France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[Zinneke]

Nicolas Sarkozy is the most popular politician in the country:

https://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/nicolas-sarkozy-est-la-personnalite-politique-la-plus-appreciee-des-francais-7797483523?fbclid=IwAR00j14Jyp-dcpOI297ue7A-ppLukLctwgMNASwopaaa0Efni3Spw1I_Dh0

[Zinneke]

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election, first round

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 28%
Jadot: 12%
Mélenchon: 9%
Wauquiez: 8%
Dupont-Aignan: 5%
Faure: 4%

https://www.parismatch.com/Actu/Politique/Sondage-intentions-de-vote-presidentielle-Macron-et-Le-Pen-largement-en-tete-au-premier-tour-1627135

The Greens becoming the main alternative of the French left would be a wonderful twist.

Well they have JLM to thank for that.

[Zinneke]

As much as I agree with you, Antonio, I do think the semi-presidential system the Vth Republic ought to incarnate allows French people to give a general direction to their foreign policy through a Presidential figure well versed enough in the matter, while domestic issues are represented in their local elected official. Given its a nuclear power and now the only EU state with an army capable of deploying and occupying territory for a sustained period of time, France very much needs a captain and not a referee, which is what we'd have in a pure parliamentary system. You can't have a minor party dictate military affairs and collapse governments in it like they had in the Netherlands.  

The mistake was the 5 term Presidency which also implied holding legislative elections immediately after Presidential ones. If France separate the legislative from the executive in electoral terms too there would be a counterweight to any excess Presidentialism.

[Zinneke]

French far-left leader Mélenchon sentenced for intimidation

Will he follow his mantra of "non-condemned people shouldn't stand in elections"?

[Zinneke]

Édouard Philippe deciding to 49.3 the pension reform is worth marking surely? Nothing like taking advantage of people being distracted in order to override the concepts of representative democracy.

Have to agree with Bruce Joel here, the issue is the amendments that the opposition deliberately used to sabotage the legislative process and create a pantomine show so they can also do their silly flashmobs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBQX6hjLtRE

MalaiseTV


But yeah, right now the French opposition strategy is to make sure the Gillets Jaunes, the protests, all of that, continue thanks to their stalling efforts. They have no interest in actually influencing policy because they are touching themselves at the idea of prolonged social unrest in France.

[Zinneke]

Macron has lost his majority due to several left-wing LREM deputies forming their own independent group : Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity. This is the 9th group in the Assemblée - a record for the Fifth Republic.
They are headed by amongst others Cédric Villani, the mathematician and old dissident LREM candidate in Paris who was snubbed by Macron for Griveaux the arrogant DSK padawan who had his meat and two veg all over the internet and dropped out in disgrace.
I have no idea if they will stand in any election or if this is just a sort of "Independent Group for Change" style party that will not be able to federate.

This may be symbolic but it still makes Macron look weak. The French Right in particular is smelling blood with Edouard Phillippe waiting in the PM seat, and suggestions that he now has as much executive power as the sitting President (French politics is controlled by Macron and his adviser and Phillippe and his advisor - the "Party" EM founded in his name has essentially no oversight). Remember Macron, by stabbing Hollande and the PS establishment in the back, has no defense if his own inner circle decide to do the same to him.
 
Problem is, a lot of the French Right also think Fillon only lost because of his scandal, and that there are FN votes up for grabs if they run another right-winger who baits the Left and cosies up to reactionary Catholics.


Macron is playing a trump card of sorts by trying to re-energise the Franco-German relationship and show himself as more of a statesman. The dynamics of Macron-Merkel are going to be interesting but that's for another time.

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

Bayrou has long been an advocate for a proportional electoral system for deputies, so I wonder if he'll negotiate for it in exchange for his support of the upcoming constitutional reform that Macron wants.

I don't think so because he already negotiated his support for Macron and got what he wanted.

