New South Wales State Election, 23 March 2019

[morgieb]

Can't believe a thread wasn't started yet!

This looks a very interesting election. On paper the Liberals have a pretty large lead, having won the last election by 9 points and the nature of the swing meaning that the traditional marginals are held by the Liberals on some very big margins.

But the most recent term has led to a lot of discontent amongst pretty much everyone. Firstly was WestConnex. Though the project is fairly popular citywide, it has seen a lot of local anger being directed at it because it's a big road project going through a very "champagne socialist" area. I think a lot of the hyperventilating about it is NIMBYism, though I do question the economic benefits of certain parts of the project.

Then we saw the greyhound ban. This was later reversed after a backbench revolt from the Nationals (and also losing a key byelection to the Shooters) but the damage from that as well as the council amalgamations were enough to annoy the hell out of rural voters....which while conservative tend to be quite anti-incumbent and in many cases perfectly happy to vote for a good Independent.

Then there's the stadium rebuilds. Essentially what is going on here is that the sporting stadiums in New South Wales are in a pretty ordinary state in terms of purpose, facilities, etc. and all funding towards it is done by state governments. However instead of redeveloping the stadiums to get them up to scratch (which would probably only cost like $100-200m, or at least it should....) they are rebuilding them from scratch, which costs about $2 billion. Worse for the Liberals this is effective ammunition for Labor to talk about government waste, and how it is not going towards schools and hospitals and the like. The Liberals have flip-flopped hard on this one, but because of Alan Jones's influence the time since the Sydney Football Stadium has been last redeveloped they are still going forward there. Labor are either proposing to stop demolition if it hasn't already been demolished, or alternatively force the SCGT to rebuild it if it's already been demolished.

We also have issues with Sydney's entertainment. Essentially a few years ago there were a number of one-punch attacks which led to serious injury or death and the then O'Farrell government proposed lockout laws (so venues close at 3am and people can no longer get into pubs/clubs that aren't the Star after 1:30am in the CBD). While this has curbed violence in the CBD only in Kings Cross has it not been matched by a rise in violence in other areas. Worse, it has also led to lots of places in Sydney going under and a general downturn in the nightlife of Sydney.

As well as this we have a few scandals with festivals. Essentially, we have seen a number of drug overdose deaths at music festivals, because of either taking tainted pills or too many to hide from cops. While the left is suggesting pill testing to let users know exactly what they are taking, the Liberals are ignoring this and going for harder regulations at festivals. This has led to a number of music festivals close down and the events themselves not being as fun as what they were.

And let's not forget the omnishambles that is the current federal government. From scandals to climate change denying to pretty much everything, they are toxic enough that it will drag down the current state government.

So yeah, this is going to be interesting. I see a hung parliament, who's in power though is a trickier question.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

Who do you reckon gets the balance of power in the Legislative Council?

Does Leyonhjelm win a seat? Considering he's quit federal politics to run in this election you'd think he must rate his chances.

[IceAgeComing]

You only need 3% state-wide to guarantee an upper house seat (and in reality factoring in transfers and exhausted votes) so I'd give him a pretty good chance although he got a very bad ballot paper placement which is a big factor when you consider the size of the things.  Same thing that sadly guarantees that Latham will be victorious.

[lilTommy]

The most recent March Polling had the TPP 50% a piece ALP and L/NP

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_New_South_Wales_state_election

Who would this benefit; would we likely see the ALP win more districts or L/NP?

[Velasco]

TWho would this benefit; would we likely see the ALP win more districts or L/NP?

Apparently Labor needs more than 50% to win more districts than the Coalition

http://theconversation.com/nsw-election-likely-to-be-close-and-mark-latham-will-win-an-upper-house-seat-113549

Since the 2015 election, the Coalition has lost Orange, to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, and Wagga Wagga, to an independent at byelections. The Coalition enters this election with 52 seats, and would need to lose six seats to lose its majority. Labor needs to gain 13 seats for an outright majority. If Labor gains ten seats and the Greens hold their three seats, a Labor/Greens government could be formed.

