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King of Kensington
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« Reply #925 on: June 07, 2021, 12:22:26 PM »

Re: Canadian conservatism and the difference between the median voter/mainstream opinion in US and Canada:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=449931.0
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Njall
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« Reply #926 on: June 07, 2021, 02:45:36 PM »

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.
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sguberman
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« Reply #927 on: June 07, 2021, 03:44:30 PM »

This happened last night
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/muslim-hit-run-nathanial-veltman-murder-b1861370.html
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #928 on: June 07, 2021, 05:22:27 PM »

Oh another thing, the Liberals and the Bloc teaming up to shut down studies on Bill C-10 is a good indicator of an election coming up. The Liberals want to shore up support in Quebec by passing C-10 before the writ drops, and the Bloc wants to say they allowed it to happen.

Frustrating though, real frustrating. I have real concerns about Bill C-10 and shutting down the debate doesn't help with my concerns one bit. The worst part is I know I'm still going to get in line and vote Liberal because I support probably 80% of what this government does, but the other 20% is often so stupid or blatantly anti-parliament that it really makes me cringe
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laddicus finch
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« Reply #929 on: June 07, 2021, 06:20:05 PM »

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.

It's amazing how many bridges Kenney has burned in such a short time. It took the PC dynasty 44 years to become so utterly awful that Albertans ditched them for the crazy far left hippie socialists, and Kenney's UCP might do it in just 4.

Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that Alberta's Conservative party is polling around the same as Ontario's. You'd think hell froze over.

I think people are seeing Kenney for who he really is - a nasty, cynical, opportunistic career politician who maintains his power by stepping on others' toes.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #930 on: June 08, 2021, 12:15:42 AM »

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.

It's amazing how many bridges Kenney has burned in such a short time. It took the PC dynasty 44 years to become so utterly awful that Albertans ditched them for the crazy far left hippie socialists, and Kenney's UCP might do it in just 4.

Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that Alberta's Conservative party is polling around the same as Ontario's. You'd think hell froze over.

I think people are seeing Kenney for who he really is - a nasty, cynical, opportunistic career politician who maintains his power by stepping on others' toes.

Also too much of an ideologue.  Most past PC leaders came from PC side of merger or were at least acceptable to both like Klein.  Kenney is first from Reform/Alliance and generally people from that wing don't win anywhere in Canada.  Alberta voted Reform due to Western Alienation, not because most were as right wing as them.  Never mind that was a quarter of a century ago and province has changed a lot since.

Harper was the exception to this rule as he was a lot more strategic and patient than Kenney and had his eye on the long game.  Very few as conservative as him are like that.  I've found many like this are more about picking fights with their opponents which just angers people and less about governing.  Never mind Harper towards end lost his patience and started acting more like Kenney and lost in big part because of that.  I think for Red Tories since they generally agree with the way Canada operates and its more over details and wanting to be somewhat more conservative, not radical change; they are about governing and willing to work with others and don't have same nasty streak Reform wing does.

A lot from Reform wing are quite bitter as they basically hate everything about modern Canada and rather than strategically trying to move things in their direction, its more about settling scores with other side and owning the left.  That might work in US where country is split almost down middle and is deeply polarized, but not in Canada which is much less polarized and people tend to have an aversion to extremes and division.

Real challenge for NDP is to be moderate and make sure the more radical elements are kept under wraps since if they make too much noise that could sink Notley.  Notley in first term did a good job controlling them and being moderate but some now are frustrated and want a bold left wing platform rather than recognizing Albertans want to get rid of Kenney and be somewhat more progressive, but not a sharp turn left.  Despite stereotype, Alberta by and large is a fairly centrist province and Notley is closer to middle than Kenney thus why ahead.  There is little appetite for an AOC or Corbyn led government in Alberta.  Radical candidates is what sunk Howarth in 2018.  Now Notley to be fair at least has record in government so that somewhat blunts that risk.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #931 on: June 08, 2021, 10:45:00 AM »

