France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[CumbrianLefty]

Joyful stuff.

[parochial boy]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

Would you say Melenchon is still the main left wing hope now?

[Zinneke]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

I doubt it will be Hanouna. But with Bigard already throwing his hat in the ring and withdrawing it you really get the sense that a Coluche-style candidate is dying to ride the anti-political wave. Son-Forget, somebody you will likely be familiar with, is perhaps in pole position.

I also think, while ruling out people like Zemmour and Onfray, eventually one of the famous talking heads/chroniqueurs of French politics will also throw their hat into the ring and do 10-15 per cent.

I think Macron's greatest fear though, before Panzergirl and whatever clown decides to run on behalf of all the Monsieur Blancs of France, is his own PM. After all Macron himself stabbed his own President in the back. And Philippe is somewhat more popular than Macron was as finance minister.

[parochial boy]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

I doubt it will be Hanouna. But with Bigard already throwing his hat in the ring and withdrawing it you really get the sense that a Coluche-style candidate is dying to ride the anti-political wave. Son-Forget, somebody you will likely be familiar with, is perhaps in pole position.

I also think, while ruling out people like Zemmour and Onfray, eventually one of the famous talking heads/chroniqueurs of French politics will also throw their hat into the ring and do 10-15 per cent.

I think Macron's greatest fear though, before Panzergirl and whatever clown decides to run on behalf of all the Monsieur Blancs of France, is his own PM. After all Macron himself stabbed his own President in the back. And Philippe is somewhat more popular than Macron was as finance minister.

Hmm, yes Clément Viktorovitch, one of the tiny handful of people on French TV that are remotely worth listening to, did quite a delightful take down of Bigard a few weeks ago. I agree he is more likely to stand, but imo Hanouna would be more interesting (if that's the right word), purely by way of seeming a bit more out of the box. Bigard feels just more like a bog standard french three-quarters celebrity with an over developed opinion of himself.

Would love to see Philippe stand, that would be delightfully messy. And it would be beautiful seeing one of the CNews fascists crash and burn on 2% or something.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

Would you say Melenchon is still the main left wing hope now?

I have no idea to be honest. Between him, maybe one of the big city mayors (Piolle? he's the EÉLV mayor of Grenoble, and there seem to be rumours hanging around), or frankly some hitherto unknown coming out of the wordwork as there really isn't much I'm seeing that is particularly inspiring.

[xelas81]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

I doubt it will be Hanouna. But with Bigard already throwing his hat in the ring and withdrawing it you really get the sense that a Coluche-style candidate is dying to ride the anti-political wave. Son-Forget, somebody you will likely be familiar with, is perhaps in pole position.

I also think, while ruling out people like Zemmour and Onfray, eventually one of the famous talking heads/chroniqueurs of French politics will also throw their hat into the ring and do 10-15 per cent.

I think Macron's greatest fear though, before Panzergirl and whatever clown decides to run on behalf of all the Monsieur Blancs of France, is his own PM. After all Macron himself stabbed his own President in the back. And Philippe is somewhat more popular than Macron was as finance minister.

If Philippe runs would he run under LREM, LR or form a new party?

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/france-president-macron-assesses-his-chances-ahead-of-2022-election.html

French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a new dilemma that could hurt his chances for re-election in 2022.

Recent opinion polls have shown that Prime Minister Edouard Philippe is more popular than President Macron. According to polling firm Ifop, in June, the prime minister had an approval rating of 50% — well above Macron’s, which stood at 38%. In a political system where the president is the main political figure, Macron is studying his political alternatives.

“He is certainly tempted to make a change,” Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at the research firm Eurasia Group, told CNBC amid speculation that Macron is considering changing prime minister.

“But, Philippe is very popular,” he said. “Dumping him (even amicably) will be risky. Keeping him is also problematic, if his popularity puts Macron in the shade.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh God, FBM winning really opened the floodgates for every third-rate celebrity to start thinking they could be the next "outsider" to win the Presidency. What a f**king time to be alive.

[Zinneke]

There's been rumours of a wildcard like Cyril Hanouna* standing. Which Macron apparently finds more worrying than a challenge from Le Pen if he manages to pull a big bunch of dissaffected/gilets jaunes type votes. That, er, remains to be seen though - to put it mildly.

