Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Benjamin Frank]

For some reason, CBC deleted this post of mine on their story on the potential cabinet.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-2021-election-cabinet-1.6194431?__vfz=medium%3Dtray_notification#vf-1710300020567

I'm not really sure what rule this post violated, especially when you can peruse the inane and factually incorrect comments that they don't delete.  I guess all they really want their comment section for is to be a place for people to vent.

My cabinet prediction:

1.Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau
2.Finance/Deputy Prime Minister, Chyrstia Freeland
3.Treasury Board President, Jean Yves Duclos
4.Industry, Francois Phillippe Champaigne
5.International Trade, Mary Ng
6.Economic Development, Tourism and Small Business, Randy Boissonnault
7.Employment, Workforce Development and Disability Inclusion, Carla Qualtrough
8.Labour, Filomena Tassi
9.Revenue, Diane Lebouthilier
10.Natural Resouces, Seamus O'Regan
11.Agriculture, Marie Claude Bibeau
12.Fisheries, Oceans and Coast Guard, Lena Diab
13.Environment, Jonathan Wilkinson
14.Transport, Omar Alghabra
15.Infrastructure and Communities, Steven Guilbeault
16.Public Services and Procurement, Mona Fortier
17.Social Development, Ahmed Hussen
18.Health, Patty Hajdu
19.Indigenous Services, Marc Miller
20.Crown-Indigenous Relations, Dan Vandal
21.Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, Marco Mendicino
22.Intergovernmental Affairs, Dominic Leblanc
23.Heritage, Pablo Rodriguez
24.Veterans Affairs, Lawrence MacAulay
25.Defense, Anita Anand
26.International Development, Karina Gould
27.Foreign Affairs, Marc Garneau
28.Public Safety, Bill Blair
29.Justice and Attorney General, David Lametti
30.Government House Leader, Melanie Joly

Junior Cabinet
1.Seniors, Helena Jaczek
2.Women and Gender Equality, Arielle Kayabaga
3.Digital Government, Joyce Murray
4.North, Yvonne Jones
5.Rural Economic Development, Pascale St. Onge
6.Diversity, Inclusion and Youth, Bardish Chagger
7.Prairies, Jim Carr

[Benjamin Frank]

I could see Sophie Chatel, the newly elected Liberal in Pontiac, get Rural Economic Development rather than Pascal St. Onge.  Sophie Chatel is a tax lawyer who was the Head of the OECD tax treaty unit. She must have been at least partly responsible for the agreement on the minimum corporate tax, but obviously left before the treaty was completed.

Ideally, she'd probably make a very good Revenue Minister, but if she were posted there, then there would probably be expectations that the Liberals would address the Panama Papers, the Paradise Papers and the Paradox Papers, and I think that's very unlikely.  

It will be interesting to see who the N.D.P appoints as their Revenue Critic and how much they go after the Liberals on this.

I don't believe that the Outaouais region in Quebec is represented in cabinet.  Pascale St. Onge in Brome-Missisquoi is in the L'Estrie (Eastern Townships) which already has a minister with Agriculture Minister Marie Claude Bibeau.

On the other hand though, Pascale St. Onge, as a former Union President for Communications workers and Journalists and as a former musician herself (I believe she was an opera singer) was something of a celebrity/star candidate which the Liberals might want to continue to encourage in running for them by appointing to cabinet.

Sophie Chatel was something of a star candidate herself as the former head of the OECD tax treaty unit but obviously was much lower profile.

[Geoffrey Howe]

Admittedly somewhat low-brow, but Trudeau's strange acronym has been making the news here. 2SLGBTQQIA+ I believe it was - someone suggested it might be his computer password

[mileslunn]

I was wondering what others here think of future of PPC?  Was 5% a blip over vaccine mandates or can party sustain itself longer?  I am thinking once pandemic ends if it does, PPC will back to its 2% it got in 2019.  At same time I am not sure it will help Tories as much as some think.  While PPC undoubtedly took some votes that would have gone Conservative otherwise, I don't buy every single PPC voter would have gone Conservative.  I think a fair number were single issue voters and also a lot habitual non-voters who are alienated with system and would just stay home otherwise.

[MaxQue]

Apportionment for new redistricting:

342 seats (+4)
Ontario 122 (+1)
Québec 77 (-1)
BC 43 (+1)
Alberta 37 (+3)

Starting in February, final report by October 2023, would only apply to elections from 2024.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=oct1521&lang=e

[Logical]

Would Quebec accept the loss of a seat? What are the chances of the redistribution formula getting modified midway through the process?

