France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[Lechasseur]

De Gaulle and Berlusconi would like to have a word.

I don’t mean to be rude, but to pretend that Italy or France in the 1950s had some history of super dominant parties - like the UK, Canada, America, etc. - is really not the case. To be maximally generous to your position, Macron’s electoral feat is at least slightly more impressive than De Gaulle.

Christian Democracy and the PCI were dominant parties up until Italy up until the 90s. Berlusconi's ascension was pretty directly made possible as a reslult of Mani Pulite and the destruction of the First Republic's party system.

France has always had a weak party system, with new parties forming/splitting/merging all over the place - so it's a mistake to say that the RPR/UMP/LR-PS tandem of the end of th 20th century was really that "dominant", as it was always manifestly more precarious than was made out.

What France has had though, is pretty identifiable political traditions that go back decades, in which case Macron is pretty identifiably in the same non-Gaullist centre-right tradition as VGE and Bayrou.

I think in terms of REAL beliefs, Macron is very much an Hollandist (basically an economically right-wing cultural progressive; there's a reason he was in the PS rather than the UMP after all).

He's just governing as a non-Gaullist conservative now because he doesn't have a choice (the left won't support an economically right-wing agenda so he's ditched ditched a lot of his culturally progressive inclinations in order to nail down the conservative vote).

[njwes]

De Gaulle and Berlusconi would like to have a word.

I don’t mean to be rude, but to pretend that Italy or France in the 1950s had some history of super dominant parties - like the UK, Canada, America, etc. - is really not the case. To be maximally generous to your position, Macron’s electoral feat is at least slightly more impressive than De Gaulle.

Christian Democracy and the PCI were dominant parties up until Italy up until the 90s. Berlusconi's ascension was pretty directly made possible as a reslult of Mani Pulite and the destruction of the First Republic's party system.

France has always had a weak party system, with new parties forming/splitting/merging all over the place - so it's a mistake to say that the RPR/UMP/LR-PS tandem of the end of th 20th century was really that "dominant", as it was always manifestly more precarious than was made out.

What France has had though, is pretty identifiable political traditions that go back decades, in which case Macron is pretty identifiably in the same non-Gaullist centre-right tradition as VGE and Bayrou.

I think in terms of REAL beliefs, Macron is very much an Hollandist (basically an economically right-wing cultural progressive; there's a reason he was in the PS rather than the UMP after all).

He's just governing as a non-Gaullist conservative now because he doesn't have a choice (the left won't support an economically right-wing agenda so he's ditched ditched a lot of his culturally progressive inclinations in order to nail down the conservative vote).

What would distinguish a Gaullist conservative from a non-Gaullist one? More emphasis on French sovereignty, national greatness, more muscular foreign policy?

[Tirnam]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

[Lechasseur]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

I frankly don't believe the polls, and I don't think a lot of these politicians do either (I suspect the real meaning is "we don't like him, but he's less bad than Le Pen; a dynamic Hollande never had as his main opposition was LR rather than FN). Actually go talk to real people in the street and find someone who like's Macron. Yeah, that's what I thought. I don't know a single person who approves of him anymore (my dad used to be his biggest fan but even he can't stand him anymore).

[Lechasseur]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

Plus, in the intention de vote polls, which I think are closer to reality than these approval polls, Macron's doing pretty poorly for a sitting president and is in striking distance from other parties.

[Tirnam]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

I frankly don't believe the polls, and I don't think a lot of these politicians do either (I suspect the real meaning is "we don't like him, but he's less bad than Le Pen; a dynamic Hollande never had as his main opposition was LR rather than FN). Actually go talk to real people in the street and find someone who like's Macron. Yeah, that's what I thought. I don't know a single person who approves of him anymore (my dad used to be his biggest fan but even he can't stand him anymore).

Because your friends and family are a better representation of the French people than a sample built by a pollster?

Plus, in the intention de vote polls, which I think are closer to reality than these approval polls, Macron's doing pretty poorly for a sitting president and is in striking distance from other parties.

