Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[MaxQue]

Green new leader is Amita Kuttner. They were the candidate in Burbaby North - Seymour in 2019 and got 7% in the last leadership race. They are obviously, the first non-binary party leader.

Aparently, the favourite to become interim party leader was Paul Manly, but he pulled out. Rumour is that he wants to run for permanent leader in a few months.

[Benjamin Frank]

Deputy Speaker will be Chris d'Entremont. Also, the Conservatives didn't resign from the Committee, they are boycotting it, instead.

Thanks for the information. 

1.Chris d'Entremont was previously appointed as the Deputy Shadow Minister for Public Safety, will he be stepping down/removed from this post given this appointment as Deputy Speaker?

2.Boycott/resign, I think is more or less a distinction without a difference.  For instance, I'm pretty sure the Conservatives did not announce new appointments or re-appointments to this committee but then added 'though they have been appointed, they will continue to boycott.'

[NewYorkExpress]

Toronto schools canceled a book and appearance by a Christian survivor of ISIS on the grounds that it would be promote Islamaphobia.

The Toronto School District Board, earlier this month canceled an appearance by Yazidi survivor of ISIS Nadia Murad on the grounds that it would promote Islamaphobia.

[Continential]

Green new leader is Amita Kuttner. They were the candidate in Burbaby North - Seymour in 2019 and got 7% in the last leadership race. They are obviously, the first non-binary party leader.

They are the first transgender party leader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Certainly in Canada, possibly anywhere? Excluding literal micro-parties anyway.

[StateBoiler]

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

So ridiculous that "leadership" has so many people.

How many of Trudeau's ministers control zero or minimal budgets/staffs tied to their position?

[Benjamin Frank]

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

So ridiculous that "leadership" has so many people.

How many of Trudeau's ministers control zero or minimal budgets/staffs tied to their position?

I don't specifically know.  There are a couple points here more generally though:
1.I break down the cabinet into 28 senior ministers and 11 junior ministers. There are actually 29 senior ministries but Dominic Leblanc is responsible for two of them: Intergovernmental Affairs and Infrastructure and Communities.  Although my basis for this is more than just my personal views of the merits of each ministry, I don't know specifically every minister that should be considered a junior minister.

2.The Justin Trudeau government passed a law to remove the 'junior ministry' designation and make all ministers DeJure equal anyway.  However, I think a better way to look at that rather than this law is 'which ministers have a department or even their own Deputy Minister.

One sign over the last 6 years of a DeFacto junior minister is that Trudeau keeps doing away with them.  In the last Parliament there were ministries of 'Middle Class prosperity' and 'Digital Government' that have both been wiped out.  Previous to that, Bill Blair was the Minister of Border Security that was wiped out when he was named Public Safety Minister, and Kirsty Duncan was the Minister for Science (blue sky science) that was eliminated when she was dropped from the cabinet.

 A number of these portfolios that I classify as junior ministers I know don't have their own departments, but I don't actually know which ones of them:

1.Housing
2.Seniors
3.Mental Health and Addictions
4.Northern Affairs
5.Emergency Preparedness
6.Southern Ontario Economic Development Agency
7.Tourism
8.Rural Economic Development
9.Sport
10.Women and Gender Equality and Youth
11.Official Languages

Of these, Mental Health and Addictions and Housing are new ministries.  At this time in Canada both are important, but situations like these had been previously handled by Parliamentary Secretaries to Ministers with specific responsibilities.  

Rural Economic Development and Seniors are the only ones of these ministries to be handed off to a new minister.  Official Languages had been previously tied to the Heritage Ministry I think, Emergency Preparedness had been part of the Ministry of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness and Women and Gender Equality and Youth had been previously handled by a minister who had additional responsibilities.

I don't know where 'Sport' was prior to this, and Tourism had been part of the Ministry of Economic Development which combined all 6 of the regional economic development agencies into one ministry.  The minister for Southern Ontario Economic Development, Helena Jaczek, is the only minister for whom this is their sole responsibility in cabinet.

Overall, there are 39 Ministers including the Prime Minister, which is about 1/4 of the caucus.

[StateBoiler]

Boys in Short Pants podcast got Erin O'Toole on as a guest a couple weeks ago. Long-form, 68 minutes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Boys in Short Pants podcast got Erin O'Toole on as a guest a couple weeks ago. Long-form, 68 minutes.

Really liked that episode. EO'T has a certain kind of charisma where he sounds like a friendly, down-to-earth guy who isn't always reading talking points (I mean, of course he's sticking to talking points like all politicians, but I think he effectively masks it under a kind of relatable persona, a skill that Trudeau isn't very good at). He displayed this persona during the election too, and it helped him in the polls, but ultimately the party brand was too toxic for it to change anything - at least, that's my opinion.