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the chances of the redistribution formula getting modified midway through the process?

Almost 100% certainty.

[toaster]

If Ontario is only adding 1 seat, then Northern Ontario and Rural Ontario will surely be losing some representation/members to the 905.

[beesley]

If Ontario is only adding 1 seat, then Northern Ontario and Rural Ontario will surely be losing some representation/members to the 905.

Which will attract costernation no doubt. And in Quebec, even with the maintenance of 78 seats, the Gaspesie/Bas Saint-Laurent could easily go from four to three, by the looks of it.

[mileslunn]

While provincial politics, BC Liberals just rejected Aaron Gunn as leadership candidate.  Interesting.  No doubt his right wing populist style and more divisive is probably something they didn't want as they need to regain foothold in Lower Mainland and his style of politics is a sure fire way to ensure that doesn't happen.  Do wonder if risk of split although I think much like PPC his supporters are loud on social media but smaller in numbers.

I have long supported parties rejecting candidates that are too extreme.  It seems grassroots parties far from being moderate and more representative tend to attract the most extreme types.  And sort of makes sense as most don't live and breathe politics so those on fringes tend to be angriest and most motivated to sign up.  So while such blockings may seem anti-democratic, I actually think they enhance democracy.  Parties are vehicles for expressing certain values, not open for anyone to hijack.  More importantly a healthy democracy needs at least two if not more parties that are actually capable of winning so by blocking extreme ones, they are doing a service to greater public by ensuring there is a viable alternative if people are unhappy with present government.  So far Horgan government fairly popular, but who knows what it will be like in 2024.  But more importantly popular or not, there should be a viable alternative, not a choice of an extreme party only.  Nothing is stopping Aaron Gunn from starting his own party just like Maxime Bernier did.

[StateBoiler]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2021/10/25/liberal-mps-want-to-know-why-leadership-taking-their-sweet-ass-time-to-call-first-post-election-caucus-meeting-say-liberal-sources/324277?fbclid=IwAR2ljZmFTE3zzEhNEdYrYY14EaBZ0QXgsXB0JT5OyFNPeVa5YioUPJvN8hI

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/drainvillepm/status/1452804253203025923 Globe reporting Guilbeault to Environment, probably Anand to Defence, Hajdu demoted. Also saw that at least 2 people will be dropped entirely.

[beesley]

Harjit Sajjan is being reported as a certain move (but not sacking, just moving to a position like Infrastructure) while Randy Boissonault, Sean Fraser and Pascale-St. Onge are the most likely newcomers.

We'll find out in due course.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1453009204541902855

[mileslunn]

Energy industry won't be happy with Steven Guilbeault as environment minister while climate activists will applaud this.  I would have thought with Kenney's falling approval and electing two Liberal MPs, Trudeau would give an olive branch to province.  This kind of move my just help UCP recover whereas if he had just waited for 18 months until Notley likely wins next election, he could probably get more cooperation with Alberta than would now.

Some like Anita Anand seem like good choices, others like Melanie Joly bad ones.  Dropping Marc Garneau clearly shows he wants to move left and less interested in your more traditionally centrist Liberals.  Also surprised for health minister he didn't chose Brendan Hanley of Yukon as he was PHO during pandemic so would seem like an obvious choice.  But perhaps maybe didn't feel he had chops for cabinet.

[StateBoiler]

Boys in Short Pants
@shortpantspod

Cabinet Observations:

-Surprisingly few machinery of government changes
-Big title bump for Joly, but Foreign Affairs hasn't been prioritized in this government
-Sajjan to International Development, a fairly soft landing for him
-Blair demoted, it's not clear how much the President of Privy Council role entails, Emergency Preparedness is like 1% of the Public Safety portfolio
-Filomena Tassi steps into a big role at Public Services and Procurement
-Joyce Murray gets fish, shifting it back to the West Coast post debacle last year
-Guilbeault to Environment and Climate Change will be interesting, giving the reigns to an activist who might not play well with some stakeholders
-Most of the new women are in junior portfolios
-Tough day for Chagger and Garneau
-The experiment with centralizing the regional economic development agencies has ended, turns out people like regional slush fund ministers
-Accountability exists for letter campaign literature theft caught on camera
-Tourism probably isn't the portfolio Albertans had in mind

[King of Kensington]

Some blue Liberals are seething about the new Trudeau Cabinet

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-blue-liberals-seeing-red-over-new-trudeau-cabinet

[CumbrianLefty]

Which is on balance good, I suppose?

