part of Trudeau coalition in 2015 was millennials and they are most likely to be fatigued by restrictions.

Unless we get actual "vaccine escaping" variants (possible, but unlikely) it should be possible to avoid lockdowns without health services collapsing in well vaccinated countries (which Canada is) The truth is that lockdown was the appropriate response during the original pre-vaccine virus waves, but that is not the case now and governments should stop treating them as almost a routine event.

That may be true, but lots of health experts calling for lockdowns.  Canadians tend to be very risk averse so even if no need for them, many will ask for one out of fear.  Off course varies by province and territory.  Nunavut is already in lockdown but so far no one else.

Alberta I doubt does as Kenney faces a leadership review in April 2022 and any lockdown is almost certain to result in him being dumped on top of poor polling numbers.

Ontario unlikely either since despite being extra cautious, Ford faces an election this coming June.  Left is split while right is largely united, but another lockdown could give further right wing parties 5-10% of popular vote and they get similar #'s to PPC federally in Ontario he is finished.  Federally CPC + PPC was 40.4% in Ontario, exact percentage Ford got in 2018 thus any split on right no matter how small is fatal.

Saskatchewan likely won't due to ideological bent of government

BC unlikely either as Dr. Bonnie Henry makes decisions and she has generally taken a softer approach than most.

Now Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Manitoba I could see going into lockdown.  Quebec already very close while Atlantic Canada has largely avoided COVID-19 to date so easy for people to freak out at current numbers despite high vaccine rates.

What are the hospitalisation/death figures at the moment? Are people calling for lockdown because they are high, or just to spread the high case load a bit so not everyone is in isolation? If not those two, then it's strange so many people would be willing to call for s lockdown. I see Ontario has already decided to bar care home visitors today.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1776 on: December 28, 2021, 09:30:00 PM »

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

I think this could be worse for provincial governments.  Omicron is likely not the last variant we get and this will put provincial governments in a horrible bind.  Bring in another lockdown which people are tired of and won't go over well with majority who are vaccinated.  Or stay open and risk ICUs collapsing.  Fact Trudeau has no say over most public health restrictions probably helps as I think if he did he would be in a horrible pickle.  Much of the Liberal base are upper middle class professionals not heavily impacted by lockdowns so all for it as they are about following science.  But big part of Trudeau coalition in 2015 was millennials and they are most likely to be fatigued by restrictions.

Unless we get actual "vaccine escaping" variants (possible, but unlikely) it should be possible to avoid lockdowns without health services collapsing in well vaccinated countries (which Canada is) The truth is that lockdown was the appropriate response during the original pre-vaccine virus waves, but that is not the case now and governments should stop treating them as almost a routine event.

That may be true, but lots of health experts calling for lockdowns.  Canadians tend to be very risk averse so even if no need for them, many will ask for one out of fear.  Off course varies by province and territory.  Nunavut is already in lockdown but so far no one else.

Alberta I doubt does as Kenney faces a leadership review in April 2022 and any lockdown is almost certain to result in him being dumped on top of poor polling numbers.

Ontario unlikely either since despite being extra cautious, Ford faces an election this coming June.  Left is split while right is largely united, but another lockdown could give further right wing parties 5-10% of popular vote and they get similar #'s to PPC federally in Ontario he is finished.  Federally CPC + PPC was 40.4% in Ontario, exact percentage Ford got in 2018 thus any split on right no matter how small is fatal.

Saskatchewan likely won't due to ideological bent of government

BC unlikely either as Dr. Bonnie Henry makes decisions and she has generally taken a softer approach than most.

Now Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Manitoba I could see going into lockdown.  Quebec already very close while Atlantic Canada has largely avoided COVID-19 to date so easy for people to freak out at current numbers despite high vaccine rates.

What are the hospitalisation/death figures at the moment? Are people calling for lockdown because they are high, or just to spread the high case load a bit so not everyone is in isolation? If not those two, then it's strange so many people would be willing to call for s lockdown. I see Ontario has already decided to bar care home visitors today.

High cases, hospitalizations are not that high at all.  Reason is many say hospitalizations lag cases so when cases rise argument is you need to lockdown to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.  Problem is many pushing lockdowns are going on same formula used pre-vaccine and when you have 85% of population vaccinated, you aren't going to get same level of hospitalization as you will with lower rates of vaccination.

