France General Discussion IV: Yellow Fever

[Lechasseur]

https://www.20minutes.fr/politique/2745571-20200322-coronavirus-vague-previent-emmanuel-macron-journal-dimanche

The French minister of health estimates that the true number of infected people is somewhere between 30 000 and 90 000 in France, but most of these people either don't have symptoms or have very light ones so they haven't been tested.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://amp.lefigaro.fr/actualite-france/coronavirus-une-plainte-contre-edouard-philippe-et-agnes-buzyn-a-ete-deposee-20200321

A criminal complaint has been filed by a group of doctors and other healthcare professionals against Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and former Minister of Health and current LREM nominee for Paris City Hall Agnès Buzyn for "mensonge d'État", "lies by the state" in English, due to their handling of the coronavirus pandemic (basically by hiding how serious it was and not doing anything about it until it was already basically too late).

Expect similar in several other countries before long.

[parochial boy]

https://www.letemps.ch/culture/albert-uderzo-dessinateur-dasterix-decede

[Lechasseur]

https://www.letemps.ch/culture/albert-uderzo-dessinateur-dasterix-decede

RIP

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://www.letemps.ch/culture/albert-uderzo-dessinateur-dasterix-decede

RIP

[Lechasseur]

The Scientific Council has advised the French government that the lockdown here has to last at least 6 weeks.

It's purely advisory, but the government will most likely take its advice.

[Lechasseur]

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has announced that the lockdown in France will be extended until at least April 15th.

[windjammer]

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has announced that the lockdown in France will be extended until at least April 15th.

Probably until Early May.

[Lechasseur]

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has announced that the lockdown in France will be extended until at least April 15th.

Probably until Early May.

That's what I'm thinking too

If it ends there it's fine. What I don't like is the uncertainty.

[Lechasseur]

http://www.leparisien.fr/politique/coronavirus-le-gouvernement-envisage-un-deconfinement-regionalise-01-04-2020-8292291.php

The French government plans on coming up with a strategy in the coming weeks to let people out of confinement progressively, depending on testing, the number of people still in intensive care, the region they live in, their age and other criteria yet to be determined in all likelihood.

[Lechasseur]

Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has stated that confinement will "probably" be extended.

So France will be under stay-at-home order until at least the end of April.

[Lechasseur]

According to CNews, the total lockdown in France will probably end at the end of April, but restrictions will still apply in France for a while after that.

https://www.cnews.fr/france/2020-04-05/fin-du-confinement-pour-quand-et-comment-942659?amp

[SunSt0rm]

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

[brucejoel99]

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

Bayrou has long been an advocate for a proportional electoral system for deputies, so I wonder if he'll negotiate for it in exchange for his support of the upcoming constitutional reform that Macron wants.

[Zinneke]

Macron has lost his majority due to several left-wing LREM deputies forming their own independent group : Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity. This is the 9th group in the Assemblée - a record for the Fifth Republic.
They are headed by amongst others Cédric Villani, the mathematician and old dissident LREM candidate in Paris who was snubbed by Macron for Griveaux the arrogant DSK padawan who had his meat and two veg all over the internet and dropped out in disgrace.
I have no idea if they will stand in any election or if this is just a sort of "Independent Group for Change" style party that will not be able to federate.

This may be symbolic but it still makes Macron look weak. The French Right in particular is smelling blood with Edouard Phillippe waiting in the PM seat, and suggestions that he now has as much executive power as the sitting President (French politics is controlled by Macron and his adviser and Phillippe and his advisor - the "Party" EM founded in his name has essentially no oversight). Remember Macron, by stabbing Hollande and the PS establishment in the back, has no defense if his own inner circle decide to do the same to him.
 
Problem is, a lot of the French Right also think Fillon only lost because of his scandal, and that there are FN votes up for grabs if they run another right-winger who baits the Left and cosies up to reactionary Catholics.


Macron is playing a trump card of sorts by trying to re-energise the Franco-German relationship and show himself as more of a statesman. The dynamics of Macron-Merkel are going to be interesting but that's for another time.

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

Bayrou has long been an advocate for a proportional electoral system for deputies, so I wonder if he'll negotiate for it in exchange for his support of the upcoming constitutional reform that Macron wants.

I don't think so because he already negotiated his support for Macron and got what he wanted.

[gerritcole]

Macron has lost his majority due to several left-wing LREM deputies forming their own independent group : Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity. This is the 9th group in the Assemblée - a record for the Fifth Republic.
They are headed by amongst others Cédric Villani, the mathematician and old dissident LREM candidate in Paris who was snubbed by Macron for Griveaux the arrogant DSK padawan who had his meat and two veg all over the internet and dropped out in disgrace.
I have no idea if they will stand in any election or if this is just a sort of "Independent Group for Change" style party that will not be able to federate.

This may be symbolic but it still makes Macron look weak. The French Right in particular is smelling blood with Edouard Phillippe waiting in the PM seat, and suggestions that he now has as much executive power as the sitting President (French politics is controlled by Macron and his adviser and Phillippe and his advisor - the "Party" EM founded in his name has essentially no oversight). Remember Macron, by stabbing Hollande and the PS establishment in the back, has no defense if his own inner circle decide to do the same to him.
 
