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MaxQue
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« Reply #875 on: May 25, 2021, 03:46:45 PM »

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.


I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  


What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

This. If Kenney were to pull a stunt like this (I doubt it), it would be about pipelines or carbon taxes, not language.

I think Kenney still has federal ambitions and while yes with way things are going in Alberta, chances of him every becoming PM are pretty close to zero, but he knows something like this would end that.  Also he says Legault as an ally since despite differences, both want Ottawa to stay out of provincial affairs.

More likely you get a municipality somewhere doing this.  In addition unlike 90s, we have a much larger immigration population so an English only policy would come across as not just anti-French, but anti-immigrant too thus why less likely. 



Municipalities don't have a Constitution that's part of the federal Constitution.

True, but could make municipal bylaw as that is what Sault Ste. Marie did in 1990.  But at same time I think backlash to that would be much stronger as many would see it as anti-immigrant too.

It was thinkfulyl stuck down by courts and a non far right mayor apologized in 2010 for that disgusting piece of bigotry.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #876 on: May 25, 2021, 03:48:41 PM »

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.


I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  


What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

This. If Kenney were to pull a stunt like this (I doubt it), it would be about pipelines or carbon taxes, not language.

I think Kenney still has federal ambitions and while yes with way things are going in Alberta, chances of him every becoming PM are pretty close to zero, but he knows something like this would end that.  Also he says Legault as an ally since despite differences, both want Ottawa to stay out of provincial affairs.

More likely you get a municipality somewhere doing this.  In addition unlike 90s, we have a much larger immigration population so an English only policy would come across as not just anti-French, but anti-immigrant too thus why less likely. 



Municipalities don't have a Constitution that's part of the federal Constitution.

True, but could make municipal bylaw as that is what Sault Ste. Marie did in 1990.  But at same time I think backlash to that would be much stronger as many would see it as anti-immigrant too.

It was thinkfulyl stuck down by courts and a non far right mayor apologized in 2010 for that disgusting piece of bigotry.

Absolutely and if done it would probably be somewhere in rural Alberta.  The same place where you lots of anti-lockdown, anti-mask types and many who think individuals should be able to own assault weapons and thought Trump was a good president.  While a small portion of Canada, such communities do exist although very much a minority.
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« Reply #877 on: May 25, 2021, 05:05:03 PM »

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.

All of what you said is valid, but let's keep one thing in mind - the Canadian electorate is erratic and hard to predict. Only a few months before the 2011 election, nobody saw the NDP forming official opposition and sweeping Quebec. And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority. Sure things are different now without Harper, but the voters in this country are remarkably nonpartisan and things can change dramatically. I think the Liberals would be making a huge mistake if they take a blasé or complacent approach.
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Poirot
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« Reply #878 on: May 25, 2021, 08:48:09 PM »

Municipal elections in Quebec are in November. There are going to be new faces in major cities because the incumbent is retiring in Quebec City, Laval, Gatineau and Longueuil. Montreal will have a familiar face but will it keep Valérie Plante or see the return of Denis Coderre.

A Léger poll of 500 people gives 46% of decided voters for Coderre, 34% for Plante and 19% for other candidates. Plante does best with younger voters. Coderre leads among non francophone voters 51% to 23%. Francophones are split, 44% Plante 42% Coderre.

44% are satisfied with the work of Plante, 50% not satisfied. 60% want a change of mayor while 24% would keep the mayor. Coderre is preferred on issues like economic recovery of the city, roads, municipal taxes, municipal services, and security. Plante is prefered for making arts accessible, public transit, green spaces and bike paths. 
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MaxQue
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« Reply #879 on: May 26, 2021, 03:44:18 PM »

Surprised nobody's brought up Quebec's unilateral amendment of the constitution.

I'm not surprised Trudeau supported this decision, he needs Legault voters in the next election. But he may just have opened up a can of worms.


I could see a right wing party, especially Jason Kenney in Alberta, seeking to declare their province with English as the only official language and getting a unilateral amendment to the constitution to get it declared as such.  


What is this, the early 1990s? Anti-French sentiment hasn't been that much of a thing lately.

This. If Kenney were to pull a stunt like this (I doubt it), it would be about pipelines or carbon taxes, not language.

I think Kenney still has federal ambitions and while yes with way things are going in Alberta, chances of him every becoming PM are pretty close to zero, but he knows something like this would end that.  Also he says Legault as an ally since despite differences, both want Ottawa to stay out of provincial affairs.