Nova Scotia Immigration Minister, Lena Diab is running for the Liberal nomination in Halifax West. The seat is currently held by former Speaker and Cabinet minister Geoff Regan, who is not reoffering.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #932 on: June 08, 2021, 04:52:35 PM »

For those who haven't seen yet, Jason Kenney has drawn another round of public rebukes from caucus members for his response to criticism for being pictured having an unmasked and undistanced dinner with senior cabinet ministers and staff (on the balcony of the infamous room which was to have been former Premier Redford's "Sky Palace." Included amongst this latest group are Leela Aheer (UCP Deputy Leader; Minister of Culture, Multiculturalism and Status of Women; MLA for Chestermere-Strathmore) and Rajan Sawhney (Minister of Community and Social Services; MLA for Calgary-North East) - two of the three women of colour in Kenney's cabinet. Brian Jean has also, unsurprisingly, come out calling for Kenney to resign.

It's amazing how many bridges Kenney has burned in such a short time. It took the PC dynasty 44 years to become so utterly awful that Albertans ditched them for the crazy far left hippie socialists, and Kenney's UCP might do it in just 4.

Imagine someone telling you 10 years ago that Alberta's Conservative party is polling around the same as Ontario's. You'd think hell froze over.

I think people are seeing Kenney for who he really is - a nasty, cynical, opportunistic career politician who maintains his power by stepping on others' toes.

Also too much of an ideologue.  Most past PC leaders came from PC side of merger or were at least acceptable to both like Klein.  Kenney is first from Reform/Alliance and generally people from that wing don't win anywhere in Canada.  Alberta voted Reform due to Western Alienation, not because most were as right wing as them.  Never mind that was a quarter of a century ago and province has changed a lot since.

Harper was the exception to this rule as he was a lot more strategic and patient than Kenney and had his eye on the long game.  Very few as conservative as him are like that.  I've found many like this are more about picking fights with their opponents which just angers people and less about governing.  Never mind Harper towards end lost his patience and started acting more like Kenney and lost in big part because of that.  I think for Red Tories since they generally agree with the way Canada operates and its more over details and wanting to be somewhat more conservative, not radical change; they are about governing and willing to work with others and don't have same nasty streak Reform wing does.

A lot from Reform wing are quite bitter as they basically hate everything about modern Canada and rather than strategically trying to move things in their direction, its more about settling scores with other side and owning the left.  That might work in US where country is split almost down middle and is deeply polarized, but not in Canada which is much less polarized and people tend to have an aversion to extremes and division.

Real challenge for NDP is to be moderate and make sure the more radical elements are kept under wraps since if they make too much noise that could sink Notley.  Notley in first term did a good job controlling them and being moderate but some now are frustrated and want a bold left wing platform rather than recognizing Albertans want to get rid of Kenney and be somewhat more progressive, but not a sharp turn left.  Despite stereotype, Alberta by and large is a fairly centrist province and Notley is closer to middle than Kenney thus why ahead.  There is little appetite for an AOC or Corbyn led government in Alberta.  Radical candidates is what sunk Howarth in 2018.  Now Notley to be fair at least has record in government so that somewhat blunts that risk.

Ideological dogmatism and blinding incompetence are a terrible combination.
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #933 on: June 08, 2021, 05:32:19 PM »

Innovative research toplines (link): LPC 38, CPC 27, NDP 15, BQ 8 (35 in QC), GPC 8, OTH 5

As always Innovative has the Liberals slightly above the polling consensus, but this wouldn't be an unthinkable outcome. I think a lot of those "others" voters and undecideds in the prairies will rally around the CPC come election time, giving them just over 30%. I also predict a Green Party collapse considering how rudderless and invisible they've been post-Lizzy May, which will likely help the Liberals.