Problem is, a lot of the French Right also think Fillon only lost because of his scandal, and that there are FN votes up for grabs if they run another right-winger who baits the Left and cosies up to reactionary Catholics.


Macron is playing a trump card of sorts by trying to re-energise the Franco-German relationship and show himself as more of a statesman. The dynamics of Macron-Merkel are going to be interesting but that's for another time.

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

Bayrou has long been an advocate for a proportional electoral system for deputies, so I wonder if he'll negotiate for it in exchange for his support of the upcoming constitutional reform that Macron wants.

I don't think so because he already negotiated his support for Macron and got what he wanted.

Do you think  macron lose re-election

[Zinneke]

Macron has lost his majority due to several left-wing LREM deputies forming their own independent group : Ecology, Democracy, Solidarity. This is the 9th group in the Assemblée - a record for the Fifth Republic.
They are headed by amongst others Cédric Villani, the mathematician and old dissident LREM candidate in Paris who was snubbed by Macron for Griveaux the arrogant DSK padawan who had his meat and two veg all over the internet and dropped out in disgrace.
I have no idea if they will stand in any election or if this is just a sort of "Independent Group for Change" style party that will not be able to federate.

This may be symbolic but it still makes Macron look weak. The French Right in particular is smelling blood with Edouard Phillippe waiting in the PM seat, and suggestions that he now has as much executive power as the sitting President (French politics is controlled by Macron and his adviser and Phillippe and his advisor - the "Party" EM founded in his name has essentially no oversight). Remember Macron, by stabbing Hollande and the PS establishment in the back, has no defense if his own inner circle decide to do the same to him.
 
Problem is, a lot of the French Right also think Fillon only lost because of his scandal, and that there are FN votes up for grabs if they run another right-winger who baits the Left and cosies up to reactionary Catholics.


Macron is playing a trump card of sorts by trying to re-energise the Franco-German relationship and show himself as more of a statesman. The dynamics of Macron-Merkel are going to be interesting but that's for another time.

Macron has lost his majority in the Assemblee, he and Philippe can still govern but are depended on Bayrou party MoDem now

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-loses-absolute-majority-in-parliament-france/

Bayrou has long been an advocate for a proportional electoral system for deputies, so I wonder if he'll negotiate for it in exchange for his support of the upcoming constitutional reform that Macron wants.

I don't think so because he already negotiated his support for Macron and got what he wanted.

Do you think  macron lose re-election

Way too early to speculate in Covid-19 world.

Right now his greatest asset is Marine Le Pen.

For me the scenarios where he loses are :

1. Edouard Phillippe announces he is running. Gets broad LR support. Three way race between essentially 3 right-wing politicians and Phillippe edges Macron to take on Le Pen. Wins second round. Is President. Continues Macron legacy without Macron.

2. Macron stays on, runs on the centre-right, but Le Pen is cut at the knees internally leading to a split far right. The hard right of the LR profits from this collapse and comfortably wins the first and second round. The only issue with this scenario : who exactly on the hard right is distinguishing themselves as Presidential material? Wauquiez and Bellamy were both terrible presidents and lead candidates of the party respectively.

3. The left actually unite in the first round, which is not an impossibility despite the many egos; and given how split the Right and Center could be, do a reverse 2002 and stuns a Macron on 20-22%. Right-wing candidate goes on to win vs united Left.

4. We slowly descend into peak idiocracy and Joachim Son-Forget is elected by such a landslide in the first round there is no second one.


One thing Macron has done though, and it remains to be seen if this is a good or bad idea, is effectively tried to polarize the debate between his centre ground and the FN/FI souverainisme. He loves the fact that a prominent philospher like Michel Onfray is trying to unite intelllectually all the anti-EU, anti-globalist Right and Left. Its exactly the cleavage he wants to dominate French politics. He's left little space electorally for the old PS-LR and their favoured cleavages and old "traditional  local vote" model by virtue of his victory alone, which whether you like him or not one must recognised is one of the more remarkable revolutionary achievements and turning points in the French Fifth Republic.

Remains to be seen how Covid-19 affects things.

[PSOL]

The Owner of Le Monde has admitted he has collaborated with the French Intelligence Agency to spy on President Mitterrand and PM Chirac’s Junior Ministry of Security
I can see why the French elite would want to keep an eye on Mitterrand, but why spy on someone apart of a ministry heralded by Jacques Chirac? Wasn’t he “their” person to lead France? Who was this junior minister?

[parochial boy]

One thing Macron has done though, and it remains to be seen if this is a good or bad idea, is effectively tried to polarize the debate between his centre ground and the FN/FI souverainisme. He loves the fact that a prominent philospher like Michel Onfray is trying to unite intelllectually all the anti-EU, anti-globalist Right and Left. Its exactly the cleavage he wants to dominate French politics. He's left little space electorally for the old PS-LR and their favoured cleavages and old "traditional  local vote" model by virtue of his victory alone, which whether you like him or not one must recognised is one of the more remarkable revolutionary achievements and turning points in the French Fifth Republic.