I think it's good that his job as leader seems safe, especially after the unanimous caucus support (or at least lack of dissent) on the conversion therapy bill. O'Toole just might be the CPC's keys back to power, if they can get him to speak more and the nuttier caucus members to shut up a lot more.

[Benjamin Frank]

Northern Manitoba NDP MLA Danielle Adams died in a car crash last night.       
There might be more political aspects to this, but I don't think now is the time.

https://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/manitoba-mla-dies-after-car-crash-near-thompson-ndp-1.5701554

[King of Kensington]

Mel Lastman, Toronto's first post-amalgamation mayor, has died:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/former-toronto-mayor-mel-lastman-dies-age-88-1.6282854

[DC Al Fine]

Re: O'Toole's leadership



He seems to have neutralized his opponents in caucus for now, but his approval with the base is quite weak (worse than Scheer's when he got forced out)... and that's with Tory voters. I suspect his approval figures are worse with actual Tory members

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Re: O'Toole's leadership



He seems to have neutralized his opponents in caucus for now, but his approval with the base is quite weak (worse than Scheer's when he got forced out)... and that's with Tory voters. I suspect his approval figures are worse with actual Tory members

He managed to whip his caucus on the conversion therapy bill, but it seems a good chunk of Tory voters didn't appreciate that, in addition to his general moderating approach (and the fact that it didn't win them the election).

I struggle to see who could replace him. If he so chooses, Poilievre could sink O'Toole singlehandedly. In effect, Pierre Poilievre is the spiritual leader of the CPC, but I get the sense that Poilievre would rather play kingmaker than actually go for the big job, because he probably realizes that the persona he's built over his career is unlikely to go over well in a general. No other member of the CPC caucus seems particularly notable - Lisa Raitt could have been a good leader, but that ship has sailed.

Outside caucus, honestly, it feels like Doug Ford is the closest thing to a natural CPC leader. But between his habit of constantly making the news for all the wrong reasons, having a provincial election ahead of him, and not speaking French, he's not an option. Honestly, O'Toole might stay on just by default which does not speak well to the health of the conservative movement in this country.

Edit: I would add that Gerard Deltell and Alain Rayes are good options from Quebec, but a Francophone Quebecer is unlikely to win the CPC leadership, and I think they realize that.

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote and seats, English Canada

Liberals

2011  20.6%  27 seats
2015  40.6%  144 seats
2019  32.8%  122 seats
2021  32.3%  125 seats

Conservatives

2011  47.7%  161 seats
2015  36.7%  87 seats
2019  40%  111 seats
2021  38.4%  109 seats

NDP

2011  26.4%  44 seats
2015  17.9%  28 seats
2019  17.6%  23 seats
2021  20.3%  24 seats

https://twitter.com/addammy1/status/1469473554852986886

[MaxQue]

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

The new Ethics chair is Pat Kelly (Calgary Rocky Ridge). Karen Vecchio for Status of Women. Government Operations and Public Accounts first meeting is on Thursday.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Popular vote and seats, English Canada

Liberals

2011  20.6%  27 seats
2015  40.6%  144 seats
2019  32.8%  122 seats
2021  32.3%  125 seats

Conservatives

2011  47.7%  161 seats
2015  36.7%  87 seats
2019  40%  111 seats
2021  38.4%  109 seats

NDP

2011  26.4%  44 seats
2015  17.9%  28 seats
2019  17.6%  23 seats
2021  20.3%  24 seats

https://twitter.com/addammy1/status/1469473554852986886

Really interesting stuff, but what's striking to me is the extent to which FPTP has distorted the popular vote in the last two elections. In a hypothetical Quebec-less Canada, the Liberals in 2019 would have lost the popular vote by 7.2% and still won the most seats. That's the kind of stuff you wouldn't even see in the electoral college.

[2952-0-0]

He managed to whip his caucus on the conversion therapy bill, but it seems a good chunk of Tory voters didn't appreciate that, in addition to his general moderating approach (and the fact that it didn't win them the election).

I struggle to see who could replace him. If he so chooses, Poilievre could sink O'Toole singlehandedly. In effect, Pierre Poilievre is the spiritual leader of the CPC, but I get the sense that Poilievre would rather play kingmaker than actually go for the big job, because he probably realizes that the persona he's built over his career is unlikely to go over well in a general. No other member of the CPC caucus seems particularly notable - Lisa Raitt could have been a good leader, but that ship has sailed.

Outside caucus, honestly, it feels like Doug Ford is the closest thing to a natural CPC leader. But between his habit of constantly making the news for all the wrong reasons, having a provincial election ahead of him, and not speaking French, he's not an option. Honestly, O'Toole might stay on just by default which does not speak well to the health of the conservative movement in this country.

