Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DC Al Fine]

Miles made a comment about crashing Western premiers. I took a look at the Labour Force Survey, and AB/SK/MB are somecof the hardest hit provinces for job losses. For comparison, my region is more or less back to pre-pandemic employment numbers. So the Western premiers, in addition to their COVID issues are also dealing with poor economies.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/perrybellegarde/status/1335962442451574787

[DC Al Fine]

Anyone else find it funny that the NDP called Freeland's economic update an "austerity budget"? If that's austerity, I don't want to see what the NDP considers too spendy

[TopShelfGoal]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

[TopShelfGoal]

This really shows how difficult the path to victory is for the CPC, even if O'Toole is a much more capable leader than his predecessor.  The Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa suburbs are increasingly out of reach, and O'Toole is going to have to really do spectacularly well outside the "big six" (1 million+) metros or really find a way to break into ethnocultural and immigrant communities.

To O'Toole's credit, he's been trying out new ways to break or neutralize the Liberal 'red wall'. His focus on organized labour combined with culture war stuff, while fully ingenuine, could help make gains among blue collar voters. Many of these folks are politically homeless because the NDP's organizational capacity ain't what it used to be, and like in the US and the UK, this leaves room for the right wing to speak to their cultural sensibilities.

Another group O'Toole has changed the CPC's tune on is Quebecers. They're leaning heavily into Quebec nationalism now, and considering there are a lot of politically promiscuous working-class small-town Quebecers who fit both of these profiles, O'Toole's game might be to start winning more than a dozen seats in Quebec.

Do I think this will work? Maybe not immediately, I expect a snap election sometime in 2021 and that's not enough time to make relevant inroads in two communities that have historically hated your guts. But I must admit that as a Liberal, O'Toole worries me a bit more than Scheer. Scheer was just a party hack who only knew how to speak to the most hardcore Harper fans, didn't really do much for broadening the Conservative coalition. O'Toole is throwing things at the wall hoping they stick, but that's not necessarily a bad strategy for an opposition party that's basically locked out from the traditional way of winning.

Trying to get support of rural small town Quebec is not a a winning strategy for the Conservatives. The gap between where these voters are ideologically and where the Conservatives are as a caucus and a party is way too large to be reconciled anytime soon. Even if they managed to win a few seats in these areas they almost certainly won't have an easy time holding them considering so much of their policy agenda is going to be diametrically opposed to the voters allegiances in these seats. Additionally these voters are extremely fickle and hard to count on as a base of your support- they deserted the Bloc and the NDP in back to back election cycles even when those parties were essentially representing their ideology in the parliament. They would be even more likelier to flip on the CPC (even if CPC managed to get their votes in one election cycle) as there is clearly ideological tension between these voters and the party,

The Harper/Kenney strategy of winning the "ethnic/immigrant" vote and using that to win seats in suburban Toronto and suburban Vancouver is still the path of least resistance for the CPC. It is also a more stable coalition for the CPC as they are not going to be on the offside with every single one of their key issues (tax cuts etc) with these voters as they would be with more ideologically left leaning small town Quebec. I don't know why people are counting the Conservatives out from contention for the ethnic vote consider Harper won it in 2011 and so did the Ford brothers. Harper laid out the blueprint of how the CPC can win, they'd be wise trying to replicate that strategy rather than galaxy brain ideas.

In US election terms winning back the ethnic/immigrant vote in the GTA is CPC version of Democrats flipping WI/MI/PA whereas trying to expand in Quebec while not doing better in the GTA is like the Democrat ideas about flipping Texas while losing WI/MI/PA.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Harper/Kenney strategy of winning the "ethnic/immigrant" vote and using that to win seats in suburban Toronto and suburban Vancouver is still the path of least resistance for the CPC. It is also a more stable coalition for the CPC as they are not going to be on the offside with every single one of their key issues (tax cuts etc) with these voters as they would be with more ideologically left leaning small town Quebec. I don't know why people are counting the Conservatives out from contention for the ethnic vote consider Harper won it in 2011 and so did the Ford brothers. Harper laid out the blueprint of how the CPC can win, they'd be wise trying to replicate that strategy rather than galaxy brain ideas.

