France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[Lechasseur]

Polling for the Paris Mayoral Election next year, Hidalgo leads in the first round, LREM are not far off and the LR are falling in the polls:

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/sondage-sur-les-municipales-a-paris-les-quatre-eneignements-a-retenir-3879311?Echobox=1553419279&fbclid=IwAR0tNycrBb695X8_5IjTVlkdyFA6ZMLY7bLKQHmm2h29woAqjXkVScNAE5E#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

Hidalgo leads in the first round, with the LREM candidate right behind her (24% and 22% respectively), and LR have lost a lot of support in the capital (polling at 16%) in the last couple of years: Fillon did much better in 2017 (he got 26% of the vote, 6 points above his national average), and NKM did to when she ran for mayor 5 years ago (she got around 35% of the vote).

All other candidates are well behind these 3. My prediction is either Hidalgo wins a second term or LREM take Paris City Hall, but I really can't see anyone else winning.

And I think this trend should be very worrying for LR, who have lost a huge chunk of their support in Paris and over half their support nationally since 2017 (for Paris though it doesn't help that it looks like the LR are going to be running a pretty divisive Sarkozy loyalist as their top candidate).

[Lechasseur]

Hidalgo leads in the first round, with the LREM candidate right behind her (24% and 22% respectively), and LR have lost a lot of support in the capital (polling at 16%) in the last couple of years: Fillon did much better in 2017 (he got 26% of the vote, 6 points above his national average), and NKM did to when she ran for mayor 5 years ago (she got around 35% of the vote).

It's also a dreadful result for LREM, which is perhaps even more surprising than LR's bad numbers - FBM won over 34% in Paris in 2017, his best result of any department, and given that LREM is holding up relatively fine all things considered in EP polling (23%, which may imply up to 10 points higher in Paris). The reason, according to this poll's crosstabs, is that a lot of Macron's 2017 voters would support Hidalgo or EELV - which isn't too surprising, given that a lot of Macron's 2017 voters in Paris (and elsewhere) came from the 'moderate' left (Flanby et al. 2012).

And I think this trend should be very worrying for LR, who have lost a huge chunk of their support in Paris and over half their support nationally since 2017 (for Paris though it doesn't help that it looks like the LR are going to be running a pretty divisive Sarkozy loyalist as their top candidate).

Nothing is settled about the LR (or macronista) candidacy yet. Dati has a lot of enemies in the Parisian right (which is always in the midst of various internal conflicts and dramatic intrigues), who will probably do everything in their power to prevent her from being the party's candidate. Florence Berthout, the LR mayor of the 5th arrondissement, hasn't made her intentions public but she is also said to be interested by the mayoral candidacy - and she could, perhaps, be a better candidate than Dati, who is lousy (and lazy) and incompetent. The poll tested one scenario with Berthout and despite, I imagine, lower name recognition, she polls only 2 points less than Dati.

Also to note that Pierre-Yves Bournazel, the Agir ('constructifs') deputy and city councillor in the 18th arrdt. (running as a consensual, wishy-washy centrist/centre-right candidate), is polling 6-7% in all scenarios in which Dati is the candidate, and is also capturing a lot of votes from the right (and, to a lesser extent, macronismo). Interestingly, he drops to 4.5% in the matchup with Berthout, which suggests to me that Dati is pushing away more moderate/centre-right voters. According to the crosstabs, Dati is only holding a bit under half of Fillon 2017 voters, with 22% going LREM and 18% going for Bournazel.

Anyway, this is all a bit silly and meaningless so far out, especially given the decomposed dumpster fire that is the current French party system. It also doesn't take into account that Paris (and Lyon/Marseille) has a special electoral system in municipal election so it isn't actually a straight city-wide contest. The only sort of conclusion I'd draw from these numbers is that they presage a real hot mess.

Tbh I don't think the polls are that bad for LREM. Anne Hidalgo is a fairly popular incumbent (or at least more so than her party in general, at least that's the impression I get as a provincial), and like you said, a large chunk of LREM's support comes from the moderate left (and I'd argue that in 2017 LREM's voters were a coalition of moderate socialists and Juppé supporters: the right only started going to Macron after he became president) so it's no surprise they're backing Hidalgo. On the other hand I still suspect these voters will continue backing LREM in other elections (I think they'll vote LREM at the European Elections in May, for example).

Yeah, at anyrate I hope the LR nominate Berthout, I can't stand Dati and I think even most LR voters (those who are not Sarkozy loyalists) can't either. Berthout clearly can't be worse at anyrate.

