Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Toronto Centre would ordinarily be the perfect fit for him, but alas he missed his window on that. And it might be a tough slog this time running against the Green Party leader. Any downtown Toronto seat would be ideal except Parkdale, Danforth and Davenport.

[beesley]

In theory Humber River-Black Creek could be a good fit for Carney electorally, but he'd be an awful fit demographically, not that that would stop them.

[RogueBeaver]

Will Amos took transparency extremely literally today.

[King of Kensington]

From Reg Whitaker, a distinguished Canadian political scientist:

Absent the Turners and Martins who dominated economic policy in previous Liberal governments, the star turn of Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of both Canada and England, served to show just how far off-centre the Liberals have now moved. Instead of the austerity and inflation-fighting mania of earlier bank governors, Carney urges a capitalism more concerned about reducing inequality and achieving a greener economy.

It is easy to be cynical about Liberal promises. No doubt a number of these aspirations will never see the light of day, and others may be severely compromised when enacted.

But the NDP are mistaken to claim unbroken continuity from a past when the Liberals campaigned from the left and governed from the right.

The old "Government Party" -- the classic big-tent, middle-of-the road brokerage party that could shift as easily to the right as to the left in response to changing wind direction -- is dead and buried.

Seismic shifts in society, economy and in political marketing and communication have rendered brokerage politics all but obsolete.

Big data, micro-targeting and social media have sharpened the boundaries between groups of voters and are polarizing electorates along increasingly tribal lines which are pulling away from each other.

Tribalization is not as advanced in Canada as it is in the U.S., but it has pulled the Conservative party much further to the right, consolidating their base of about a third of Canadians, concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with their petro-state economies and ideology to match.

The other two-thirds are split between Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters who have a great deal in common in political values and policy preferences (broadly on the moderate centre-left) but are divided regionally on partisan lines -- which leaves open the possibility of the right-wing minority imposing itself on the country over a fragmented majority.

Practically, Liberals have no hope of breaking into the solid Tory base, but must consolidate the centre-left to avert a Tory win.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/liberals-emerge-convention-ready-govern-left

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

From Reg Whitaker, a distinguished Canadian political scientist:

Absent the Turners and Martins who dominated economic policy in previous Liberal governments, the star turn of Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of both Canada and England, served to show just how far off-centre the Liberals have now moved. Instead of the austerity and inflation-fighting mania of earlier bank governors, Carney urges a capitalism more concerned about reducing inequality and achieving a greener economy.

It is easy to be cynical about Liberal promises. No doubt a number of these aspirations will never see the light of day, and others may be severely compromised when enacted.

But the NDP are mistaken to claim unbroken continuity from a past when the Liberals campaigned from the left and governed from the right.

The old "Government Party" -- the classic big-tent, middle-of-the road brokerage party that could shift as easily to the right as to the left in response to changing wind direction -- is dead and buried.

Seismic shifts in society, economy and in political marketing and communication have rendered brokerage politics all but obsolete.

Big data, micro-targeting and social media have sharpened the boundaries between groups of voters and are polarizing electorates along increasingly tribal lines which are pulling away from each other.

Tribalization is not as advanced in Canada as it is in the U.S., but it has pulled the Conservative party much further to the right, consolidating their base of about a third of Canadians, concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with their petro-state economies and ideology to match.

The other two-thirds are split between Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters who have a great deal in common in political values and policy preferences (broadly on the moderate centre-left) but are divided regionally on partisan lines -- which leaves open the possibility of the right-wing minority imposing itself on the country over a fragmented majority.