A lot is cultural as Canadians are very risk averse.  In US few doctors are calling for lockdowns, but then in US the backlash against one and damage it would do to credibility of public health officials is big reason why not.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1777 on: December 29, 2021, 05:29:02 PM »

Canadian citizen Denise Ho was arrested in Hong Kong on "seditious publication" charges. She is a pop star turned pro-democracy activist, who also served on the board of The Stand News, one of Hong Kong's few non-CCP influenced news outlets.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/29/denise-ho-the-cantopop-star-and-pro-democracy-activist-arrested-in-hong-kong
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Poirot
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« Reply #1778 on: January 01, 2022, 10:10:32 PM »

In Quebec hospitalizations are nearing capacity for covid patients and the number of cases are at an all time high (and the number of declared cases may not be the reality since testing is running at full capacity and they suggest if you test positive with a rapid test at home don't go at testing center). I guess if it gets worse they will postpone other hospital activities. The ICU patients and deaths are rising but not huge spike yet.

10 pm curfew was annouced December 30 taking effect December 31 so no New Years activities. Unless you live alone you can't join another house bubble. Dining inside restaurants is closed.

Wihtout covid the health system is already strectched and there is personnel shortage.

I don't know if the last weeks will have an effect on the popularity of the government. At the beginning of the month the premier says maybe the size of gatherings could be 25 for the holidays. The announbcement is 20, then 10, and stay with your house your bubble. Very slow to poceed with a third dose of vaccines (seems there is not enough medical staff) and now they are in a hurry. Rapid home tests for the population distributed in pharmacies the week of Christmas creating a stampede to find a kit, in limited numbers so maybe it's possible to get one in January. Hours of wait outside testing centers to get tested. Some could say they waited too long to take severe measures as cases were rising. Some could be unhappy of lockdown. Or so far people have not been angry at the government, the pandemic is difficult, uncharted territory, they are doing the best they can.
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« Reply #1779 on: January 02, 2022, 01:51:45 PM »

Legault could stand in the middle of Rue-Sainte-Catherine and shoot somebody, and he wouldn't lose any votes Tongue

Maybe it's not quite that strong, but it seems like CAQ has a very strong hold on Quebec at the moment, with no opposition party with a serious chance of challenging him. PLQ and PQ are a mess, and QS is too far to the left to really appeal to the mainstream, not least against a popular centre-right government.

The province where Omicron might actually swing an election is Ontario. I fully expect the PCs to win the most seats, but a majority isn't guaranteed, and OLP/NDP voters really hate Ford - if there's a centre-left majority and either party props up Ford instead of entering a coalition/confidence agreement, they will have hell to pay.

So far in Ontario, while Omicron infections are sky-high, it hasn't been very severe in terms of hospitalizations or deaths. Life seems to be relatively normal, other than capacity limits (which we're all used to by now). The opposition is talking a lot about the shortage of PCR tests and long waits for vaccines, but anecdotally, I don't think people are that angry about it. We're all just kinda resigned to the status quo, which works out quite well for the PCs.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1780 on: January 02, 2022, 01:58:23 PM »

I think the real thing to watch for in Quebec is who implodes. Legault and the CAQ precipitated a realignment in 2018, at both the PLQ's and PQ's expense. I think the Liberals will survive, simply because of their ever-loyal base in Montreal who are still unlikely to go CAQ. But the PQ seems increasingly shut out of Quebec, in an environment where hard separatism is a dead issue, CAQ has taken the mantle of soft nationalism (and many former Pequiste voters, organizers, even politicians), and the new generation of left-wing activists are a lot more partial to QS than PQ, so that leaves the PQ stranded.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1781 on: January 04, 2022, 08:58:01 AM »


That may be true, but lots of health experts calling for lockdowns.  Canadians tend to be very risk averse so even if no need for them, many will ask for one out of fear.  Off course varies by province and territory.  Nunavut is already in lockdown but so far no one else.

Ontario unlikely either since despite being extra cautious, Ford faces an election this coming June.  Left is split while right is largely united, but another lockdown could give further right wing parties 5-10% of popular vote and they get similar #'s to PPC federally in Ontario he is finished.  Federally CPC + PPC was 40.4% in Ontario, exact percentage Ford got in 2018 thus any split on right no matter how small is fatal.