The Harper immigrant strategy/success was real, but greatly exaggerated. Yes it's true that Harper won the immigrant vote. When people think immigrant they think Chinese and Indian, but Europeans who moved in the 1950s are immigrants too. When you look at the type of immigrants that are growing in Canada's population, Harper didn't necessarily do too well. Conservatives got 31% of the visible minority vote in 2011, with the NDP getting 38% and Liberals 23%. Of course visible minority =/= immigrant, but most visible minorities in Canada (this doesn't include indigenous people of course) are immigrants, and most growing immigrant communities are visible minorities. In this sense, non-white immigrants didn't carry Harper to victory, so much as they followed a national trend. On a similar note, recent immigrants in 2011 voted for the NDP. This highlights a key difference--longtime, disproportionately white immigrants were the group that carried Harper to victory in 2011. More recent, disproportionately nonwhite immigrants stayed with the centre-left, only this time many of them voted NDP instead of the traditional Liberals (as with most other centre-left groups in 2011). The link to the poll below:

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/poll-how-religion-and-ethnicity-shaped-canadas-2011-election

With Ford in 2018, once again, immigrant groups did not necessarily carry the PCs as much as they followed the trend. Some groups like Chinese-Canadians swung heavily to the PCs, as they have federally as well. But the South Asian and Black communities, who tend to have similar voting patterns and are a very large bloc in the GTA when combined, still leaned left. If you look at poll-by-poll breakdowns in the GTA, the Liberals and NDP did better in parts of the GTA that are disproportionately black and south asian. It should be no surprise then that three of the NDP's four seats in the 905 were in Brampton. However, what skews people's perception is that many suburban and diverse ridings were split closely. Consider Scarborough Centre, where the PCs got 38% of the vote, but the NDP and Liberals split the centre-left 33-22. Or Brampton West, one of the two PC seats in Brampton, which broke down 39-38-18 PC-NDP-OLP. Going back to the 2011 federal election makes this even clearer. The Conservatives carried Bramalea-Gore-Malton, which has one of the highest immigrant populations in Canada. Upon further inspection, the CPC candidate only got 34% of the vote, and the NDP and Liberals split 34-29. I may be cherrypicking here, but there are just a lot of examples, in both 2011 and 2018, where the Conservative sweep of immigrant-heavy ridings were mainly a byproduct of the centre-left splitting votes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

[DC Al Fine]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

[2952-0-0]

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

Goldman Sachs projects that Canada will have a later start than the US and UK, but is on track to have the highest level of vaccinations of the major first-world economies by May 2021.

https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/1332247230259060736

O'Toole will have more pressing things to worry about. The wingnuts in his party are running riot in a way they didn't, even under Scheer.

[King of Kensington]

The Harper/Kenney strategy of winning the "ethnic/immigrant" vote and using that to win seats in suburban Toronto and suburban Vancouver is still the path of least resistance for the CPC. It is also a more stable coalition for the CPC as they are not going to be on the offside with every single one of their key issues (tax cuts etc) with these voters as they would be with more ideologically left leaning small town Quebec. I don't know why people are counting the Conservatives out from contention for the ethnic vote consider Harper won it in 2011 and so did the Ford brothers. Harper laid out the blueprint of how the CPC can win, they'd be wise trying to replicate that strategy rather than galaxy brain ideas.

The Harper immigrant strategy/success was real, but greatly exaggerated. Yes it's true that Harper won the immigrant vote. When people think immigrant they think Chinese and Indian, but Europeans who moved in the 1950s are immigrants too. When you look at the type of immigrants that are growing in Canada's population, Harper didn't necessarily do too well. Conservatives got 31% of the visible minority vote in 2011, with the NDP getting 38% and Liberals 23%. Of course visible minority =/= immigrant, but most visible minorities in Canada (this doesn't include indigenous people of course) are immigrants, and most growing immigrant communities are visible minorities. In this sense, non-white immigrants didn't carry Harper to victory, so much as they followed a national trend. On a similar note, recent immigrants in 2011 voted for the NDP. This highlights a key difference--longtime, disproportionately white immigrants were the group that carried Harper to victory in 2011. More recent, disproportionately nonwhite immigrants stayed with the centre-left, only this time many of them voted NDP instead of the traditional Liberals (as with most other centre-left groups in 2011). The link to the poll below:

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/poll-how-religion-and-ethnicity-shaped-canadas-2011-election

With Ford in 2018, once again, immigrant groups did not necessarily carry the PCs as much as they followed the trend. Some groups like Chinese-Canadians swung heavily to the PCs, as they have federally as well. But the South Asian and Black communities, who tend to have similar voting patterns and are a very large bloc in the GTA when combined, still leaned left. If you look at poll-by-poll breakdowns in the GTA, the Liberals and NDP did better in parts of the GTA that are disproportionately black and south asian. It should be no surprise then that three of the NDP's four seats in the 905 were in Brampton. However, what skews people's perception is that many suburban and diverse ridings were split closely. Consider Scarborough Centre, where the PCs got 38% of the vote, but the NDP and Liberals split the centre-left 33-22. Or Brampton West, one of the two PC seats in Brampton, which broke down 39-38-18 PC-NDP-OLP. Going back to the 2011 federal election makes this even clearer. The Conservatives carried Bramalea-Gore-Malton, which has one of the highest immigrant populations in Canada. Upon further inspection, the CPC candidate only got 34% of the vote, and the NDP and Liberals split 34-29. I may be cherrypicking here, but there are just a lot of examples, in both 2011 and 2018, where the Conservative sweep of immigrant-heavy ridings were mainly a byproduct of the centre-left splitting votes.

Excellent analysis. 

[King of Kensington]

This split between Chinese and non-Chinese VMs is quite evident in Scarborough in the last Ontario election.  The heavily Chinese ridings (Scarborough North and Agincourt) went 50% PC, the PC vote was below 40% across the other Scarborough ridings.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

I'm not entirely convinced people will care much about deficits after everything is all said and done, but I think the feelings around China are going to be even worse than they were before, if such a thing were possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

In almost all cases, people shouldn't care about deficits either.

The "you run a national economy the same way as a household" mindset genuinely needs to die.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

That's a common theme with Canada's Conservatives. They seem to be so completely consumed by a seething hatred of Justin Trudeau that they keep making stupid mistakes like this. This has been the case forever--in 2015, they pushed the Justin is not ready message so hard, Tory ads made "Justin" seem like a child. Granted Trudeau is not a politician with the most merit or gravitas, but they set the bar so low he simply walked over it with a likable personality and a few good debate performances. It's doubly stupid because at the start of the 2015 campaign, it was the NDP, not the Liberals, who were ahead in the polls and most likely to unseat the Conservatives. Yet for some reason CPC strategists decided to focus all their energy on Trudeau, which only drew attention toward him, and people said "wow, this Trudeau is a lot better than I thought."

They did the same in 2019. Trudeau's approvals were already at an all-time low, Scheer had an opening to present himself as a competent, mature adult in the room, and present some kind of an alternative vision. Enter the English language debate, Scheer uses up half of his opening remarks to say:

"Justin Trudeau only pretends to stand up for Canada. You know, he's very good at pretending things. He can't even remember how many times he put blackface on. Because the fact of the matter is, he's always wearing a mask...Mr Trudeau, you're a phony, you're a fraud, you do not deserve to lead this country."

Why? Most Canadians already saw Trudeau quite unfavourably at the time, but by doubling down on it he ceded time to present an alternate vision (which I suspect the CPC didn't really have, at least not one that would be palatable to Canadians), and he came off as unnecessarily nasty and standoffish to a nation that prides itself on apologizing when someone else bumps into them. But again, the tories are just so consumed by hating this one man, they throw good politics out the window just to get at him. Most Canadians, even though they disapproved of Trudeau at the time, didn't share that seething hatred. In the end the CPC won the popular vote but didn't even come close to reaching the Liberals in seat count, because they just ended up making massive gains in already Conservative ridings.

It also didn't help that Scheer called Trudeau a phony and a fraud, right around the time Canadians found out he had a dual citizenship he didn't disclose, and lied about being an insurance broker when he was never actually certified and only worked as a clerk in an insurance office. Whoops!