Practically, Liberals have no hope of breaking into the solid Tory base, but must consolidate the centre-left to avert a Tory win.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/liberals-emerge-convention-ready-govern-left

I broadly agree with this, especially the death of brokerage politics (which I would argue died when the Reform Party destroyed the PC coalition) but I think there's still enough of a centrist vote that the Liberals would be ill-advised to go full NDP. Looking at elections like 2018 Ontario, where the votes lost by Liberals split pretty evenly between the PCs and NDP, I think there are broadly enough red-blue switchers to affect elections. The disconnect is that there is no party between the Tories and Grits and such a party probably couldn't exist, because voters who swing between the two parties in my experience are apolitical, "peace order and good government" type voters that make their choice during the election period rather than having a coherent ideology that they fall into. The party base and establishment of both the LPC and CPC are polarizing though, that much is certain, and it will be interesting to see how things move forward in the future. Personally I'm still a partisan Liberal who is much more of a centrist than centre-left, and I know a fair few people in my social circle who fall into that, but I know we are a small minority these days.

Anecdotally, I think the remainder of centrist/centre-right Liberals and centrist/centre-left Tories fall where they do for cultural reasons and simply can't see themselves in the other party even if they agree with them on many issues. I'm not sure how common this is among Tories, but there's still a small minority of loyal Liberals who are a lot more Martinite in their views on economics, but dislike the baggage that comes with the Conservative Party (social conservatism, climate, etc)

[DabbingSanta]

338Canada has a new "election simulator" where you can input the share of the vote you expect each party will get in the next election and it will tell you the updated seat projections.  Works great!

The only downside with 338Canada is that they don't appear to take into account independent candidates or people who were ejected from their caucuses.  Ontario MPP Belinda Karahalios was kicked out last year for her opposition to Ford's COVID restrictions, and has now formed her own political party.  She plans to run in 2022, and while I expect she will lose, I would not be surprised if she got 20-25% of the vote in her riding, dividing the right wing vote.

Here are my current guesses regarding vote share and number of seats based on the new simulator.

Ontario's 43rd election:  PC minority government
PC: 35% popular vote, 60 seats
Liberal: 28% popular vote, 36 seats
NDP: 23% popular vote, 28 seats
Green: 6% popular vote, 1 seat
Other parties: 8% popular vote

Canada's 44th election:  PC minority government
PC: 35% popular vote, 160 seats
Liberal: 33% popular vote, 111 seats
Bloc: 8% popular vote, 40 seats
NDP: 15% popular vote, 22 seats
Green: 6% popular vote, 4 seats
Other parties: 3% popular vote

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

It feels like the PC leadership is worried about potentially having a caucus revolt on their hands. There's a significant chunk of the PC base that's seemingly enraged with Ford over all of the new restrictions: formerly big Ford supporters have even taken to calling him a "communist" over them. Not to mention, the PCs aren't exactly working with a super-strong majority to begin with: they require 63 seats to hold down their majority, but they only have 71, so it'd only take 9 of their MPPs to cross the aisle & either sit as independents or even just to threaten their support for a VoNC, which the NDP & Liberals would likely be more than happy with. Their polling numbers have also started to tank over the last week or so, too, if the movement seen in the last few polls is anything to go by.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

It feels like the PC leadership is worried about potentially having a caucus revolt on their hands. There's a significant chunk of the PC base that's seemingly enraged with Ford over all of the new restrictions: formerly big Ford supporters have even taken to calling him a "communist" over them. Not to mention, the PCs aren't exactly working with a super-strong majority to begin with: they require 63 seats to hold down their majority, but they only have 71, so it'd only take 9 of their MPPs to cross the aisle & either sit as independents or even just to threaten their support for a VoNC, which the NDP & Liberals would likely be more than happy with. Their polling numbers have also started to tank over the last week or so, too, if the movement seen in the last few polls is anything to go by.

Thanks for a detailed response.

[DabbingSanta]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

It feels like the PC leadership is worried about potentially having a caucus revolt on their hands. There's a significant chunk of the PC base that's seemingly enraged with Ford over all of the new restrictions: formerly big Ford supporters have even taken to calling him a "communist" over them. Not to mention, the PCs aren't exactly working with a super-strong majority to begin with: they require 63 seats to hold down their majority, but they only have 71, so it'd only take 9 of their MPPs to cross the aisle & either sit as independents or even just to threaten their support for a VoNC, which the NDP & Liberals would likely be more than happy with. Their polling numbers have also started to tank over the last week or so, too, if the movement seen in the last few polls is anything to go by.