Snip

Now Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Manitoba I could see going into lockdown.  Quebec already very close while Atlantic Canada has largely avoided COVID-19 to date so easy for people to freak out at current numbers despite high vaccine rates.

Ontario is locking down, closing indoor dining  gyms, going to remote learning etc, while Nova Scotia's head of Public Health said he cant justify a lockdown at current caseloads. I agreed with these sentiments when you posted them, so this swap took me completely by surprise.

There seems to be a pretty strong age gap developing to the new approach in Nova Scotia. Most younger people were grumbling about the prospect of another lockdown and were pleased to see the changed course. Meanwhile, I noticed on Facebook posts of COVID news articles, a lot of posters with gray hair were complaining that schools are still having in-person classes.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1782 on: January 05, 2022, 11:32:16 AM »

As expected, Iain Rankin has stepped down as leader of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party after his snap election call backfired.
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beesley
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« Reply #1783 on: January 05, 2022, 12:19:42 PM »

Makes sense - he had a leadership review coming up.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #1784 on: January 05, 2022, 06:38:49 PM »

Legault is pretty much a straight up authoritarian at this point who seems to be obsessed with dictating the personal business of his citizens, first firing that lady for wearing a hijab and then all these draconian restrictions. How do people of Quebec put up with this guy? I'd even take a separatist PQ government winning if that's what it takes to get this guy out of power.

Disappointed in Ford for bring in new restrictions when at this stage they are gonna do nothing. I think this is going to cost him votes. There are many moderate voters who would have voted PC just to make sure businesses are kept open and restrictions are kept to a minimum but if he is going to bring in these restrictions, then not much incentive for those voters to vote for him.
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beesley
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« Reply #1785 on: January 06, 2022, 11:00:08 AM »


Disappointed in Ford for bring in new restrictions when at this stage they are gonna do nothing. I think this is going to cost him votes. There are many moderate voters who would have voted PC just to make sure businesses are kept open and restrictions are kept to a minimum but if he is going to bring in these restrictions, then not much incentive for those voters to vote for him.

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #1786 on: January 06, 2022, 08:48:09 PM »

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.
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beesley
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« Reply #1787 on: January 07, 2022, 02:51:33 AM »

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

That's a fair point actually, I didn't think of that. Of course if they just choose not to turn out it's one less vote for Ford
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1788 on: January 07, 2022, 12:21:26 PM »

Ontario has a long history of being fairly nanny statist in its mentality so its not really out of character.  Yes may seem so for a Tory government, but Ford seems to want to be liked more than sticking to principles so no surprise.  If PCs had a different leader, they would have ignored this.

After all Ontario, Ontario still banned Sunday shopping and I believe even Sunday liquor sales at restaurants until early 90s.  And for liquor rules, Ontario seems quite archaic for anyone from Europe save maybe the Nordic Countries.  Likewise until recently speed limits were only 100 km/h on 400 highway series when in most European countries, they would be 120 or 130 for similar designed highways.  So it does sort of fit within the party.  Western Canada I find is much less risk averse than Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.  What is interesting is no province in Atlantic Canada has gone into lockdown as unlike Ontario, they haven't had a really bad COVID wave until now and are smashing records with more than half their cases in last month since beginning of pandemic yet none of them have gone into full lockdown.  All have restrictions, but they are comparable to BC or most European countries save England and Netherlands (former looser than anything in Canada, latter comparable to Quebec minus the curfew).
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #1789 on: January 08, 2022, 12:14:40 PM »

You guys see the s*** about the party plane?
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #1790 on: January 08, 2022, 04:09:40 PM »

Legault is pretty much a straight up authoritarian at this point who seems to be obsessed with dictating the personal business of his citizens, first firing that lady for wearing a hijab and then all these draconian restrictions. How do people of Quebec put up with this guy? I'd even take a separatist PQ government winning if that's what it takes to get this guy out of power.

Disappointed in Ford for bring in new restrictions when at this stage they are gonna do nothing. I think this is going to cost him votes. There are many moderate voters who would have voted PC just to make sure businesses are kept open and restrictions are kept to a minimum but if he is going to bring in these restrictions, then not much incentive for those voters to vote for him.

