France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[Antonio the Sixth]

Le Pen usually starts polling high and loses ground over the course of the campaign. Hopefully the pattern repeats and someone else can squeak by.

For the left though, it's pretty clearly unify-or-die. Good luck convincing Melenchon to support anyone who isn't him...

[NewYorkExpress]

MP's have approved legislation that states that the age of consent in France is fifteen, except in cases of incest, in which it is eighteen.

French MPs have unanimously approved a long-awaited draft law to protect children from rape and sexual abuse.

The legislation, drawn up after a series of scandals involving high-profile figures, establishes an age of “non-consent” at 15 under which a child cannot be considered to have willingly engaged in a sexual act. In cases of incest, the age has been set at 18.

Around 300 amendments were proposed and discussed, but the law, proposed by Emmanuel Macron’s government, was passed with cross-party support.

The first article of the new law establishes that “any act of sexual penetration of whatever nature” including oral sex, committed by an adult on a person under the age of 15 is considered to be rape.

“In this way, no adult will be able to claim consent from a minor under this age of non-consent,” the minister of justice, Éric Dupond-Moretti, told the Assemblée Nationale, the lower house of the French parliament.

The penalty for rape, incestuous or not, is set at 20 years in prison.

The draft legislation, which includes new laws covering all acts of sexual assault and abuse of minors, now passes to the upper house, the Sénat, for approval.

To avoid criminalising sex between teenagers and young adults, it includes a so-called “Romeo and Juliet” clause that says punishment should only apply if the difference in age between the adult and the person under 15 is at least five years. This clause would not apply in rape or assault cases.

“I do not want to be sending a kid of 18 before a court because he had a consenting relationship with a girl of 14-and-a-half,” Dupond-Moretti said.

The legislation also proposes an extension to the statute of limitation for the rape of a minor in cases where the adult goes on to rape others, and prison sentences of 10 years and a fine of €150,000 for anyone convicted of inciting children under 15 to commit sexual acts on the internet.

The bill, which will now be considered by a committee made up of MPs and senators, is expected to be passed into law in a matter of weeks.

[John Dule]

The thirteen year old at the center of the murder of Samuel Paty admits that she lied.

Like many a school truant, the 13-year-old girl was keen to prevent her father from discovering she had been suspended because of repeatedly failing to turn up for lessons.

So she made up a story. The teenager said her history teacher, Samuel Paty, had instructed Muslim students to leave the classroom so he could show the rest “a photograph of the Prophet naked”.

It must have seemed a harmless enough lie, but it sparked a chain of events that led to unimaginable horror.

Ten days later, the teacher was dead – decapitated by a Islamist terrorist. Paty’s family were left devastated, France traumatised and the girl and her father facing criminal charges. Two other teenagers, who took money from the assassin, Abdullakh Anzorov, are also under investigation.


On Sunday, Le Parisien revealed that the girl, known only as Z, had admitted that she had wrongly accused Paty. The paper said she confessed to the investigating anti-terrorist judge that she had lied, and that she was not even in the class where Paty showed pupils controversial caricatures from the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo.

The newspaper said the girl had lied because she wanted to please her father.

“She would not have dared to confess to her father the real reasons for her exclusion shortly before the tragedy, which was in fact linked to her bad behaviour,” Le Parisien reported.

On 6 October last year, Paty, a history and geography teacher, gave a class on the subject of “dilemmas”. He posed the question “to be or not to be Charlie?”, referring to the #JeSuisCharlie hashtag used to express support for the paper after a terrorist attack on its offices in January 2015 that killed 12 people.

Paty is said to have invited Muslim pupils who thought they might be shocked to close their eyes or briefly stand in the corridor while he showed pupils a caricature of the Prophet.

Two days later, the girl told her father that Paty, 47, had asked Muslim students to leave the class before showing the caricature. She said she had expressed her disagreement with the teacher and he had suspended her from classes for two days.

After hearing the story, her outraged father, Moroccan-born Brahim Chnina, 48, shared a video on Facebook in which he denounced Paty and called for him to be sacked from the secondary school at Conflans-Sainte-Honorine. A second, equally angry video was posted on social media accusing Paty of “discrimination”.

