The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 4

[Mr. Morden]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1115993221992202240

Following these comments, McAuliffe teased his Twitter followers with this pair of..um...interesting tweets:

https://twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1116365063621836802

[scutosaurus]

Joe Sanberg says he’ll decide by July 4th:

https://www.cleveland.com/politics/2019/04/california-entrepreneur-joe-sanberg-tests-the-ohio-waters-for-democratic-presidential-run.html

Who the hell is this guy and why does anyone care about him?

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio was asked about a presidential run on Friday, and simply said that he has “not ruled it out”:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/sns-bc-us--election-2020-de-blasio-20190414-story.html

Kasich has a new political nonprofit organization:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/paid-for-by-kasich-for-america-new-group-could-be-launch-pad-for-2020-trump-challenge

Republican John Kasich, the former Ohio governor, has assembled a new political nonprofit organization that could function as a launchpad for a 2020 primary challenge against President Trump.

The advisory board for Two Paths America includes Kasich and prominent Never Trump Republicans such as Bill Kristol, a conservative journalist, and Jennifer Horn, former chairman of the New Hampshire GOP. Other Republican faces often critical of the president, such as actor and former California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and ex-Rep. Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania, are also on it.

Veteran Kasich aide Beth Hansen runs Two Paths America out of Columbus, Ohio. Republican sources say the organization has raised “hundreds of thousands of dollars.” They characterized the group as a platform to maintain Kasich’s national viability should he decide to run for president, but stopped short of describing it as a front for a pending 2020 campaign.
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Republicans acquainted with Two Paths America said the group could be used to lend policy and financial muscle to a Republican other than Kasich who might choose to primary Trump next year. Rath, an advisory board member, emphasized that the organization does not exist simply to further Kasich’s presidential aspirations. “It’s not a stalking horse,” he said.

[beaver2.0]

Is it just me or is Weld squandering his chance?  If he's serious about beating Trump he should be out there giving interviews daily and getting his name recognition up.

[Trump v. Wong Kim Ark]

Is it just me or is Weld squandering his chance?  If he's serious about beating Trump he should be out there giving interviews daily and getting his name recognition up.

I haven’t heard anything out of him in over a month.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Is it just me or is Weld squandering his chance?  If he's serious about beating Trump he should be out there giving interviews daily and getting his name recognition up.

If he's serious about beating Trump, he should just do everything he can to support the eventual Democratic nominee for President, rather than launch a longshot bid to unseat him in the primary which is going nowhere.

[AltWorlder]

What I want to know if Kasich, Hogan, Sanberg, and Vague might run. Gotta love these side shows.

[The Other Castro]

Weld is officially running.

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1117895736346021889

[GAProgressive]

Local press is convinced that Abrams will run.

[Mr. Morden]

There was filming for a Spanish language ad for Biden over the weekend, but it’s not clear if it was actually commissioned by Biden’s team itself or just a pro-Biden PAC:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/15/biden-spanish-language-ad-1276733

In the run-up to his expected presidential campaign announcement, former Vice President Joe Biden’s supporters cut a Spanish-language ad in South Florida over the weekend emphasizing healthcare, education and his biography.

The Saturday film shoot was a hushed affair — paid local actors signed non-disclosure agreements promising not to discuss the job. But some posted images on social media of the Fort Lauderdale commercial anyway, prompting a flurry of emails warning of legal exposure and requesting that those involved delete any images of the shoot and not talk to the media about it.

“We are in a hot mess with campaign and client because someone leaked footage,” read a Monday email to the actors obtained by POLITICO. The email surmised that the footage was from “some moms taking photo/video of their kids while they were being filmed.”

Biden’s spokesman, Bill Russo, said his team “wouldn’t comment on that” when asked Monday about the commercial shoot. It was unclear who was behind the commercial, whether it was Biden, his American Possibilities political committee or another group.

Also:

Biden is expected to announce after Easter Sunday — offers have been accepted by prospective campaign staffers and a state chairman is being lined up. But supporters caution that nothing is final until the former vice president gives the final word.

[Mr. Morden]

Both Biden and Kerry were in South Carolina today for services for Fritz Hollings.  Kerry implied that a 2020 run is still on the table for him, and that he'd be influenced by whether Biden jumps in or not:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/16/us/politics/biden-hollings-funeral.html

Mr. Kerry acknowledged that he had given some consideration to making a 2020 presidential bid of his own, but he said: “I want to see what Joe is going to do.”