[Zinneke]

Macron has lost his majority due to several left-wing LREM deputies forming their own independent group : Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity. This is the 9th group in the Assemblée - a record for the Fifth Republic.
They are headed by amongst others Cédric Villani, the mathematician and old dissident LREM candidate in Paris who was snubbed by Macron for Griveaux the arrogant DSK padawan who had his meat and two veg all over the internet and dropped out in disgrace.
I have no idea if they will stand in any election or if this is just a sort of "Independent Group for Change" style party that will not be able to federate.

This may be symbolic but it still makes Macron look weak. The French Right in particular is smelling blood with Edouard Phillippe waiting in the PM seat, and suggestions that he now has as much executive power as the sitting President (French politics is controlled by Macron and his adviser and Phillippe and his advisor - the "Party" EM founded in his name has essentially no oversight). Remember Macron, by stabbing Hollande and the PS establishment in the back, has no defense if his own inner circle decide to do the same to him.
 
Problem is, a lot of the French Right also think Fillon only lost because of his scandal, and that there are FN votes up for grabs if they run another right-winger who baits the Left and cosies up to reactionary Catholics.


Macron is playing a trump card of sorts by trying to re-energise the Franco-German relationship and show himself as more of a statesman. The dynamics of Macron-Merkel are going to be interesting but that's for another time.

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

Bayrou has long been an advocate for a proportional electoral system for deputies, so I wonder if he'll negotiate for it in exchange for his support of the upcoming constitutional reform that Macron wants.

I don't think so because he already negotiated his support for Macron and got what he wanted.

Do you think  macron lose re-election

Way too early to speculate in Covid-19 world.

Right now his greatest asset is Marine Le Pen.

For me the scenarios where he loses are :

1. Edouard Phillippe announces he is running. Gets broad LR support. Three way race between essentially 3 right-wing politicians and Phillippe edges Macron to take on Le Pen. Wins second round. Is President. Continues Macron legacy without Macron.

2. Macron stays on, runs on the centre-right, but Le Pen is cut at the knees internally leading to a split far right. The hard right of the LR profits from this collapse and comfortably wins the first and second round. The only issue with this scenario : who exactly on the hard right is distinguishing themselves as Presidential material? Wauquiez and Bellamy were both terrible presidents and lead candidates of the party respectively.

3. The left actually unite in the first round, which is not an impossibility despite the many egos; and given how split the Right and Center could be, do a reverse 2002 and stuns a Macron on 20-22%. Right-wing candidate goes on to win vs united Left.

4. We slowly descend into peak idiocracy and Joachim Son-Forget is elected by such a landslide in the first round there is no second one.


One thing Macron has done though, and it remains to be seen if this is a good or bad idea, is effectively tried to polarize the debate between his centre ground and the FN/FI souverainisme. He loves the fact that a prominent philospher like Michel Onfray is trying to unite intelllectually all the anti-EU, anti-globalist Right and Left. Its exactly the cleavage he wants to dominate French politics. He's left little space electorally for the old PS-LR and their favoured cleavages and old "traditional  local vote" model by virtue of his victory alone, which whether you like him or not one must recognised is one of the more remarkable revolutionary achievements and turning points in the French Fifth Republic.

Remains to be seen how Covid-19 affects things.

[Zinneke]

One thing Macron has done though, and it remains to be seen if this is a good or bad idea, is effectively tried to polarize the debate between his centre ground and the FN/FI souverainisme. He loves the fact that a prominent philospher like Michel Onfray is trying to unite intelllectually all the anti-EU, anti-globalist Right and Left. Its exactly the cleavage he wants to dominate French politics. He's left little space electorally for the old PS-LR and their favoured cleavages and old "traditional  local vote" model by virtue of his victory alone, which whether you like him or not one must recognised is one of the more remarkable revolutionary achievements and turning points in the French Fifth Republic.

