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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1675 on: November 01, 2021, 07:55:16 PM »

If Erin O'Toole did resign or was forced out as leader, these are the Conservative M.Ps I think would be the most likely to run to replace him.

1.Shannon Stubbs
2.Pierre Polievre
3.Leslyn Lewis
4.Melissa Lantsman
5.Marilyn Gladu
6.Rob Moore
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1676 on: November 01, 2021, 08:17:09 PM »

Somewhat out of the Trump playbook, Shelly Glover is seeking to have the results of the Manitoba leadership convention overturned citing 'irregularities.'

However, out of the much more legitimate Stacey Abrams playbook, Glover does seem to have a legitimate case citing that over 1,200 Conservative members did not receive their ballots in order to vote. In so far as Glover lost by just 400 votes, which was much narrower than expected, she might have a legitimate claim.

This is especially the case given that it's likely that most of those who failed to receive ballots were in the rural areas where her support was the strongest and also that there is no question the leadership of the P.C organization were tacitly supporting her opponent Heather Stefanson.  

The Party acknowledged before the vote that there were at least 1,200 members who did not receive a ballot in time to vote, but said that other accommodations had been made available to them.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1677 on: November 02, 2021, 07:51:26 AM »

Ah, shades of the Clegg-Huhne contest for the LibDem leadership back in 2007.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1678 on: November 02, 2021, 05:19:38 PM »

She now said to a CBC journalist "I am the Premier, not her".
She is claiming the party made up 500 botes for her opponent.
She is totally insane.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/glover-lawsuit-election-pc-1.6234056
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1679 on: November 03, 2021, 07:32:25 PM »

She now said to a CBC journalist "I am the Premier, not her".
She is claiming the party made up 500 botes for her opponent.
She is totally insane.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/glover-lawsuit-election-pc-1.6234056

She's not insane, she's copying the Trump playbook.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1680 on: November 03, 2021, 07:36:43 PM »

She now said to a CBC journalist "I am the Premier, not her".
She is claiming the party made up 500 botes for her opponent.
She is totally insane.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/glover-lawsuit-election-pc-1.6234056

She's not insane, she's copying the Trump playbook.

It may be saying something about my opinion of Donald Trump.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1681 on: November 04, 2021, 02:20:14 AM »
« Edited: November 04, 2021, 02:41:20 AM by Frank »

These are the only remaining Conservatives who served in cabinet left:
Senior cabinet
1.Erin O'Toole
2.Pierre Polievre
3.Ed Fast
4.Kerry Lynne Findlay
5.Michael Chong, briefly a minister before resigning

Junior Ministers
1.Michelle Rempel Garner
2.Tim Uppal
3.Kelly Block
4.Candice Bergen
5.Rob Moore

Turnover seems to be pretty fast in Canada. Only 12 of the original 31 Trudeau Ministers are still in the cabinet:
1.Justin Trudeau
2.Chrystia Freeland
3.Carla Qualtrough
4.Diane Lebouthilier (only minister in original ministry, probably because she does the Liberal government's bidding of not cracking down on wealthy tax cheats.)
5.Marie Claude Bibeau
6.Dominic LeBlanc
7.Jean Yves Duclos
8.Patty Hajdu
9.Lawrence Macaulay
10.Harjit Sajjan
11.Melanie Joly
12.Carolyn Bennett
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1682 on: November 04, 2021, 02:40:40 AM »

Also from the I can't sleep files, these are the other Conservative M.Ps remaining who were first elected before 2015.
1.John Williamson
2.Jacques Gourde
3.Bernard Genereux
4.Scott Reid
5.Cheryl Gallant
6.Kyle Seeback
7.Colin Carrie
8.Dean Allison
9.Ben Lobb
10.Dave MacKenzie
11.Larry Maguire
12.Ted Falk
13.James Bezan
14.Andrew Scheer
15.Randy Hoback
16.Blake Richards
17.John Barlow
18.Chris Warkentin
19.Blaine Calkins
20.Earl Dreeshen
21.Mike Lake
22.Dan Albas
23.Bob Zimmer
24.Mark Strahl
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1683 on: November 04, 2021, 02:44:48 AM »

Finally, for those who fall for the 'muh freedom' crowd on vaccines, here is the now Conservative Chief Whip Scott Reid admonishing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for breaking the rules on not eating in the House of Commons in March of 2019.  Apparently to Conservatives, eating in the House of Commons is a terrible thing to do, but mandating a life saving vaccine for M.Ps to appear in the House of Commons is a violation of freedom.