Edit: I would add that Gerard Deltell and Alain Rayes are good options from Quebec, but a Francophone Quebecer is unlikely to win the CPC leadership, and I think they realize that.

This might be the best case scenario for the Liberals. Erin O'Toole is now both weakened, but not too weak that his leadership is in danger. As long as this is the case, the Conservative identity crisis will drag on, and allow the Liberals to govern as if they had a majority.

Of course, Liberals governing with a majority, or if they had a majority, for an extended period inevitably leads to their trademark Natural Governing Party arrogance, but that's another issue.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

He managed to whip his caucus on the conversion therapy bill, but it seems a good chunk of Tory voters didn't appreciate that, in addition to his general moderating approach (and the fact that it didn't win them the election).

I struggle to see who could replace him. If he so chooses, Poilievre could sink O'Toole singlehandedly. In effect, Pierre Poilievre is the spiritual leader of the CPC, but I get the sense that Poilievre would rather play kingmaker than actually go for the big job, because he probably realizes that the persona he's built over his career is unlikely to go over well in a general. No other member of the CPC caucus seems particularly notable - Lisa Raitt could have been a good leader, but that ship has sailed.

Outside caucus, honestly, it feels like Doug Ford is the closest thing to a natural CPC leader. But between his habit of constantly making the news for all the wrong reasons, having a provincial election ahead of him, and not speaking French, he's not an option. Honestly, O'Toole might stay on just by default which does not speak well to the health of the conservative movement in this country.

Edit: I would add that Gerard Deltell and Alain Rayes are good options from Quebec, but a Francophone Quebecer is unlikely to win the CPC leadership, and I think they realize that.

This might be the best case scenario for the Liberals. Erin O'Toole is now both weakened, but not too weak that his leadership is in danger. As long as this is the case, the Conservative identity crisis will drag on, and allow the Liberals to govern as if they had a majority.

Of course, Liberals governing with a majority, or if they had a majority, for an extended period inevitably leads to their trademark Natural Governing Party arrogance, but that's another issue.

It's hard to see how the CPC could win an election right now, but all governing parties are unbeatable until they're beaten. I think it's fair to say that, barring a motion of non-confidence (which would require the NDP to feel bullish in order to pass), there won't be an election anytime soon. The 2021 election showed that all four recognized parties have weaknesses. The Grits and the Bloc had to fight tooth-and-nail to hold onto their support base, while the Tories and NDP can't seem to expand beyond theirs. But time is to O'Toole's advantage. If he can quash internal dissent and assert his authority, he will get to go against either a jaded Trudeau, or a new Liberal leader who will have her own problems to sort out.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

[OSR stands with Israel]

He managed to whip his caucus on the conversion therapy bill, but it seems a good chunk of Tory voters didn't appreciate that, in addition to his general moderating approach (and the fact that it didn't win them the election).

I struggle to see who could replace him. If he so chooses, Poilievre could sink O'Toole singlehandedly. In effect, Pierre Poilievre is the spiritual leader of the CPC, but I get the sense that Poilievre would rather play kingmaker than actually go for the big job, because he probably realizes that the persona he's built over his career is unlikely to go over well in a general. No other member of the CPC caucus seems particularly notable - Lisa Raitt could have been a good leader, but that ship has sailed.

Outside caucus, honestly, it feels like Doug Ford is the closest thing to a natural CPC leader. But between his habit of constantly making the news for all the wrong reasons, having a provincial election ahead of him, and not speaking French, he's not an option. Honestly, O'Toole might stay on just by default which does not speak well to the health of the conservative movement in this country.

Edit: I would add that Gerard Deltell and Alain Rayes are good options from Quebec, but a Francophone Quebecer is unlikely to win the CPC leadership, and I think they realize that.

This might be the best case scenario for the Liberals. Erin O'Toole is now both weakened, but not too weak that his leadership is in danger. As long as this is the case, the Conservative identity crisis will drag on, and allow the Liberals to govern as if they had a majority.

Of course, Liberals governing with a majority, or if they had a majority, for an extended period inevitably leads to their trademark Natural Governing Party arrogance, but that's another issue.

It's hard to see how the CPC could win an election right now, but all governing parties are unbeatable until they're beaten. I think it's fair to say that, barring a motion of non-confidence (which would require the NDP to feel bullish in order to pass), there won't be an election anytime soon. The 2021 election showed that all four recognized parties have weaknesses. The Grits and the Bloc had to fight tooth-and-nail to hold onto their support base, while the Tories and NDP can't seem to expand beyond theirs. But time is to O'Toole's advantage. If he can quash internal dissent and assert his authority, he will get to go against either a jaded Trudeau, or a new Liberal leader who will have her own problems to sort out.

When in Harper's tenure did it really look like the Tories could be defeated in a general election.