Thing is, you say this, and Macron clearly wants it, and the more tedious and pompous elements of the French media have been pushing this for years and years, but... it remains the case that the Macron presidency has been marked, up until now, by contestation over social issues (and I'm using the term the way it is used in French here). That is, things like the gilets jaunes, the cheminot status reforms, the pension reforms, the hospital reforms (and now the marked impact of Covid on social inequalities) have been the dominating themes. All of these are traditional bread-and-butter left v right issues, and the questions over sovereignty or immigration have falled off the agenda. Add to that, Macron's 2019 electorate was very much a traditional centre-right electorate composed principally of the highly educated, the wealthy, the elderly, the rich suburbs of the big cities and the old catholic vote in places like the Grand-Ouest and Alsace. An impressively like for like replica in fact.

So a pretentious navel gazing intellectual like Onfray, the type of guy the French oh so love to produce way too many of, can have his little pet project with his boring, has been old friends like Chevènement and De Villiers; but he isn't going to make the fact that the French don't like the fact they are getting poorer go away as an issue.

And yet these contestations have expressed themselves outside the Left vs Right spectrum, instead polarising between pro and anti-Macron forces. Macron has put himself at the center of French politics in a way only De Gaulle has done in the Vth Republic, and his doctrine can only be described as Macronism.

The Gillets Jaunes are proof of that. They refused the right vs left label from the go and they totally are the kind of people to listen to Onfray, Zemmour, etc and polarise the debate between the "Maastricthian neo-liberal state dominating us from central Paris, incarnated by Macron" vs them. They are the culmination of years of media grooming as you rightly put it. Where is the centre-left? Nowhere to be seen.
 And yeah, the centre-right formed around Macron, with the notable exception of a whole host of old UMP or non-voting right-wing voters who have long grown accustomed to vote FN in the first round, because the idea that FN's new voters since JMLP left the scene are entirely old-PCF/PS ones has been debunked. Macron is still only on 22% so nowhere near Sarkozy 2007 when the right and centre-right performed to its peak.

[Zinneke]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

I doubt it will be Hanouna. But with Bigard already throwing his hat in the ring and withdrawing it you really get the sense that a Coluche-style candidate is dying to ride the anti-political wave. Son-Forget, somebody you will likely be familiar with, is perhaps in pole position.

I also think, while ruling out people like Zemmour and Onfray, eventually one of the famous talking heads/chroniqueurs of French politics will also throw their hat into the ring and do 10-15 per cent.

I think Macron's greatest fear though, before Panzergirl and whatever clown decides to run on behalf of all the Monsieur Blancs of France, is his own PM. After all Macron himself stabbed his own President in the back. And Philippe is somewhat more popular than Macron was as finance minister.

[Zinneke]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

I doubt it will be Hanouna. But with Bigard already throwing his hat in the ring and withdrawing it you really get the sense that a Coluche-style candidate is dying to ride the anti-political wave. Son-Forget, somebody you will likely be familiar with, is perhaps in pole position.

I also think, while ruling out people like Zemmour and Onfray, eventually one of the famous talking heads/chroniqueurs of French politics will also throw their hat into the ring and do 10-15 per cent.

I think Macron's greatest fear though, before Panzergirl and whatever clown decides to run on behalf of all the Monsieur Blancs of France, is his own PM. After all Macron himself stabbed his own President in the back. And Philippe is somewhat more popular than Macron was as finance minister.

If Philippe runs would he run under LREM, LR or form a new party?

Philippe rather deliberately tried to keep his LR status and has never joined LREM as a political party.

But given how LR's internal party structure is difficult to negotiate, I don't think he would win their primary. The question is if he runs do LR back him?

Oh God, FBM winning really opened the floodgates for every third-rate celebrity to start thinking they could be the next "outsider" to win the Presidency. What a f**king time to be alive.

I think rather than Macron winning its a general disgust and a product of the very particular mediatic scene.