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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1684 on: November 04, 2021, 04:05:15 PM »

Tory MP Marilyn Gladu is forming a "civil liberties caucus" to discuss defending antivax constituents who lost their jobs and claims it might have 30+ members soon. She denies it is an O'Toole challenge. One MP wonders if unvaxxed colleagues might be expelled if they make a scene when Parliament reconvenes. The caucus is divided in thirds between pro, anti and neutral-EOT members.

In Montreal, Valérie Plante looks set to comfortably win her rematch with Denis Coderre in Sunday's municipal election.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1685 on: November 05, 2021, 10:00:11 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2021, 10:22:13 PM by Frank »

The Canadian English television media's coverage regarding the X political event proves they are liberal and conservative hacks.

I hope this isn't news to Canadians here, but to everyone else, I'm being serious.  When conducting interviews especially, the television journalists on all the major networks will veer from advocating completely the position of one extreme of a debate, and then advocate completely for the opposite extreme position.

This is clearly not some random bizarre thing, but must be a bizarre thing taught in English Canadian journalism school.  I find it to be incredibly annoying and not at all helpful in gaining news. I don't know what the French Canadian media is like.

As an example, this is from the Canadian English language questions from Global News' Mercedes Stephenson in the climate change section of the debate:

"Mr. Trudeau starting with you, on your watch Canada's Green House gas emissions have gone up every year since 2016 giving this country the worst emissions reduction record in the G7.  According to the most recent data from your government, Canada's emissions in 2019 were just as high as they were 15 years ago, Environmentalists say that your performance is insufficient.  If you're so serious about climate change, why are Canada's emissions still going up?"

Then
"Mrs. Paul, obviously climate change is a big focus in your plan, your party calls for a 60% reduction in emissions by 2030, others countries that are making that commitment don't face the same challenges that we do here in Canada.  We live in a cold northern sprawling country and our economy still relies on resource extraction much of which you said you'd shut down completely, how would you offset the economic harm that would come from meeting such an aggressive target?"

Since this was a debate, maybe Mercedes Stephenson should have just debated herself.



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Estrella
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« Reply #1686 on: November 08, 2021, 08:07:38 PM »

This confirms my belief that Liberals are doing their darnedest to avoid anyone actually having to spend any money on reconciliation (see also the neverending saga about Sixties Scoop compensation that has been going on for 14 years yet Trudeau seems intent to keep it going for longer). Either that, or some people in the civil service need to be fired. Most likely both.

Miller 'dumbfounded' appeal dropped over Catholic Church's residential school payments

Quote
Newly named Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister Marc Miller says he wants to get to the bottom of why Ottawa abandoned its appeal of a ruling releasing the Catholic Church from its settlement obligations to residential school survivors.

"I am as puzzled as everyone," Miller, who previously served as Indigenous services minister, told The Canadian Press in a recent, wide-ranging interview.

"I don't know what there is to do yet."

The ruling, handed down by a Saskatchewan judge in July 2015, found a deal had been struck between the federal government and a corporation of Catholic entities. That deal released the church groups from their remaining obligations within the $79 million worth of payments and in-kind services owed to survivors under the Indian Residential School Settlement Agreement, approved in 2006.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1687 on: November 08, 2021, 09:43:33 PM »

Tory MP Marilyn Gladu is forming a "civil liberties caucus" to discuss defending antivax constituents who lost their jobs and claims it might have 30+ members soon. She denies it is an O'Toole challenge. One MP wonders if unvaxxed colleagues might be expelled if they make a scene when Parliament reconvenes. The caucus is divided in thirds between pro, anti and neutral-EOT members.

In Montreal, Valérie Plante looks set to comfortably win her rematch with Denis Coderre in Sunday's municipal election.

Seriously it seems like some Conservatives enjoy losing.  You have to be totally tone deaf politically to think this is a winning issue.  Most are tired of pandering to anti-vaxxers.  This looks bad on O'Toole as his moderation won't do any good if he cannot control the fringe elements of the party.  And to win they need to be booted out.  Yes with reform act, tough to do alone, but he can get started on it and also promise not to sign their nomination papers.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1688 on: November 09, 2021, 11:05:01 AM »

Conservative Shadow Cabinet

https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-announces-conservative-shadow-cabinet/
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MaxQue
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« Reply #1689 on: November 09, 2021, 11:21:19 AM »


More unwillingness to tackle the far-right element of the party, i.e. giving a position to Marilyn Gladu.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1690 on: November 09, 2021, 11:25:24 AM »
« Edited: November 09, 2021, 11:57:02 AM by Frank »


More unwillingness to tackle the far-right element of the party, i.e. giving a position to Marilyn Gladu. Leslyn Lewis was also left out.