Yeah that is true, but at anyrate with their current polling I think LR will lose a lot of arrondissements, I think the question is who picks them up between the PS and LREM.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.nouvelobs.com/politique/20190410.OBS11370/marion-marechal-le-positionnement-populiste-semble-etre-une-impasse-electorale.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1Ui0FuyQEWhmmNfpSX8Tr2TF_KIv7UyozuxL9Yq9hl6RBQx_B1mmmFkA4#Echobox=1554911394

Marion's right, the RN won't win while they remain more "populist" than they are "conservative", the only way forward for both RN and LR is a union of the right, they can't win without the other; 2012 and 2017 both proved that.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/jean-marie-le-pen-juge-jeudi-pour-detention-illegale-d-armes-10-04-2019-2307065_20.php?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&Echobox=1554931512&fbclid=IwAR3sGHw89aqu8_RBg3ocphkWUDvcSN5SQ0LDSZ1coBA-SDq2ok_ms-GsniY#xtor=CS1-31-%5BEchobox%5D

Jean-Marie Le Pen has been charged with illegal weapon possession.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.nouvelobs.com/politique/20190411.OBS11403/anne-hidalgo-veut-experimenter-a-paris-le-vote-des-16-ans.html?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR31voCG-9Tx48rmE-sUWtfoZaH81lsPv4zcslebMA1hDKsfTAN4-ToMUw4#Echobox=1554969902

Anne Hidalgo, the Mayor of Paris, wants to experiment with having 16 and 17 year olds living in Paris vote in the European elections next month.

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/nicolas-sarkozy-est-la-personnalite-politique-la-plus-appreciee-des-francais-7797483523?fbclid=IwAR00j14Jyp-dcpOI297ue7A-ppLukLctwgMNASwopaaa0Efni3Spw1I_Dh0

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/nicolas-sarkozy-est-la-personnalite-politique-la-plus-appreciee-des-francais-7797483523?fbclid=IwAR00j14Jyp-dcpOI297ue7A-ppLukLctwgMNASwopaaa0Efni3Spw1I_Dh0

Is Sarko toying with another run?

He hasn't said anything recently, but I think Laurent Wauquiez will be removed as LR leader before the next election and Sarkozy will replace him and thus run for president again. The LR bench is really bad, Sarkozy would be the best candidate LR could run imo.

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

How did that happen?

Because our political class is like, really bad now?

[Lechasseur]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

How did that happen?

And I think especially on the right there's a lot of nostalgia for him, as the Sarkozy years were better than what followed and he's the only competent leader (who was actually right wing) the right has had since like 1995 or so.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.la-couronne.org/actualite-royale/comte-de-paris-au-coeur-de-la-reconciliation-entre-la-france-et-litalie/?fbclid=IwAR2pc6qrK2PptX69fUfN2mk8oOQY9yt2qDZj7W3n7NSZDrCwYknnsgU_HYk

The Count of Paris welcomes Emmanuel Macron at the Château d'Amboise haha

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/si-emmanuel-macron-pense-a-gauche-pourquoi-levoit-on-adroite-3896416?Echobox=1556872848&fbclid=IwAR2Qv9MzJB9xVBBvLdcstGk2jy7eyYIjllZFnfiuZYZjdyQxu6DXXDRWBaY#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

"If Macrons considers himself to be progressive, why is he seen as rightwing?"

[Lechasseur]

https://www.nouvelobs.com/societe/20190503.OBS12448/les-francais-seront-consultes-sur-la-reconstruction-de-notre-dame-de-paris.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1rvzUc9-0xyukeFnuwIlLC25BON3nrJIozK1UcjNozyeO101Xs2xv_XLY#Echobox=1556899022

"The French (people) will be consulted on the reconstruction of Notre Dame"

[Lechasseur]

https://www.lejdd.fr/Politique/si-emmanuel-macron-pense-a-gauche-pourquoi-levoit-on-adroite-3896416?Echobox=1556872848&fbclid=IwAR2Qv9MzJB9xVBBvLdcstGk2jy7eyYIjllZFnfiuZYZjdyQxu6DXXDRWBaY#utm_medium=Social&xtor=CS1-3&utm_source=Facebook

"If Macrons considers himself to be progressive, why is he seen as rightwing?"

Because for the most part, he is?

Tbh he's one of those "fiscally conservative and socially liberal" types, just like his predecessor and mentor Hollande. They're basically the same thing imo. Macron is just the continuation of the Hollande presidency but even worse.

[Lechasseur]

What about the whole "abolish ENA" thing huh?

I must admit I am so torn between thinking it is an excellent idea, and thinking well, it's Macron so it's obviously a horrendous idea.

Better analysis is probably about what would replace it, and knowing what Macron's ideology is, it probably means recruiting a load of private sector types as haut fonctionnaires, with all their conflicts of interest and ideological "management" theories. Which is not exactly going to be better...

This.

Never trust Jupiter.

[Lechasseur]

  Any more details about Macron saying more proportional representation will be introduced? I'm guessing for national elections? And does it have a legitimate chance for passage?

