Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Recent provincial #'s are interesting.

BC: Despite recent uptick in COVID cases, Horgan still very popular and in great position to win a majority.  Wonder if he tries to engineer a fall election.

Alberta: Kenney is least popular premier and while would probably still win due to Alberta's conservative bent; post COVID-19 austerity may sink him.  At very least if Liberals were smart they should run attack ads of Kenney endorsing O'Toole as this could help them win back seats in Edmonton and maybe a few in Calgary.  Also I kind of think Kenney not Ford will be the bogeyman Liberals use next time.

Saskatchewan: Moe has a big lead and unless he does something criminal, he is pretty much guaranteed another majority.  More a question of just how big it is.

Manitoba:  Pallister is 2nd least popular premier, still his approval rating is fairly close to what he got last September so if an election were held today probably a repeat with maybe only a few close seats flipping.

Ontario: Ford has seen a big rebound and if an election were held today would easily be re-elected.  I think Ontario Liberals might win a few Tory held GTA seats, but PCs likely to pick up several NDP seats.  I could see blue collar ones like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, and Essex follow international trend and flip PC next time around.  What a different a year makes as a year ago he was a dead man walking, now the heavy favourite.  Off course things can change, so just saying where things are, not where they will be in June 2022.  Also good news for Tories federally as Ford now an asset not anchor, but will only gain there if federally if Trudeau's approval turns negative, not if it stays positive.

Quebec: Legault's approval ratings still sky high and would probably sweep just about every riding where Francophones are over 50% of the population.  Trudeau would be best not to anger him, while BQ try to align as much as possible.  While unlikely, O'Toole if smart would try to find a way to get his endorsement or at least one his top cabinet ministers.  Tories unlikely to make big gains in Quebec, but CAQ success shows potential is there, question is can they capitalize on it?

New Brunswick: Higgs looks in good shape to win a majority.  Yes early election call had some backlash, but as long as he remains ahead should win a majority.  He is cannibalizing most of the PANB so combined right support hasn't changed much.

PEI:  Dennis King very popular so wonder if he tries to go for an election soon to win a majority.

Nova Scotia: Not a lot of polling here, but with McNeil stepping down, will get a better read after new leader chosen.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Their new premier is largely unknown so has both potential to do well and potential to be a flip.

Yukon: Probably wait until next year for election, but with no polls no idea on how things are going there but based on how most premiers in Canada are getting a COVID bump and Yukon had few cases, I would assume Sandy Silver is too.

NWT and Nunavut: Have consensus governments so political polling irrelevant, but doing well on COVID-19

[CumbrianLefty]

Still zero virus cases in Nunavut?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/MaBlaisMorin/status/1300937634215231488

[jaymichaud]

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/09/08/toronto-police-officer-ordered-to-remove-punisher-patch-from-uniform.html

...

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1303795971516772364

[RogueBeaver]

RIP: https://twitter.com/natnewswatch/status/1305182288142127105

[DC Al Fine]

Leslyn Lewis is seeking the Conservative nomination in Haldimand-Norfolk

Good pick for her. The riding has a strong base of socons who backed her, so finding members to back her won't be too hard and she'd be a better cultural fit there than something like York Centre.

[DC Al Fine]

Two candidates so far are more or less confirmed in the NS Liberal leadership race:

1) Laurie Graham, Chief of Staff to the Premier

2) Kelly Regan, Minister of Community Services, MLA for Bedford, and wife of former federal cabinet minister, Speaker, and current MP for Halifax West, Geoff Regan.

Several cabinet ministers are also mulling a run.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/pvfoisy/status/1306980615212990464

https://twitter.com/ReutersBiz/status/1307024211299442690

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1307134162827194368

[RogueBeaver]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

[jaymichaud]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

R.I.P.

[jaymichaud]

Damn, mine is the only Russian one. I was certain Italians were the biggest ethnic group.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn, mine is the only Russian one. I was certain Italians were the biggest ethnic group.

Thornhill? I'm surprised it's not Jewish. But then again, most of those Russians are Jews.

Anyway, did you make this map? It's missing the obvious caveat that this is the largest ethnicity after "Canadian". 

[brucejoel99]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

I don't mean for this to sound at all callous, but it's really amazing that Canada hadn't seen a former PM pass away since 2000: 20 years ago! With the recent news of Chretien's wife passing away too, it feels like the near future will see Canada lose quite a few historic policy-makers, & that's really unfortunate.

RIP, Prime Minister.

[CumbrianLefty]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

I don't mean for this to sound at all callous, but it's really amazing that Canada hadn't seen a former PM pass away since 2000: 20 years ago! With the recent news of Chretien's wife passing away too, it feels like the near future will see Canada lose quite a few historic policy-makers, & that's really unfortunate.

RIP, Prime Minister.

In the UK we had two former PMs pass away in close succession in 1995 (Wilson and Douglas Home) and then nothing for a decade until Callaghan and Heath left us in short order come 2005. Since then just Thatcher in 2013.

[Hatman 🍁]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

I don't mean for this to sound at all callous, but it's really amazing that Canada hadn't seen a former PM pass away since 2000: 20 years ago! With the recent news of Chretien's wife passing away too, it feels like the near future will see Canada lose quite a few historic policy-makers, & that's really unfortunate.

RIP, Prime Minister.

And before that, it had been 21 years since Diefenbaker died. So, just 2 deaths in 41 years.

[cp]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

I don't mean for this to sound at all callous, but it's really amazing that Canada hadn't seen a former PM pass away since 2000: 20 years ago! With the recent news of Chretien's wife passing away too, it feels like the near future will see Canada lose quite a few historic policy-makers, & that's really unfortunate.

RIP, Prime Minister.