On the pendulum, the Coalition holds six seats by 3.2% or less. The current poll swing is about 4.8% to Labor, so Labor would be expected to win these six seats, depriving the Coalition of a majority unless they gain a seat held by a crossbencher.

Labor’s difficulty is that the Coalition has no seats held between a 3.2% and a 6.2% margin. On the pendulum, Labor would need a 6.7% swing to gain the ten seats needed for a Labor/Greens majority. This suggests Labor needs to win the two party vote by a 52.4-47.6 margin.

I'd like to know how the radicalization of Mark Latham occurred and when. Was it a sudden conversion or a gradual process?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'd like to know how the radicalization of Mark Latham occurred and when. Was it a sudden conversion or a gradual process?

I'd recommend just reading the entirety of his wiki bio. It is... an adventure.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

From the Wiki on Mark Latham

2013 federal election
On 14 August 2013, during the election federal campaign, Latham was interviewed by the 3AW radio station in Melbourne. He caused controversy when asked to comment on Liberal Party leader Tony Abbott's characterisation of Fiona Scott, the Liberal candidate for Lindsay, as having "sex appeal". Latham responded:

It showed very bad judgment, it showed that he's got low standards. I've had a good look at Fiona Scott [...] and I don't think she's got sex appeal at all. [... Abbott] must have had the beer goggles on because she's not that good of a sort, and I'd rather have an aspirant for the prime ministership who's a good judge when it comes to checking out the good sorts.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Bump

[morgieb]

Some last minute predictions:

Sydney:

* East Hills looked an automatic flip early doors, but it appears the Liberals made a sharp candidate choice. As well as that the general lack of swing in Sydney and some demographic change here means that the Liberals seem optimistic here. I still think an open seat that marginal is basically an automatic flip, but we'll see. Labor gain but without any optimism.
* Coogee is probably gone, however. The Liberals have been struggling in similar areas throughout the country and the light rail fiasco has to be biting. Maybe the Liberals could hold on if Labor get an ordinary run with Greens preferences, but that seems a bit doubtful.
* Penrith could go either way, but I suspect the Liberals barely hang on. Close though.
* Heathcote looks close, but I'm not quite sure there's enough room to move for Labor to flip it.
* Oatley doesn't seem too likely. Coure is reasonably popular, the seat's margin is more like what it 'should' be (in contrast to a few other seats) and the "Asians with PhD's" scandal will bite hard here.
* Holsworthy, Seven Hills, Parramatta, Mulgoa, Riverstone, Ryde - all potentially marginal but probably not happening this time around. There's room for a swing though and if Labor win a majority (or go close to it) at least the first couple will flip.
* Camden is an open seat that has been held by Labor recently, but it's not happening this time around. Perhaps there'll be a swing, though.

Every other Sydney Liberal seat looks safe.

* Strathfield would be a worry if the scandal hits Labor's vote. I still think Labor hold given the double sophmore surge but this could easily be a 'cold sick' loss if Labor underperform.
* Kogarah might see a reverse swing but a seat that Labor hold on 7% isn't flipping in this election.
* Prospect will not be close this time around.
* Granville OTOH might be. Issa still has a decent reputation here which could keep the swing down despite it being a natural Labor seat.

Every other Sydney Labor seat looks safe.

Non-Sydney

* Lismore is gone. The popular sitting MP is retiring, the swing is on outside of Sydney and Labor picked an excellent candidate. I suppose the CSG factor had an impact on the swing here last year, but even then this seat is a Labor one federally.
* Upper Hunter looks a probable flip, the only question is whether there's much more of a swing left given it's a traditional Nationals area. SFF could be a factor too, though probably not actually winning the seat.
* I actually think the Nats hang onto Monaro. It will be close but Barilaro's higher profile will help in an incumbent-friendly area and Labor no longer have Steve Whan's personal vote to rely on.
* Tweed probably flips too, though it'll be close.
* Goulburn is 50/50. Ultimately I don't quite think there's enough room for a swing, but it being an open seat can't be optimistic for the Liberals.
* Bega again looks close. Unlike a few regional seats Labor have room to move here too. Probably not quite a flip though.
* Kiama looks surprisingly safe. Credit to Ward for holding onto quite a marginal seat so easily.
* Bathurst is apparently close for such a safe seat on paper, but Labor have a lot of room to move here unlike most regional seats. Nats are probably safe enough though.
* Murray is a National/SFF race. Ultimately I doubt the SFF can pick up a seat they didn't win in a by-election in the general election, but we'll see.
* Barwon OTOH looks very ripe for a flip. Given it's an open seat I expect the SFF to pick it up.
* Orange was barely won by the SFF in the by-election. Will be interesting but I favour incumbency to help the SFF here.
* Wagga Wagga should stay Independent. McGirr won easily in the by-election and is popular.
* Coffs Harbour is interesting. Open seat and a strong Independent challenge. Probable National hold though, the new Nats candidate is an impressive one apparently.
* Clarence would usually be safe National, but the previous MP is recontesting as an SFF candidate. I think the Nats hold but the SFF percentage will be interesting to see.
* Dubbo has a strong Independent challenge, but I'd probably marginally favour the Nats here.