I've heard nothing about, so it's surely going nowhere

[Lechasseur]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/culture/arts-expos/architecture/notre-dame-de-paris-les-francais-majoritairement-opposes-a-une-loi-d-exception-pour-accelerer-la-reconstruction-selon-un-sondage_3435847.html?fbclid=IwAR2SujHYEfTl6s9KqQgT0ABD9YUx53VSLHmOm_rN3cEOgResAUWZMwTZnP4

Only LREM support rebuilding Notre Dame's roof and spire with a modern design, the rest of the country wants it restored the way it was.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/europeennes-pour-marine-le-pen-macron-devra-partir-si-sa-liste-arrive-derriere-le-rassemblement-national-1688782.html?fbclid=IwAR3uhameW3nyt6uX3qWrYYIQqcyW1jLmSYxOyMc5OiJ6fFadppniiGxRHwk

"European Elections: For Marine Le Pen, Macron will have to leave if his lists finishes behind the RN"

[Lechasseur]

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/macron-il-veut-transformer-les-europeennes-en-referendum-selon-mazerolle-7797602994?fbclid=IwAR1cMEingmdxLTQmpQXLfE-wFD_VJ4KkUwtMPJVsPWek4osyyVdY4J3O5Hk

Macron wants the European elections to be a referendum on him and his policies.

[Lechasseur]

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/notre-dame-hidalgo-veut-une-renovation-a-l-identique-de-la-toiture-et-la-charpente-20190526?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3-GdnN9xkldBg737CTQuitbgQ5Dgr5KplKfcPEWA383vvJY2u3Nk8c5L8#Echobox=1558869035

Even the PS mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, wants Notre Dame restored identically to how it was before. Jupiter needs to listen.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/video/les-republicains-le-retour-de-nicolas-sarkozy-demande-apres-l-echec-aux-elections-europeennes-1165087.html?fbclid=IwAR1LLa6YPv_IxfsAYqevkF8GIgGrPX-F2PcbIZ0-s1Sjy1pnyJiZ20QT7WY

An increasing amount of LR voters and activists are asking for Sarkozy's return.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.thelocal.fr/20190528/french-senate-says-notre-dame-must-be-restored-exactly-to-how-it-was?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&fbclid=IwAR2aFFGIb_O1rjm5Lv9kBbmzI4MxbFg41O0HcYs29j8MnTdYf71jDhrSg8E

The French Senate says Notre Dame must be restored exactly how it was

[Lechasseur]

Laurent Wauquiez resigns as leader of LR.

You beat me to it

[Lechasseur]

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/marion-marechal-le-rn-est-indispensable-a-la-vie-politique-mais-pas-suffisant-7797757739?fbclid=IwAR35Ns8BFkmT-i1fxiBs11fGghI-3CX5qC1jt193ZHRmux6PuqzH2hWgAdg

Marion Maréchal-Le Pen calls for a "grand coalition" between RN and the "popular right", considering that neither can make it on their own.

[Lechasseur]

Really, I think LR's existential crisis is much worse than the PS's right now. As in there is always going to be a left-wing vote, as evidenced by the fact that, despite the complete éclatenent of the left, they still got 35% combined at the Euro elections; and neither LFI or EELV really seem to offer enough to go the whole way (as in both Mélenchon and the greens have blown it in the past...).

While LR are stuck between a Macron who has sucked up pretty much all of the traditional "right" vote and RN. As in, they were barely eve above average in the ex-Catholic departments in the West. So who even votes for them any more? a handful of bcbg cathos in the Hauts-de-Seine, Yvelines and rich suburbs of Lyon and Paris?

Good question. At anyrate up here I actually knew very few under 50s who voted for Macron in 2017. In my "social circle" there was a 3 way split between Fillon, Le Pen and Melenchon voters. I kind of lost interest in French politics after the election so I don't really ask my friends about it anymore, but I'd imagine the Fillon supporters I know are now split between RN and LREM.

At anyrate what I do know is us ex-LR supporters/reluctant LR supporters are all sick and tired of the factionalism, backstabbing and opportunism in LR, and I think that's lost the party a lot of its support, arguably more than being "sandwiched" between Macron and Le Pen.

[Lechasseur]

Really, I think LR's existential crisis is much worse than the PS's right now. As in there is always going to be a left-wing vote, as evidenced by the fact that, despite the complete éclatenent of the left, they still got 35% combined at the Euro elections; and neither LFI or EELV really seem to offer enough to go the whole way (as in both Mélenchon and the greens have blown it in the past...).

While LR are stuck between a Macron who has sucked up pretty much all of the traditional "right" vote and RN. As in, they were barely eve above average in the ex-Catholic departments in the West. So who even votes for them any more? a handful of bcbg cathos in the Hauts-de-Seine, Yvelines and rich suburbs of Lyon and Paris?

At anyrate you're probably basically right on who still votes LR, +those same demographics in a few other areas where they're present like in the wealthy suburbs of Lille.