[Mr. Morden]

Axios says Moulton was spotted in MA taping what's thought to be a presidential announcement video:

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-seth-moulton-399b00bd-5429-4696-aec4-4a0d95ad6049.html

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) was spotted in his hometown of Marblehead, Mass., taping for a presidential announcement that's expected within a week, according to a source close to Moulton.

The big picture: Moulton's key issues will be foreign policy, national security and defense. Moulton was also spotted taping recently in Vegas, where he held three meetings with veterans.

[JG]

Axios says Moulton was spotted in MA taping what's thought to be a presidential announcement video:

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-seth-moulton-399b00bd-5429-4696-aec4-4a0d95ad6049.html

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) was spotted in his hometown of Marblehead, Mass., taping for a presidential announcement that's expected within a week, according to a source close to Moulton.

The big picture: Moulton's key issues will be foreign policy, national security and defense. Moulton was also spotted taping recently in Vegas, where he held three meetings with veterans.

Who asked for this?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Axios says Moulton was spotted in MA taping what's thought to be a presidential announcement video:

https://www.axios.com/2020-presidential-election-seth-moulton-399b00bd-5429-4696-aec4-4a0d95ad6049.html

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) was spotted in his hometown of Marblehead, Mass., taping for a presidential announcement that's expected within a week, according to a source close to Moulton.

The big picture: Moulton's key issues will be foreign policy, national security and defense. Moulton was also spotted taping recently in Vegas, where he held three meetings with veterans.

Who asked for this?

He and Ryan realized they torpedoed their chances of ever moving up in leadership by challoPelosi, so this is their only shot at higher office.

[Mr. Morden]

Moulton will be in NH next week, as part of what'll presumably be his campaign rollout:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2019/04/17/seth-moulton-seaside-video-shoot-could-mean-decision-enter-race-imminent/R3Awg3P4CIvFAJcLsEFFGM/story.html

The Globe has obtained a photo appearing to show Moulton taping what could be an announcement video with a film crew in Marblehead, the North Shore town where Moulton grew up.
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In addition to the filming, Moulton will also speak at the Politics & Eggs breakfast in New Hampshire next week, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics announced Wednesday.
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When asked about the photo, Moulton spokesman Matt Corridoni simply repeated that Moulton planned to make a decision on whether to run for president by the end of April.

Looks like Moulton's Politics & Eggs event will be on Wednesday of next week:

https://twitter.com/katielannan/status/1118516605909127169

[Mr. Morden]

This story says that by the time Moulton speaks in NH next Wednesday morning, "he is expected to be a candidate":

https://www.wcvb.com/article/rep-seth-moulton-expected-to-enter-presidential-race-early-next-week/27182045

While Fox News says the announcement "could come as early as Monday":

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/moulton-likely-to-announce-2020-run-early-next-week

Meanwhile, here's the latest on Biden:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/17/politics/biden-aide-hill-democrats-2020/index.html

A top aide to former Vice President Joe Biden met with Democrats on Capitol Hill on Wednesday to remind them of Biden's work in the 2018 midterm elections in a not-so-subtle nod to the 2020 race ahead.

"Everything is going ahead as scheduled," Greg Schultz, who is poised to run Biden's expected 2020 presidential campaign, said, according to a participant in the room.

Biden is close to making an announcement about his plans for 2020, which could come as soon as next week.

[Mr. Morden]

McAuliffe will reportedly announce his decision in a few hours:

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/17/politics/terry-mcauliffe-2020-interview/index.html

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe will announce whether he will run for president in 2020 on Wednesday during an exclusive interview with CNN's Chris Cuomo at 9 p.m. ET.

His decision will end months of speculation around whether the Virginia Democrat would enter the 2020 field.

[Shilly]

Looks like McAuliffe is out.

https://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-ex-virginia-gov-mcauliffe-rule-2020-230656357--election.html

[Mr. Morden]

Looks like McAuliffe is out.

https://news.yahoo.com/ap-sources-ex-virginia-gov-mcauliffe-rule-2020-230656357--election.html

Details from that story:

Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe won't run for president in 2020, according to two people familiar with calls he made Wednesday to allies.