I post this poll because I found Innovative Research's "value cluster" idea really interesting. I remember in the last election they had a "seat cluster" model based on 2011 and 2015 results, which I think was a terrible model because things have changed a lot since 2011. I mean, they had Regina-Wascana in the "solid Liberal" cluster in that model, and obviously Regina-Wascana is nothing like Ottawa-Vanier.

Here are their "value cluster" breakdowns:

Populist Conservatives: CPC +35 (over OTH)
Deferential Conservatives: CPC +9 (over LPC)
Business Liberals: LPC +22 (over CPC)
Left Liberals: LPC +20 (over both CPC and NDP)
Core Left: LPC +19 (over NDP)
Thrifty Moderates: LPC +10 (over CPC)

Here are their breakdowns by socio-economic clusters:
Achievers: LPC +9 (over CPC)
Strugglers: TIED (LPC and CPC)
Ambivalent: LPC +19 (over CPC)
Alienated: LPC +12 (over NDP)

The methodology to determine these clusters is explained in the report.

Really highlights the Liberals' strengths and the CPC's struggles. Liberals are popular across the political spectrum, really with the exception of the solid right-wing. They lead among people with left-wing values, moderates, and their support reaches into some people with conservative values. The CPC should be doing much better among "deferential conservatives" and "thrifty moderates", and chipping into the "business liberal" vote.
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JoeyOCanada
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« Reply #934 on: June 08, 2021, 05:54:07 PM »

Nova Scotia Immigration Minister, Lena Diab is running for the Liberal nomination in Halifax West. The seat is currently held by former Speaker and Cabinet minister Geoff Regan, who is not reoffering.

Likely an easy win for any Liberal that runs in that riding.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #935 on: June 08, 2021, 08:42:29 PM »

The NDP and Tories are tied with "Left Liberals"?
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« Reply #936 on: June 08, 2021, 09:30:01 PM »

The NDP and Tories are tied with "Left Liberals"?

Basically they define "Left Liberals" as people who believe that...
- government spending should be based on public need, not ability to afford
- the main role of government is to create opportunity, not redistribute wealth
- the profit motive brings out the worst in human nature

Left Liberals are basically tied in the "listen to experts vs rely on common sense" dichotomy, which I question a bit, but the other definitions check out.

These voters apparently go 20% to the CPC and NDP each. I don't see much "Conservative values" in those tenets, but people do weird things. I've met people with decidedly left-wing opinions support CPC, and people with decidedly right-wing opinions support one of the progressive parties. Makes no sense, but people's voting habits are never strictly ideological.

Or all this could be wrong, it's just one poll after all, and this "voter cluster" thing is a new thing. But it's interesting all the same. Maybe one day we'll get a detailed "political tribes" analysis like they have in the UK...
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mileslunn
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« Reply #937 on: June 08, 2021, 09:55:30 PM »

The NDP and Tories are tied with "Left Liberals"?

Basically they define "Left Liberals" as people who believe that...
- government spending should be based on public need, not ability to afford
- the main role of government is to create opportunity, not redistribute wealth
- the profit motive brings out the worst in human nature

Left Liberals are basically tied in the "listen to experts vs rely on common sense" dichotomy, which I question a bit, but the other definitions check out.

These voters apparently go 20% to the CPC and NDP each. I don't see much "Conservative values" in those tenets, but people do weird things. I've met people with decidedly left-wing opinions support CPC, and people with decidedly right-wing opinions support one of the progressive parties. Makes no sense, but people's voting habits are never strictly ideological.

Or all this could be wrong, it's just one poll after all, and this "voter cluster" thing is a new thing. But it's interesting all the same. Maybe one day we'll get a detailed "political tribes" analysis like they have in the UK...

I suspect a lot of the left wing types voting Conservative are probably in Alberta and Saskatchewan and do so more over regionalism than ideology.  Tories federally tend to do about 10 points better in Alberta than they do provincially so while that wouldn't explain all them, I imagine many who voted for Notley provincially but then Harper 2015 and Scheer 2019 would fall into this category. 