I'm late to go right now, but I have to correct my error first.  That's the press release of the last Conservative Shadow cabinet, sorry.  Marilyn Gladu has been dropped, but Pierre Polievre is back in Finance.

This is the correct press release
https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-announces-new-shadow-cabinet/

Sorry for my mistake.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1691 on: November 09, 2021, 12:59:26 PM »


More unwillingness to tackle the far-right element of the party, i.e. giving a position to Marilyn Gladu. Leslyn Lewis was also left out.

I'm late to go right now, but I have to correct my error first.  That's the press release of the last Conservative Shadow cabinet, sorry.  Marilyn Gladu has been dropped, but Pierre Polievre is back in Finance.

This is the correct press release
https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-announces-new-shadow-cabinet/

Sorry for my mistake.

Poilievre may knew the finance file well, but seems too much of a Thatcherite and not sure that sells particularly well at this point.  Yet fact Gladu and Lewis kept out says a lot and is probably a sign O'Toole is not happy with their stance on vaccines.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1692 on: November 09, 2021, 02:02:11 PM »

Tory MP Marilyn Gladu is forming a "civil liberties caucus" to discuss defending antivax constituents who lost their jobs and claims it might have 30+ members soon. She denies it is an O'Toole challenge. One MP wonders if unvaxxed colleagues might be expelled if they make a scene when Parliament reconvenes. The caucus is divided in thirds between pro, anti and neutral-EOT members.

In Montreal, Valérie Plante looks set to comfortably win her rematch with Denis Coderre in Sunday's municipal election.

Seriously it seems like some Conservatives enjoy losing.  You have to be totally tone deaf politically to think this is a winning issue.  Most are tired of pandering to anti-vaxxers.  This looks bad on O'Toole as his moderation won't do any good if he cannot control the fringe elements of the party.  And to win they need to be booted out.  Yes with reform act, tough to do alone, but he can get started on it and also promise not to sign their nomination papers.

If Gladu actually has 30 MP's like she claims, that would form a caucus bigger than the NDP. Even if its half that, it's still a large enough bloc to get recognition in the House for themselves or the PPC. Recall that it only took a dozen MP's leaving/being kicked out to force Stockwell Day to hold a leadership election.

I'm not so sure hardball is the best response for O'Toole if Gladu actually has numbers (a big if). It could very well lead to his ouster.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1693 on: November 09, 2021, 02:03:33 PM »

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank. Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1694 on: November 09, 2021, 03:37:34 PM »

Gary Burrill has resigned as leader of the Nova Scotia NDP after this summer's lacklustre result.

In terms of leadership contenders, just about everyone on caucus could plausibly be the new leader.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1695 on: November 09, 2021, 09:14:05 PM »
« Edited: November 10, 2021, 12:02:46 AM by Frank »

For the Conservative Shadow Cabinet, Shannon Stubbs has also been dropped outright.

For any leadership race, it's possible Marilyn Gladu, Leslyn Lewis and Shannon Stubbs would all be rather pissing outside the tent than pissing inside it.

To be sure, this isn't necessarily technically accurate as Justin Trudeau has officially done away with Junior Ministers and I'm not completely sure which ministers have departments and which ministers are under the departments of other ministers, but I break down my junior and senior cabinet ministers based on historical junior and senior ministers.

So, this is mine: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=316424.msg8278685#msg8278685

The Ministry of Economic Development has been dropped in favor of bringing back the regional economic development portfolios.  Also, it seems the Conservatives don't have a separate Intergovernmental Affairs Shadow Minister as the Liberals made Dominic Leblanc both the Intergovernmental Affairs and Infrastructure and Communities Minister.

