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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #1750 on: December 16, 2021, 06:08:46 PM »

If I had to propose one, I think Patrick Brown would be a better Conservative Party leader. He's popular in precisely those demographics the Conservatives need to win, and he did moderate the PCPO while leader. His political comeback as Brampton mayor is going strong, and he's actively seeking the national political limelight with an open call to challenge Quebec's Bill 21. He'd be an excellent equivalent to David Cameron.

Patrick Brown isn't an option for oh so many reasons.

1. If Erin O'Toole is given the boot in 2022, it won't be a move even further to the left. The moderates want to keep O'Toole, it's the hardliners who want to replace him, so the energy won't be behind Brown.
2. He has MeToo baggage. He would argue that his name has been cleared, as no charges were filed and he won his lawsuit against CTV. But if you ask an average Ontarian what they know about Patrick Brown, it's very likely that the only thing they remember about him is a sexual harrassment scandal. That's no good.
3. Speaking of Ontario, he is on terrible terms with Ford and the PCPO. The CPC and PCPO may not be organizationally linked, but the PCPO base, donors, and insiders have heavy sway in what happens with the CPC. Without the support of Ontario Conservatives, he has an uphill battle.
4. The Western CPC base will be even less embracing of Brown. He's been a carbon tax supporter for years, and I don't mean an Erin O'Toole-style "carbon credits" scheme or something like that, he advocated for a flat out carbon tax. That alone will turn Alberta Tories against him.
5. Quebec has disproportionate power in picking the CPC leader because of the vote allocation system in leadership contests. Brown has been one of the most vocal opponents of Bill 21 in English Canada.

So yeah, someone like Brown would be an excellent choice in terms of making inroads in the GTA and maybe Metro Van, but it can't be him because he has too many enemies and too much baggage. He's a guy who pisses off Ontario Tories, Prairie Tories, Quebecers, the premiers of Canada's two largest provinces, and has a scandal in his CV that already cost him the leadership of a party.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1751 on: December 16, 2021, 07:56:23 PM »

Brown has a better shot at the LPC leadership. 
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
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« Reply #1752 on: December 16, 2021, 10:01:11 PM »

Brown has a better shot at the LPC leadership.  

Yes, and that shot is 0.00001%.

But even beyond Brown's unique problems, people who occupy a Patrick Brown-esque space in Canadian politics don't really have a home at the moment. I think O'Toole would like the Tories to be that party, but the CPC coalition necessarily includes people who are further to the right - old-school "movement conservatives", social conservatives, new-age prairie populists, etc.

But while "Red Tories" like Patrick Brown can't really unite today's Tories (even O'Toole had to trick them into voting for him over MacKay), they at least have somewhat of a voice - Michael Chong being the most obvious example. Whereas I'm not really sure Blue Grits exist anymore. The identity and ideology of today's LPC is built very strongly in the Justin Trudeau image, and increasingly Chrystia Freeland is having more influence, and they both represent a type of liberalism that is more aligned with the NDP than the CPC.

So people like John Tory and Patrick Brown don't really seem to fit into either party (and obviously not the NDP). As Tories, their views would at best serve as a counterweight to caucus colleagues who are significantly further to the right, and as Liberals, they would be out of line with the Trudeau/Freeland consensus that today's LPC is united around.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1753 on: December 17, 2021, 07:28:43 AM »

If I had to propose one, I think Patrick Brown would be a better Conservative Party leader. He's popular in precisely those demographics the Conservatives need to win, and he did moderate the PCPO while leader. His political comeback as Brampton mayor is going strong, and he's actively seeking the national political limelight with an open call to challenge Quebec's Bill 21. He'd be an excellent equivalent to David Cameron.

Patrick Brown isn't an option for oh so many reasons.