This becomes clear if you listen to a hardcore conservative, or god forbid, follow their facebook pages. They just have an obsession with hating the guy, and they'll take any opportunity to take pot shots at Justin, no matter how ill-advised it is. This amateurish play on vaccines is yet another example. They always set the bar at knee height for Justin, and can't understand how he always manages to cross it.

[DC Al Fine]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

I'm not entirely convinced people will care much about deficits after everything is all said and done, but I think the feelings around China are going to be even worse than they were before, if such a thing were possible.

Yes, which is why O'Toole really ought to be hammering it mext election. It's the rare issue that simultaneously:

a) Atrracts the sort of non-base voter he's going after

b) Keeps the base happy

c) The Liberal government has been very weak on* and is out of touch with most Canadians about

* Foreign policy isn't really somethinng I get passionate about, but to my eyes, it seems the Liberals haven't done the work to protect themselves on China they have on other issues. E.g. Not banning Huawei from 5G like the rest of the Five Eyes.

Additionally, the Liberal brand and corresponding actions are very much tied up in a sort of cosmopolitanism that can seem very naive when facing a geopolitical foe, to say nothing of the awkward comments certain Liberals have made on the issue.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

I'm not entirely convinced people will care much about deficits after everything is all said and done, but I think the feelings around China are going to be even worse than they were before, if such a thing were possible.

Yes, which is why O'Toole really ought to be hammering it mext election. It's the rare issue that simultaneously:

a) Atrracts the sort of non-base voter he's going after

b) Keeps the base happy

c) The Liberal government has been very weak on* and is out of touch with most Canadians about

* Foreign policy isn't really somethinng I get passionate about, but to my eyes, it seems the Liberals haven't done the work to protect themselves on China they have on other issues. E.g. Not banning Huawei from 5G like the rest of the Five Eyes.

Additionally, the Liberal brand and corresponding actions are very much tied up in a sort of cosmopolitanism that can seem very naive when facing a geopolitical foe, to say nothing of the awkward comments certain Liberals have made on the issue.

I agree, it's definitely their best line of attack. The only even potential downside that I know of is that maybe it will turn off Chinese immigrants who tend to be quite patriotic about the old country, but I think most of the most heavily Chinese seats are Liberal anyway so it's definitely still a net benefit. What I am curious though is how the line will play in Atlantic Canada. As I'm sure you know first hand, that part of the country is incredibly swingy, and I've never been convinced that the Liberal strength out there is reliable due to that. If it does play well, the Tories could swing a good number of seats and make their lives a lot easier.

But really, I think the best thing about this line for them is that it helps them escape their perception as a Western-centric party. I don't have any data to back this up (not that there is much anyway in Canadian politics) but I am convinced the fact their 2019 campaign was so centered around the Western provinces is why they did so poorly East of Manitoba as opposed to any scares about Social Conservatism. Moving away from that perception is their first step to forming government, even if they lose next time (as I think they probably will).

[King of Kensington]

I see there's a hotly contested nomination in Thornhill for the CPC nomination between PC strategist Melissa Lantsman and the MPP, Gila Martow.  It seems like all the big names are behind Lantsman, both federal and provincial.

[DC Al Fine]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

Yeah. I mean it's only 125k people in a country of nearly 40 million, so there's still room for an attack if America and the UK are getting back to normal and we aren't, but they really should have approached the attack differently...

Honestly though, O'Toole ought to be hoping the vaccine rollout comes quickly, if only so we can get out of COVID-politics and into a more normal politics where people care about deficits and China again.

I'm not entirely convinced people will care much about deficits after everything is all said and done, but I think the feelings around China are going to be even worse than they were before, if such a thing were possible.

Yes, which is why O'Toole really ought to be hammering it mext election. It's the rare issue that simultaneously:

a) Atrracts the sort of non-base voter he's going after

b) Keeps the base happy

c) The Liberal government has been very weak on* and is out of touch with most Canadians about

* Foreign policy isn't really somethinng I get passionate about, but to my eyes, it seems the Liberals haven't done the work to protect themselves on China they have on other issues. E.g. Not banning Huawei from 5G like the rest of the Five Eyes.