I see a lot more on right vote for progressive parties but usually they are moderate right and claim Tories too far right even if their views are every bit as right wing as Tories.  Generally opposition to Tories especially when in not in power is able to paint them is being far more extreme than really are.  It also doesn't help with social media that the most extreme elements in party tend to be nosiest while the more moderate types tend to a be a lot quieter so someone who doesn't follow politics may think this.

While not as much in Canada, in US and Europe you are getting a real woke backlash so you have lots who are economically left wing but culturally conservative who used to vote for parties on left but now vote right.  So could be this group too, although blue collar voters swinging right doesn't seem nearly as prevalent as in many other jurisdictions.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #938 on: June 08, 2021, 10:32:03 PM »

While not as much in Canada, in US and Europe you are getting a real woke backlash so you have lots who are economically left wing but culturally conservative who used to vote for parties on left but now vote right.  So could be this group too, although blue collar voters swinging right doesn't seem nearly as prevalent as in many other jurisdictions.

Erin O'Toole's attempt to appeal to this constituency (which he says is modelled on Boris Johnson) hasn't really seemed to gone anywhere.

Places like Niagara Region or Sault Ste. Marie would be a lot more "Trumpy" if they were in the US.  Not that O'Toole is comparable to Trump, but shows that conservative views a minority among WWC in Ontario rust belt. 
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mileslunn
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« Reply #939 on: June 08, 2021, 11:29:16 PM »

While not as much in Canada, in US and Europe you are getting a real woke backlash so you have lots who are economically left wing but culturally conservative who used to vote for parties on left but now vote right.  So could be this group too, although blue collar voters swinging right doesn't seem nearly as prevalent as in many other jurisdictions.

Erin O'Toole's attempt to appeal to this constituency (which he says is modelled on Boris Johnson) hasn't really seemed to gone anywhere.

Places like Niagara Region or Sault Ste. Marie would be a lot more "Trumpy" if they were in the US.  Not that O'Toole is comparable to Trump, but shows that conservative views a minority among WWC in Ontario rust belt. 

All anecdotal, but I think a lot may not care for woke PC ideas but as a culture that values politeness we tend to go along with it.  On other hand I think class is a bigger issue in Canada than US despite fact gap between rich and poor much smaller.  Most polls show concerns about income inequality much higher in Canada than US.  Perhaps because of how bad it is in US, many fear if right wins it will become like that eventually while Europe is a whole ocean away so less of an issue.  Still you are seeing some shifts but not as dramatic as elsewhere.

Essex, Oshawa, and Brantford-Brant are all Conservative held ridings and 30 years ago those were ridings they never won even in good election much less held in bad one.  Niagara Centre and Sault Ste. Marie maybe haven't flipped Tory, but Tory support in those two is usually close to Ontario overall numbers whereas 30 years ago it was usually 10-20 points below Ontario overall numbers.

You could say same in BC as NDP won several seats in BC Interior in 1991 and 1996 election while in 2020 fared rather poorly despite overall landslide.  Places like Kamloops, Prince George, Cariboo, and East Kootenays used to be places NDP was competitive in provincially while now all safe BC Liberal/federal Tory ridings.  However on Vancouver Island in WWC areas like North Island-Powell River you have not seen a similar swing to right like you have in Interior.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #940 on: June 08, 2021, 11:36:37 PM »

Agree there's been a rightward shift among WWC in Ontario rust belt and BC interior.  Van Island has been largely immune as it's culturally very "Left Coast."
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mileslunn
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« Reply #941 on: June 09, 2021, 12:04:32 AM »

Agree there's been a rightward shift among WWC in Ontario rust belt and BC interior.  Van Island has been largely immune as it's culturally very "Left Coast."

