France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

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Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election, first round

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 28%
Jadot: 12%
Mélenchon: 9%
Wauquiez: 8%
Dupont-Aignan: 5%
Faure: 4%

https://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-intentions-de-vote-presidentielle-Macron-et-Le-Pen-largement-en-tete-au-premier-tour-1627135

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Laurent Wauquiez resigns as leader of LR.

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We had 2 polls for the next presidential election

Elabe:


Ifop:

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Not really.

The government abandons this measure if the unions can find an alternative by April, if they don't this measure will be enforced.

And it was the most controversial because Macron always said during the presidential campaign and even a few months ago that he will not raise the retirement age but it's not the most important aspect of the pension reform.

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Presidential election, Ifop poll

Baroin as LR candidate
Le Pen 28%
Macron 26%
Baroin 12%
Mélenchon 11%
Jadot 8%
Dupont-Aignan 5.5%


Bertrand as LR candidate
Macron 28%
Le Pen 27%
Bertrand 12%
Mélenchon 12%
Jadot 8%
Dupont-Aignan 5%

Second round
Macron 55%
Le Pen 45%

https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/117452-Rapport.pdf

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The Fillions found guilty of embezzling public funds.
François Fillion is sentenced to 5 years in jail (three years suspended) and €375,000 fine, his wife Penelope is sentenced to three suspended years and a €375,000 fine.
Fillion's assistant, Marc Joulaud, is sentenced to three suspended years and a €20,000 fine.
The three must also reimburse more than 1 million euros to the National Assembly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/francois-fillon-found-guilty-of-embezzling-public-funds

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Another presidential election poll, this one from Elabe.

1- Bertrand as LR candidate (without Faure)
Macron: 30% (31%)
Le Pen: 27.5% (26.5%)
Mélenchon: 12.5% (12.5%)
Jadot: 8.5% (9%)
Dupont-Aignan: 5% (5.5%)
Faure: 2.5% (-)

2- Baroin as LR candidate (without Faure)
Macron: 31% (31%)
Le Pen: 24.5% (26.5%)
Baroin: 12% (11%)
Mélenchon: 11,5% (12.5%)
Jadot: 8,5% (10%)
Dupont-Aignan: 5.5% (5%)
Faure: 2.5% (-)

Second round
Macron: 58.5%
Le Pen: 41.5%

57% want Philippe to stay as PM

52% want Macron to significantly change his policies (-5)
39% want some few changes (+8)
8% want no change (-3)

The top priorities for the French are:
The economic recovery: 65%
Health: 47%
Inequality: 29%
Environment: 25%
Security: 25%

https://elabe.fr/lexecutif_apres_les_municipales/

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The Presidential Palace announces a "new" Prime Minister in the next few hours.

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Assume that Edouard Philippe, being a) French and b) a politician, has presidential ambitions though, and that may have played a role.

I don't understand where this idea of Philippe having presidential ambitions came from. It's pretty clear that he has none, at least for 2022.
Obviously political journalists love to speculate, and apparently Philippe wants to clarify things on this subject: he will work, at Macron's request, on the reorganization of the majority for 2022. He is not going to run against Macron.

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The new government has been announced, for the major changes:

- Eric Dupont-Moretti, a high profile lawyer, is the new Justice minister
- Roselyne Bachelot, deeply unpopular after her handling of the H1N1 flu of 2009, now praised for that, is the new Culture minister.
- Gérald Darmanin is now the Interior minister.
- Barbara Pompelli is the new minister for the ecological transition

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And it's not the only controversy created by an EELV mayor. The new mayor of Bordeaux faced a backlash after his decision to remove all Christmas trees in the city, there is also a heated debate with the implementation of the 5G, ...

As a result the party's favorability has fallen quite a bit. According to an Odoxa poll 43% have a favorable opinion of EELV, down from 57% in February. Still, they remain the most popular political party.