1. If Erin O'Toole is given the boot in 2022, it won't be a move even further to the left. The moderates want to keep O'Toole, it's the hardliners who want to replace him, so the energy won't be behind Brown.
2. He has MeToo baggage. He would argue that his name has been cleared, as no charges were filed and he won his lawsuit against CTV. But if you ask an average Ontarian what they know about Patrick Brown, it's very likely that the only thing they remember about him is a sexual harrassment scandal. That's no good.
3. Speaking of Ontario, he is on terrible terms with Ford and the PCPO. The CPC and PCPO may not be organizationally linked, but the PCPO base, donors, and insiders have heavy sway in what happens with the CPC. Without the support of Ontario Conservatives, he has an uphill battle.
4. The Western CPC base will be even less embracing of Brown. He's been a carbon tax supporter for years, and I don't mean an Erin O'Toole-style "carbon credits" scheme or something like that, he advocated for a flat out carbon tax. That alone will turn Alberta Tories against him.
5. Quebec has disproportionate power in picking the CPC leader because of the vote allocation system in leadership contests. Brown has been one of the most vocal opponents of Bill 21 in English Canada.

So yeah, someone like Brown would be an excellent choice in terms of making inroads in the GTA and maybe Metro Van, but it can't be him because he has too many enemies and too much baggage. He's a guy who pisses off Ontario Tories, Prairie Tories, Quebecers, the premiers of Canada's two largest provinces, and has a scandal in his CV that already cost him the leadership of a party.

Honestly Patrick Brown is the sort of leader you'd want if the goal was to make the PPC the official opposition
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1754 on: December 17, 2021, 09:48:37 AM »

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

The new Ethics chair is Pat Kelly (Calgary Rocky Ridge). Karen Vecchio (Elgin-Middlesex-London) for Status of Women. Government Operations and Public Accounts first meeting is on Thursday.

Public Accounts chair is Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard) and Robert Kitchen has been returned as Government Operations chair.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1755 on: December 17, 2021, 03:51:49 PM »

Speaking of Kitchen, Souris-Moose Mountain was the most right-wing riding in the country in the last election.  Highest vote share for the Conservatives (76%) and combined right (88%).  Hard to believe the Liberals eked out a win there in 1993!
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1756 on: December 17, 2021, 11:30:14 PM »

My advice to the Conservatives is pretty much useless, but I'd argue it would be wise to keep O'Toole.  He's a good fit for Atlantic Canada and much of Ontario, and I'd actually argue in Calgary as well (the Calgary of today is not the Calgary of the 90s when reactionary suburban conservatism was much more of a thing, so a more moderate CPC leader may hold back a liberalizing trend).  GTA and Metro Van seem pretty much gone for any Tory whether red or blue, barring a compete Liberal collapse, and Quebec is always going to be tough given the culture clash between ROC and Quebec conservatism.  The path to majority is increasingly difficult for the Conservatives.   
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1757 on: December 19, 2021, 02:12:31 PM »

Stop criticizing Quebec’s ban on religious symbols, Erin O’Toole warns Conservative MPs in tense meeting

O'Toole needs to go.
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Central Lake
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« Reply #1758 on: December 19, 2021, 09:30:02 PM »

"My advice to the Conservatives is pretty much useless."

I appreciate you acknowledging that you won't support/vote for the Conservatives. Not trolling I actually mean it.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1759 on: December 20, 2021, 06:50:48 AM »

Honest perspectives on your party from political opponents aren't always worthless - but the operative word in that is *honest*. Too often, they are transparent self-interested bad faith takes.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1760 on: December 20, 2021, 10:12:19 AM »

Honest perspectives on your party from political opponents aren't always worthless - but the operative word in that is *honest*. Too often, they are transparent self-interested bad faith takes.

Agreed.

Ignorance is also a problem in these scenarios. Many progressives don't understand the Right's appeal or inner workings (which to be fair  I don't understand UK Labour or the Liberals that well either Tongue), which can lead to poor analysis made in good faith.

E.g. It hasn't been as bad since the PPC took off this year, but I've seen lots of progressive pundits suggest that the Tories need to moderate* with zero consideration given to the possibility of right wing vote splitting, despite an extensive history of right wing break-away parties splitting the vote in this country.