More likely you get a municipality somewhere doing this.  In addition unlike 90s, we have a much larger immigration population so an English only policy would come across as not just anti-French, but anti-immigrant too thus why less likely. 



Municipalities don't have a Constitution that's part of the federal Constitution.

True, but could make municipal bylaw as that is what Sault Ste. Marie did in 1990.  But at same time I think backlash to that would be much stronger as many would see it as anti-immigrant too.

It was thinkfulyl stuck down by courts and a non far right mayor apologized in 2010 for that disgusting piece of bigotry.

Absolutely and if done it would probably be somewhere in rural Alberta.  The same place where you lots of anti-lockdown, anti-mask types and many who think individuals should be able to own assault weapons and thought Trump was a good president.  While a small portion of Canada, such communities do exist although very much a minority.

Well, we have a winner for pushback! Notorious anti-Quebec MP and former incompetent Justice minister Jody Wilson-Raybould.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #880 on: May 26, 2021, 10:44:21 PM »

Conservative plan to rally up the base:

Quote
The Conservative party is planning “groundbreaking” strategies to hyper-target its campaign messaging directly to Canadian voters, the Star has learned.

A fundraising document obtained by the Star shows the Conservatives want to build an ambitious “voter-facing” communications campaign to fight “fire with fire” against progressive third-party groups.

The document laid out “keys to victory” in the upcoming election that include “one of the most ambitious voter-facing communications plans ever executed by a Canadian political party.”

“The Liberals will do and say anything to stop Erin O’Toole from winning. And they’re supported by far-left allies who are already running negative ads against Erin O’Toole,” reads the document, which was recently sent to party supporters.

“We need to fight fire with fire — in the news media, over the airwaves, online and in mailboxes.”

https://www.thestar.com/politics/federal/2021/05/26/conservatives-plan-groundbreaking-direct-to-voter-messaging-in-next-federal-election-campaign.html
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« Reply #881 on: May 27, 2021, 07:39:56 AM »

Municipal elections in Quebec are in November. There are going to be new faces in major cities because the incumbent is retiring in Quebec City, Laval, Gatineau and Longueuil. Montreal will have a familiar face but will it keep Valérie Plante or see the return of Denis Coderre.

A Léger poll of 500 people gives 46% of decided voters for Coderre, 34% for Plante and 19% for other candidates. Plante does best with younger voters. Coderre leads among non francophone voters 51% to 23%. Francophones are split, 44% Plante 42% Coderre.

44% are satisfied with the work of Plante, 50% not satisfied. 60% want a change of mayor while 24% would keep the mayor. Coderre is preferred on issues like economic recovery of the city, roads, municipal taxes, municipal services, and security. Plante is prefered for making arts accessible, public transit, green spaces and bike paths. 

Why is Plante so unpopular?
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« Reply #882 on: May 27, 2021, 07:45:09 AM »

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.
And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP Wink

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #883 on: May 27, 2021, 08:54:53 AM »

Always good when a long range forecast like that comes off Smiley
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #884 on: May 27, 2021, 10:59:47 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2021, 11:05:49 AM by King of Kensington »

In Davenport, the NDP seems poised to pick Alejandra Bravo, who is a good candidate for them. She is with the Broadbent Institute and ran three times for city council in Toronto's former ward 17 (northern half of Davenport, the more difficult part of the riding for the NDP).  Speaks Portuguese and French as well as her native Spanish.  

https://www.bravodavenport.ca/

If she wins, she'll likely be Toronto's only non-Liberal MP.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #885 on: May 27, 2021, 01:15:05 PM »

BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Quebec have all released re-opening plans.  Wondering what thoughts are on those.  BC seems pretty generous.  Alberta a bit slower on phase 1, but moves to lift all restrictions by July 1st while BC not until Labour Day.  Ontario is probably most cautious, but not surprising as it seems people there are just in general more risk averse. 

My thinking is governments are in a tough spot here.  Covid fatigue is getting strong and so cannot stay in lockdown indefinitely, but at same time as we've seen multiple times, if we re-open too soon, it just comes roaring back.  And polls do seem to suggest those wanting more restrictions and go slow are greater than those who want quicker re-opening and fewer restrictions.  At same time, from my observations, it seems a lot are ignoring rules but obviously big age gap with people in 20s I find least likely to follow while seniors most careful (makes sense, former has very low risk of dying, latter much higher although most in latter are vaccinated while many in former are not). 

