Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Other big news is 215 bodies discovered in unmarked graves from Kamloops residential school.  While First Nation's issues sadly don't get a lot of attention, this definitely is big news and shows just how much needs to be done here.  Also probably a shock too many as while most knew residential schools were bad, I don't think many realized just how many died in them.  Be interesting if with this shocking news, what plans are of various governments and more importantly will this become a bigger issue or will like usual it be old news by election day.  One would hope former, but sadly probably the latter.

[Bootes Void]

Other big news is 215 bodies discovered in unmarked graves from Kamloops residential school.  While First Nation's issues sadly don't get a lot of attention, this definitely is big news and shows just how much needs to be done here.  Also probably a shock too many as while most knew residential schools were bad, I don't think many realized just how many died in them.  Be interesting if with this shocking news, what plans are of various governments and more importantly will this become a bigger issue or will like usual it be old news by election day.  One would hope former, but sadly probably the latter.

There's probably a lot more of these, as this isn't the only one. Just a question of where other graves are hidden

[DC Al Fine]

As for next Tory PM, I think if O'Toole loses as likely, Lewis is probably favourite as you win leadership by pandering to base not median voter and often types who win leadership races are types least electable in a general election.  Poilievre if he runs another possible.  He is a good pit bull and good at taking down other side, but I think his nastiness would be a turn off especially to female voters.  Never mind on economic policy he is very much a Thatcherite and not sure there is much appetite for that type of policy right now.  Peter MacKay probably runs again, but only way I see him winning nomination is if he signs up a lot of new members.  I think his chances are better if Liberals become very unpopular as more opportunity to sign up people outside base.  Most outside base may have some things they disagree with Trudeau on, but aren't absolutely determined to see him defeated.  Jason Kenney may run and even if he loses in Alberta, he may still go although I think his position in Alberta has made him damaged goods.  Obviously he has little appeal to moderates while base is angry he didn't take approach like DeSantis or Abbott of Texas and just re-open fully irrespective of cases.

Lewis: She's interesting because she bucks the stereotype of the angry old white guy so-con, but her views would make her an easy target. Being pro-life AND not speaking French basically makes her unelectable in Quebec. If the hope is that a socially conservative visible minority could appeal to Ontario's electorally decisive ethnoburbia, yeah, I'll believe it when I see it.

Poilievre: As a Liberal, please give me Poilievre as the CPC leader. An unlikable, unelectable dips**t is the last thing the CPC needs.

MacKay: Pretty much agree with what you said about him, though I am starting to doubt his political chops. I think his being the last leader of the PCs (which was a zombie party at the time) and a co-founder of the CPC has amplified his reputation beyond his actual abilities as a politician.

Kenney: Burned too many bridges at this point.

Forget winning an election, I question the ability of all those non-Kenney candidates to put together a coalition to win the party leadership, and I highly doubt Kenney or MacKay run next time. Your suggestion that the next leader will likely be a parliamentary outsider or someone who didn't have a major role in Harper's cabinet was bang on. Leadership speculation ia always too focused on the past, often to a ridiculous extent (see also: Jean Charest).

I also think long term if Tories keep on electing crazy leaders, not totally impossible federal parties start to mirror BC where Liberals become more a pro free enterprise but socially liberal party and NDP becomes a broad based progressive one so progressive liberals go over to NDP, but moderate Tories go over to Liberals.  But that would take at least a decade or more to happen.  If you are an NDP member this would be good as could win sometimes while if a pro free market type also good as your side while under a different label would win more often than they do now.

This is possible if the CPC completely implodes and bleeds moderates, because it would require a real rightward shift in the culture of the LPC. The Liberal Party's broader ideology is fundamentally centrist, but there's been a clear leftward shift in their priorities under Trudeau. I think the status quo of the Liberals remaining the default centre-left party and CPC remaining the default centre-right party is far more likely than the CPC imploding. The scenario you've described would require that the CPC shifts even more to the right post-O'Toole, leaving people like Michael Chong politically homeless and the Liberals moving right to pick up those red tories. (Edit): OR, the CPC establishment continues to make a leftward shift, pissing off their base and creating Reform Party 2: Vote-Splitting Boogaloo. But by its very nature, conservatism shifts over time and adapts to the cultural context of its era. Millennials will get older, and the social order they try to preserve will be different from what Boomers and Gen-Xers try to preserve. It's rare that a major party in a two-party system fails to adapt to changing times.