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https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

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https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

I frankly don't believe the polls, and I don't think a lot of these politicians do either (I suspect the real meaning is "we don't like him, but he's less bad than Le Pen; a dynamic Hollande never had as his main opposition was LR rather than FN). Actually go talk to real people in the street and find someone who like's Macron. Yeah, that's what I thought. I don't know a single person who approves of him anymore (my dad used to be his biggest fan but even he can't stand him anymore).

Because your friends and family are a better representation of the French people than a sample built by a pollster?

Plus, in the intention de vote polls, which I think are closer to reality than these approval polls, Macron's doing pretty poorly for a sitting president and is in striking distance from other parties.

At this point Macron is polling at the same level or even a little bit better than Chirac in 2001 (23-24%), better than Sarkozy in 2011 (18%-24%), and way better than Hollande in 2016 (16-18%).

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Bertrand announces his candidacy for the presidency. He will not run for the LR primary.

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An IFOP/JDD poll for the presidential election, with all kind of scenarios.

Basically Macron and Le Pen around 25%.
LR between 6 and 16% (Bertrand at 16%, Pécresse at 11%, Wauquiez at 7%, Retailleau at 6%)
Mélenchon around 12%
PS candidate between 5 and 7% (Hidalgo at 7%, Montebourg at 5%)
EELV candidate between 2 and 7% (Piolle at 2%, Jadot at 7%)

A single candidacy for PS and EELV would only get around 10% (10% for Hidalgo, 9% for Jadot), in these scenarios Bertrand reaches 20%.

In the second round Macron, Bertrand and Pécresse would beat Le Pen (54% for Macron, 59% for Bertrand, 55% for Pécresse).
No left-wing candidate would be in position to beat Le Pen (Hidalgo 50 / Le Pen 50, Jadot 47 / Le Pen 53, Mélenchon 40 / Le Pen 60).

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Another poll (Elabe/BFMTV) with roughly the same findings.

Le Pen 26-28%
Macron 25-27%
Bertrand 15% / Pécresse 9%
Mélenchon 11%
Jadot 6%
Hidalgo 5%

Second round : Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

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Re that Ifop poll, I would note that Bertrand/Pécresse's (and to a lesser extent Méluche/the left more widely) age crosstabs are... eye opening. Especially Bertrand's

Where does Bertrand's support come from? Is it the same as Fillon (old, wealthy, Catholic)?

Yes, but weaker.
28% of 65 and older support Bertrand, it was 40% for Fillon. He is polling very low with young people (4% among 35 and young, it was 12% for Fillon), 26% of people earning more than €2,500/month would vote for him, 1% of those earning less than €900.
Macron has a homogeneous support across the population (27% among people younger than 25, 20% among blue-collar voters and unemployed, 29% of people earning more than €2,500, 20% among those earning less than €900).
Le Pen's strengths are among blue collar voters (43%), rural voters (41%), people with a high school graduate (34%), low income voters (33%). Her weakness remains with older voters (12% among 65 and more), people with a master degree (12%), people with high income (12%), and people living in the Paris region (11%).
Mélenchon is weak among old people (6%) but has a homogeneous support until that age, also weak with people with high income. He has is strengths among people with low income (around 20%), unemployed (18%).

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With one year to go before the presidential election we had two more polls

Harris Interactive with basically the same findings than the others
Le Pen and Macron at 26%, Bertrand at 15%, Mélenchon at 11%, Jadot and Hidalgo at 6%

Ipsos with a large sample (10,000 people)
Le Pen : 26% (27% with Pécresse, 28% with Retailleau)
Macron : 25% (27% with Pécresse, 29% with Retailleau)
Bertrand : 16% (11% Pécresse, 8% Retailleau)
Jadot : 10%
Hidalgo : 8-9%
Mélenchon : 8%

In the second round Macron would defeat Le Pen with 57% and Bertrand with 52%, Bertrand would defeat Le Pen with 61%.