I think the others are "probably" safe, but we'll see.

Non-Sydney Labor seats:

* The Entrance is close, but I'd probably favour Labor here.
* Gosford doesn't seem too close, the local MP is popular and won the by-election here easily.
* Port Stephens margin looks a bit friendly for Labor, but it's unlikely a 5% seat in 2015 will flip in this climate.

Rest are safe I suspect.

[Deep Dixieland Senator, Muad'dib (OSR MSR)]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/results


Implications for the federal election in Sydney
https://twitter.com/i/status/1109389754284408832

Broadcaster Alan Jones called the One Nation results an "extraordinary personal triumph" for Mr Latham.

In announcing his candidacy, Mr Latham identified immigration, congestion, overdevelopment and electricity prices as issues of focus.

He also hit out at "political correctness" and "divisive identity politics" during an interview with Alan Jones on 2GB last year, and has said he wants to end the "spiteful discrimination against men and boys now evident in Australian public life".

He has also proposed cutting Australia's immigration rate.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/mark-latham-wins-nsw-upper-house-seat/10923460

[Walmart_shopper]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/nsw/2019/results


Implications for the federal election in Sydney
https://twitter.com/i/status/1109389754284408832

Broadcaster Alan Jones called the One Nation results an "extraordinary personal triumph" for Mr Latham.

In announcing his candidacy, Mr Latham identified immigration, congestion, overdevelopment and electricity prices as issues of focus.

He also hit out at "political correctness" and "divisive identity politics" during an interview with Alan Jones on 2GB last year, and has said he wants to end the "spiteful discrimination against men and boys now evident in Australian public life".

He has also proposed cutting Australia's immigration rate.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/mark-latham-wins-nsw-upper-house-seat/10923460

Australia is America in a decade.

[TheSaint250]

The most curious thing to me is SFF’s performance. Why is the party doing so well?

Furthermore, if the Coalition comes up short, will they create a minority government, or will they seek a coalition or confidence and supply deal with SFF or some independents?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The most curious thing to me is SFF’s performance. Why is the party doing so well?

Furthermore, if the Coalition comes up short, will they create a minority government, or will they seek a coalition or confidence and supply deal with SFF or some independents?

The Nationals are always very vulnerable to bring coup'd by independents, given their status as subordinates; and the SFF candidates made very professional runs in kitchen sink issues like healthcare. (Indeed, the tubthumping culture war stuff you'd associate with them seems to come from the nationals themselves these days - it seems to be Barnaby Joyce's main strategy for saving the party)

[Velasco]

I'd like to know how the radicalization of Mark Latham occurred and when. Was it a sudden conversion or a gradual process?

I'd recommend just reading the entirety of his wiki bio. It is... an adventure.

Fascinating biography

Furthermore, if the Coalition comes up short, will they create a minority government, or will they seek a coalition or confidence and supply deal with SFF or some independents?

no

I checked the ABC site right now and the projected result is Coalition 48, Labor 36, Greens 3, SFF 3 and Independents 3.

So Gladys Berejiklian doesn't need to make deals with the crossbench.

The Nationals are not the kind of party that I'd support, but for some reason I'd like that they survive. Possibly it's because agrarian or rural based parties have became an oddity in erstern countries