If all goes well, should help the premiers and those who went too slow will face pressure to speed up.  But if a fourth wave comes, you will see backlash and probably fatal for Kenney, Ford, and Pallister (all three are on thin ice now, but fourth wave probably finishes them off), while for Horgan puts him in negative territory but can still recover.  Early on, it was easy to unite people, but as this drags on, I think you are seeing more divisions between those who want life to go back to normal and those who want to keep restrictions until place until safe.
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« Reply #886 on: May 27, 2021, 09:06:28 PM »

In Davenport, the NDP seems poised to pick Alejandra Bravo, who is a good candidate for them. She is with the Broadbent Institute and ran three times for city council in Toronto's former ward 17 (northern half of Davenport, the more difficult part of the riding for the NDP).  Speaks Portuguese and French as well as her native Spanish.  

https://www.bravodavenport.ca/

If she wins, she'll likely be Toronto's only non-Liberal MP.


Probably the likeliest Toronto win for the NDP, but she still has an uphill battle.

It will be interesting to watch nonetheless, because if the CPC stays as weak as they are now, I think voters in places like Davenport will feel less obligated to vote Liberal.
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Njall
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« Reply #887 on: May 28, 2021, 12:07:13 AM »

I’ll just leave this here...

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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #888 on: May 28, 2021, 09:49:02 AM »

How many respondents are taking the p***, I wonder.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #889 on: May 28, 2021, 03:28:38 PM »

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.
And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP Wink

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.



Not a bad prediction.  I think for future PMs, Chrystia Freeland is smartest bet.  As for next Tory leader who becomes PM, that is a tough one is no one out there who I think is obvious.  In fact I believe next Tory PM (if they ever win again) is probably someone few of us have ever heard of.  After all in 1996, how many people knew who Stephen Harper was?  Most Liberal PMs tend to be big names with long histories in party while Tories usually tend to be people who aren't as big a name. 
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« Reply #890 on: May 30, 2021, 01:07:27 PM »

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.
And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP Wink

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.



Not a bad prediction.  I think for future PMs, Chrystia Freeland is smartest bet.  As for next Tory leader who becomes PM, that is a tough one is no one out there who I think is obvious.  In fact I believe next Tory PM (if they ever win again) is probably someone few of us have ever heard of.  After all in 1996, how many people knew who Stephen Harper was?  Most Liberal PMs tend to be big names with long histories in party while Tories usually tend to be people who aren't as big a name. 

I think a Mulroney-esque figure is most likely to be the next Tory PM, someone with CPC connections but from the private sector. Either that, or some obscure rando who works their way up the grease pole.

The most likely Harper-era Conservative to ever become Prime Minister (other than O'Toole due to statistical probability) I think is Rona Ambrose, if she brushes up on her French. But it seems like she has a pretty sweet gig in the private sector, so it's entirely likely that she's done with politics for good.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #891 on: May 30, 2021, 04:27:51 PM »

I’ll just leave this here...



Like his being nude on camera, who, outside of prudes cares? It's not like anyone outside of Parliament saw this.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #892 on: May 30, 2021, 06:46:09 PM »

Will Amos' first embarrassment one could say was an embarrassing mistake, but twice in such a short period seems fishy.  Besides why would someone urinate in a cup and specifically in a zoom meeting.  That being said probably best for him to step aside from his role as don't know if just two bad mistakes together or something else.

As for next Tory PM, I think if O'Toole loses as likely, Lewis is probably favourite as you win leadership by pandering to base not median voter and often types who win leadership races are types least electable in a general election.  Poilievre if he runs another possible.  He is a good pit bull and good at taking down other side, but I think his nastiness would be a turn off especially to female voters.  Never mind on economic policy he is very much a Thatcherite and not sure there is much appetite for that type of policy right now.  Peter MacKay probably runs again, but only way I see him winning nomination is if he signs up a lot of new members.  I think his chances are better if Liberals become very unpopular as more opportunity to sign up people outside base.  Most outside base may have some things they disagree with Trudeau on, but aren't absolutely determined to see him defeated.  Jason Kenney may run and even if he loses in Alberta, he may still go although I think his position in Alberta has made him damaged goods.  Obviously he has little appeal to moderates while base is angry he didn't take approach like DeSantis or Abbott of Texas and just re-open fully irrespective of cases. 

