1988: Paul Simon vs HW Bush

[Pericles]

How would Illinois Senator Paul Simon have done if he'd won the Democratic nomination in 1988? Could he have been a more effective opponent to HW Bush than Dukakis, or would his brand of liberalism have been unappealing in 1988? What are your thoughts?

[Lechasseur]

I think the result with Simon would have been roughly the same as the one with Dukakis

[Fuzzy Bear]

Simon would have done better.  He'd have carried IL, MD, CT, and would have contended for CA, OH, MI, as well as winning the other Dukakis states (MA, NY, WV, WA, OR, IA, WI, and HI).  Simon wouldn't have had the Willie Horton issue on which Dukakis got creamed (in part because of his slowness to attack back).  Additionally, Simon (who was something of a nerd) was still a guy who could respond back with pep and self-assurance, without being the managerial type that Dukakis seemed to be.

Dukakis only lost by 7 points.  Simon would have pressed Dukakis much more strongly, and may have even won with a few breaks.

[mianfei]

Simon would have done better.  He'd have carried IL, MD, CT, and would have contended for CA, OH, MI, as well as winning the other Dukakis states (MA, NY, WV, WA, OR, IA, WI, and HI).  Simon wouldn't have had the Willie Horton issue on which Dukakis got creamed (in part because of his slowness to attack back).  Additionally, Simon (who was something of a nerd) was still a guy who could respond back with pep and self-assurance, without being the managerial type that Dukakis seemed to be.

Dukakis only lost by 7 points.  Simon would have pressed Dukakis much more strongly, and may have even won with a few breaks.

Given the farm crisis, and that he was morally fairly conservative for a Democrat, if Simon carried all the states you listed, he would probably have also carried the crisis-affected normally GOP states of MO, SD and MT, and come close in ND and even KS.

I have often looked for the possibility of 1988, with a less Northeastern Democratic candidate than Dukakis, being an 1896-type “deviating election”.

I observed that if Simon carried all the Dukakis states, all the states you added, plus Missouri, Montana and South Dakota, he would still have lost by 262 votes to 276.