Chnina complained to the school and the police, claiming Paty was guilty of “diffusing a pornographic image”, and sparking accusations of Islamophobia at the school.

Once set in motion, the issue snowballed on social networks and reached Anzorov, 18, a radicalised Chechen migrant living in Normandy and scouring the internet for a cause. On 16 October, Anzorov travelled to Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, paid two teenagers from the school to identify Paty as he was leaving for home on a Friday evening and beheaded him.

The lie had led to the killing of a man and father of a five-year-old boy.

The girl reportedly stuck to her story until police told her several classmates had confirmed she was not present for the lesson and that Paty had not instructed Muslim pupils to leave the class as she had claimed.

Investigators reportedly said she was suffering from an “inferiority complex” and was devoted to her father.

The good ol' religion of peace!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Le Pen usually starts polling high and loses ground over the course of the campaign. Hopefully the pattern repeats and someone else can squeak by.

No?

The polling was fairly stable in 2017, if anything, she gained a bit. Le Pen started at ~37% against Macron a year before the election, she got ~36% 3 month before and ~39% the last week before the election. She eventually ended up getting 34% in the election, though.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_French_presidential_election#Macron%E2%80%93Le_Pen




Will she be overestimated by pollsters again? May be, may be not. Personally, I think there are at least as many shy Macrons of the Left, as shy Le Pens of the Right, but I won't be shocked, if there will be a small error in any side. But even then, Macron has a very healthy margin and is likely to win, even though economical and social consequences of the pandemic remain to be seen.

[Tirnam]

Bertrand announces his candidacy for the presidency. He will not run for the LR primary.

[Zinneke]

https://www.la-clau.net/info/14673/manuel-valls-rentre-en-france-pour-aider-macron

lmfao

[Tirnam]

An IFOP/JDD poll for the presidential election, with all kind of scenarios.

Basically Macron and Le Pen around 25%.
LR between 6 and 16% (Bertrand at 16%, Pécresse at 11%, Wauquiez at 7%, Retailleau at 6%)
Mélenchon around 12%
PS candidate between 5 and 7% (Hidalgo at 7%, Montebourg at 5%)
EELV candidate between 2 and 7% (Piolle at 2%, Jadot at 7%)

A single candidacy for PS and EELV would only get around 10% (10% for Hidalgo, 9% for Jadot), in these scenarios Bertrand reaches 20%.

In the second round Macron, Bertrand and Pécresse would beat Le Pen (54% for Macron, 59% for Bertrand, 55% for Pécresse).
No left-wing candidate would be in position to beat Le Pen (Hidalgo 50 / Le Pen 50, Jadot 47 / Le Pen 53, Mélenchon 40 / Le Pen 60).

[Agafin]

An IFOP/JDD poll for the presidential election, with all kind of scenarios.

Basically Macron and Le Pen around 25%.
LR between 6 and 16% (Bertrand at 16%, Pécresse at 11%, Wauquiez at 7%, Retailleau at 6%)
Mélenchon around 12%
PS candidate between 5 and 7% (Hidalgo at 7%, Montebourg at 5%)
EELV candidate between 2 and 7% (Piolle at 2%, Jadot at 7%)

A single candidacy for PS and EELV would only get around 10% (10% for Hidalgo, 9% for Jadot), in these scenarios Bertrand reaches 20%.

In the second round Macron, Bertrand and Pécresse would beat Le Pen (54% for Macron, 59% for Bertrand, 55% for Pécresse).
No left-wing candidate would be in position to beat Le Pen (Hidalgo 50 / Le Pen 50, Jadot 47 / Le Pen 53, Mélenchon 40 / Le Pen 60).

Wtf at Melenchon lol, that's horrendous.

I still can't believe we've reached the point where the National Front is now within the margin of error of winning even against traditional parties. The era of everyone uniting against them seems to be over.

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah...the fall of right wing populism in France was dependent on things rapidly improving under Macron....