We are the most locked down state level entity in North America.  A huge percent of his base, myself included, feel betrayed by his actions and mismanagement of this entire crisis, and the whole time his government has treated it like some sick reality TV show, threatening us like a bunch of children every time cases go up.  He is a sick, fascist bastard who deserves everything coming to him.  I'm glad the media and people are now speaking out.  Sadly, it took a very grave attempt at violation our rights — allowing police to stop and question people without probable cause — and the police subsequently refusing this demand and standing up for us, for everyone to wake up.

This has been going on for a while now.  The people have spoken.

I think you're toast this time, Dougie.  Good riddance.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah, a libertarian who *isn't* a total shill for populist-right lite fascism. Genuinely nice to see

[2952-0-0]

The reason why Doug Ford's last decree was received so terribly was because it was so obviously a show. Giving police emergency stop and search powers served no purpose in actually reducing transmission, but was just a theatre to show he's boss. Meanwhile, real steps like mandating paid sick days and prioritizing vaccines to essential workers have been ignored.

Also, I'm not sure the Washington Post is that qualified to criticize Doug Ford, given the number of outbreaks at workplaces owned by its owner.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Three recent Ontario polls: EKOS has the PCs' lead narrowing, while Innovative and Abacus show a statistical tie. What's more, if the opposition coalesces around one of the parties a bit more, these statistical ties could easily put the Tories a good 4-5 points behind.

I think the third wave was Ontarians' last straw with Ford. He was unbelievably popular during the first wave, and people still broadly trusted him during the second, but the third wave has been so mismanaged and out of control that the pandemic goodwill he built up is slipping.

It's a shame that the opposition parties in Ontario are so incompetent, because I still think the PCs have a major advantage in any campaign. But honestly, Ford has been discrediting his own government from the very start, his time could well be up in 2022.

[King of Kensington]

This childcare announcement will likely bury the NDP in the next election.  "We thought of it first!" doesn't usually win you votes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/federal-budget-freeland-tasker-1.5991137

[Hatman 🍁]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

[beesley]

Rediscovered this gem:

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

[Хahar 🤔]

From Reg Whitaker, a distinguished Canadian political scientist:

Absent the Turners and Martins who dominated economic policy in previous Liberal governments, the star turn of Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of both Canada and England, served to show just how far off-centre the Liberals have now moved. Instead of the austerity and inflation-fighting mania of earlier bank governors, Carney urges a capitalism more concerned about reducing inequality and achieving a greener economy.

It is easy to be cynical about Liberal promises. No doubt a number of these aspirations will never see the light of day, and others may be severely compromised when enacted.

But the NDP are mistaken to claim unbroken continuity from a past when the Liberals campaigned from the left and governed from the right.

The old "Government Party" -- the classic big-tent, middle-of-the road brokerage party that could shift as easily to the right as to the left in response to changing wind direction -- is dead and buried.

Seismic shifts in society, economy and in political marketing and communication have rendered brokerage politics all but obsolete.

Big data, micro-targeting and social media have sharpened the boundaries between groups of voters and are polarizing electorates along increasingly tribal lines which are pulling away from each other.

Tribalization is not as advanced in Canada as it is in the U.S., but it has pulled the Conservative party much further to the right, consolidating their base of about a third of Canadians, concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with their petro-state economies and ideology to match.

The other two-thirds are split between Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters who have a great deal in common in political values and policy preferences (broadly on the moderate centre-left) but are divided regionally on partisan lines -- which leaves open the possibility of the right-wing minority imposing itself on the country over a fragmented majority.