*Also, why does "moderate" to newspaper and TV pundits always mean guns, carbon taxes, and pelvic issues, and never say, taxes and spending Tongue
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Central Lake
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« Reply #1761 on: December 20, 2021, 05:52:07 PM »

On another note, is it still possible to get a Ontario icon instead of Prussia.
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Continential
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« Reply #1762 on: December 20, 2021, 06:48:18 PM »

On another note, is it still possible to get a Ontario icon instead of Prussia.
Yes, and if you go to https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=31915;sa=forumProfile and select Republican and scroll down to Ontario, you can get an R-Ontario avatar.
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Central Lake
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« Reply #1763 on: December 20, 2021, 07:24:37 PM »

Thanks Ishan
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StateBoiler
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« Reply #1764 on: December 21, 2021, 03:58:16 PM »

Honest perspectives on your party from political opponents aren't always worthless - but the operative word in that is *honest*. Too often, they are transparent self-interested bad faith takes.
Yeahmore media outlets don't treat certain people as grains of salt on everything and say: "we're only going to publish anything you say if you ridicule your own side or praise the other side".
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1765 on: December 22, 2021, 05:44:53 PM »

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

The new Ethics chair is Pat Kelly (Calgary Rocky Ridge). Karen Vecchio (Elgin-Middlesex-London) for Status of Women. Government Operations and Public Accounts first meeting is on Thursday.

Public Accounts chair is Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard) and Robert Kitchen has been returned as Government Operations chair.

Thanks! Surprised Marty Morantz wasn't elected Public Accounts Chair.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1766 on: December 22, 2021, 07:14:34 PM »

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

The new Ethics chair is Pat Kelly (Calgary Rocky Ridge). Karen Vecchio (Elgin-Middlesex-London) for Status of Women. Government Operations and Public Accounts first meeting is on Thursday.

Public Accounts chair is Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard) and Robert Kitchen has been returned as Government Operations chair.

Thanks! Surprised Marty Morantz wasn't elected Public Accounts Chair.

He is not even sitting on that committee, he is only seating on the Foreign Affairs committee (of which he is vice-chair).
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EastAnglianLefty
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« Reply #1767 on: December 23, 2021, 10:15:56 AM »

Is there any pressure to change the CPC leadership election rules? They seem designed to make UK Labour's rulebook look sensible.
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Benjamin Frank
Frank
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« Reply #1768 on: December 23, 2021, 11:57:40 AM »

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

The new Ethics chair is Pat Kelly (Calgary Rocky Ridge). Karen Vecchio (Elgin-Middlesex-London) for Status of Women. Government Operations and Public Accounts first meeting is on Thursday.

Public Accounts chair is Tom Kmiec (Calgary Shepard) and Robert Kitchen has been returned as Government Operations chair.

Thanks! Surprised Marty Morantz wasn't elected Public Accounts Chair.

He is not even sitting on that committee, he is only seating on the Foreign Affairs committee (of which he is vice-chair).

Well, he should be! Smiley
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The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ
laddicus finch
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« Reply #1769 on: December 23, 2021, 10:56:16 PM »

Honest perspectives on your party from political opponents aren't always worthless - but the operative word in that is *honest*. Too often, they are transparent self-interested bad faith takes.

Agreed.

Ignorance is also a problem in these scenarios. Many progressives don't understand the Right's appeal or inner workings (which to be fair  I don't understand UK Labour or the Liberals that well either Tongue), which can lead to poor analysis made in good faith.

E.g. It hasn't been as bad since the PPC took off this year, but I've seen lots of progressive pundits suggest that the Tories need to moderate* with zero consideration given to the possibility of right wing vote splitting, despite an extensive history of right wing break-away parties splitting the vote in this country.

*Also, why does "moderate" to newspaper and TV pundits always mean guns, carbon taxes, and pelvic issues, and never say, taxes and spending Tongue

I would add that a lot of political analysis (and not just on amateur forums like this, but even by professional pundits) tends to be very myopic, and we are all prone to that. "x is what the y party needs to do" is prognostication, pure and simple. Politics, especially in the internet age, is a constantly-evolving affair, and issues change all the time.