But the Liberals these days arguably fear the left more than the right because there are now three parties trying to chip at the Liberals' left flank. Trying to move to the right and pick up PCs is a high-risk move when much of the Liberals' current crop comes 2015, and the left-of-Liberal parties are begging for the Liberals to validate their argument that the Liberals aren't actually progressive.

Agreed.

There's something faintly ridiculous about questioning the long term viability of a party that's *checks polling average* only down 5-6 points to a government in its second term. Obviously the Tories aren't doing great right now, but it's silly to act like they can't possibly make up that small of a gap in a country like Canada and the Liberals will govern forever and ever amen.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah the Canadian Tories certainly have problems, but writing them off forever is a mug's game.

[NewYorkExpress]

Following the discovery of the remains of 215 children at an indigenous school in Kamloops, British Columbia, the Canadian Government is calling on the Pope to apologize for the Catholic Church's role in the schools.

Canada’s government has called on Pope Francis to issue a formal apology for the role the Catholic church played in Canada’s residential school system, days after the remains of 215 children were located at what was once the country’s largest such school.

Justin Trudeau’s government also pledged again to support efforts to find more unmarked graves at the former residential schools which held Indigenous children taken from families across the nation.


.......

The Canadian Conference of Catholic Bishops announced in 2018 that the pope could not personally apologize for residential schools, even though he has not shied away from recognizing injustices faced by Indigenous people around the world.

“I think it is shameful that it hasn’t been done to date,” Marc Miller, Indigenous services minister, said.

“There is a responsibility that lies squarely on the shoulders” on the Catholic bishops of Canada, he added.

Carolyn Bennett, Indigenous relations minister, added that an apology by the pope would help those who suffered heal.

“They want to hear the pope apologize,” she said.

[Хahar 🤔]

There's something faintly ridiculous about questioning the long term viability of a party that's *checks polling average* only down 5-6 points to a government in its second term. Obviously the Tories aren't doing great right now, but it's silly to act like they can't possibly make up that small of a gap in a country like Canada and the Liberals will govern forever and ever amen.

Yeah, I find the tenor of posts here (mostly mileslunn's, I guess) incongruous with the fact that, last I checked, the Conservative Party won the most votes at the last federal election.

[mileslunn]

There's something faintly ridiculous about questioning the long term viability of a party that's *checks polling average* only down 5-6 points to a government in its second term. Obviously the Tories aren't doing great right now, but it's silly to act like they can't possibly make up that small of a gap in a country like Canada and the Liberals will govern forever and ever amen.

Yeah, I find the tenor of posts here (mostly mileslunn's, I guess) incongruous with the fact that, last I checked, the Conservative Party won the most votes at the last federal election.

They won popular vote, but their vote very inefficient, largely due to running up margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Never mind that was pre-pandemic and pandemic changed a lot.  While I wouldn't say Tories dead, certainly still at 30% in polls, I do think their support amongst millennials should make them worried.  Yes old saying is people get more conservative as they age, but that is greatly exaggerated.  Lets remember most boomers remember old PCs thus many believe party will eventually return to roots and willing to come back then.  Most millennials only remember Tories led by more ideological leaders thus see Tories same way boomers see NDP, too ideological and won't even consider even if leader moderate. 

NDP faces this issue with boomers and in BC couldn't even win popular vote and most seats in 2017 despite 16 years of BC Liberals while in Ontario fear of another Rae government kept many away.  Off course possible Gen Z or generations after will be more conservative.  In many European countries, right is strongest amongst younger voters and its older voters favouring left so always possible in 30 years you see reverse of now with Tories strong amongst younger voters and weak amongst older (today's millennials).

Not saying Tories won't ever win again, but I think its a decade away before returning power.  I think base is becoming even more right wing as more going to right wing echo chambers thus in order to win nomination you have to be well to right of median voter.  A moderate type who could win general election like Jean Charest or Michael Chong would never win nomination thus problem for party.  Yes you can flip flop like O'Toole but that just angers both sides it seems.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

There's something faintly ridiculous about questioning the long term viability of a party that's *checks polling average* only down 5-6 points to a government in its second term. Obviously the Tories aren't doing great right now, but it's silly to act like they can't possibly make up that small of a gap in a country like Canada and the Liberals will govern forever and ever amen.

Yeah, I find the tenor of posts here (mostly mileslunn's, I guess) incongruous with the fact that, last I checked, the Conservative Party won the most votes at the last federal election.