Of course, Panzergirl was also around 30% two years out from the last election, and Juppé was the favourite. So, you know, counting chickens and unhatched eggs and all that sort of stuff.

*He presents a tv talk-show type thing called "Touche pas à mon poste!", which is quite popular with the sort of demographic that would have him qualified as "populist" should he choose to run

I doubt it will be Hanouna. But with Bigard already throwing his hat in the ring and withdrawing it you really get the sense that a Coluche-style candidate is dying to ride the anti-political wave. Son-Forget, somebody you will likely be familiar with, is perhaps in pole position.

I also think, while ruling out people like Zemmour and Onfray, eventually one of the famous talking heads/chroniqueurs of French politics will also throw their hat into the ring and do 10-15 per cent.

I think Macron's greatest fear though, before Panzergirl and whatever clown decides to run on behalf of all the Monsieur Blancs of France, is his own PM. After all Macron himself stabbed his own President in the back. And Philippe is somewhat more popular than Macron was as finance minister.

If Philippe runs would he run under LREM, LR or form a new party?

Philippe rather deliberately tried to keep his LR status and has never joined LREM as a political party.

But given how LR's internal party structure is difficult to negotiate, I don't think he would win their primary. The question is if he runs do LR back him?

Oh God, FBM winning really opened the floodgates for every third-rate celebrity to start thinking they could be the next "outsider" to win the Presidency. What a f**king time to be alive.

I think rather than Macron winning its a general disgust and a product of the very particular mediatic scene.

[Tirnam]

The Fillions found guilty of embezzling public funds.
François Fillion is sentenced to 5 years in jail (three years suspended) and €375,000 fine, his wife Penelope is sentenced to three suspended years and a €375,000 fine.
Fillion's assistant, Marc Joulaud, is sentenced to three suspended years and a €20,000 fine.
The three must also reimburse more than 1 million euros to the National Assembly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/francois-fillon-found-guilty-of-embezzling-public-funds

[brucejoel99]

The Fillions found guilty of embezzling public funds.
François Fillion is sentenced to 5 years in jail (three years suspended) and €375,000 fine, his wife Penelope is sentenced to three suspended years and a €375,000 fine.
Fillion's assistant, Marc Joulaud, is sentenced to three suspended years and a €20,000 fine.
The three must also reimburse more than 1 million euros to the National Assembly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/francois-fillon-found-guilty-of-embezzling-public-funds

They're appealing, too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The Fillions found guilty of embezzling public funds.
François Fillion is sentenced to 5 years in jail (three years suspended) and €375,000 fine, his wife Penelope is sentenced to three suspended years and a €375,000 fine.
Fillion's assistant, Marc Joulaud, is sentenced to three suspended years and a €20,000 fine.
The three must also reimburse more than 1 million euros to the National Assembly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/29/francois-fillon-found-guilty-of-embezzling-public-funds

They're appealing, too.

As always. It will take years, but hopefully we'll #LockThemUp eventually. It took a while for the Balkanys too.

[parochial boy]

And on a somewhat related note, Didier Raoult is now alongside Nicolas Hulot and Édouard Philippe as one of the most popular "political" figures in the country.

I can't see this ending badly at all 🙃

[Estrella]

And on a somewhat related note, Didier Raoult is now alongside Nicolas Hulot and Édouard Philippe as one of the most popular "political" figures in the country.

I can't see this ending badly at all 

A man can dream, if he likes nightmares.

[parochial boy]

And on a somewhat related note, Didier Raoult is now alongside Nicolas Hulot and Édouard Philippe as one of the most popular "political" figures in the country.

I can't see this ending badly at all 🙃

A man can dream, if he likes nightmares.

Je n’ai pas besoin de vous expliquer mon programme. Déjà que vous êtes bien trop incompétent pour le comprendre

[brucejoel99]

And on a somewhat related note, Didier Raoult is now alongside Nicolas Hulot and Édouard Philippe as one of the most popular "political" figures in the country.

I can't see this ending badly at all 

A man can dream, if he likes nightmares.

This looks like a wikipedia infobox of sequel trilogy Luke Skywalker beating Paul McCartney in an election.

[Tirnam]

Another presidential election poll, this one from Elabe.