Sadly you might be right. Of the remaining former PMs, Clark, Mulroney, and Martin are all just over 81; Chretien is 86. Less likely to pass are Kim Campbell, who is a relatively spry 73, and Harper who's 61

Of course, we also had the heartbreakingly premature death of Jack Layton back in 2011, which came close to matching the elder Trudeau in outpourings of official mourning.  

[Storr]

Damn, mine is the only Russian one. I was certain Italians were the biggest ethnic group.

This map gives a clear look at why Nunavut was split from the North West Territory.

[DC Al Fine]

Two candidates so far are more or less confirmed in the NS Liberal leadership race:

1) Laurie Graham, Chief of Staff to the Premier

2) Kelly Regan, Minister of Community Services, MLA for Bedford, and wife of former federal cabinet minister, Speaker, and current MP for Halifax West, Geoff Regan.

Several cabinet ministers are also mulling a run.

Both the NS Liberal leadership candidates I listed have declined to run, after all but announcing their bids. Kelly Regan was even doing press releases from "Kelly Regan Campaign".

It's a very weird race. The winner automatically becomes Premier and the government has a lead in the polls. The deadline to run is a couple weeks away, yet we still have no declared candidates, and even the remaining speculative candidates haven't made any noises about running.

The three remaining plausible possible leadership candidates are:

Lena Diab, Minister of Immigration, Halifax Armdale
Labi Kousoulis, Minister of Labour, Halifax Citadel-Sable Island
Iain Rankin, Minister of Lands and Forestry, Timberlea-Prospect

[brucejoel99]

Two candidates so far are more or less confirmed in the NS Liberal leadership race:

1) Laurie Graham, Chief of Staff to the Premier

2) Kelly Regan, Minister of Community Services, MLA for Bedford, and wife of former federal cabinet minister, Speaker, and current MP for Halifax West, Geoff Regan.

Several cabinet ministers are also mulling a run.

Both the NS Liberal leadership candidates I listed have declined to run, after all but announcing their bids. Kelly Regan was even doing press releases from "Kelly Regan Campaign".

It's a very weird race. The winner automatically becomes Premier and the government has a lead in the polls. The deadline to run is a couple weeks away, yet we still have no declared candidates, and even the remaining speculative candidates haven't made any noises about running.

The three remaining plausible possible leadership candidates are:

Lena Diab, Minister of Immigration, Halifax Armdale
Labi Kousoulis, Minister of Labour, Halifax Citadel-Sable Island
Iain Rankin, Minister of Lands and Forestry, Timberlea-Prospect

Obviously unlikely, but if nobody declares by the deadline, does McNeil just rescind his resignation?

[DC Al Fine]

Two candidates so far are more or less confirmed in the NS Liberal leadership race:

1) Laurie Graham, Chief of Staff to the Premier

2) Kelly Regan, Minister of Community Services, MLA for Bedford, and wife of former federal cabinet minister, Speaker, and current MP for Halifax West, Geoff Regan.

Several cabinet ministers are also mulling a run.

Both the NS Liberal leadership candidates I listed have declined to run, after all but announcing their bids. Kelly Regan was even doing press releases from "Kelly Regan Campaign".

It's a very weird race. The winner automatically becomes Premier and the government has a lead in the polls. The deadline to run is a couple weeks away, yet we still have no declared candidates, and even the remaining speculative candidates haven't made any noises about running.

The three remaining plausible possible leadership candidates are:

Lena Diab, Minister of Immigration, Halifax Armdale
Labi Kousoulis, Minister of Labour, Halifax Citadel-Sable Island
Iain Rankin, Minister of Lands and Forestry, Timberlea-Prospect

Obviously unlikely, but if nobody declares by the deadline, does McNeil just rescind his resignation?

I suppose anything's possible but, but he seemed pretty intent on heading off into the sunset when he resigned

[jaymichaud]

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/indigenous-woman-who-died-at-joliette-hospital-had-recorded-staffs-racist-comments

Absolutely disgusting and sickening.

[Estrella]

https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/indigenous-woman-who-died-at-joliette-hospital-had-recorded-staffs-racist-comments

Absolutely disgusting and sickening.

And what happened after that was almost as bad.

In its 488-page report, published almost exactly a year ago, the commission concluded that racism and prejudice against Indigenous people on behalf of hospital staff “remain prevalent.”

One professor told the commission the situation is so dire many Indigenous people will avoid going to the hospital over fears of being discriminated against. For those who have to go, they mentally prepare themselves first for the treatment they’ll be subjected to.

According to Echaquan’s cousin, Karine Echaquan, she was often hospitalized because of her heart condition and had experienced similar discrimination as recently as last month.

Well, duh. Canada's relationship with her indigenous people is a lot like that of Europe with Roma: criticize racism in America and then in same breath mutter about how Those People are useless leeches, thieves, alcoholics etc. Though, to be fair, Canada's government is at least trying (pretending?) to fix the problem.

Anyway, cue the wonderful Premier:

During a news conference Tuesday, Premier François Legault called what transpired in the video “totally unacceptable.”

But asked whether he believes the incident speaks to systemic racism in Quebec, Legault said he did not.

“I really don’t think we have this kind of way of dealing with First Nations people in our hospitals in Quebec,” he said.

I wonder what Legault's reaction would be had he been told by an Anglophone a hundred years ago that there's no discrimination against Francophones in Canada.

[Estrella]

Half a century ago today.

For those who are interested in more, there's Robin Spry's great though somewhat insomnia-curing documentary and a followup about the Anglo-Quebecer reaction.

Side note: NFB has many amazing films on its website, most accessible for free. For politics people, there's stuff like The Champions about the Trudeau the Elder/Lévesque rivalry, or History on the Run.