Additionally, the Liberal brand and corresponding actions are very much tied up in a sort of cosmopolitanism that can seem very naive when facing a geopolitical foe, to say nothing of the awkward comments certain Liberals have made on the issue.

I agree, it's definitely their best line of attack. The only even potential downside that I know of is that maybe it will turn off Chinese immigrants who tend to be quite patriotic about the old country, but I think most of the most heavily Chinese seats are Liberal anyway so it's definitely still a net benefit. What I am curious though is how the line will play in Atlantic Canada. As I'm sure you know first hand, that part of the country is incredibly swingy, and I've never been convinced that the Liberal strength out there is reliable due to that. If it does play well, the Tories could swing a good number of seats and make their lives a lot easier.

But really, I think the best thing about this line for them is that it helps them escape their perception as a Western-centric party. I don't have any data to back this up (not that there is much anyway in Canadian politics) but I am convinced the fact their 2019 campaign was so centered around the Western provinces is why they did so poorly East of Manitoba as opposed to any scares about Social Conservatism. Moving away from that perception is their first step to forming government, even if they lose next time (as I think they probably will).

I'm not sure it will be specifically helpful in Atlantic Canada, but I certainly don't see it hurting.

Polling would indicate your hypothesis is correct. There was a poll done after the election which indicated that actual Tory voters were more worried by Scheer's social conservatism than people who considered voting Tory but didn't. The big problems for potential Tory voters were environmental issues and "doesn't represent my region" (i.e. what you said).

[DC Al Fine]

To be honest, the social conservatism thing seems like a red herring. I mean obviously if we elected Derek Sloan leader, it would be a problem, but I don't get the impression that the sort of voter/pundit who wrings their hands at Scheer's social conservatism neither understands that the Tories are going to be more socially conservative than the Liberals even if they aren't overtly socon, nor is all that open to voting for the Tories, period, even if their new leader is much more socially progressive.

For example, I was watching CBC's At Issue panel this week, and most of the pundits were arguing along the lines of "A bunch of Tory MP's voted against the assisted suicide bill, what's O'Toole going to do about the religious right", until Andrew Coyne pointed out that 100/120 Tory MP's voted against the bill, and the socons have nowhere near 100 MP's (and that some of the provisions in the bill are less popular than the initial assisted suicide law).

It's emblematic of Canadian politics as a whole. I certainly buy that Chantal Hebert is very concerned about the Tories voting against removing the terminally ill prerequisite for assisted death... I'm not so sure that the blue collar worker we're trying to win over in Thunder Bay or Miramichi is.

[2952-0-0]

Yes, which is why O'Toole really ought to be hammering it mext election. It's the rare issue that simultaneously:

a) Atrracts the sort of non-base voter he's going after

b) Keeps the base happy

c) The Liberal government has been very weak on* and is out of touch with most Canadians about

* Foreign policy isn't really somethinng I get passionate about, but to my eyes, it seems the Liberals haven't done the work to protect themselves on China they have on other issues. E.g. Not banning Huawei from 5G like the rest of the Five Eyes.

Additionally, the Liberal brand and corresponding actions are very much tied up in a sort of cosmopolitanism that can seem very naive when facing a geopolitical foe, to say nothing of the awkward comments certain Liberals have made on the issue.

I agree, it's definitely their best line of attack. The only even potential downside that I know of is that maybe it will turn off Chinese immigrants who tend to be quite patriotic about the old country, but I think most of the most heavily Chinese seats are Liberal anyway so it's definitely still a net benefit. What I am curious though is how the line will play in Atlantic Canada. As I'm sure you know first hand, that part of the country is incredibly swingy, and I've never been convinced that the Liberal strength out there is reliable due to that. If it does play well, the Tories could swing a good number of seats and make their lives a lot easier.

What happens with Canada-China relations is driven by factors outside Ottawa's control. Thanks to Xi's horrible foreign policy, he has squandered China's opportunity to seize the world's centre stage, and made enemies out of all the world's wealthy/democratic powers. If the Trump Administration was able to convince the first/democratic world to confront China, then the Biden Administration will for sure be even more successful. That means that Ottawa will get tough on China regardless who is in 24 Sussex (when its renovation is complete).