[Zinneke]

Edouard Philippe submits resignation of his cabinet in a likely reshuffle by the President.

[Zinneke]

Very interesting. Did Macron catch hold of Philippe's ambitions for his own Presidency? Have the two just fallen out in what must have been an incredibly stressful time as the two key decision makers (with most of the LREM "party" and cabinet frozen out). Or is it just that Philippe is not the right profile to pass a whole host of social measures for the recovery?

Also will be interesting to see where Macron swings from here. He could try and ride the Green wave but I think that would be a serious error of political judgement even by his standards. His street credit with the French Left has evaporated since he's taken the law and order approach to the Gilet Jaunes and other protests. He could also have been blackmailed by Bayrou who is now essentially keeping Macron's majority, which would explain why Macron was rumoured to be considering a dissolution of the Assembly.

Either its bizarre (but also known to be done) to dismiss your PM when the latter has high approval ratings. Its not as if Philippe will disappear from the French political scene, since he has a high profile Mayoral role and advisors aplenty.

[Zinneke]

It's like when your club is about to announce a big signing and in turns out to be a complete unknown flop. He's built his profile a little via the management of the deconfinement...but still...

One thing is for sure : Macron isn't swinging left. Castex was close to Sarkozy and Bertrand. He's a mandarin though with very little charisma or public profile. Looks like Macron wanted more media duties while his PM took care of the daily running of the country

[Zinneke]

Is it possible that Philippe runs in 2022 with LR's support ?

Yes, people have touted this. I don't think the LR appreciates the people who defected to Macron's project though.

The initial reaction from LR to the Castex appointement is visible irritation. Macron is trying to canibalize the French Republican Right.

One thing is for sure : Macron isn't swinging left

And what a shock that is.

I was an initial supporter of his from a leftist perspective : I genuinely thought he was serious about democratisation of European institutions, which if we ever want to actually run a leftwing platform on this continent again is a necessary step. I'm also a pragmatist. I don't like the Walloon/French Left obsession of always wanting to be the bad kid at the back of the class to piss off investors, or making symbolic gestures to amateurish unions. Macron's pension reforms for example, were not that controversial, and more republican. The syndicalists blocked it because they just want a labour aristocracy in France, to hell if it's not sustainable or fair. The labour standards equivalent of NIMBY.

Then Macron hit a brick wall with the German ordo-liberals and decided to crack down hard on protesters. He showed cowardice when he could thrown his weight about. He managed to renege enough on his ecological platform to lose one of his few leftwing ministers (Hulot). I think from then he realised he had crossed the Rubicon and was going to be centre -right system babby. A deeply disappointing quinquennat. The last straw was making us endure Ursula Von Der Leyen through a backroom deal, when he was previously in favour the Spitsenkandidaten. Not entirely his fault given Manfred Weber is a horrible candidate. But still...it was just a signal that he was there as a new way for the status quo to reinvent itself.

[Zinneke]

Can someone explain to someone with a limited understanding of French Politics A.) What the thinking is behind this B.) What the backstory is

Nobody knows the true backstory. Philippe's team will likely brief some journos in due course about what went on in the background but the President and PM kept all things very tight sealed during their partnership.

The thinking behind it from Macron's perspective is likely : "you, PM Nobody, run the government as a secretary, without getting involved politically about the direction of this government. I take over all the mediatic functions and campaigning, only taking executive and foreign policy decisions." Macron needs to be more seen as an election comes up. I actually tend to think the more people see Macron the more they dislike him, but that's just my foreign perspective.

Assume that Edouard Philippe, being a) French and b) a politician, has presidential ambitions though, and that may have played a role.

C.) Why he's appointed some random as PM- is this is a common thing?

Philippe's government is one of the longest lasting in Vth Republic history (after an initial resignation of Bayrou's ministers when they started out Macron's term), so it is quite common to at least have a reshuffle and also to get rid of your PM after a bad election day.