At this point Macron is polling at the same level or even a little bit better than Chirac in 2001 (23-24%), better than Sarkozy in 2011 (18%-24%), and way better than Hollande in 2016 (16-18%).

[Antonio the Sixth]

French polls are honestly some of the most accurate in the world. The fact that French pollsters get so much sh*t for missing Le Pen beating Jospin in 2002 (even though they basically showed the two within the margin of error and the trend was clearly in Le Pen's favor) has created a cottage industry of poll-haters that's even more fanatical than in the US post-2016, but this is an utterly irrational attitude, and dismissing evidence because it doesn't "feel right" is the best way of getting burned (and I would know - I kept insisting that FBM's support would implode in 2017 and it never did).

A better argument is that approvals and voting intentions are very different things.

[Lechasseur]

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/replay-radio/le-brief-politique/emmanuel-macron-est-il-cuit-la-theorie-du-trou-de-souris-pour-2022_4247695.html

Interesting

Privately, a lot of major political figures believes Macron will lose in 2022 if he runs again. Even one of Macron's allies said anonymously that Macron may end up like Hollande and not be able to run again.

What people from both the left and the right are thinking is basically if Macron is against anyone other than Le Pen in 2022, he loses. And honestly, I agree. That's what I've been telling people too.

I think Macron and LREM would be best off having Macron retire here and have Edouard Philippe run instead.

I suspect either LR or the left will grow in strength here in the coming months as people are really tired of both Macron and Le Pen.

According to Kantar-Sofres
Macron approval rating, February 2021 : 39%
Hollande approval rating, February 2016 : 15%
How can someone seriously believe that Macron is on track to be just like Hollande?!

I frankly don't believe the polls, and I don't think a lot of these politicians do either (I suspect the real meaning is "we don't like him, but he's less bad than Le Pen; a dynamic Hollande never had as his main opposition was LR rather than FN). Actually go talk to real people in the street and find someone who like's Macron. Yeah, that's what I thought. I don't know a single person who approves of him anymore (my dad used to be his biggest fan but even he can't stand him anymore).

Because your friends and family are a better representation of the French people than a sample built by a pollster?

Plus, in the intention de vote polls, which I think are closer to reality than these approval polls, Macron's doing pretty poorly for a sitting president and is in striking distance from other parties.

At this point Macron is polling at the same level or even a little bit better than Chirac in 2001 (23-24%), better than Sarkozy in 2011 (18%-24%), and way better than Hollande in 2016 (16-18%).

Geez you didn't have to be so aggressive about it.

If you argued like Antonio just after you your point would have been much better taken.

[NewYorkExpress]

French women are demanding an age of consent, like the rest of Europe, after a story emerged of a young girl having sex with twenty firefighters between the ages of thirteen and fifteen between 2008 and 2010.

Protests will take place across France on Sunday in support of a woman allegedly raped by 20 firefighters when she was between 13 and 15 years old. Her case is being examined in the country’s highest court this week and campaigners hope it will lead to an age of sexual consent being enshrined in law as it is in the rest of the European Union.

Julie* says she was raped by Parisian firefighters over a period of two years, having been groomed by Pierre, a firefighter who had assisted her during a severe anxiety seizure when she was 13 in early 2008. Three of the accused have admitted they had sex with her but say it was consensual. In a journal written shortly afterwards Julie says she was “terrified and paralysed with fear” at the time.


Based at the Bourg-la-Reine fire station in Paris, Pierre got Julie’s phone number from her medical file, in which her age was also recorded. Julie says he bombarded her with “affectionate messages”. Later, he asked Julie to undress via webcam and, when the child complied, passed her number to another firefighter who demanded the same.

Julie’s case will reach its conclusion on Wednesday at the court of cassation, the supreme court of appeal. Lawyers will argue that all 20 firefighters, who were from various stations, should be charged with rape. Currently only three men are charged with “sexual violation”.