I also think long term if Tories keep on electing crazy leaders, not totally impossible federal parties start to mirror BC where Liberals become more a pro free enterprise but socially liberal party and NDP becomes a broad based progressive one so progressive liberals go over to NDP, but moderate Tories go over to Liberals.  But that would take at least a decade or more to happen.  If you are an NDP member this would be good as could win sometimes while if a pro free market type also good as your side while under a different label would win more often than they do now.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #893 on: May 31, 2021, 05:53:03 AM »

Will Amos' first embarrassment one could say was an embarrassing mistake, but twice in such a short period seems fishy.  Besides why would someone urinate in a cup and specifically in a zoom meeting.  That being said probably best for him to step aside from his role as don't know if just two bad mistakes together or something else.

Inevitably, there is now speculation about their physical/mental health.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #894 on: May 31, 2021, 07:44:39 AM »

I had earlier suggested Liberals being in power past 2030 and I actually think its more likely than many think for simple reason for Tories it is now majority or bust.  There is no way the NDP will in a minority ever prop up Tories even if they win more seats than Liberals.  They are well aware what has happened to similar parties like SPD in Germany, Dutch Labour, Irish Labour, and PASOK in Greece who all propped up right of centre governments and each party took a big hit after.  They even now have a term for that, called PASOK'd and NDP knows if they propped up Tories it would obliterate party.   In past we were much less polarized so a left wing party supporting a right wing as long as they made concessions was more acceptable than today.

So the issue becomes how do Tories win a majority.  Tories winning most seats is likely to happen before 2030, but winning majority becomes a real challenge.  Quebec outside of their strongholds in the Chaudiere-Appalaches and Quebec City region rarely elects many Tory MPs.  I guess if they have a native son like say Gerald Detell, maybe they breakthrough like Brian Mulroney did, but I doubt their Prairie base would ever tolerate a Quebec leader unless it was a crazy one like Maxime Bernier who wouldn't do well in Quebec.  So with Quebec, out of the picture, that means 2/3 of seats in rest of Canada and that is extremely difficult to do.  Not impossible, but only been done three times in last century (1958, 1984, and 2011) and first two involved big breakthroughs in Quebec.  1917 and 2011 only times Tories got a majority totally sidestepping Quebec.  1917 was over conscription crisis where Quebec and rest of Canada stood on opposite ends, but don't see anything on horizon likely to create similar divide. 

Yes I guess perhaps, if Tories win a plurality and NDP decides to prop up Liberals, public swings en masse next time to Tories to get change, but point being Tories face basically an insurmountable hill to win a majority much like Labour in UK.  Difference is Labour in UK at least is preferred by most smaller parties over Tories so they can form government by just reducing Tories to a plurality, total opposite of Canada.
And when the 2015 campaign started, you would have been laughed out of the room for predicting a Liberal majority.

I dunno, I predicted a Trudeau victory as far back as 2007, before he even was an MP Wink

No. The next Liberal PM will be Justin Trudeau.

But I was laughed at at the time.



Not a bad prediction.  I think for future PMs, Chrystia Freeland is smartest bet.  As for next Tory leader who becomes PM, that is a tough one is no one out there who I think is obvious.  In fact I believe next Tory PM (if they ever win again) is probably someone few of us have ever heard of.  After all in 1996, how many people knew who Stephen Harper was?  Most Liberal PMs tend to be big names with long histories in party while Tories usually tend to be people who aren't as big a name. 

I agree, Freeland is the most likely next Liberal PM, and no one stands out for the Conservatives except Rona, but she doesn't seem to want to have the job. Most Tories are not palatable to the electorate, and the ones who are could never win a leadership race.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #895 on: May 31, 2021, 12:19:35 PM »

I don't see Liberals moving rightward for a very long time, I am more thinking in a decade if Tories implode, but not sure that will happen.  As for next Tory PM, that is a big problem as Harper never really groomed a successor and despite his success left party in a terrible mess that they are a long ways from coming out of.  He could have tried to move party closer to centre and marginalize base and if successful that would establish party more moderate, but instead played triangulation.  Avoided going too far right on big issues, but pandered to base on small issues thus keeping them in tent and feeling like they could get their way.  And most leaders don't have skill like he did to triangulate thus not a long term success strategy. 

Also I think social media has been a killer for Tories.  More go into echo chambers so a lot in base today are more right wing than they were a decade ago.  In US, they have a long history of radical politics so its worked out okay to some degree.  In Europe they use PR so you have separate parties for centre-right and further right and a lot of the further right have been able to appeal to blue collar types who are populist but don't care for traditional establishment conservatives thus why it is left in trouble there and right gaining.  If Canada had PR, I imagine PPC would be closer to 10% maybe even higher and they would take all the more ideological right wing types while Tories would be moderate and although probably sub 30, the combined right would be higher than it is now.