Thing is, you say this, and Macron clearly wants it, and the more tedious and pompous elements of the French media have been pushing this for years and years, but... it remains the case that the Macron presidency has been marked, up until now, by contestation over social issues (and I'm using the term the way it is used in French here). That is, things like the gilets jaunes, the cheminot status reforms, the pension reforms, the hospital reforms (and now the marked impact of Covid on social inequalities) have been the dominating themes. All of these are traditional bread-and-butter left v right issues, and the questions over sovereignty or immigration have falled off the agenda.

Add to that, Macron's 2019 electorate was very much a traditional centre-right electorate composed principally of the highly educated, the wealthy, the elderly, the rich suburbs of the big cities and the old catholic vote in places like the Grand-Ouest and Alsace. An impressively like for like replica in fact.

So a pretentious navel gazing intellectual like Onfray, the type of guy the French oh so love to produce way too many of, can have his little pet project with his boring, has been old friends like Chevènement and De Villiers; but he isn't going to make the fact that the French don't like the fact they are getting poorer go away as an issue.

[Zinneke]

One thing Macron has done though, and it remains to be seen if this is a good or bad idea, is effectively tried to polarize the debate between his centre ground and the FN/FI souverainisme. He loves the fact that a prominent philospher like Michel Onfray is trying to unite intelllectually all the anti-EU, anti-globalist Right and Left. Its exactly the cleavage he wants to dominate French politics. He's left little space electorally for the old PS-LR and their favoured cleavages and old "traditional  local vote" model by virtue of his victory alone, which whether you like him or not one must recognised is one of the more remarkable revolutionary achievements and turning points in the French Fifth Republic.

Thing is, you say this, and Macron clearly wants it, and the more tedious and pompous elements of the French media have been pushing this for years and years, but... it remains the case that the Macron presidency has been marked, up until now, by contestation over social issues (and I'm using the term the way it is used in French here). That is, things like the gilets jaunes, the cheminot status reforms, the pension reforms, the hospital reforms (and now the marked impact of Covid on social inequalities) have been the dominating themes. All of these are traditional bread-and-butter left v right issues, and the questions over sovereignty or immigration have falled off the agenda. Add to that, Macron's 2019 electorate was very much a traditional centre-right electorate composed principally of the highly educated, the wealthy, the elderly, the rich suburbs of the big cities and the old catholic vote in places like the Grand-Ouest and Alsace. An impressively like for like replica in fact.

So a pretentious navel gazing intellectual like Onfray, the type of guy the French oh so love to produce way too many of, can have his little pet project with his boring, has been old friends like Chevènement and De Villiers; but he isn't going to make the fact that the French don't like the fact they are getting poorer go away as an issue.

And yet these contestations have expressed themselves outside the Left vs Right spectrum, instead polarising between pro and anti-Macron forces. Macron has put himself at the center of French politics in a way only De Gaulle has done in the Vth Republic, and his doctrine can only be described as Macronism.

The Gillets Jaunes are proof of that. They refused the right vs left label from the go and they totally are the kind of people to listen to Onfray, Zemmour, etc and polarise the debate between the "Maastricthian neo-liberal state dominating us from central Paris, incarnated by Macron" vs them. They are the culmination of years of media grooming as you rightly put it. Where is the centre-left? Nowhere to be seen.
 And yeah, the centre-right formed around Macron, with the notable exception of a whole host of old UMP or non-voting right-wing voters who have long grown accustomed to vote FN in the first round, because the idea that FN's new voters since JMLP left the scene are entirely old-PCF/PS ones has been debunked. Macron is still only on 22% so nowhere near Sarkozy 2007 when the right and centre-right performed to its peak.

[MaxQue]

The Owner of Le Monde has admitted he has collaborated with the French Intelligence Agency to spy on President Mitterrand and PM Chirac’s Junior Ministry of Security
I can see why the French elite would want to keep an eye on Mitterrand, but why spy on someone apart of a ministry heralded by Jacques Chirac? Wasn’t he “their” person to lead France? Who was this junior minister?

From what he claims, it seems it was to convince the government that hacking was a danger and a risk.

[Lechasseur]

http://www.leparisien.fr/video/video-paris-malgre-l-interdiction-des-milliers-de-personnes-defilent-pour-les-sans-papiers-30-05-2020-8326971.php

Yesterday there was a major demonstration in favor of the "sans-papiers" (French term for undocumented immigrants), despite the government having banned large demonstrations due to the current health situation.

The police broke up the demonstration and there were 98 arrests.

[PSOL]

They’re teargassing peaceful protesters yet again

[CumbrianLefty]

Macronism in action

[Tirnam]

Presidential election, Ifop poll

Baroin as LR candidate
Le Pen 28%
Macron 26%
Baroin 12%
Mélenchon 11%
Jadot 8%
Dupont-Aignan 5.5%


Bertrand as LR candidate
Macron 28%
Le Pen 27%
Bertrand 12%
Mélenchon 12%
Jadot 8%
Dupont-Aignan 5%

Second round
Macron 55%
Le Pen 45%

https://www.ifop.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/117452-Rapport.pdf