The "Chinese immigrant" community is very, very diverse. Some immigrants from the mainland might be pro-PRC, but they're not very politically engaged. Some others hate the CCP as much as the famous Cubans in Miami-Dade, but the Chinese opposition-in-exile is as fractured as in that Monty Python skit. The ones from Hong Kong are solid Conservative thanks to it being "tougher on China". The others from Taiwan and Southeast Asia might not rank the PRC highly as a priority. Second-generation Chinese-Canadians are too assimilated to care about the PRC.

China might become an issue, but not a very prominent one. It certainly can't substitute for more day-to-day ones like the economy or health care.

It's emblematic of Canadian politics as a whole. I certainly buy that Chantal Hebert is very concerned about the Tories voting against removing the terminally ill prerequisite for assisted death... I'm not so sure that the blue collar worker we're trying to win over in Thunder Bay or Miramichi is.

Scheer's inability to define himself arguably cost him last year's vote. Much of it was his own awful communication skills and his lack of even trying to appeal in Quebec. But the Liberals looooove to accuse the Conservatives of a hidden agenda, and he was unable to respond.

I agree that so-cons within Parliament aren't too much of a problem for O'Toole. But, his inability or unwillingness to control the wingnuts in his party who tweet conspiracy theories about vaccines and George Soros will at best distract from his messaging. More likely, they will allow the Liberals to smear them as a bunch of far-right Twitter trolls. That's a perfect environment for the Liberals.

[KaiserDave]

Purely anecdotal evidence but my Canadian family's political leanings at present are as follows. They are all centre-left to left wing.

Aunt #1: Voted Green in 2019 to protest Trudeau Corruption, will probably vote Red or Orange next round
Aunt #2: Probably voted NDP in 2019, will probably do so again
Aunt #3: Will vote NDP or Liberal as usual
Uncle #1: Hard one to match, will have to speak with him soon. He's the most moderate of the bunch (but voted NDP in 2019 to protest Trudeau corruption) but he's never voted for the conservatives. But then again he knows and likes O'Toole so he knows.
Grandmother: Will vote Liberal as usual because of her MP
Grandfather: Will vote NDP as usual

[DC Al Fine]

Yes, which is why O'Toole really ought to be hammering it mext election. It's the rare issue that simultaneously:

a) Atrracts the sort of non-base voter he's going after

b) Keeps the base happy

c) The Liberal government has been very weak on* and is out of touch with most Canadians about

* Foreign policy isn't really somethinng I get passionate about, but to my eyes, it seems the Liberals haven't done the work to protect themselves on China they have on other issues. E.g. Not banning Huawei from 5G like the rest of the Five Eyes.

Additionally, the Liberal brand and corresponding actions are very much tied up in a sort of cosmopolitanism that can seem very naive when facing a geopolitical foe, to say nothing of the awkward comments certain Liberals have made on the issue.

I agree, it's definitely their best line of attack. The only even potential downside that I know of is that maybe it will turn off Chinese immigrants who tend to be quite patriotic about the old country, but I think most of the most heavily Chinese seats are Liberal anyway so it's definitely still a net benefit. What I am curious though is how the line will play in Atlantic Canada. As I'm sure you know first hand, that part of the country is incredibly swingy, and I've never been convinced that the Liberal strength out there is reliable due to that. If it does play well, the Tories could swing a good number of seats and make their lives a lot easier.

What happens with Canada-China relations is driven by factors outside Ottawa's control. Thanks to Xi's horrible foreign policy, he has squandered China's opportunity to seize the world's centre stage, and made enemies out of all the world's wealthy/democratic powers. If the Trump Administration was able to convince the first/democratic world to confront China, then the Biden Administration will for sure be even more successful. That means that Ottawa will get tough on China regardless who is in 24 Sussex (when its renovation is complete).