Legault is very in-tune with the views of the majority of Quebecers, as horrifying as that thought is to the Quebecers who oppose him, and many of us outside the province.
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #1791 on: January 08, 2022, 04:18:10 PM »

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

The problem is, the OLP is in a bad place. They constantly lag behind in fundraising, they haven't attracted much top talent (and lost one in Michael Couteau, who traded being the most prominent Liberal in the ON legislature for a position as a Trudeau backbencher), and the leader offers nothing in particular. Nor is the NDP ascendant, Horwath continues to be a pretty unremarkable leader, and unless Ford reeeeeally screws up, I can't see the NDP making gains.

The best hope for the anti-Ford wing of Ontario politics is that the NDP holds onto about 30% of the vote and most of their current seats, the Liberal recover to about 25% and pick up traditionally Liberal seats in Toronto and parts of the 905, and Ford alienates just enough of his base to see turnout drop - culminating in a minority situation where the centre-left can gang up on the PCs.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1792 on: January 09, 2022, 03:02:00 PM »

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

The problem is, the OLP is in a bad place. They constantly lag behind in fundraising, they haven't attracted much top talent (and lost one in Michael Couteau, who traded being the most prominent Liberal in the ON legislature for a position as a Trudeau backbencher), and the leader offers nothing in particular. Nor is the NDP ascendant, Horwath continues to be a pretty unremarkable leader, and unless Ford reeeeeally screws up, I can't see the NDP making gains.

The best hope for the anti-Ford wing of Ontario politics is that the NDP holds onto about 30% of the vote and most of their current seats, the Liberal recover to about 25% and pick up traditionally Liberal seats in Toronto and parts of the 905, and Ford alienates just enough of his base to see turnout drop - culminating in a minority situation where the centre-left can gang up on the PCs.

Not if you consider bankers to be top talent.  The Ontario Liberals have so far nominated about 10 former bankers as candidates. I'm not sure what's behind that.

1.Kanata-Carleton, Shahbaz Syed, Export Development Canada Financing Manager/Former Bank Risk Manager

2.Oakville-North Burlington Kaniz Mouli, RBC Senior Manager - Change and Engagement

3.Kitchener-Conestoga, Melanie Van Alphen, Former Scotia Bank Manager of Customer Service and Senior Personal Banking Officer

4.Oshawa, Catherine Moses, Bank Vice President of Compliance

5.Brampton South, Marilyn Raphael, T.D Asset Management Vice President Business and Product Governance

6.Richmond Hill, Roozbah Farhadi, Scotia Bank Small Business Development Manager

7.Don Valley West, Stephanie Bowman, Former Scotia Bank Senior Vice President, Former Bank of Canada Finance Committee Member

8.University-Rosedale, Andrea Barrack, T.D Bank Global Head Sustainability and Corporate Citizen

also
1.Kingston and the Islands, Ted Hsu, the former Liberal M.P for the riding from 2011-2015 (and the only PhD physicist in Parliament at the time) was previously the Morgan Stanley Tokyo Office Executive Director

2.Mississauga-East Cooksville, Dipika Demela the MPP up to the 2018 election who is running again was an RBC Corporate Banker
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1793 on: January 09, 2022, 03:23:54 PM »

Ontario has a long history of being fairly nanny statist in its mentality so its not really out of character.  Yes may seem so for a Tory government, but Ford seems to want to be liked more than sticking to principles so no surprise.  If PCs had a different leader, they would have ignored this.

After all Ontario, Ontario still banned Sunday shopping and I believe even Sunday liquor sales at restaurants until early 90s.  And for liquor rules, Ontario seems quite archaic for anyone from Europe save maybe the Nordic Countries.  Likewise until recently speed limits were only 100 km/h on 400 highway series when in most European countries, they would be 120 or 130 for similar designed highways.  So it does sort of fit within the party.  Western Canada I find is much less risk averse than Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada.  What is interesting is no province in Atlantic Canada has gone into lockdown as unlike Ontario, they haven't had a really bad COVID wave until now and are smashing records with more than half their cases in last month since beginning of pandemic yet none of them have gone into full lockdown.  All have restrictions, but they are comparable to BC or most European countries save England and Netherlands (former looser than anything in Canada, latter comparable to Quebec minus the curfew).

It was the Bob Rae NDP government that lifted the ban on Sunday shopping in Ontario.  It was an interesting exercise for me because this was the first time I realized that interest groups act differently when a party they support is in power to one they oppose, and that interest groups will even outright lie.