I actually think if Notley beats Kenney in 2023 straight up (no split on right) that might send a strong signal party has to moderate since if cannot win in most conservative (or probably 2nd now, Saskatchewan probably takes that title), then cannot win nationally like that.  Now if Kenney loses due to split on right, then probably emboldens them to move further right.  And same in Ontario in sense that if New Blue Party gets enough votes in enough seats to deny Ford a majority, that could push party further right. 
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #896 on: May 31, 2021, 12:51:01 PM »

Notice a lot on right trying to centre their argument around freedom, but I am not sure that is a wise strategy going forward for Tories.  Off course who doesn't want more freedom.  Problem is when you get into the details, what a lot are pushing for is libertarianism and many see that as just I want to be selfish and don't care about greater good.  Reason I think this fails is I don't think most Canadians feel we have too little freedom as by and large we are a fairly free country and while we may have some restrictions that some may find silly or overbearing, on balance its not like government plays too big a role in our lives.

Some examples are:

- End lockdowns - Most don't like lockdowns but see them as necessary to bring pandemic under control

- Opposition to gun control - After seeing what a disaster 2nd amendment is in US, most don't associate ability to own firearms with freedom and accept restrictions on lethal weapons including banning some not useful for hunting as perfectly legitimate.

- Opposition to any taxes - No one likes paying taxes, but most of us like the services they provide and realize without taxes we wouldn't have those.  Off course some may say they are too high and certainly most rightly get upset when they see it being wasted

- Obsession on free speech - Most Canadians don't feel free speech is threatened and while some may not support C-10, a lot see right going on about free speech really about promoting right to hate speech which most oppose.  Yes there is always risk it gets abused and used to shut down unpopular opinions that are controversial but not hateful, but so far that has not happened and most aren't too worried about it.

Reality is I think those on right going on about freedom is a losing proposition as most don't feel we have too little freedom and few even if they dislike Trudeau feel he is trying to repress freedom or become more authoritarian.  People generally vote for politicians who will do things to improve people's lives so talk on freedom only resonates if people few we have too little.  In US works more as you have a lot more who believe in dark web conspiracy theories never mind US has a strong libertarian current which Canada lacks.  I don't think the libertarian version of freedom has ever had much traction in Canada while in US a sizeable minority of Americans are libertarians.  I think concerns of freedom are more abroad in places like China or Russia and many others which do actually repress freedom and how Canada approaches our relationship with those countries. 

Thoughts here?
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #897 on: May 31, 2021, 02:03:13 PM »

Newfoundland brought down its budget https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/nl-budget-2021-main-1.6046843 and surprisingly few spending cuts and looks like most of the changes were the easiest and least controversial.  Tax hikes only on those making over 135K and for those making over a million, will be highest in country (how many in Newfoundland anyways make that much?  I presume most making that income live in BC, AB, ON, or QC) so on one hand good news that won't drag down Trudeau, but much like with Alberta, a lot will depend on strong oil rebound.  I do think though while taxing rich is popular, being highest in country is just a good way to see more move to other provinces.  Ontario and BC maybe could get away with it, but most studies I've seen show raising taxes on rich at provincial level largely ineffective.  Federal more effective as harder to move abroad than to another province.  Also raised tobacco taxes and sugary drinks while spending will not go down but some board consolidation.  Will be interesting if this works as Newfoundland in worst shape of provinces so if any province needs austerity its Newfoundland.  So if they can recover without big cuts, not reason federal government or other provinces who are in much better shape need to.  Tax hikes are drop in the buckets and it most will make only a very small dent.  Sale of Nalcor and NL Liquor being studied but not done now so see what happens there.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #898 on: May 31, 2021, 04:30:54 PM »

No one "needs austerity"
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #899 on: May 31, 2021, 05:42:32 PM »


If Newfoundland can get a federal bail out then they won't, but if not I am afraid so.  Bond holders no longer want to lend to them and since it is a province without its own currency, they don't have option of printing money like federal government can.  Off course fact it was pretty light on austerity and nothing too jaw dropping is probably good news for Trudeau for two reasons:

1.  A harsh austerity budget could have put some Newfoundland seats in jeopardy, that is avoided

2.  O'Toole could have pointed to that and said re-electing Trudeau will mean the same nationally (won't actually as federal government a long ways from insolvency but still average voter doesn't know this) and only voting Tory can prevent Canada from reaching that whereas now O'Toole won't have that card.
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