Which is interesting as Olympic Peninsula in Washington state has swung right but its more resource based while Vancouver Island has many retirees, small alternative businesses, large civil service in Victoria so more diversified.
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« Reply #942 on: June 09, 2021, 12:07:29 AM »

Saskatchewan was once the stronghold of the CCF and NDP, and now it's the most conservative province.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #943 on: June 09, 2021, 08:24:30 AM »

I absolutely hate the fact that the Liberals have a 20 point lead among the "core left"
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #944 on: June 09, 2021, 11:53:28 AM »

To add insult to injury, the NDP are tied among left liberals with... the Tories?
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #945 on: June 09, 2021, 12:34:29 PM »

Saskatchewan was once the stronghold of the CCF and NDP, and now it's the most conservative province.

Yup, it's the North Dakota of Canada.
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beesley
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« Reply #946 on: June 09, 2021, 01:04:47 PM »

Go on Kenney, call an election.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #947 on: June 09, 2021, 01:21:15 PM »

Angus-Reid out with quarterly premier approval ratings  https://angusreid.org/premier-approval-june2021/ .  Most looking good but Ford, Kenney, and Pallister in bad shape.  All three have negative approval ratings unlike other 6 premiers polled (PEI not included) but at same time not necessarily fatal.  None are yet at Wynne like levels while for premiers with similarly low ratings, it is a mixed bag.  Rachel Notley, Philippe Couillard, and Brian Gallant lost with such numbers but Christy Clark came within one seat of a majority while Jean Charest and Dalton McGuinty got re-elected with ratings that low so it is possible to win at that low if opponent is lousy enough.  Off course these are snapshots and undoubtedly will change between now and election day.  If they rebound, then re-elected, if fall further then toast.

Also gives vote intention for each province so see below

BC: Horgan has massive lead but with BC Liberals leaderless, I expect that to tighten and election is still more than 3 years away so lots can happen.  Nonetheless he is in a good spot and BC Liberals have a huge hole to climb out of.

Alberta: Notley like other polls is ahead by 11 points so looks in good shape to win at moment, but Wildrose Independence party at 20% showing Kenney is not just bleeding on centrist flank, but also right flank.  This is very similar to Mainstreet so 2015 all over again with more favouring parties on right than left but right split.  Real question is will this hold or will fear of another NDP government be enough to get Wildrose voters to swing back to UCP?

Saskatchewan: Moe has massive lead as usual so nothing new here.

Manitoba: NDP slightly ahead like other polls but despite a real bad month, PCs still competitive.  At same time PC vote tends to be quite inefficient as they run up margins in rural areas so probably need a 5 point lead to be sure of win seat wise.  But still over 2 years left so time to move in either direction.

Ontario: Ford has a 4 point lead and at 37% and that is within MOE of other polls 33-37%, but NDP on high side and Liberals on low side.  Like others, only a slight rebound needed to win a majority and in fact at 37% that might be enough there.  But at same time unlike last year, he is vulnerable and a lot will depend if progressives coalesce around one party or split.  It does seem though Howarth more popular than Del Duca by same token you have some Blue Liberals in 905 who are fine voting Liberal, but if an NDP-PC race, will go PC like in 2011 federally and 2018 provincially.

Quebec: Legault has a big lead so short of a monumental blunder, he should likely waltz to a landslide.

New Brunswick: Higgs is slightly ahead but with strong linguistic divide and fact he lost popular vote by 6 points but still won most seats in 2018 means probably enough for a majority but a lot can change in next 3 years.  Actually NB numbers suggest very little has changed since election last September.

Nova Scotia: Liberals have an 8 point lead which is decent, but not insurmountable.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Results almost identical to last election which is no surprise.  Still with an election 4 years away and lots of tough choices I suspect things will change but exactly how remains to be seen.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #948 on: June 10, 2021, 10:50:24 AM »

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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #949 on: June 10, 2021, 10:51:38 AM »


One of the greatest green breakthroughs and she just leaves.
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