McAuliffe had flirted with a Democratic presidential run for months, popping up in early voting states late last year and campaigning with candidates in Iowa and New Hampshire, but ultimately decided against mounting a bid, according to the two people, who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity to avoid pre-empting McAuliffe's announcement.

[Mr. Morden]

McAuliffe confirmed that he's not running in the CNN interview:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-mcauliffe/former-virginia-governor-mcauliffe-decides-to-not-enter-2020-presidential-race-idUSKCN1RU063

[Blue3]

Good.



If the remaining 7 speculated-about "major" candidates all declare, to join the existing 19 "major" candidates... we will have a candidate for each letter of the alphabet. At least that could be one way to keep tracking of them all

[Mr. Morden]

de Blasio:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernies-former-chief-strategist-tad-devine-talks-to-bill-de-blasio-about-2020-run

Tad Devine, one of the primary strategists involved with Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-VT) 2016 presidential bid, met with New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio about a possible 2020 bid last weekend.

Devine said he had not been planning to partake in the primary race after his firm parted ways with Sanders’ 2020 operation shortly after the Senator announced his second bid. But de Blasio’s staff reached out about having a meeting and he obliged, meeting with the mayor and his wife Chirlane McCray at Gracie Mansion this past Saturday to discuss what a presidential run would take.

Devine, who did not attempt to keep his dinner secret, cautioned that the mayor was not on the cusp of making a decision. But he said that he was impressed by both de Blasio and his wife and would be “very happy” to talk to him about a potential role should he ultimately decide on a run. He said that he came away from the conversation believing that the Mayor had a story to tell.

Moulton:

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/04/18/seth-moulton-presidential-campaign-1280465

Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton has built a presidential campaign-in-waiting ahead of an anticipated launch next week, making preparations from designating a campaign manager and other senior staff to commissioning a new logo.

Moulton, an Iraq War veteran serving his third term in Congress, recently taped an announcement video in his hometown of Marblehead. The video, according to a Democrat with knowledge of Moulton’s staffing and announcement plans, was directed by writer and producer Lance Khazei.

He has also used a respected Democratic polling firm for pre-campaign research: The Mellman Group, which has consulted for Moulton since his upset victory over a scandal-plagued Democratic incumbent in a 2014 primary in Massachusetts. The polling firm has not officially been retained for a presidential campaign, but it conducted surveys and focus groups in a handful of early primary states, including New Hampshire and South Carolina, that suggested presidential primary voters have not made up their minds and that Democrats could be energized by a young candidate, according to the person with knowledge of Moulton’s preparations.

Moulton has also built out a senior staff. Jim Matheson, the interim director of Moulton’s PAC and a senior lecturer at Harvard Business School, is set to be the campaign manager at launch time. Michelle Kleppe, who’s served as the executive director of Moulton’s Serve America PAC, is also positioned to be involved in a campaign as a political adviser.

[Eastern Washington Democrat]

I talked to Biden's former chief economist today (he gave a talk at my high school).  He told me he couldn't discuss specifics but mentioned the announcement would come in "Weeks not months."  

[Can't Bear]

https://www.apnews.com/b6aeb6972c584a34a79df40b1c39ead2
Biden expected to launch presidential campaign next week

Former Vice President Joe Biden is expected to announce he’s running for president next week.

That’s according to three people with knowledge of Biden’s plans.

The announcement is expected as early as Wednesday and would cap months of deliberation over his political future.

[Mr. Morden]

More Biden:

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/04/joe-biden-running-president/587560/

Joe Biden is running. The former vice president will make his candidacy official with a video announcement next Wednesday, according to people familiar with the discussions who have been told about them by top aides.
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Senior staff for the campaign is set. Interviews for new aides have quietly been going on over the past two weeks, and some hires have been made. Calls have gone out to key donors. A wider circle has been told to stand by. There’s a lot to get ready, including how to build a series of smaller campaign events that would showcase his strength in retail politics by playing up his interactions with voters—and counter the women who questioned those interactions when they came forward earlier this month.

Getting in next week will give Biden more than two months to fundraise ahead of the next quarterly reporting deadline at the end of June, and keeps him on track for the post-Easter timeline his top advisers have been projecting for the past few weeks.