Practically, Liberals have no hope of breaking into the solid Tory base, but must consolidate the centre-left to avert a Tory win.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/liberals-emerge-convention-ready-govern-left

The identification of the Bloc as having similar "political values" to the Liberals and NDP is striking, since their return to relevance at the last election did not seem like it was based on any political values that the Liberals and NDP share. I'm curious now to what extent this thinking that the Bloc is really a party of the left like the others is common among the Canadian political class; obviously it was widespread in 2009, but that was 2009.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

Del Duca is a poor fit but so is Horwath. I have no idea how she's still leader after missing the open net twice and I don't see how she somehow manages it this time. The Liberals could nominate a cardboard box with a smiley face drawn in sharpie and they'd still be the more credible opposition.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

Del Duca is a poor fit but so is Horwath. I have no idea how she's still leader after missing the open net twice and I don't see how she somehow manages it this time. The Liberals could nominate a cardboard box with a smiley face drawn in sharpie and they'd still be the more credible opposition.

This is true, I think the ONDP's problem is that they don't really have a viable replacement for Horwath. Nobody in the ONDP caucus really stands out as someone who could outperform Horwath, so they're stuck with her.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

From Reg Whitaker, a distinguished Canadian political scientist:

Absent the Turners and Martins who dominated economic policy in previous Liberal governments, the star turn of Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of both Canada and England, served to show just how far off-centre the Liberals have now moved. Instead of the austerity and inflation-fighting mania of earlier bank governors, Carney urges a capitalism more concerned about reducing inequality and achieving a greener economy.

It is easy to be cynical about Liberal promises. No doubt a number of these aspirations will never see the light of day, and others may be severely compromised when enacted.

But the NDP are mistaken to claim unbroken continuity from a past when the Liberals campaigned from the left and governed from the right.

The old "Government Party" -- the classic big-tent, middle-of-the road brokerage party that could shift as easily to the right as to the left in response to changing wind direction -- is dead and buried.

Seismic shifts in society, economy and in political marketing and communication have rendered brokerage politics all but obsolete.

Big data, micro-targeting and social media have sharpened the boundaries between groups of voters and are polarizing electorates along increasingly tribal lines which are pulling away from each other.

Tribalization is not as advanced in Canada as it is in the U.S., but it has pulled the Conservative party much further to the right, consolidating their base of about a third of Canadians, concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with their petro-state economies and ideology to match.

The other two-thirds are split between Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters who have a great deal in common in political values and policy preferences (broadly on the moderate centre-left) but are divided regionally on partisan lines -- which leaves open the possibility of the right-wing minority imposing itself on the country over a fragmented majority.

Practically, Liberals have no hope of breaking into the solid Tory base, but must consolidate the centre-left to avert a Tory win.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/liberals-emerge-convention-ready-govern-left

The identification of the Bloc as having similar "political values" to the Liberals and NDP is striking, since their return to relevance at the last election did not seem like it was based on any political values that the Liberals and NDP share. I'm curious now to what extent this thinking that the Bloc is really a party of the left like the others is common among the Canadian political class; obviously it was widespread in 2009, but that was 2009.

They still lie somewhere on the Liberal-NDP continuum of progressive politics, even though their more nationalistic and sometimes xenophobic rhetoric takes centre stage in English Canada. They're an environmentalist party, in fact a lot of their rhetoric against the Liberals in 2019 was on the issue of pipelines and fossil fuel subsidies. They're socially liberal on moral issues like abortion and LGBT rights, they support more funding for social housing, they're generally pro-union, and so on. They're a bit ideosyncratic on other issues and their main priority is giving Quebec what it wants, of course, but their ideology is broadly one I would describe as left of centre.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1385396185159045128

[CumbrianLefty]

"fathered of her children"?

[RogueBeaver]

"fathered of her children"?

Two of her kids. Also said Vance boasted he had his former subordinate Sajjan "under control."

[Hatman 🍁]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

Winning back the Ford Liberals is one thing, but the Liberals need to hold their coalition together, which include promiscuous progressives. They will vote for a more left leaning Liberal Party, but will they vote for a centre-right Liberal Party? Probably not. Ford Liberals are typical Liberal voters. They don't mind voting for a left leaning Liberal Party (they voted for Wynne in 2014, and Trudeau twice) they just won't vote NDP. They know the Liberals will keep their taxes down (even if it means huge budget deficits due to increased spending), and that's what matters most to those people.