The "Chinese immigrant" community is very, very diverse. Some immigrants from the mainland might be pro-PRC, but they're not very politically engaged. Some others hate the CCP as much as the famous Cubans in Miami-Dade, but the Chinese opposition-in-exile is as fractured as in that Monty Python skit. The ones from Hong Kong are solid Conservative thanks to it being "tougher on China". The others from Taiwan and Southeast Asia might not rank the PRC highly as a priority. Second-generation Chinese-Canadians are too assimilated to care about the PRC.

China might become an issue, but not a very prominent one. It certainly can't substitute for more day-to-day ones like the economy or health care.

A couple quibbles here:

First, I question how tough the Liberals will actually get on China even if every Western government including Canada is moving in that direction. Canada is the lone Five Eyes country to not ban Huawei from 5G, and the Aussies have taken tougher anti-Chinese measures than Canada despite being smaller than us and easier for the Chinese to hurt.

Similarly, we had that farcial incident that made the front page of the Globe and Mail this week where Foreign Affairs tried to pressure the military to not cancel joint exercises with the Chinese military, despite the PRC holding two of our citizens hostage. Obviously Trudeau shouldn't be held responsible for every pants-on-head-stupid decision a bureaucrat makes, but that sort of decision doesn't exactly scream that "tough on China" is the tone at the top.

Second, you discussed the effect primarily in terms of the Chinese immigrant community. I'm envisioning pushing this issue being more about moving blue collar white guys, and being tied into O'Toole's new approach on trade, rather than trying to get a Miami-Cuban effect.

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First, I question how tough the Liberals will actually get on China even if every Western government including Canada is moving in that direction. Canada is the lone Five Eyes country to not ban Huawei from 5G, and the Aussies have taken tougher anti-Chinese measures than Canada despite being smaller than us and easier for the Chinese to hurt.

Similarly, we had that farcial incident that made the front page of the Globe and Mail this week where Foreign Affairs tried to pressure the military to not cancel joint exercises with the Chinese military, despite the PRC holding two of our citizens hostage. Obviously Trudeau shouldn't be held responsible for every pants-on-head-stupid decision a bureaucrat makes, but that sort of decision doesn't exactly scream that "tough on China" is the tone at the top.

Second, you discussed the effect primarily in terms of the Chinese immigrant community. I'm envisioning pushing this issue being more about moving blue collar white guys, and being tied into O'Toole's new approach on trade, rather than trying to get a Miami-Cuban effect.

The Liberals will most likely "go with the flow" with the other major western economies, while expressing their idiosyncracies. They introduced a special immigration channel open to any Hong Kong youth (and I wouldn't put it past Trudeau to hug the first arrival at YYZ), which was definitely seen by Beijing as a hostile act. They won't be as hostile as Australia, but they definitely won't allow Canada to become a weak link in the Five Eyes or NATO for...what exactly? Canada has seen the sharpest deterioration in public opinion towards China in all the G7 countries.

As for Canada's stance on Huawei's 5G technology, while there was no formal ban, RoBelUs coincidentally announced on the same day that they will not use Huawei in their 5G networks. These announcements had Ottawa's fingerprints all over them. It also means that on the question of Huawei, Canada is in practical terms tougher than the UK, which merely banned installations of new Huawei 5G equipment starting next year. A formal ban on Huawei would likely come long after RoBelUs have started construction using other vendors, and would be just a political theatre for export to the US. The Conservatives know this, which is why they're trying to milk it for all it's worth.

The blue collar voter which O'Toole might target would be more swayed by day-to-day issues like the economy or health care (the two being conflated in our age). China would be worth a few talking points, but it can't substitute for those more day-to-day issues. Even Donald Trump recognized this, and his policy towards China will be his biggest long-term legacy.

O'Toole should be conveying a big picture on how Canada should fare in a post-pandemic world, because voters understand we won't be returning to 2019. Instead, so far we're seeing Harper-style boutique campaign promises without Harper's ability or even willingness to control his party's wingnuts. It's better than Scheer's performance, but the environment will be far better for the Liberals this time.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/BNNBloomberg/status/1344706024108945408

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/BNNBloomberg/status/1344706024108945408

How hard is it to take a year off of an annual vacation to the Caribbean (&, in Phillips' case, his 2nd vacation after an August trip to Switzerland), & lockdown aside, if only for the PR?