I think it's pretty clear that in recent years, the CPC has been stuck in a bad position. The two issues that have dominated public discourse in the last two federal elections have been climate change and public health - in Canada, the Conservative brand is not trusted with these things. I think Trudeau making 2019 a climate election is an example of shrewd politicking on his (strategists') part, because even though there are real critiques to be made of the Liberals on this front, it's a file where the Canadian public is overwhelmingly more sympathetic to the Liberal worldview than the Conservative one. And in 2021, where public health took centre stage, O'Toole ultimately failed to cultivate trust on this issue. The Conservatives are not the party that swing voters choose to deliver substantive change or social welfare, they're the party that gets finances in order - of course, partisans of both parties will disagree with this analysis, and it is an overly simplistic analysis, but opinion polling shows this is how swing voters think. Many of the same voters who prefer the Liberals to handle the environment and healthcare, also prefer the Tories to handle public finances. Accordingly, many of the GTA suburbanites who embraced Ford in 2018 as the fiscally conservative "common sense" guy, also embraced Trudeau's bleeding heart liberalism a year later - they were concerned about different things in the two elections.

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mileslunn
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« Reply #1770 on: December 27, 2021, 10:35:37 PM »

Really interesting stuff, but what's striking to me is the extent to which FPTP has distorted the popular vote in the last two elections. In a hypothetical Quebec-less Canada, the Liberals in 2019 would have lost the popular vote by 7.2% and still won the most seats. That's the kind of stuff you wouldn't even see in the electoral college.

Really distorted.  Liberals won the popular vote in Ontario by 4 points but won twice as many seats as the Conservatives.  And in BC - where three parties came within 6 points of each other - the Liberals actually came third in the popular vote but edged out both the Conservatives and NDP in seats. Liberals benefitted from an efficient vote in Metro Vancouver, while they weren't competitive at all in the rest of the province.

Liberals really narrowly focused on key ridings.  But also part of it is turnout.  It appears turnout was lower in urban areas where Liberals tend to do well (perhaps due to greater worries about pandemic) while higher in rural areas where Tories do well.  Also in Canada, ridings are divided up by total population, not eligible voters (UK does it this way) and areas where Liberals are strongest tend to have more ineligible voters (under 18 or not citizens) than ridings Tories are strongest in. 

For example if every single PPC vote in Ontario, went over to Tories, Tories would have beat Liberals in popular vote yet still come up short in seats

One province though were it was the opposite was New Brunswick.  Liberals won by 8 points there yet it was 6-4 in seats, but same reason in how Higgs won in 2018 despite losing popular vote by 6 points.  Liberal vote in New Brunswick is inefficient due to massive margins amongst Francophones while Tories tend to win Anglophones by smaller margins.  But in the provinces where it mattered most, Liberal vote quite efficient.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1771 on: December 27, 2021, 10:38:14 PM »

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

I think this could be worse for provincial governments.  Omicron is likely not the last variant we get and this will put provincial governments in a horrible bind.  Bring in another lockdown which people are tired of and won't go over well with majority who are vaccinated.  Or stay open and risk ICUs collapsing.  Fact Trudeau has no say over most public health restrictions probably helps as I think if he did he would be in a horrible pickle.  Much of the Liberal base are upper middle class professionals not heavily impacted by lockdowns so all for it as they are about following science.  But big part of Trudeau coalition in 2015 was millennials and they are most likely to be fatigued by restrictions.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1772 on: December 27, 2021, 10:46:54 PM »

My advice to the Conservatives is pretty much useless, but I'd argue it would be wise to keep O'Toole.  He's a good fit for Atlantic Canada and much of Ontario, and I'd actually argue in Calgary as well (the Calgary of today is not the Calgary of the 90s when reactionary suburban conservatism was much more of a thing, so a more moderate CPC leader may hold back a liberalizing trend).  GTA and Metro Van seem pretty much gone for any Tory whether red or blue, barring a compete Liberal collapse, and Quebec is always going to be tough given the culture clash between ROC and Quebec conservatism.  The path to majority is increasingly difficult for the Conservatives.   