[2952-0-0]

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

[King of Kensington]

Really interesting stuff, but what's striking to me is the extent to which FPTP has distorted the popular vote in the last two elections. In a hypothetical Quebec-less Canada, the Liberals in 2019 would have lost the popular vote by 7.2% and still won the most seats. That's the kind of stuff you wouldn't even see in the electoral college.

Really distorted.  Liberals won the popular vote in Ontario by 4 points but won twice as many seats as the Conservatives.  And in BC - where three parties came within 6 points of each other - the Liberals actually came third in the popular vote but edged out both the Conservatives and NDP in seats. Liberals benefitted from an efficient vote in Metro Vancouver, while they weren't competitive at all in the rest of the province.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

[2952-0-0]

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

The Trudeau Liberals have been hovering at about 30-40% approval for years, and have still won elections due to weak Conservative leadership. The OLP won re-election for this same reason: Tim Hudak came across as a used car salesman who couldn't restrain the nutcases in his party. The OLP, in its final years, had an approval rate well below 30%, and were stuck with a parade of scandals.

We're well overdue for rising interest rates and a real estate crash in the coming years. That's definitely a vulnerability for the Liberals, but Canadian governments have been able to brush off the political costs of recessions by claiming that Canada is too small and globalized for Ottawa to control the economy. Even better, they can claim that a recession means we need steady and crisis-tested leadership.

As for the pandemic, that has been if anything a boon for the Trudeau Liberals. People like the warm, fuzzy feeling he gives during a time of crisis, as well as the concrete help he has given. It also helps that the Conservatives are infested with anti-vaxxers and other nutcases. The Liberals have very cleverly backed O'Toole into a corner on the pandemic, by proposing a vaccine mandate to enter Parliament, which O'Toole wouldn't support, but won't explain why. Also, just today, the Liberals and NDP announced their MPs will be forbidden from leaving the country during the holiday period, while the Conservatives refused to follow suit. As long as the pandemic is still a thing, the Liberals will happily use it as a wedge issue.

If I had to propose one, I think Patrick Brown would be a better Conservative Party leader. He's popular in precisely those demographics the Conservatives need to win, and he did moderate the PCPO while leader. His political comeback as Brampton mayor is going strong, and he's actively seeking the national political limelight with an open call to challenge Quebec's Bill 21. He'd be an excellent equivalent to David Cameron.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

He managed to whip his caucus on the conversion therapy bill, but it seems a good chunk of Tory voters didn't appreciate that, in addition to his general moderating approach (and the fact that it didn't win them the election).

I struggle to see who could replace him. If he so chooses, Poilievre could sink O'Toole singlehandedly. In effect, Pierre Poilievre is the spiritual leader of the CPC, but I get the sense that Poilievre would rather play kingmaker than actually go for the big job, because he probably realizes that the persona he's built over his career is unlikely to go over well in a general. No other member of the CPC caucus seems particularly notable - Lisa Raitt could have been a good leader, but that ship has sailed.

Outside caucus, honestly, it feels like Doug Ford is the closest thing to a natural CPC leader. But between his habit of constantly making the news for all the wrong reasons, having a provincial election ahead of him, and not speaking French, he's not an option. Honestly, O'Toole might stay on just by default which does not speak well to the health of the conservative movement in this country.

Edit: I would add that Gerard Deltell and Alain Rayes are good options from Quebec, but a Francophone Quebecer is unlikely to win the CPC leadership, and I think they realize that.

This might be the best case scenario for the Liberals. Erin O'Toole is now both weakened, but not too weak that his leadership is in danger. As long as this is the case, the Conservative identity crisis will drag on, and allow the Liberals to govern as if they had a majority.

Of course, Liberals governing with a majority, or if they had a majority, for an extended period inevitably leads to their trademark Natural Governing Party arrogance, but that's another issue.

It's hard to see how the CPC could win an election right now, but all governing parties are unbeatable until they're beaten. I think it's fair to say that, barring a motion of non-confidence (which would require the NDP to feel bullish in order to pass), there won't be an election anytime soon. The 2021 election showed that all four recognized parties have weaknesses. The Grits and the Bloc had to fight tooth-and-nail to hold onto their support base, while the Tories and NDP can't seem to expand beyond theirs. But time is to O'Toole's advantage. If he can quash internal dissent and assert his authority, he will get to go against either a jaded Trudeau, or a new Liberal leader who will have her own problems to sort out.

When in Harper's tenure did it really look like the Tories could be defeated in a general election.

Yep, my point exactly. Especially after 2011 Harper seemed like an unbeatable electoral titan, the Conservative Party was seen as the new natural governing party, the Canadian centre-left was hopelessly split and unable to counter the growing popularity of the CPC among immigrants in the 905. Then in 2015, all of these notions came crashing down. To write off the Tories entirely is to suffer from the same tunnel vision that political observers suffered from a decade ago.