The initial impulse of the NDP on Sunday shopping was to conduct a survey because they were afraid of backlash from the people who would have to work on Sunday who might not want to.  Sunday shopping had been illegal in Ontario since I don't know when, but the reaction to this from the business community, especially the retail businesses, was as if the NDP was suddenly the government considering implementing the ban on Sunday shopping, not the government that was considering lifting the ban.

For years and years, because the retail businesses supported both the P.C and Liberal governments, they said nothing about Sunday shopping. As soon as the NDP became the government, they started saying "the government, this NDP government, is hurting the economy and hurting you the consumer with their Sunday shopping ban."
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beesley
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« Reply #1794 on: January 09, 2022, 04:01:42 PM »

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

The problem is, the OLP is in a bad place. They constantly lag behind in fundraising, they haven't attracted much top talent (and lost one in Michael Couteau, who traded being the most prominent Liberal in the ON legislature for a position as a Trudeau backbencher), and the leader offers nothing in particular. Nor is the NDP ascendant, Horwath continues to be a pretty unremarkable leader, and unless Ford reeeeeally screws up, I can't see the NDP making gains.

The best hope for the anti-Ford wing of Ontario politics is that the NDP holds onto about 30% of the vote and most of their current seats, the Liberal recover to about 25% and pick up traditionally Liberal seats in Toronto and parts of the 905, and Ford alienates just enough of his base to see turnout drop - culminating in a minority situation where the centre-left can gang up on the PCs.

Not if you consider bankers to be top talent.  The Ontario Liberals have so far nominated about 10 former bankers as candidates. I'm not sure what's behind that.

1.Kanata-Carleton, Shahbaz Syed, Export Development Canada Financing Manager/Former Bank Risk Manager

2.Oakville-North Burlington Kaniz Mouli, RBC Senior Manager - Change and Engagement

3.Kitchener-Conestoga, Melanie Van Alphen, Former Scotia Bank Manager of Customer Service and Senior Personal Banking Officer

4.Oshawa, Catherine Moses, Bank Vice President of Compliance

5.Brampton South, Marilyn Raphael, T.D Asset Management Vice President Business and Product Governance

6.Richmond Hill, Roozbah Farhadi, Scotia Bank Small Business Development Manager

7.Don Valley West, Stephanie Bowman, Former Scotia Bank Senior Vice President, Former Bank of Canada Finance Committee Member

8.University-Rosedale, Andrea Barrack, T.D Bank Global Head Sustainability and Corporate Citizen

also
1.Kingston and the Islands, Ted Hsu, the former Liberal M.P for the riding from 2011-2015 (and the only PhD physicist in Parliament at the time) was previously the Morgan Stanley Tokyo Office Executive Director

2.Mississauga-East Cooksville, Dipika Demela the MPP up to the 2018 election who is running again was an RBC Corporate Banker

Apart from Catherine Mosca in Oshawa, all of those have a good chance of being elected too.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1795 on: January 09, 2022, 04:08:54 PM »

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

The problem is, the OLP is in a bad place. They constantly lag behind in fundraising, they haven't attracted much top talent (and lost one in Michael Couteau, who traded being the most prominent Liberal in the ON legislature for a position as a Trudeau backbencher), and the leader offers nothing in particular. Nor is the NDP ascendant, Horwath continues to be a pretty unremarkable leader, and unless Ford reeeeeally screws up, I can't see the NDP making gains.

The best hope for the anti-Ford wing of Ontario politics is that the NDP holds onto about 30% of the vote and most of their current seats, the Liberal recover to about 25% and pick up traditionally Liberal seats in Toronto and parts of the 905, and Ford alienates just enough of his base to see turnout drop - culminating in a minority situation where the centre-left can gang up on the PCs.

Not if you consider bankers to be top talent.  The Ontario Liberals have so far nominated about 10 former bankers as candidates. I'm not sure what's behind that.