1- Bertrand as LR candidate (without Faure)
Macron: 30% (31%)
Le Pen: 27.5% (26.5%)
Mélenchon: 12.5% (12.5%)
Jadot: 8.5% (9%)
Dupont-Aignan: 5% (5.5%)
Faure: 2.5% (-)

2- Baroin as LR candidate (without Faure)
Macron: 31% (31%)
Le Pen: 24.5% (26.5%)
Baroin: 12% (11%)
Mélenchon: 11,5% (12.5%)
Jadot: 8,5% (10%)
Dupont-Aignan: 5.5% (5%)
Faure: 2.5% (-)

Second round
Macron: 58.5%
Le Pen: 41.5%

57% want Philippe to stay as PM

52% want Macron to significantly change his policies (-5)
39% want some few changes (+8)
8% want no change (-3)

The top priorities for the French are:
The economic recovery: 65%
Health: 47%
Inequality: 29%
Environment: 25%
Security: 25%

https://elabe.fr/lexecutif_apres_les_municipales/

[Zinneke]

Edouard Philippe submits resignation of his cabinet in a likely reshuffle by the President.

[Tirnam]

The Presidential Palace announces a "new" Prime Minister in the next few hours.

[Zinneke]

Very interesting. Did Macron catch hold of Philippe's ambitions for his own Presidency? Have the two just fallen out in what must have been an incredibly stressful time as the two key decision makers (with most of the LREM "party" and cabinet frozen out). Or is it just that Philippe is not the right profile to pass a whole host of social measures for the recovery?

Also will be interesting to see where Macron swings from here. He could try and ride the Green wave but I think that would be a serious error of political judgement even by his standards. His street credit with the French Left has evaporated since he's taken the law and order approach to the Gilet Jaunes and other protests. He could also have been blackmailed by Bayrou who is now essentially keeping Macron's majority, which would explain why Macron was rumoured to be considering a dissolution of the Assembly.

Either its bizarre (but also known to be done) to dismiss your PM when the latter has high approval ratings. Its not as if Philippe will disappear from the French political scene, since he has a high profile Mayoral role and advisors aplenty.

[jaichind]

Jean Castex is appointed PM

[Zinneke]

It's like when your club is about to announce a big signing and in turns out to be a complete unknown flop. He's built his profile a little via the management of the deconfinement...but still...

One thing is for sure : Macron isn't swinging left. Castex was close to Sarkozy and Bertrand. He's a mandarin though with very little charisma or public profile. Looks like Macron wanted more media duties while his PM took care of the daily running of the country

[jaichind]

Is it possible that Philippe runs in 2022 with LR's support ?

[CumbrianLefty]

One thing is for sure : Macron isn't swinging left

And what a shock that is.

[Zinneke]

Is it possible that Philippe runs in 2022 with LR's support ?

Yes, people have touted this. I don't think the LR appreciates the people who defected to Macron's project though.

The initial reaction from LR to the Castex appointement is visible irritation. Macron is trying to canibalize the French Republican Right.

One thing is for sure : Macron isn't swinging left

And what a shock that is.

I was an initial supporter of his from a leftist perspective : I genuinely thought he was serious about democratisation of European institutions, which if we ever want to actually run a leftwing platform on this continent again is a necessary step. I'm also a pragmatist. I don't like the Walloon/French Left obsession of always wanting to be the bad kid at the back of the class to piss off investors, or making symbolic gestures to amateurish unions. Macron's pension reforms for example, were not that controversial, and more republican. The syndicalists blocked it because they just want a labour aristocracy in France, to hell if it's not sustainable or fair. The labour standards equivalent of NIMBY.

Then Macron hit a brick wall with the German ordo-liberals and decided to crack down hard on protesters. He showed cowardice when he could thrown his weight about. He managed to renege enough on his ecological platform to lose one of his few leftwing ministers (Hulot). I think from then he realised he had crossed the Rubicon and was going to be centre -right system babby. A deeply disappointing quinquennat. The last straw was making us endure Ursula Von Der Leyen through a backroom deal, when he was previously in favour the Spitsenkandidaten. Not entirely his fault given Manfred Weber is a horrible candidate. But still...it was just a signal that he was there as a new way for the status quo to reinvent itself.