French legislation says that it is an offence for someone in a position of authority to have sex with a person under the age of 18. Under the law, in order to bring rape charges, the complainant must prove she was forced or violently coerced; otherwise the accused may only be charged with sexual violation. The maximum sentence for sexual violation is seven years, compared with 20 for rape.

[NewYorkExpress]

France is attempting to set the age of consent to fifteen.

France’s government wants to set the age of sexual consent at 15 and make it easier to punish long-ago child sexual abuse, amid growing public pressure and a wave of online testimonies about rape and other sexual violence by parents and authority figures.

“Finally!” was the refrain Wednesday from victims and child protection activists who have long pushed for tougher laws and greater societal recognition of the problem.

France’s lack of an age of consent — along with statutes of limitations — have complicated efforts to prosecute alleged perpetrators, including a prominent modeling agent, a predatory priest, a surgeon and a group of firefighters accused of systematic sexual abuse.


Calling such treatment of children “intolerable,” the Justice Ministry said “the government is determined to act quickly to implement the changes that our society expects.”

“An act of sexual penetration by an adult on a minor under 15 will be considered a rape,” Justice Minister Eric Dupond-Moretti said Tuesday on France-2 television. Perpetrators could no longer cite consent to diminish the charges, he said, though exceptions would be made for teenagers having consensual sex.

The change still needs to be enshrined in law, but the announcement is a major step.

[parochial boy]

Minister of Higer Education Frédérique Vidal is in a bit of trouble after announcing she would ask the CNRS research institute to report on all ongoing research in France in order to combat Judeo-Bolshevism, I mean, "Islamogauchisme" (cf, the "woke American ideas" thread).

This is at a time where university students in France are in a complete social crisis, with ever lengthening queues of students for food banks, crushing poverty over their lack of access to income support, massive psychological strain - all summarised in this video which gained a bit of attention itself the other weak.

So obviously Vidal has her really got her priorities sorted here.

[NewYorkExpress]

There's a bit of an argument going on becuase the Mayor of Lyon removed meat from school lunches in the city.

The French government has criticised Lyon's mayor after he removed meat from school lunches in the city.

Gregory Doucet, a member of the Green party, has said the move allows service to be streamlined and quickened amid coronavirus restrictions.

But the government has hit back, accusing him of risking children's health.

"Let's stop putting ideology on our children's plates," wrote Agriculture Minister Julien Denormandie.

"Let's just give them what they need to grow well. Meat is part of it," he added in a post on Twitter.

Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin said it was an "unacceptable insult" for French farmers and butchers.

"We can see that the moralising and elitist policy of the Greens excludes the popular classes. Many children often only get to eat meat at the school canteen."

Mr Doucet responded by saying his right-wing predecessor as mayor introduced the same measure during the pandemic last year.

Fish and eggs remain on school menus in Lyon, and Mr Doucet said menus would be balanced for all children.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not a veggie, but it is totally possible to have a healthy diet without meat.

[Kingpoleon]

Is fish not considered meat nowadays?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Is fish not considered meat nowadays?

One could argue that in Catholic societies it never has been.

[Angel of Death]

Sarkozy has been sentenced to three years in prison, two of which suspended.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tres bien!

[President Johnson]

Sarkozy has been sentenced to three years in prison, two of which suspended.

He will most likely appeal to the ruling and in the end get house arrest rather than prison. I can't imagine him seeing a prison cell from the inside.

[2952-0-0]

Sarkozy has been sentenced to three years in prison, two of which suspended.

He will most likely appeal to the ruling and in the end get house arrest rather than prison. I can't imagine him seeing a prison cell from the inside.

So for him, it's one extra year of 2020.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

When I go to the search bar while on this page, my phone suggests “Sexual consent”. Rather appropriate.

[Antonio the Sixth]

#EnfermezLe

[parochial boy]

https://twitter.com/NicolasSarkozy/status/661447751926808576

For once I agree with poison dwarf.

[NewYorkExpress]

MP and Billionaire Olivier Dassault died in a helicopter crash at 69.