Clearly that did not come, and at this point Le Pen is probably favored.

[parochial boy]

The French left is facing two, let's be honest, pretty unsurmountable obstacles:

1. They are French

2. The electorate is also French

This is the best analysis of the 2022 presidential election that you will read at any point over the next year.

[Pick Up the Phone]

Clearly that did not come, and at this point Le Pen is probably favored.

That's quite a stretch.

[Tirnam]

Another poll (Elabe/BFMTV) with roughly the same findings.

Le Pen 26-28%
Macron 25-27%
Bertrand 15% / Pécresse 9%
Mélenchon 11%
Jadot 6%
Hidalgo 5%

Second round : Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

[parochial boy]

Re that Ifop poll, I would note that Bertrand/Pécresse's (and to a lesser extent Méluche/the left more widely) age crosstabs are... eye opening. Especially Bertrand's

[Geoffrey Howe]

Re that Ifop poll, I would note that Bertrand/Pécresse's (and to a lesser extent Méluche/the left more widely) age crosstabs are... eye opening. Especially Bertrand's

Where does Bertrand's support come from? Is it the same as Fillon (old, wealthy, Catholic)?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

MP's have approved legislation that states that the age of consent in France is fifteen, except in cases of incest, in which it is eighteen.

French MPs have unanimously approved a long-awaited draft law to protect children from rape and sexual abuse.

The legislation, drawn up after a series of scandals involving high-profile figures, establishes an age of “non-consent” at 15 under which a child cannot be considered to have willingly engaged in a sexual act. In cases of incest, the age has been set at 18.

Around 300 amendments were proposed and discussed, but the law, proposed by Emmanuel Macron’s government, was passed with cross-party support.

The first article of the new law establishes that “any act of sexual penetration of whatever nature” including oral sex, committed by an adult on a person under the age of 15 is considered to be rape.

“In this way, no adult will be able to claim consent from a minor under this age of non-consent,” the minister of justice, Éric Dupond-Moretti, told the Assemblée Nationale, the lower house of the French parliament.

The penalty for rape, incestuous or not, is set at 20 years in prison.

The draft legislation, which includes new laws covering all acts of sexual assault and abuse of minors, now passes to the upper house, the Sénat, for approval.

To avoid criminalising sex between teenagers and young adults, it includes a so-called “Romeo and Juliet” clause that says punishment should only apply if the difference in age between the adult and the person under 15 is at least five years. This clause would not apply in rape or assault cases.

“I do not want to be sending a kid of 18 before a court because he had a consenting relationship with a girl of 14-and-a-half,” Dupond-Moretti said.

The legislation also proposes an extension to the statute of limitation for the rape of a minor in cases where the adult goes on to rape others, and prison sentences of 10 years and a fine of €150,000 for anyone convicted of inciting children under 15 to commit sexual acts on the internet.

The bill, which will now be considered by a committee made up of MPs and senators, is expected to be passed into law in a matter of weeks.

Any more movement on this?

[Tirnam]

Re that Ifop poll, I would note that Bertrand/Pécresse's (and to a lesser extent Méluche/the left more widely) age crosstabs are... eye opening. Especially Bertrand's

Where does Bertrand's support come from? Is it the same as Fillon (old, wealthy, Catholic)?

Yes, but weaker.
28% of 65 and older support Bertrand, it was 40% for Fillon. He is polling very low with young people (4% among 35 and young, it was 12% for Fillon), 26% of people earning more than €2,500/month would vote for him, 1% of those earning less than €900.
Macron has a homogeneous support across the population (27% among people younger than 25, 20% among blue-collar voters and unemployed, 29% of people earning more than €2,500, 20% among those earning less than €900).
Le Pen's strengths are among blue collar voters (43%), rural voters (41%), people with a high school graduate (34%), low income voters (33%). Her weakness remains with older voters (12% among 65 and more), people with a master degree (12%), people with high income (12%), and people living in the Paris region (11%).
Mélenchon is weak among old people (6%) but has a homogeneous support until that age, also weak with people with high income. He has is strengths among people with low income (around 20%), unemployed (18%).