1.Kanata-Carleton, Shahbaz Syed, Export Development Canada Financing Manager/Former Bank Risk Manager

2.Oakville-North Burlington Kaniz Mouli, RBC Senior Manager - Change and Engagement

3.Kitchener-Conestoga, Melanie Van Alphen, Former Scotia Bank Manager of Customer Service and Senior Personal Banking Officer

4.Oshawa, Catherine Moses, Bank Vice President of Compliance

5.Brampton South, Marilyn Raphael, T.D Asset Management Vice President Business and Product Governance

6.Richmond Hill, Roozbah Farhadi, Scotia Bank Small Business Development Manager

7.Don Valley West, Stephanie Bowman, Former Scotia Bank Senior Vice President, Former Bank of Canada Finance Committee Member

8.University-Rosedale, Andrea Barrack, T.D Bank Global Head Sustainability and Corporate Citizen

also
1.Kingston and the Islands, Ted Hsu, the former Liberal M.P for the riding from 2011-2015 (and the only PhD physicist in Parliament at the time) was previously the Morgan Stanley Tokyo Office Executive Director

2.Mississauga-East Cooksville, Dipika Demela the MPP up to the 2018 election who is running again was an RBC Corporate Banker

Apart from Catherine Mosca in Oshawa, all of those have a good chance of being elected too.

Ted Hsu is a very good get for the Liberals. I don't know if he's the reason the NDP incumbent Ian Arthur chose not to run again, but I think he was very highly regarded in the riding when he decided to not run for reelection federally.  I spoke to a handful of scientists about him after one lecture, and they thought of him highly as well.  Of course, the Federal Liberals were in opposition then.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #1796 on: January 10, 2022, 07:07:13 PM »

Manitoba's Minister of Economic Development and Jobs, Jon Reyes, is under fire on Twitter for not helping his wife shovel snow after she worked a twelve hour hospital shift.

Quote
A Canadian politician faced a backlash after he posted a picture on social media of his wife shoveling snow after she had worked a 12-hour hospital shift.

Jon Reyes, a Manitoba Cabinet minister, faced the wrath of Twitter followers for standing inside in the warmth and taking the photo while his wife, Cynthia Reyes, shoveled snow in below-freezing temperatures.

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MaxQue
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« Reply #1797 on: January 11, 2022, 03:51:56 PM »

Quebec will introduce an "health contribution", which is pretty much a tax on unvaccinated people.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #1798 on: January 13, 2022, 04:02:58 PM »

Quebec will introduce an "health contribution", which is pretty much a tax on unvaccinated people.

It's already having some positive impacts in increasing the uptake of vaccines, but I do think it's fair to ask "how much is too much" at this point. I think it's also important to point out that, if the justification for these measures is protecting healthcare capacity (which I think is a very good reason and why I go back and forth on this), the next step has to be to increase and improve healthcare capacity, because Canadian healthcare has shown its inadequacy in dealing with crises without governments resorting to lockdown measures at a point when most of our counterparts have moved past that.

The provinces bear a lot of blame on this front, and from an Ontario perspective, Ford hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgement. I'm leaning towards voting NDP this year, even though I don't like much of their platform. But at the federal level, I don't understand why there isn't more pressure on the Liberals to increase healthcare transfers. The standard response from LPC partisans is "lol do u really trust Ford and Kenney to follow through?" Maybe not, but that's an issue for provincial elections. Frankly, all the money this government has spent on piecemeal social programs could have been put to better use by actually creating the conditions for provincial governments to improve healthcare delivery.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1799 on: January 13, 2022, 04:10:43 PM »

Quebec will introduce an "health contribution", which is pretty much a tax on unvaccinated people.

It's already having some positive impacts in increasing the uptake of vaccines, but I do think it's fair to ask "how much is too much" at this point. I think it's also important to point out that, if the justification for these measures is protecting healthcare capacity (which I think is a very good reason and why I go back and forth on this), the next step has to be to increase and improve healthcare capacity, because Canadian healthcare has shown its inadequacy in dealing with crises without governments resorting to lockdown measures at a point when most of our counterparts have moved past that.

The provinces bear a lot of blame on this front, and from an Ontario perspective, Ford hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgement. I'm leaning towards voting NDP this year, even though I don't like much of their platform. But at the federal level, I don't understand why there isn't more pressure on the Liberals to increase healthcare transfers. The standard response from LPC partisans is "lol do u really trust Ford and Kenney to follow through?" Maybe not, but that's an issue for provincial elections. Frankly, all the money this government has spent on piecemeal social programs could have been put to better use by actually creating the conditions for provincial governments to improve healthcare delivery.

The main problem is that provinces will refuse any conditions on the money and half of them will probably use the transferts to cut taxes or fund stupid novelty projects.
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