Would generally agree although wouldn't say GTA totally lost.  A sweep of 905 belt probably out of the picture, but Tories got in high 30s in many so slightly better splits and 5% more could flip a lot.  Mississauga and Brampton are probably largely gone, but ridings like Whitby, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville, and Burlington I still think are winnable.  Maybe not as easy it was a decade ago, but still winnable in a good election.  Swing in GVRD has been much more dramatic and unlike GTA, you are seeing it provincially too.  Best Tories can do there is try to get back into the mid 30s and hope and pray for strong splits on left (which in BC unlike Ontario is possible).

Quebec is always a tough one and I think their best shot for Quebec breakthrough was 2019 before BQ rebounded.  Now that BQ has rebounded, many Quebec cultural conservatives will go for them instead of Tories.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1773 on: December 28, 2021, 07:31:12 AM »

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

I think this could be worse for provincial governments.  Omicron is likely not the last variant we get and this will put provincial governments in a horrible bind.  Bring in another lockdown which people are tired of and won't go over well with majority who are vaccinated.  Or stay open and risk ICUs collapsing.  Fact Trudeau has no say over most public health restrictions probably helps as I think if he did he would be in a horrible pickle.  Much of the Liberal base are upper middle class professionals not heavily impacted by lockdowns so all for it as they are about following science.  But big part of Trudeau coalition in 2015 was millennials and they are most likely to be fatigued by restrictions.

Unless we get actual "vaccine escaping" variants (possible, but unlikely) it should be possible to avoid lockdowns without health services collapsing in well vaccinated countries (which Canada is) The truth is that lockdown was the appropriate response during the original pre-vaccine virus waves, but that is not the case now and governments should stop treating them as almost a routine event.
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mileslunn
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1774 on: December 28, 2021, 05:38:27 PM »

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

I think this could be worse for provincial governments.  Omicron is likely not the last variant we get and this will put provincial governments in a horrible bind.  Bring in another lockdown which people are tired of and won't go over well with majority who are vaccinated.  Or stay open and risk ICUs collapsing.  Fact Trudeau has no say over most public health restrictions probably helps as I think if he did he would be in a horrible pickle.  Much of the Liberal base are upper middle class professionals not heavily impacted by lockdowns so all for it as they are about following science.  But big part of Trudeau coalition in 2015 was millennials and they are most likely to be fatigued by restrictions.

Unless we get actual "vaccine escaping" variants (possible, but unlikely) it should be possible to avoid lockdowns without health services collapsing in well vaccinated countries (which Canada is) The truth is that lockdown was the appropriate response during the original pre-vaccine virus waves, but that is not the case now and governments should stop treating them as almost a routine event.

That may be true, but lots of health experts calling for lockdowns.  Canadians tend to be very risk averse so even if no need for them, many will ask for one out of fear.  Off course varies by province and territory.  Nunavut is already in lockdown but so far no one else.

Alberta I doubt does as Kenney faces a leadership review in April 2022 and any lockdown is almost certain to result in him being dumped on top of poor polling numbers.

Ontario unlikely either since despite being extra cautious, Ford faces an election this coming June.  Left is split while right is largely united, but another lockdown could give further right wing parties 5-10% of popular vote and they get similar #'s to PPC federally in Ontario he is finished.  Federally CPC + PPC was 40.4% in Ontario, exact percentage Ford got in 2018 thus any split on right no matter how small is fatal.

Saskatchewan likely won't due to ideological bent of government

BC unlikely either as Dr. Bonnie Henry makes decisions and she has generally taken a softer approach than most.

Now Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Manitoba I could see going into lockdown.  Quebec already very close while Atlantic Canada has largely avoided COVID-19 to date so easy for people to freak out at current numbers despite high vaccine rates.
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