[LAKISYLVANIA]

The fact that Le Pen and other western European right-wing populists do so terrible among older demographics bodes no well for the future in Europe. 65 years ago, it was 1955. The memories of post WW2 are much fresher, and there was also more traditional political identity (you either being a liberal, a christian democrat or a socialist, while being a member of socialist union, christian democratic union or a liberal union, and being covered (health) by one of them. That tradition seems to have slowly breaken up, opening roads more newer and esp. more populist issues, esp. given there are new problems Europe face (immigration question, social policy being more prominent than it used to be, globalism, and the rise of the internet and social media which means the traditional media lost their monopoly).

[Geoffrey Howe]

Re that Ifop poll, I would note that Bertrand/Pécresse's (and to a lesser extent Méluche/the left more widely) age crosstabs are... eye opening. Especially Bertrand's

Where does Bertrand's support come from? Is it the same as Fillon (old, wealthy, Catholic)?

Yes, but weaker.
28% of 65 and older support Bertrand, it was 40% for Fillon. He is polling very low with young people (4% among 35 and young, it was 12% for Fillon), 26% of people earning more than €2,500/month would vote for him, 1% of those earning less than €900.
Macron has a homogeneous support across the population (27% among people younger than 25, 20% among blue-collar voters and unemployed, 29% of people earning more than €2,500, 20% among those earning less than €900).
Le Pen's strengths are among blue collar voters (43%), rural voters (41%), people with a high school graduate (34%), low income voters (33%). Her weakness remains with older voters (12% among 65 and more), people with a master degree (12%), people with high income (12%), and people living in the Paris region (11%).
Mélenchon is weak among old people (6%) but has a homogeneous support until that age, also weak with people with high income. He has is strengths among people with low income (around 20%), unemployed (18%).

I assume much of Bertrand's losses compared to Fillon have gone to Macron - is that correct?

[Zinneke]

Edouard Phillippe has co-authored a book. That is all.

[Tirnam]

With one year to go before the presidential election we had two more polls

Harris Interactive with basically the same findings than the others
Le Pen and Macron at 26%, Bertrand at 15%, Mélenchon at 11%, Jadot and Hidalgo at 6%

Ipsos with a large sample (10,000 people)
Le Pen : 26% (27% with Pécresse, 28% with Retailleau)
Macron : 25% (27% with Pécresse, 29% with Retailleau)
Bertrand : 16% (11% Pécresse, 8% Retailleau)
Jadot : 10%
Hidalgo : 8-9%
Mélenchon : 8%

In the second round Macron would defeat Le Pen with 57% and Bertrand with 52%, Bertrand would defeat Le Pen with 61%.

[parochial boy]

Someone probably could/should set up a separate thread for the election now, given it's less than a year away and otherwise this thread is just going to be increasingly dominated by election coverage

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone probably could/should set up a separate thread for the election now, given it's less than a year away and otherwise this thread is just going to be increasingly dominated by election coverage

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=440475.0
the thread has been made.
If you think the OP is too simple feel free to give me advice or anything, this is my first time doing this kind of thing. Merci.

[Lord Halifax]

Open letter in a right wing (far right?) paper from a large number of retired officers and active servicemen (incl. 20 generals) warning against a civil war if Islamism isn't brought under control and the authority of the state reestablished in the suburbs. Le Pen has naturally praised them, and apparently the Minister of Defence threatened to sack some of the active soldiers signing the letter.

https://www.valeursactuelles.com/politique/pour-un-retour-de-lhonneur-de-nos-gouvernants-20-generaux-appellent-macron-a-defendre-le-patriotisme/

Would appreciate some comments and/or clarification from our French posters. What's this about and is it a nothingburger or serious?

[Geoffrey Howe]

Worth noting that this has come on the 60th anniversary (bar a few days) of the Algiers Putsch.

(https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algiers_putsch_of_1961)

[lfromnj]

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20210428-angry-renault-workers-hold-managers-hostage-to-stop-sale-of-french-factory

Wtf?