They won popular vote, but their vote very inefficient, largely due to running up margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan.  Never mind that was pre-pandemic and pandemic changed a lot.  While I wouldn't say Tories dead, certainly still at 30% in polls, I do think their support amongst millennials should make them worried.  Yes old saying is people get more conservative as they age, but that is greatly exaggerated.  Lets remember most boomers remember old PCs thus many believe party will eventually return to roots and willing to come back then.  Most millennials only remember Tories led by more ideological leaders thus see Tories same way boomers see NDP, too ideological and won't even consider even if leader moderate. 

NDP faces this issue with boomers and in BC couldn't even win popular vote and most seats in 2017 despite 16 years of BC Liberals while in Ontario fear of another Rae government kept many away.  Off course possible Gen Z or generations after will be more conservative.  In many European countries, right is strongest amongst younger voters and its older voters favouring left so always possible in 30 years you see reverse of now with Tories strong amongst younger voters and weak amongst older (today's millennials).

Not saying Tories won't ever win again, but I think its a decade away before returning power.  I think base is becoming even more right wing as more going to right wing echo chambers thus in order to win nomination you have to be well to right of median voter.  A moderate type who could win general election like Jean Charest or Michael Chong would never win nomination thus problem for party.  Yes you can flip flop like O'Toole but that just angers both sides it seems.

What's interesting about Canada's political demographics is that older voters split evenly between the Liberals and the CPC, or at least they have under Trudeau. But if those boomers are upset with the Liberals, they sure ain't going to the NDP, at least not in large numbers. So let's say the Liberals mess up bad and Trudeau's teflon has worn off (or he's gone and Freeland is in charge, who is generally liked as a minister, but we haven't seen her on the campaign trail). Younger Liberal voters, if they decide to ditch the Liberals, will largely break for the NDP and Greens (and possibly the Bloc in Quebec). Older Liberals however are much more likely to swing to the CPC (and possibly the Bloc in Quebec). And since the CPC is starting out from a stronger position than the NDP, on balance, this makes a CPC government more likely. The CPC seems dead in the water now, but that's not always going to be the case.

As for majority vs minority: if the CPC wins a minority at any point in the next few years, I doubt the progressive forces rally around the Liberals. Let's not forget that for five years, Harper governed with a minority, and Layton and Duceppe were happy to let him govern instead of the Liberals (except for that weird coalition drama in 2008). If anything, the NDP would rather have a Conservative government than a Liberal one, because that's usually when the NDP does best. What the NDP ultimately wants is to replace the Liberals as the default centre-left party, as they did briefly from 2011-2015. And it's much easier for an ideologically firm party to grow its support with a message of "this right wing government is destroying everything progressives stand for!" rather than "this centre left government isn't going far enough!"

[mileslunn]

And true Liberals do have issue of fighting a two front war thus naturally being closest to median voter serves them well, but as we saw in Ontario and federally in 2011 also problematic if they get squeezed out.  Still I think NDP's hope Liberals go way Liberal Democrats do seems unlikely.  Liberal Democrats I don't think were as flexible as Liberals in Canada in moving with the winds.  Federal Liberals tend to swing left or right depending on mood.  More left leaning in 60s and 70s while more right leaning in 90s and now more left leaning.  Also today's progressives unlike in past tend to be reasonably well off as opposed to blue collar types so that helps Liberals.  It seems in Canada much like US, left does better in more upper middle class areas than blue collar, sort of opposite of how things were traditionally.  Part of reason Labour is struggling so much in UK, is they are a bridge too far to breakthrough into upper middle class college educated areas unlike Liberals or Democrats.

There is also question for Tories, do they try to be upper middle class party like PCs were under Mulroney or more blue collar type like Trump and many right wing populist in Europe are.  In countries with PR, generally you have a centre-right that appeals to former and more populist right appeals to latter.  I think former doable if Liberals drift too far left.  Generally as rule of thumb people won't vote anyone who raises their taxes and if Liberals decide to start targeting top 10% instead of just top 1% for tax hikes that might create an opening as top 1% too small to win an election, but top 10% make up a key part of Liberal base.  Latter has worked well elsewhere but might be harder in Canada as a lot of the working class are in large urban areas that vote left as opposed to smaller communities where there is more of a market for this.  Still latter may allow Tories to gain in Northern Ontario and could help in ridings like Niagara Centre.  Essentially, former regains ridings like Burlington and Kanata-Carleton while latter gains Niagara Centre.  Challenge is type of policy that appeals to both, I am not sure that will be easy.