These are the newly elected M.Ps appointed to shadow what I count as the Senior Ministry
1.National Revenue, Jake Stewart, New Brunswick
2.Fisheries, Oceans and Coast Guard, Rick Perkins, Nova Scotia
3.Transport, Melissa Lantsman, Ontario
4.Families, Children and Social Development, Laila Goodridge, Alberta
5.Veterans Affairs (and Associate Defence) Frank Caputo, British Columbia

Interesting that the Conservative who won the riding of South Shore-St Margaret's has been made the Fisheries, Oceans and Coast Guard Shadow Minister, I hope the Conservatives aren't going to demagogue the native/non native standoff.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1696 on: November 09, 2021, 09:32:50 PM »
« Edited: November 09, 2021, 09:51:06 PM by Frank »

Very few shadow ministers remain in the same positions as in the last shadow cabinet appointed in February 2021.  It's possible that Erin O'Toole might be trying to have his shadow ministers serve in a variety of positions.

These are the ones who keep their previous critic roles
1.Environment, Dan Albas
2.Infrastructure and Communities, Andrew Scheer
3.Public Services and Procurement, Pierre Paul Hus
4.Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, Jasraj Singh Hallan
5.International Development, Garnett Genuis (but 'Human Rights' is no longer specified)
6.Foreign Affairs, Michael Chong
7.Justice and Attorney General, Rob Moore
8.House Leader, Gerard Deltell, (not really a 'critic role' to be sure)

Jamie Schmale and Gary Vidal flip over as Indigenous Services and Crown-Indigenous Relations Shadow Ministers.

Dan Albas is interesting.  He had been something of a global warming denier.  It seems he's tied his political future to Erin O'Toole.

Dropped from what I consider senior cabinet critic roles outright are:
1.Warren Steinley
2.Tracy Gray
3.Mark Strahl (apparently also something of a Covid denier)
4.Phillip Lawrence
5.Greg McLean
6.Lianne Rood
7.Richard Bragdon
8.Corey Tochor
9.Chris D'Entremont
10.Alain Reyes (but promoted to Quebec Lieutenant)
11.John Brassard
12.James Bezan (given the position of question period coordinator among other things.  He was first elected in 2004 and has been involved with the Defence Ministry pretty much the entire time as committee chair, parliamentary secretary and shadow minister, it's possible this is his last term.)
13.Shannon Stubbs

I haven't looked to see which of the others have been shifted to what I consider to be more junior roles.

13 previous shadow ministers were dropped, 2 shadow ministries were dropped and five newly elected M.Ps got into the 'senior' shadow cabinet, so six incumbent M.Ps must have been added. They are:

1.Kelly McAuley (male), Alberta
2.Randy Hoback, Saskatchewan
3.Scott Aitchison, Ontario
4.John Barlow, Alberta
5.John Nater, Ontario, Heritage (interesting the Conservatives giving the position to a non Quebecer)

6.Kerry Lynne  Findlay in Defence.  Interesting her return to the shadow cabinet.  She was the Revenue Minister under Stephen Harper from 2011-2015 and had a number of controversies due to her almost certainly illegal audits of environmental organizations. She was defeated in 2015 but reelected in 2019.  Her highest profile action since that time was to retweet a conspiracy theory involving George Soros.
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Benjamin Frank
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« Reply #1697 on: November 09, 2021, 09:40:46 PM »

Gary Burrill has resigned as leader of the Nova Scotia NDP after this summer's lacklustre result.

In terms of leadership contenders, just about everyone on caucus could plausibly be the new leader.

It's not like I know anything, but based on having higher profiles than the average New Democrat, I could also see these defeated candidates in the last provincial election run for the leadership:

1.Cheryl Burbidge (also ran federally)
2.Mercedes Brian
3.Alison Smith
4.Abby Cameron
5.Joanne Hussey
6.Colter Simmonds
7.John Morgan

Maybe former MLA and narrowly defeated federal candidate Lisa Roberts as well.
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CumbrianLefty
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« Reply #1698 on: November 10, 2021, 10:38:13 AM »

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank. Tongue

So how safe would you say O'Toole's position is overall after the election?
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mileslunn
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« Reply #1699 on: November 10, 2021, 01:55:59 PM »

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank. Tongue

So how safe would you say O'Toole's position is overall after the election?

Its a toss up.  Basically party is split in thirds

Right wing base - They want O'Toole dumped as feel he wasn't conservative enough and feel party needs to move right to excite voters on right so more show up.  Otherwise no interest in appealing to swing voters, its all about turning about base.

O'Toole Loyalists - They support O'Toole and feel he deserves a second shot

On the fence - These are mostly moderates who worry if O'Toole dumped, next leader will be too far right to win, but at same time feel O'Toole has been too soft on the more right wing elements in caucus and that is holding party back.
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