[Zinneke]

When did the French Greens turn from a joke party to a serious force?

You tell me.

Assume that Edouard Philippe, being a) French and b) a politician, has presidential ambitions though, and that may have played a role.

I don't understand where this idea of Philippe having presidential ambitions came from. It's pretty clear that he has none, at least for 2022.
Obviously political journalists love to speculate, and apparently Philippe wants to clarify things on this subject: he will work, at Macron's request, on the reorganization of the majority for 2022. He is not going to run against Macron.

Precedent I imagine : Rocard, Chaban Delmas, to name two who lost Matignon because they were perceived to be speculating against the sitting President.

[Zinneke]

Benalla trolling hard...



Indeed this buys into all the rumours that Macron has recently been consulting Sarkozy for advice during the crisis and beyond...

[Zinneke]

Castex's first "surprise visit" media stunt was to a police station, which shows you how sh**t-scared the French political class are of the police unions compared to the hospital workers. Priorities.

[Zinneke]

Full Cabinet :

Jean-Yves Le Drian : ministre de l'Europe et des Affaires étrangères,

Barbara Pompili : ministre de la Transition écologique,

Jean-Michel Blanquer : ministre de l'Education nationale, de la Jeunesse et des Sports,

Bruno Le Maire : ministre de l'Economie, des finances et de la relance,

Florence Parly : ministre des Armées,

Gérald Darmanin : ministre de l'Intérieur,

Elisabeth Borne : ministre du Travail, de l'Emploi et de l'Insertion,

Sébastien Lecornu : ministre des Outre-mer,

Jacqueline Gourault : ministre des Territoires et des relations avec les collectivités territoriales,

Eric Dupond-Moretti : Garde des Sceaux, ministre de la Justice,

Roselyne Bachelot : ministre de la Culture,

Olivier Véran : ministre des Solidarités et de la Santé,

Annick Girardin : ministre de la Mer,

Frédérique Vidal : ministre de l'Enseignement supérieur, de la recherche et de l'innovation,

Julien Denormandie : ministre de l'Agriculture et de l'alimentation,

Amélie de Montchalin, : ministre de la Transformation et de la fonction publique,


Glad Castaner is gone and that there is a "heavyweight" at Culture now.
Dupond-Moretti though...the "peopleisation" of French politics begins...

[Zinneke]

Just a quick background check on Darmanin makes me take back what I said about Castaner. the new minister of interior sounds like a total piece of sh**t

https://twitter.com/GDarmanin/status/257080026325999617

https://twitter.com/ParisPasRose/status/864954201901760515

(Manif pour tous was the demonstration against gay marriage)

Add to that an ongoing sexual misconduct case and we have another Sarkozyste POS.

[Zinneke]

So its a mostly right leaning cabinet?

"Left" representation : Le Drian, Pompili, Parly, Véran, Girardin. Not nothing either. Although most of them are from the Manuel Valls school of Socialist thought you see...

[Zinneke]

So what shift has resulted in these changes? Has the dominant societal forces shifted to more prudishness?

More phones with cameras.

And in the case of governing instances cracking down on it : the issue is more complex. Officially it's a question of public order. French political class isn't prudish. It panders to some old conservative whingers but that's about it.

[Zinneke]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/french-reporter-who-joined-police-exposes-racism-and-violence-valentin-gendrot

[Zinneke]

Making a fuss about someone who is veiled on TV hosting a cooking show (and remember by veiled we mean face visible, might be confusing for non francophones) is really crass.

I do understand the argument of public servants having to take off any religious or cultural symbol though. It's a much more complex debate that is also happening here in Belgium.

[Zinneke]

When he started talking about separatists I was thinking Savoy, Bretagne, Occitanie, etc. I was like : Macron is actually going to give the marginal cranks inside those movements a political space by virtue of some insane Draconian law banning their flags and it's going to be a really really funny clash.

But nah it's just the Arabs again. The favourite whipping boys.