Boris Johnson united both as Corbyn was so far left that was easy to do, but if Labour had a more moderate leader, not sure he would have done as well.  Still probably won, but not by as big a margin.  For Trump it worked in 2016, but backfired in 2020 as while held the gains from 2016, lost many traditional Republican suburbs in 2020 thus risk there.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And true Liberals do have issue of fighting a two front war thus naturally being closest to median voter serves them well, but as we saw in Ontario and federally in 2011 also problematic if they get squeezed out.  Still I think NDP's hope Liberals go way Liberal Democrats do seems unlikely.  Liberal Democrats I don't think were as flexible as Liberals in Canada in moving with the winds.  Federal Liberals tend to swing left or right depending on mood.  More left leaning in 60s and 70s while more right leaning in 90s and now more left leaning.  Also today's progressives unlike in past tend to be reasonably well off as opposed to blue collar types so that helps Liberals.  It seems in Canada much like US, left does better in more upper middle class areas than blue collar, sort of opposite of how things were traditionally.  Part of reason Labour is struggling so much in UK, is they are a bridge too far to breakthrough into upper middle class college educated areas unlike Liberals or Democrats.

There is also question for Tories, do they try to be upper middle class party like PCs were under Mulroney or more blue collar type like Trump and many right wing populist in Europe are.  In countries with PR, generally you have a centre-right that appeals to former and more populist right appeals to latter.  I think former doable if Liberals drift too far left.  Generally as rule of thumb people won't vote anyone who raises their taxes and if Liberals decide to start targeting top 10% instead of just top 1% for tax hikes that might create an opening as top 1% too small to win an election, but top 10% make up a key part of Liberal base.  Latter has worked well elsewhere but might be harder in Canada as a lot of the working class are in large urban areas that vote left as opposed to smaller communities where there is more of a market for this.  Still latter may allow Tories to gain in Northern Ontario and could help in ridings like Niagara Centre.  Essentially, former regains ridings like Burlington and Kanata-Carleton while latter gains Niagara Centre.  Challenge is type of policy that appeals to both, I am not sure that will be easy.

Boris Johnson united both as Corbyn was so far left that was easy to do, but if Labour had a more moderate leader, not sure he would have done as well.  Still probably won, but not by as big a margin.  For Trump it worked in 2016, but backfired in 2020 as while held the gains from 2016, lost many traditional Republican suburbs in 2020 thus risk there.

Well, they have to do both. You can't win a Canadian election without being at least somewhat of a big tent party. Even Mulroney's PCs were a pretty big tent, it included some members (particularly those from Quebec) who were basically left-wing but joined the PCs because of the constitution issue, and there were some pretty hardline right-wingers in Mulroney's caucus. In fact that's what made the Mulroney government so unstable, but it also won two majorities. A smaller, more manageable tent than that is what they should aim for - but you still need a pretty broad tent.

It can be done, but yeah it's much harder for the CPC. There's an increasing gap between the general political consensus in Canada and the CPC base, even though some in the Conservative "establishment" are increasingly moving to the left, or at least going for a softer, more PC image (in both meanings of the word). But this just widens the gap. That said, you can't just ignore your base. In a FPTP system, you'll have to find some compromise position that unites different wings.

In 2006, Harper's big thing was the accountability act, and fighting corruption generally. He found a sweet spot where he had the moral high ground on the Liberals, and it was something that both moderates and wingnuts could agree on. O'Toole needs to find something like that if he wants even a shot at forming government (at this point, I'm sure even an increased caucus would go down as a win). But that "Policy X" can't be about the environment or social issues because clearly those are areas where the Conservative Party has no consensus and there's little middle ground to be had.

[JerryArkansas]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

[mileslunn]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

I would say October 19th week is most likely as that way all rookies from 2015 qualify for pensions.  Only thing I think that prevents a fall election is a new variant emerges that evades vaccines in which case they will hold off until everyone has their booster shots.  That is going to be the big race with COVID-19 is vaccines keeping up with variants.  So far they are working reasonably well but as virus mutates very real chance one emerges that evades it.  More likely arises in developing countries where vaccines are being rolled out much slower.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

Does the pensions thing, in your opinion, feel like a concern that is particularly valid?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

Does the pensions thing, in your opinion, feel like a concern that is particularly valid?

In a democratic sense? No, not at all, our electoral policy shouldn't be at the mercy of politicians wanting a pension. But if I were a Liberal MP from the class of 2015, particularly in a competitive riding, I'd rather Trudeau call it after my pension is locked in.