French MP and billionaire Olivier Dassault has died in a helicopter crash in north-western France.

The accident occurred on Sunday evening in Normandy where he had a holiday home, according to police sources.

In his tribute, President Emanuel Macron said Dassault, 69, loved France and his death would be "a great loss".

Dassault was the son of industrialist Serge Dassault, whose group builds Rafale war planes and owns Le Figaro newspaper.

He was elected to the National Assembly - France's lower house of parliament - in 2002 and represented the Oise area of northern France.

The MP, from the centre-right Republicans, was considered the 361st richest man in the world - worth an estimated €6.3bn ($7.3bn; £5.2bn) according to Forbes.

"Olivier Dassault loved France. Captain of industry, lawmaker, local elected official, reserve commander in the air force: during his life, he never ceased to serve our country, to value its assets. His sudden death is a great loss," Mr Macron said on Twitter.

The helicopter carrying Dassault crashed near Deauville at about 18:00 (1700 GMT), sources told AFP news agency. The pilot was also killed, the sources added. No-one else was on board.

[Frenchrepublican]

[NewYorkExpress]

The thirteen year old at the center of the murder of Samuel Paty admits that she lied.

Like many a school truant, the 13-year-old girl was keen to prevent her father from discovering she had been suspended because of repeatedly failing to turn up for lessons.

So she made up a story. The teenager said her history teacher, Samuel Paty, had instructed Muslim students to leave the classroom so he could show the rest “a photograph of the Prophet naked”.

It must have seemed a harmless enough lie, but it sparked a chain of events that led to unimaginable horror.

Ten days later, the teacher was dead – decapitated by a Islamist terrorist. Paty’s family were left devastated, France traumatised and the girl and her father facing criminal charges. Two other teenagers, who took money from the assassin, Abdullakh Anzorov, are also under investigation.


On Sunday, Le Parisien revealed that the girl, known only as Z, had admitted that she had wrongly accused Paty. The paper said she confessed to the investigating anti-terrorist judge that she had lied, and that she was not even in the class where Paty showed pupils controversial caricatures from the satirical newspaper Charlie Hebdo.

The newspaper said the girl had lied because she wanted to please her father.

“She would not have dared to confess to her father the real reasons for her exclusion shortly before the tragedy, which was in fact linked to her bad behaviour,” Le Parisien reported.

On 6 October last year, Paty, a history and geography teacher, gave a class on the subject of “dilemmas”. He posed the question “to be or not to be Charlie?”, referring to the #JeSuisCharlie hashtag used to express support for the paper after a terrorist attack on its offices in January 2015 that killed 12 people.

Paty is said to have invited Muslim pupils who thought they might be shocked to close their eyes or briefly stand in the corridor while he showed pupils a caricature of the Prophet.

Two days later, the girl told her father that Paty, 47, had asked Muslim students to leave the class before showing the caricature. She said she had expressed her disagreement with the teacher and he had suspended her from classes for two days.

After hearing the story, her outraged father, Moroccan-born Brahim Chnina, 48, shared a video on Facebook in which he denounced Paty and called for him to be sacked from the secondary school at Conflans-Sainte-Honorine. A second, equally angry video was posted on social media accusing Paty of “discrimination”.

Chnina complained to the school and the police, claiming Paty was guilty of “diffusing a pornographic image”, and sparking accusations of Islamophobia at the school.

Once set in motion, the issue snowballed on social networks and reached Anzorov, 18, a radicalised Chechen migrant living in Normandy and scouring the internet for a cause. On 16 October, Anzorov travelled to Conflans-Sainte-Honorine, paid two teenagers from the school to identify Paty as he was leaving for home on a Friday evening and beheaded him.

The lie had led to the killing of a man and father of a five-year-old boy.

The girl reportedly stuck to her story until police told her several classmates had confirmed she was not present for the lesson and that Paty had not instructed Muslim pupils to leave the class as she had claimed.

Investigators reportedly said she was suffering from an “inferiority complex” and was devoted to her father.