[King of Kensington]

Vancouver is now a "Laurentian" outpost?

The home base of the most senior figures in cabinet is also telling. Mr. Wilkinson and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland like to remind people they were raised on the Prairies. But Ms. Freeland represents the downtown Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, and Mr. Wilkinson represents North Vancouver. Both MPs are Laurentian in outlook to the core.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-cabinets-environmental-focus-could-be-nep-20-in-the-eyes-of/

[Benjamin Frank]

Some blue Liberals are seething about the new Trudeau Cabinet

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-blue-liberals-seeing-red-over-new-trudeau-cabinet

An Ivison column is finally generating some interest.  He seems to be mostly ignored on Twitter.  I'm pretty sure the Blue Liberals he speaks to are John McKay and maybe Wayne Long.  John McKay seems to have become a big hater of Justin Trudeau ever since Trudeau said that only people who are pro-choice (or, more broadly, agree with the Canadian Constitution) could become Liberal nominees going forward.  I doubt that there are many more, if any more, Blue Liberals than that who speak to Ivison.

As to the article, Ivison blocked me on Twitter years ago for telling him, as I'm going to say again right now, that's he's nothing more than a pretend economist.

For instance, the article continues the non economist failing, as is still evident in oil patch propaganda for instance (though they know better) that there is no cost to the economy if climate change isn't addressed.  Of course, climate change is going to cost multiple sectors of the Canadian economy billions of dollars every year from now on.

[mileslunn]

Vancouver is now a "Laurentian" outpost?

The home base of the most senior figures in cabinet is also telling. Mr. Wilkinson and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland like to remind people they were raised on the Prairies. But Ms. Freeland represents the downtown Toronto riding of University-Rosedale, and Mr. Wilkinson represents North Vancouver. Both MPs are Laurentian in outlook to the core.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeau-cabinets-environmental-focus-could-be-nep-20-in-the-eyes-of/

You could say Canada is becoming like US with the progressive establishment coastal areas and the more conservative hinterland.  Nowadays big divide is more urban/rural divide than West/East.

[mileslunn]

Some blue Liberals are seething about the new Trudeau Cabinet

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-blue-liberals-seeing-red-over-new-trudeau-cabinet

Trudeau has always very much been on left of party and a lot of the younger members in party very much lean left have long wanted to purge party of more conservative elements.  I think bigger problem today in politics is hollowing out of centre.  It seems centrist, while still many exist, aren't interested in getting involved in politics.  Its more the ideologues.  Yes O'Toole has tried to moderate but much of his caucus doesn't want to.  With Liberals Trudeau wants to move left and most in party do to with a few exceptions.  Democrats in US and Labour in UK facing same issue.  Many older members know from past party needs to stay close to centre while many younger members want to move party left.  Problem with Liberals is party skews quite young in terms of MPs and cabinet and don't have a lot of older more experienced ones and what few they do, Trudeau has largely dropped.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/stphnmaher/status/1454234044808548354

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/stphnmaher/status/1454234044808548354

It makes sense to me, things are likely going to get a lot worse for a couple years before they get better.  For all of the talk of 'Trudeau called the election to get a majority', I figured he also wanted a renewed mandate before the downturn in order to hopefully get past the downturn before having to go back to the polls. That was what David Peterson hoped to do in 1990.  It didn't work for him, but he did correctly expect that Ontario would have its worst economy since the Great Depression.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/stphnmaher/status/1454234044808548354

It makes sense to me, things are likely going to get a lot worse for a couple years before they get better.  For all of the talk of 'Trudeau called the election to get a majority', I figured he also wanted a renewed mandate before the downturn in order to hopefully get past the downturn before having to go back to the polls. That was what David Peterson hoped to do in 1990.  It didn't work for him, but he did correctly expect that Ontario would have its worst economy since the Great Depression.

Whether it happens or not, I think NDP will be reluctant to pull the plug if the Tories are leading in the polls.  They will basically try to prop up government as long as possible as they know under Liberals they have a chance at getting some things they want, while no chance if Tories win.  I think by 2024, biggest problem Trudeau will have is he will have been in office for 9 years and probably strong desire for change by then.  Now if party gets a new leader, I like their odds.  And off course with Tories a lot depends if O'Toole can moderate as he has tried to or more right wing elements keep the party in infighting as I don't think Tories can win until they marginalize the more right wing elements in party.