By my count, 86/154 or 56% of Liberal MPs fall in this category of "elected in 2015 and seeking re-election". Most of them have safe seats and polling is good for the Liberals but any election is inherently a risk. I bet at least some of them are asking the big boss to hold his horses, but whether or not there's a real push or if Trudeau even cares, I can't say, because somehow this random talkelections poster doesn't get invited to Liberal caucus meetings!

[2952-0-0]

...or, maybe Trudeau wants to call the election before the six-year threshold, so that the 86 incumbent Liberal MPs would campaign harder??

[Benjamin Frank]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

Does the pensions thing, in your opinion, feel like a concern that is particularly valid?

I don't know if this was a factor, but the 2020 New Brunswick provincial was also held right around the 2 year mark of the 2018 election.

M.Ps don't talk about it publicly, but privately it's said that it's something they're very protective of. So, they're likely very sympathetic to getting through the 2 year mark.

As Liberal M.P David Dingwall said about 15 years ago now "I'm entitled to my entitlements."

[DC Al Fine]

I have a hard time imagining Trudeau, or any major leader for that matter, caring about backbencher pensions. If he thinks he has a better shot at a majority before Oct 19th, we'll go before Oct 19th, if he thinks he has a better shot after, we'll go after.

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Yeah, we're probably going to the polls in the fall. Only thing that would give me pause is that most polling aggregators only have the Liberals up ~5 points and only give ~50/50 odds of a majority if an election were held today. There's a chance he holds off if those figures don't improve.

[CumbrianLefty]

As Liberal M.P David Dingwall said about 15 years ago now "I'm entitled to my entitlements."

A good line tbf.

[DC Al Fine]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HoCChamber/status/1400456918594768906

Perhaps I spoke too soon about holding off on an election...

[MaxQue]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

The Bloc, however, is opposed to a October election as it would clash with the Quebec municipal elections. They seem to only support an election called called in August for mid-September.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I don't wanna open a thread up yet since it's way too soon but we all think its better than 50/50 odds for a fall election?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-electoral-urgency-clause-1.6053095This along with the motion to allow for final speeches in mid-June seem to be pointing to an early call.

Oh it's happening. With vaccinations sorted out, there won't be a more opportune time for the Liberals to pull the plug. The Bloc has said they want an election too. The CPC will ring their hands for a few days about Trudeau calling an early election - then again, the man could hardly breathe air without causing a Conservative outrage. The NDP and Greens probably don't want an election though, the latter are in an internal crisis (not that it matters what a caucus of three thinks), and the NDP doesn't have anything to gain from a potential Liberal majority. But the Liberals seem to want an election, so they'll get it. The only real roadblock is the LPC's class of 2015 worrying about their sweet sweet pensions, which won't be an issue in a couple of months.

The Bloc, however, is opposed to a October election as it would clash with the Quebec municipal elections. They seem to only support an election called called in August for mid-September.

Ah, I missed that reasoning, because that does change the calculation a bit. So the question is, would Trudeau rather placate his vulnerable backbenchers, or hold it at a convenient time for the province that holds the keys to his majority? I think it's pretty clear, we're going to the polls boys!

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://mobile.twitter.com/HoCChamber/status/1400456918594768906
Perhaps I spoke too soon about holding off on an election...

How does the Canadian Dairy Commission/Centre for Disease Control have anything to do with this  

But yeah it seems like everything is pointing to an early fall election.

[mileslunn]

I think pensions will play a role as most in politics know the pre-election polls don't always turn out that way and while Liberals may be in good shape to gain seats; there have been more than enough instances throughout history at both provincial and federal level where final results have turned out much differently than anticipated.  Even in terms of safe Liberal seats, there are actually very few ridings that Liberals always win, most if they implode bad enough could be lost; just a question of which direction.  Off course agreed that any riding they won by more than 20 points in 2019 they are probably likely to hold, but many would just rather be safe than sorry.  At least if they wait until October 19th, guaranteed their pensions vs. just highly likely to get it.  At same time I suspect age may have some factor as MPs in their 50s are probably thinking about retirement whereas those in 30s its so far in the future that probably less of a concern.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are the already scheduled Fall elections that will have to be taken into account when calling a Fall federal election:

September 28: Newfoundland and Labrador municipal elections
October 18: Alberta municipal elections, Alberta Senate nominee election and 2021 Alberta equalization referendum
October 19: Northwest Territories municipal elections (taxed communities)
October 21: Yukon municipal elections
On or before October 25: Nunavut general election
November 7: Quebec municipal elections
December 13: Northwest Territories municipal elections (hamlets)

The big ones being of course the Alberta and Quebec municipal elections. Wonder if a December election would be preferred?